Rebane's Ruminations
November 2026
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  • George Rebane

    Silly me, and here I thought only the feds could tap my cell phone with a court’s permission.  It turns out that literally anyone can do that and more to you and yours.  Check out this YouTube video and then you can google (or bing) ‘cell phone intercept’ to a get a snoot full on this.  Anyone know what, if anything, is being done to put this genie back in the bottle?  Hat tip to a RR reader from the Northwest.

    People Another glimpse across our nation’s Great Divide.  Andrew Howard writes ‘We all benefit to a certain degree from socialism’ in the 2jun09 Union.  He concludes that since we have quietly accepted benefits from “socialist institutions” such as our local police and Social Security, we should then continue to accept the current torrent of liberal add-ons with equal calm.  His logic is mind-boggling, but only to a shrinking fraction of our citizens.  A more advanced view of socialism’s future is proposed by Kevin Kelly ‘The New Socialism: Global Collectivist Society Is Coming Online’ in the June 2009 issue of Wired.  Both ends of this assault decry the blessings of capitalism, and cite its abject failure as the cause of our current financial crisis.  All this while evidence continues to pour in about the role of Congress and the Fed as the co-founders of our recession (for example, here).

    President Obama is cranking up his outreach to the world of Islam according to the NYT blog.  As if we already didn’t understand the Muslim mind that matters (half of them are under 25, and most of those unemployed), Obama is now declaring that we “have to educate ourselves more effectively on Islam.”  This goes along with his diagnosis that America can be considered as “one of the largest Muslim countries in the world.”  At this point it’s time to ask, if our President will not stand up for America, who will?

    Ending on a brighter note, yesterday I attended the Board of Supervisors hearing on the 2009/10 Nevada County budget.  Given what’s going on in Washington and Sacramento, I came away impressed.  Forget the nits, our Supes have been and continue doing a great job.  Bottom line – the proposed county budget will be $185,338,190 and change, it will be balanced in spite of the state reducing county’s revenues by over $11 million, and our $19 million reserve fund will remain intact.  The reserve fund is being maintained and grown for eventual use if the current recession continues beyond two years.  The Supes and CEO have, of course, had to make some staff and service cuts, but they all seem sensible, and the important services are not affected.

  • George Rebane

    UncleSamRedTape Yesterday’s demise of GM bodes ill for low end manufacturing workers, and the service industries that have supported them.  Stratfor’s ‘The Significance of GM’s Bankruptcy’ is illuminating in the statistics it presents.  It turns out that total US employment by carmakers is now about a million workers.  And its parts industry has employed just under 800,000 additional people in manufacturing.  That industry also estimates that each of these jobs gives rise to 4.7 more jobs in “everything from catering to regional banks”.

    But in terms of the US economy, putting all of that together accounted for only 5.54% of total US industrial production.  So cutbacks here don’t have the hyperventilating effect that you hear on the MSM.  We are still the big industrial producer of the world with an output greater than Japan (number two) and China combined.  However, the remaining production is in high-end products like computers, telecommunications, specialized production machinery, aviation, instrumentation, … .  Making cars is now a strictly commodity enterprise that is overwhelmingly dominated by things high tech, like robotics.

    So here we are witnessing more ‘creative destruction’ of companies and jobs that provide little added value to an advanced economy like ours.  Such creative destruction has been going on for decades without much notice by the rank and file, because the requirements for getting a newly created job were pretty much the same as for the one you lost.  Those days are over.

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  • George Rebane

    [This little contribution was motivated by the ongoing debate to nowhere on the various Origin Theories – spot creation, intelligent design, evolution, alien intelligence, … – between atheists of the secular humanist persuasion, and Christian organizations of various stripe – e.g. Discovery Institute, BioLogos Foundation, … .]

    Cosmologos I am a Christian, although the pastors of our church may take issue with that claim – perhaps with some success.  Over the last fifty years or so I have been privileged to witness the debate between secular humanists – firmly wrapped in the mantle of pre-bounded science – and Christians of diverse leanings and backgrounds, each putting forth arguments that range from the sublime to the ridiculous.  It has been quite a show, a show that may soon be coming to an end and leave both sides muttering in their adult beverage of choice.  Perhaps, resolution lies elsewhere.

    Let’s first lay down that well-known observation by the late Arthur C. Clarke –

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

    The astute reader will immediately expand the truth of the above by substituting ‘religion’ for ‘magic’ – both being notions that can be developed without the bounds of reason.  To subsume the above, I offer –

    Once you make the reasonable case that we can (soon) create universes with sentient and sapient life, the proposition that we also exist in a created and evolved cosmos becomes our most compelling Origin Theory.

