Rebane's Ruminations
November 2026
S M T W T F S
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930  

ARCHIVES


OUR LINKS


YubaNet
White House Blog
Watts Up With That?
The Union
Sierra Thread
RL “Bob” Crabb
Barry Pruett Blog

  • George Rebane

    George Friedman’s much anticipated book came out a couple of weeks ago.  I was on Amazon’s waiting list for it, and got it almost instantly.  RR readers will recognize Friedman as the founder and editor-in-chief of Stratfor, the prestigious private intelligence service on all the important happenings in the world.  Along with the White House, I am a Stratfor subscriber 😉

    Next100Years The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century is a fascinating book on a number of counts, and also a bit of a disappointment.  Let me say from the outset, this book is definitely worth a read.  If you get nothing else from his prognostications, you do get a thorough summary of the last two century’s geopolitical history of the world.  And thrown in are the geopolitical interests and strategies of the major nation-states on the world’s stage.  Friedman quickly makes and substantiates the point that for each nation-state such interests and strategies are classical in the sense that they endure with time and through many regimes and types of governance.  Reviewing a country’s history and its current actions in that light brings a new and useful perspective to a student of geopolitics.

    For example, Friedman points out that we are a young and “barbaric” country, and contrary to what we have been told about America’s century being over, this will actually be the century of the “American Age”.  We learn that America is and will remain for the next hundred years the asymmetric behemoth of world power.  America’s interest is to maintain this position through a strategy of destabilizing any coalition of countries that forms to challenge America’s primacy.  America will do this using both its economic and military power.  The strategy does not require us to win wars, in the old sense, merely to play our challengers down to an expensive draw where they can no longer afford to challenge us.  This has been our strategy since the end of WW2 as most clearly illustrated by the history of the Cold War.  However, our citizenry does not understand this, which leads to all kinds of opportunities for our politicians to pander the conveniently ignorant.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    There’s only so much one can say for living in a winter wonderland.  And after a day or two, much of it is unprintable.  In our part of the country what adds to the sense of wonder and adventure is a big power outage.  Our power went out yesterday morning and PG&E’s recorded lady told us not to worry, their crews were working hard and power would return soon.  And about twelve hours later it did come on for about four minutes.  At our house a short burst of jubilation, and then ‘Oh s@#t!’.   Looks like someone made a boo-boo in bringing the various circuits back on line, and a distribution transformer (one of the big ones behind the chain link fence) blew.  That’s just my guess, but when we called back to the recorded lady, she was reading from a new page.  No more hope, no more ‘we’re working hard’, only that suddenly “equipment was not available” and that we should get ready for an indefinite outage.

    Kohler12KW Our house is rigged for these little interludes.  A couple of years ago we installed a propane powered Kohler 12KW generator, and after brushing off the snow, that little puppy started right up with the push of a button.  It has been making things bearable, consuming about 2 gallons per hour.  But given the dour warning from the PG&E lady, we did turn it off last night, went to bed early, and counted on our love to keep us warm.  Well, truth be told, we did ease the burden on that sentiment somewhat with a very large comforter filled with Canadian goose down.  The temperature in the house went down to 53F overnight, but in the morning the Kohler again responded to the ‘start’ button augmented with little silent prayer.  The PG&E lady was no more hopeful today.  I started up the fireplace before breakfast, and soon we’ll be huddled around the fire making Valentines cards for each other.  It’ll snow again later today, and tomorrow the real duzer is due.  So, how’s by you?

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    A trillion here, a trillion there – to an innumerate citizenry all these zeros mean nothing.  They are told that it is all needed for an economic ‘stimulus’ whose workings no one knows or will attempt to explain.  The only thing you need to know about the stimulus is that it is “necessary”, to which the President adds that we shouldn’t quibble about the “details” to delay its passage.  (see ‘Exactly How Does the Stimulus Work?’ by Henninger today)  And he may be right since the main purpose of the stimulus is to assuage that something is being done.  But what about the trillions?

    Dollar Well, the trillions don’t really matter that much any more because it isn’t denominated in real money.  It’s really going to be paid off in what is known as fiat money – Monopoly money that only has value as long as we keep pretending.  And a lot of folks these days are beginning to see the light.  Indiana last month introduced a revolutionary bill – ‘Indiana Honest Money Act’ (SB453 here) – that the MSM carefully ignored.  The bill would allow Indiana residents to conduct all state business in a “medium of currency based on gold and silver”.  People in other states (e.g. Virginia, New Hampshire) are beginning to make similar moves.