    Today the secular humanist is wedded beyond divorce to the theology that this is a purposeless (non- or extra-teleological) cosmos, and our Sisyphusian fate is to keep peeling back layer after layer of the causal cosmic onion, ad nauseam.  A more modern and proximal anecdote has the punchline, ‘Oh no you don’t sonny, it’s turtles ALL the way down!’  (The final rejoinder from an old-timer explaining his cosmology to a smart-aleck TV reporter trying to best him with the repeated questions of how the world is supported on the backs of turtles upon turtles as claimed by the old-timer.)

    To deny my proposition would put one in a situation of maximum and unfounded hubris.  In that state we would go forward with the full support of science and apparent reason, setting in motion the creation of an hierarchy of intelligent universes, while continuing to hold that only we are the progenitor gods able to do this.  More specifically, we would be forced to argue/believe that somehow the technological hierarchy that we created below us, could not, for some unexplicable reason, also have been hierarchically applied to us from above.

    In light of this, and if we survive Singularity, I believe that we and our post-human progeny will have the most compelling basis for adopting a position of utter humility and awe on the existence of our own Source. 

     

  • George Rebane

    1954FordVictoria P.J. O’Rourke wrote a wonderful reprise of America’s love affair with the automobile in yesterday’s (30may09) WSJ – ‘The End of Our Affair’.  The WSJ and our local Union are our morning papers that get us through breakfast in the comfortable, old-fashioned format.  Jo Ann and I divvy up the various sections of the two papers, read, trade sections, and gab about what we’re reading.  Mostly what we focus on are the in-depth pieces, features, commentaries, and editorials.  By morning, the news in pulp publications is old hat; we already got that online last night, and woke up to NPR’s version of the world.  So, as the old song says, ‘everything’s up to date in Kansas City’ by the time we’re eating cereal.

    But, as I got about five inches into O’Rourke’s piece, a stable part of my world suffered a sudden jolt, and when the dust settled, it had a new crack in.  PJ had blown it, and blown badly the explanation of horsepower, the notion that was central to his exposition of the American psyche and our love affair with cars.  I mean, it wasn’t a slip of a word or two – he went on and on, telling those who knew what he didn’t.

    Now to me PJ has always been the street-smart, self-effacing, humor wordsmith who underneath was obviously a well-read intellectual.  He could deliver up arcane issues and topics in a secret sauce that made you laugh and at the same time say, ‘Sumbich, I didn’t know that.’  But yesterday he exposed a part that I (and, perhaps, many others) didn’t want exposed, and now we need to recalibrate the man.

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  • George Rebane

    Lemmings Harbingers of the coming wave of city bankruptcies just keep popping up.  No one will have an excuse when we all march into the sunset merrily singing ‘On the Way to Vallejo’.  A recent three-way email exchange with two local leading and knowledgeable citizens – who prefer to remain nameless – started with highlighting the recent WSJ article ‘California Cities Face Bankruptcy Curbs’, and concluded with an informative paragraph on Chapter 9 that covers how municipalities go bankrupt.

    In the exchange, my reaction to the WSJ piece was –

    When I read this last night (all this stuff comes online first), Jo Ann and I had a good laugh.  This is like passing a law saying you can’t die until you get permission from the county coroner.  It doesn’t really matter who gives you permission or not; if you can’t make your payments, you’re broke whether they give you a good housekeeping seal of bankruptcy or not.  A timely declaration of bankruptcy could at least allow you to dispose of, or protect assets in an orderly manner.  Only from the mind of government.

    The exchange concluded with the following explanation from one of the correspondents (reformatted for readability).

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  • George Rebane

    What’s good for General Motors is good for America.  That was ground truth for decades.  And it may still be, now that GM is preparing to announce that it has, with a nudge from the feds, entered Chapter 11 proceedings.  Let’s think this out.

    UncleSamBroke America is broke, it can’t meet its financial obligations without playing Ponzi (or should it now be called Madoff) with all holders of our national debt, and all dependents of future national payoffs.  Today’s young people who faithfully pay into Social Security and other “trust funds” don’t have a prayer of being able to get back any semblance of the buying power that they’re putting in.  But we don’t have to tell them that, and better yet, they don’t seem to mind being ignorant of it.

    But consider the benefits of the US following the ‘too big to fail’ GM into bankruptcy.  If GM is too big to fail, isn’t Uncle Sam?  In a stroke of the pen we could get rid of over $11 trillion (lots of zeros no one counts any more) worth of national debt, and over $80 trillion of promised payouts under all kinds of programs that the Sierra Bravos (that’s NATO alphabet for ‘sleaze bags’ for new RR readers) of Congress put in place.  We’d be clean – out of debt and ready to face the world in a totally “reorganized” manner.

    Reorganize?  Well that’s what Chapter 11 is supposed to have the bankrupt entity do, so it can continue carrying on with its business.  I know, the lawyers among you are shouting that governments don’t do Chapter 11, they do Chapter 9.  OK, so let’s do a federal Chapter 9 – cities across the country will soon be doing it, followed by states that don’t get federalized first (see here).  And take a look at Chapter 9, it’s a short read.

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  • George Rebane

    This morning’s Union contained a letter that I label Exhibit A as to why California is in its current sad state and continues on its current path.  The letter by Patricia Black demonstrates that there is a (large) contingent of Californians who neither recognize nor acknowledge the state’s dire straits.  And any problems the state may have, according to Ms Black, may be solved by raising taxes further on corporations doing business in the state.  Lest we be overly astonished, Ms Black clearly represents the majority view that perennially populates and energizes our legislature in Sacramento with politicians who not only got us here, but tirelessly work to keep us going in the same direction.

    In the meantime, the tea parties continue.  Nevada County has an active chapter of the Tea Party Patriots which just issued a press release (here) the top part of which is shown below.

    NCTPP090527

    Just so you can see a more coherent liberal view of how California got into its financial woes, please take a look at today’s Washington Post op-ed by Harold Meyerson.  He cites the well-worn litany of ‘Prop 13 et. al. made us do it’ by limiting state government’s taxing ability to pay for all the absolutely indispensible spending programs that we have been adding on since the 1980s.  This short piece is well worth reading because it again illuminates the mindset that the growth of government and spending is inevitable (and good), and that the proper way out of all subsequent fiscal difficulties is to raise taxes.

    Hat tip to one of my Washington area spies for the heads up on this.  

  • George Rebane

    TaxBurden Dan Walters of the SacBee has a puzzle – ‘Are California taxes too high or too low?’ – that seems to vex him, and apparently a bunch of his readers.  He concludes that since during the recession we are earning less, we are paying less taxes, and therefore our “tax burden” is actually lower since the state is taking fewer of our dollars.  Before we all start dancing in the streets, maybe we should mull it over a bit.

    I guess a good place to start is with how do taxes burden us.  Well, the simple and correct answer is that if we don’t get to buy what we want or need with our earnings, after the government takes part of it away in taxes, then it’s a burden to us.  However, if our after tax earnings are still enough to accomplish our plans – why we worked to get the money in the first place – then the taxes are not burdensome.  To be sure, we’d still like to keep our loot, but the amount we pay is not really burdensome.  Burden, after all, still means a load ranging from uncomfortable to unbearable.

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  • George Rebane

    PooPumper Obama, other than making good on his promise to change the country into a European socialist basket case (which he didn’t spell out for us), his other promises have proven to be a disappointment, and most intensely so to his own ilk.  The casual observer will point out that, at least, he’s more respected on the international scene than was W.  But that overlooks his steady stream of foreign policy failures and snubs – where I think he’s batting a thousand.  More and more the nation’s First Community Organizer cum President is discovering that there are compelling reasons why things were as he found them in January.  Busted promises aside, feeling good about your own press clippings is a shallow reward.  If you’re seen as an easy roll on the international scene, of course you’ll be lauded as a great leader.  Who in their right mind would then want to tick (spelled with a ‘p’) you off, so that you might start standing up for your country?

    Jeff Ackerman’s column in today’s Union deserves a great big AMEN!  I had a chance to talk to Jeff before last Wednesday’s State of Nevada County luncheon (RR post here), and Jeff’s thinking on the matter of state finances, taxes, and governance did not come as a surprise.  It’s refreshing to have your home town newspaper’s publisher/editor tell people clearly where he stands on issues instead of peddling reader-numbing, middle-of-the-road mush.  Someone once reminded me that the only thing of use you will find in the middle of the road is a yellow stripe.

    [update] ERC issued a press release on how Nevada County businesses and agencies can get at their fair share of stimulation from ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act).  The short but informative press release can be downloaded here.  BTW, it really doesn’t involve any REinvestment since the government is broke, didn’t invest anything in the first place, and is paying for this with freshly printed bills.  But these’ll work just as well as the old ones, as long as you don’t dilly-dally too long in spending them.   

  • George Rebane

    TrainWreck The politicians are betting their jobs and benefits-for-life that you won’t give a big rat’s asset about the information in this post.  To let you do the arithmetic yourself, I’ve put together a little spreadsheet that lets you play with the national numbers.  The whole thing is supposed to scare the you-know-what out of you, but I’m not sure that it will work.  It seems that up until now, we Americans have been made of sterner stuff.  Our usual response to this information is to get back to ‘American Idol’.  And when the spray comes off the fan, we claim that we weren’t told, and demand federal bailouts.  The politicians know our ability to process this stuff and our attention span – that’s how they survive.

    The downloadable spreadsheet ‘Fiscal Disaster Calculator’ is super simple, and about the easiest way for anyone interested to see what the effects of GDP growth rates, aggregate tax rates, and (get this, “risk free”) interest rates are on the approaching economic whirlwind.  If you decide this stuff is too dense for you, at least go stock up on your emergency food, meds, batteries, disaster radios, guns, and grenades.  And then again, you may just put in numbers that paint a future of sweetness and light.

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3 comments on Ruminations – 3jun2009