    The US Constitution is specific about what our legal tender should be – gold and silver (Art 1, Sec 10, Cl 1 here).  The Founders were all aware of the historical consequences of governments that start debasing the public’s currency with play money, and wrote a prohibition against that into our Constitution.  Almost all states’ constitutions echo that prescription.  Then came the Federal Reserve System and soon the Constitution took another body blow to our wallets.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    Snow

    The French have a saying, ‘Look (search) for the woman’ when one talks of a man having achieved substance, means, or notoriety.  There can usually be found a female who was material to the advancement, success, or survival of a celebrated man.  Well, I’m not claiming to be any of them, but I suspect that the saying still applies to the plebes who’ve at least made it part of the way.  This evening in the middle of a driving snowstorm we had to take the trash barrel down to the road.

    Our house is about a hundred feet above that road up a sloping driveway that is almost 1,000 feet long.  We usually take the trash cans down in Jo Ann’s front wheel drive van.  I cast my hubris ladened and expert eye on the situation outside, and pronounced that we could do it in the van.  Jo Ann prudently advised that we take my Grand Cherokee instead – this beast has been known to climb over anything that doesn’t float all of its wheels.  In my wisdom (qualified below) I pronounced, with all the male certitude I could muster, ‘Nah, your van can make it.  Let’s do it.’  She persisted, ‘I don’t know, I’d take the Jeep.’ – I prevailed.

    Soon we were in the van with the trash can heading down the driveway under about six inches of snow, and a small voice inside my head said, ‘Oh goddam!’ – I kept a stiff upper lip and kept going down hill since there was no turning back.  Jo Ann kept a prudent but noticably smug silence.

    We got to the place by the row of mailboxes where the trash cans always line up dutifully on Wednesday night, and placed ours out there as the first and only one.  The snow was coming down hard and the road was really covered with snow.  The two cars that went by were driving very slowly.

    I was able to back up the van and turn it around, but as I started into the uphill grade of the driveway, I stalled with both wheels spinning.  No problem, they’ll soon eat their way onto solid stuff and we’ll be back up the hill following our old tracks just made – no problemo.  Mucho problemo.  After a few more tries, it was clear that any continued attempts would quickly eat up the tenuous credibility I have attempted to lay in place over the decades of our marriage.

    I decided that a timely capitulation was all I could muster in the quickly dimming light.  I heard myself say, ‘I’m a dumb ass’, and it sounded about on the mark.  I managed to pull the van into a safe parking spot and we got out with the walking sticks we have in the car for such adventures.  Then I noticed that I’m wearing my open Birkenstocks while another brushed off piece of wisdom echoes in what I pridefully have called my mind – ‘Don’t you want to put on some solid shoes?’  At this point double dumb ass would have been more on the mark, but the male ego can only take so much self-flaggelation.

    We had a brisk walk through the snow that had almost covered the van’s tracks.  My feet were cold and wet by the time we got back into the house.  The folks who make those world famous Birkenstocks apparently believe that their customers know when to wear them and when not.  It turned out that that assessment at times may be overly optimistic.  (The attentive Reader may detect the returning footprints by the car tracks in the photo.)

    I hereby submit that ‘cherche la femme’ also applies to every man who has made an utter fool of himself, and was advised otherwise by an attending and more prescient female.  Humbly, I offer this insight to the world as Rebane’s Corollary.

     

  • George Rebane

    ERC released its draft of the Nevada County ‘Comprehensive Economic Development Master Plan’ (pdf 271KB ) prepared for the county BOS.  I guess it’s now intended for broad distribution and comment since Jeff Pelline has posted a review of it on his blog.  The plan is well written and makes it clear that we will continue to expend resources to attract manufacturers to our neck of the woods.

    Manufacturing I am on record about the prospects of including manufacturing (of stuff) as a major contributing factor to our county’s economic future – I believe efforts in that direction to be misdirected.  To be clear, I’m a proponent of information intensive businesses and believe that’s a viable direction of growth.  However, my own noodling on the matter continues to recommend the development of tourism and retirement.  These two always seem to pop up as the major clean cash importers that play to our strong suits here in the mountains.  In the plan neither of these play a visible role in our economic future.

    (more…)

  • [This piece was submitted by John ‘Red’ Burke, branch manager of the Grass Valley office of First Priority Financial – formerly Burke Home Loans.  John is a long time real estate finance professional who follows closely what is happening in this keystone sector of the national economy.  I have included a figure showing the magnitude of the adjustable rate mortgage reset schedule since January 2007. gjr]

    ARMresetSched

    John ‘Red’ Burke
     
    This is an economics and mortgage market analysis for the January period.  Some of my take-aways are:
     
    1) The general public doesn’t appreciate how close we came to a complete financial meltdown:
     
    The Fed stepped up immediately and averted what could well have been the depression scenario that many feared. Had short-term corporate borrowing remained frozen, there would have been the potential for massive job losses as payroll funding would have been unavailable.
     
    2)  The employment market is UGLY:
     
    Weekly unemployment claims are averaging around 550,000, the highest level since the early 1980s.
     
    3)  Consumers are hunkering DOWN:
     
    Consumers have established a solid trend line of declining credit demand with credit balances falling for three of the last four months. This has been evident as the end-of-year retail sales data were the worst since 1970 (using chain store sales). If this shift is a sign that consumers really are transitioning from a mindset of consumption based on access to credit to a mindset of savings and consumption balance, then the recovery of the economy is likely to be slow irrespective of any stimulus.   The bleeting masses, when forced understand how to balance a budget (unlike our legislators).

    4)  Buyers have to actually QUALIFY for their loans using government tax documents.  This is bad news for the Self-Employed and Under-the-Table people who were gaming the tax system.  I would estimate that historically 50% of our Nevada County clients needed to state income to qualify for a loan.  Typically, our analysis of their income coming into their business & personal checking accounts validated their capacity to debt service a mortgage payment despite what their tax returns showed.

    The homeownership rate has also been coming down and there has been some argument that by lowering mortgage rates to 4.5 percent enough new borrowers can be brought into the market to return the homeownership rate back to its peak of over 69 percent. However, that assumes that the credit and house price bubbles did not artificially inflate the homeownership rate. In fact, our internal calculations indicate that the actual number of new homeowners created by the rate decline will be very small.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    ObamaPressConf President Obama started his first White House press conference last night in classic style.  His opening remarks were delivered flawlessly with the Presidential Style knob turned up to ‘Extreme’ – I was impressed.  What he said was highly debatable, but how he said it was definitely not.  This guy is good.

    But then something happened when the teleprompters were turned off.  The sonorous voice was still there, but now it came out hesitatingly with all the ‘aahs’, ‘ers’, and ‘uhs’ that the rest of us use when we have trouble thinking faster than our mouth can speak.  And then his eyes lost the piercing authoritative glint that had just been sweeping the room full of reporters like a tracking radar.  Now they reverted to a more tired and withdrawn look, deeper in their sockets, closer to the brain that was supposed to produce the answers.  The eyes told of the hectic schedule he has been maintaining trying to comprehend, convince, cajole on issues that are new to both him and Congress.

    (more…)

  • [The email below was forwarded by a correspondent.  I have edited it for readability.  Here is a link for more on the status of HR45 and a link to its full text.  My own sentiments on the Second Amendment and its seminal importance in the maintenance of our republic were posted here.  Do not believe the hopeful statistic at the bottom of the nearby image, the actual count is over double that as reported in Death by Government, and they do not include the deaths of China’s Cultural Revolution which are yet unavailable and may double that number again. – gjr]

    GunControl Are you ready for the House Bill titled ‘HR 45, Blair Holt Licensing and Record Act of 2009’. It will make it illegal to own a firearm unless it is registered with the database in Washington D.C. As a gun owner you will have to be finger printed, you will be required to provide your DL#, SS#, you must maintain a valid address at all times, submit to mental and physical health records being put on file, you will also be required to file any address changes and any ownership changes even if private sale. Each update will cost $25 and if you fail to comply you will lose your right to own firearms. This bill and its language mirror almost completely one defeated last year in the House of Representatives by soon to be Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. Will the citizenry be as lucky this time?

    Pass this on to everyone who believes in strict Constitutionalism and remember that laws only apply to those who obey them. Criminals by definition and nature do not abide by laws. New laws and restrictions only apply to the law abiding citizen and are not written with the criminal in mind. With guns, it is not about having laws on the books to prosecute individuals, it is about taking guns away from the people so that no one has them in the first place. One last item to note, when assuming power and creating their fascist and communist states, Hitler, Stalin, and Mao were proponents of strong gun laws because a disarmed populace was much easier to control than an armed one. The Kings of old also outlawed weapons of any kind in any region that they conquered to quell the ability of the citizens to rise up against them.

    The Founding Fathers of this Nation understood all of the above and because of this they included the Second Amendment in the Constitution. In fact, they knew that at some point in every society’s life span that the need for the population to arise came about. To this end they made the right to keep and bear arms against a tyrannical state an absolute right that could not be revoked. They did this because the first thing tyrants and despots do is to remove a population’s right to defend itself. When this is done the tyrants have no problem with the destruction of society as we know it.

    Send this on to all true patriots! Protect your Second Amendment.  I further add that you might want to write your Senator & House Rep.

  • George Rebane

    Today’s events boggle the mind – at least the minds of some – but not enough minds to hold back what so many believe to be, perhaps, our country’s biggest mistake to date in this millennium.  Are politicians by nature ignorant or evil?  If some of them conspire to weaken the United States in order to promote a future collectivist world utopia, then most (but not all) would agree that these are evil.  If they are just misapplying historically discredited nostrums in the sincere effort to bring back prosperity, then they are merely ignorant of what has worked and what hasn’t.  But this spectrum also has a middle ground.  What if they are just lining their chances for re-election and kicking the country’s real problems down the road for their successors to suffer or solve?

    CatoAd

    Cato reran their full-page ad in this morning’s WSJ (readable version) countering President Obama’s claim that “there is no disagreement” on this government plan (Full disclosure – Jo Ann and I helped pay for this ad.  Actually, we’re proudly bragging.).  When the liberals are questioned about the efficacy of the $820+ billion stimulus bill – what makes you think it will work?  The instant response is ‘we can’t follow the failed policies of the Bush years, we must do something, and spraying money we don’t have across the countryside is the only thing we know to do’.  The failed policies of the Bush years (and before) have now been dissected twenty ways from Sunday, most recently today by John B. Taylor, Stanford professor of economics, author, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, in the piece ‘How Government Created the Financial Crisis’.  How the ‘failed policies’ response addresses the question of whether this stimulus plan will work is one of the many mind-boggling mysteries that are readily accepted by the sheep as gospel.  Ready, fire, aim!

    Some also take comfort that, in ways unexplained, this stimulus will put us on the path to correct problems such as ‘corporate and investor greed’ and other systemic ills attributed to capitalism, which is judged to be broken by the enlightened left.  A pearl of a response to this entire issue was given by the late Milton Friedman to Phil Donahue in this short video clip (sent to me by Russ Steele of NC Media Watch).    

    I believe that what we are really witnessing in this historic upcoming vote in Congress is the planned or opportunistic inauguration of the long-dreamt Progressive Perpetuity.

    As always, dear Reader, your stubborn ounces do count in the greater scheme of things.  In the least, we can be true to ourselves and not remain silent.  Contact your electeds.

  • [A correspondent sent me the following article on carbon footprinting of ethanol production by D.T. Adolphus that was initially published on the Hemmings eWeekly newsletter.  With minor format editing for readability, I have decided to post the entire article.  It sheds needed light on the important facets of the ethanol issue, and in the process shows how the public is led by the nose to politically motivated but scientifically dubious public policies.  gjr]

    Ethanol Faces Facts
    David Traver Adolphus

    EthanolFuelPump The roots of our ethanol industry are complex, but the EPA’s 2007 Renewable Fuel Standard (1.4MB pdf) has a lot to do with its presence in our gas. RFS required oil companies to develop renewable fuel sources and set minimum standards, which was straightforward enough, but now that President Obama has ordered the EPA to examine the ability of states to establish their own emissions regulations, the game is changing.

    At the same time the feds were passing the RFS, California Governor Schwarzenegger created his state’s Low Carbon Energy Standard, which mandates that new fuels, like ethanol and biodiesel, meet specific greenhouse gas standards and include the total lifetime effects of production. At last count, 11 more states were interested in adopting LCES, which would make it a de facto national standard.

    The challenge is in a change from the way the already-stressed ethanol industry measures their pollution: LCES “compels the EPA to look at both the direct and indirect effects of ethanol in greenhouse gas emissions,” said Brian Jennings, Executive Vice President of the American Coalition for Ethanol, in Agriculture Online. That means attempting to calculate relevant but nearly intangible effects like an increase in Brazilian slash-and-burn agriculture to offset the reduction in the supply of American corn for food, or change in cattle feedlot outgassing when switching from corn to soy feed.

    (more…)

3 comments on ‘The Next 100 Years’