Rebane's Ruminations
November 2026
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  • George Rebane

    CBO Debt or deficit, what’s the difference?  To the overwhelming majority of voters, not much.  Obama’s promise not to “add one dime to the deficit” snugly pulls the wool over the eyes of these people and almost all journalists.  RR readers know that deficits measure the annual increase in national debt in dollars per year, and the economy impacting metric is debt service cost to GDP ratio – try to find that reported anywhere.  National debt, of course, is just the total dollar sum the government pays interest on.  That interest is also the amount of our annual tribute to the feds that serves only to keep blood out of the gutters for a while longer.

    According to Obama’s own numbers, his programs of hopeful change will insure that our deficits into the indefinite future will be about $1,000,000,000,000 annually which will double our current debt of almost $12,000,000,000,000 in ten years.  The astute reader will not confuse national debt with the $110,000,000,000,000+ of the nation’s total unfunded liabilities.  (I love writing all these zeros; ‘trillions’ has become just another word.)

    So let’s see, Obamacare can hide its unsustainability in the near-term by just shifting the accounting of the deficit.  As we quit spending several hundred billion a year on our mid-east wars, then those ‘saved’ monies can be spent on Obamacare with no increase in the projected deficits as promised.  All while our new nationalized healthcare is taking us down the well-trod European road to lower quality and fewer medical services, longer wait times, and, yes, committees that determine for what kinds of care, especially during anticipated end-of-life, the patient will qualify.

    What most people understood Obama promise last Wednesday was that his brand of socialized medicine would not add one penny to our national debt.  However, that it will most certainly do, and in appalling amounts.  But out of the gate, with the wool firmly over our eyes, we will not see deficits increase beyond their already projected astronomical levels, each with an ever-increasing percent made up of Obamacare shortfalls.  And now you know.

  • George Rebane

    Obama continues making “Depression mistakes”.  Even selected media in Great Britain are beginning to notice (here).  Part of the problem about this wool over the country’s eyes is the myth that FDR did anything other than draw out and deepen the misery of the country during his first two terms.  WW2 was the only 'public works' program that worked.

    Hereabouts there are still ill-informed folks who continue to have no clue on how the public pension process works, and no desire to get educated.  They claim, for instance, that local jurisdictions are the wrong level at which to address the problem; instead we should be taking this up at the state level.  No matter that it is the jurisdictions that set the pension multipliers, and allow/abet gaming the system through job transfers, overtime, purchasing extra time-in-job, and giving late-career raises/promotions.  Locally this has been pointed out by Mike McDaniel in his SESF report (download here) on unfunded liabilities, and, most recently, detailed in my August Union column.  The ignorance of some former community information gatekeepers about all this is still surprising.

    The futility of attempting to centrally plan the operation of large scale systems, like the US of A, is well known to RR readers.  However, so-called smart people are still to blame for attempting to pull of the next version off a centrally planned state.  Here is another view of this from down under. 

    Van Jones “smeared” with truth.  But even the ‘we report, you decide’ Fox News can’t shoot straight on the Van Jones resignation.  This weekend they kept asking the dumb question ‘Was the White House sufficiently thorough in their vetting of the 31 (latest count) czars who directly report to the President?’  Of course it was thorough – the White House has told us that they hired these people specifically because of their expressed socio-political philosophies, and the public stances they took on issues before being employed in the administration.  The correct question that seems to evade these hotshot journalists is ‘What objectives does the White House have for America that requires Obama’s administration to have such people in the saddle?’

  •  George Rebane

    Hensley7sep09  

    John and Sandra Hensley, longtime residents of Nevada County, threw their 30th annual Labor Day lakeside bash on the grounds of their Scotts Flat Reservoir residence.  This pot luck, music, and boating feed has become an community tradition for the Hensley family and friends.  Usually there are a couple of local bands in attendance and people who bring their tooters and twangers to make happy sounds as all settle down for some serious eating and (well, you know).  Some of the more active types even go in or out on the lake, and others do remarkably well at volleyball with their ethanol stabilized inertial platforms operating at half-mast.

    This year the entertainment included an Englishman who presents himself as ‘The Barefoot Violinist’ all decked out in a white tux sans culottes.  He is a classically trained musician who has developed a unique style of interpretations and improvisations of modern and classical pieces all performed while he dances and prances to the music he produces from his violin and the computerized accompaniment factory obligatory with today’s solo performers.  Quite a showman, and quite a show.

    Jo Ann and I are grateful to be counted among John and Sandra’s friends, and look forward to many more of years of saying good-bye to Nevada County summers in such beautiful surroundings and with such an eclectic group of local people.

  • George Rebane

    Like all politically correct people in the country, at our house every morning we wake up to NPR news and commentary (locally KXJZ 90.9FM).  We get our snoot full of the day’s leftwing litany right from the gitgo; don’t mess with us, we’re up to date in Kansas City.  Besides, it’s always good to wake up with a laugh or shaking your head in disbelief, clears out the cobwebs.

    NPRlogo

    This morning the NPR national news informed us that Van Jones had resigned because in a speech he had referred to all Republicans as “assholes”, and that because the Right had launched a “smear campaign” that he could not properly fight as an Obama administration official, without diverting the energies of the administration from its adopted direction.  Of course, NPR didn’t explicitly identify the orifice that he pointed out so colorfully, but anyone who follows national affairs will have seen the video of that Jones speech several times as this story played out last week.

    However, that was not why Obama dropped him, public figures have called members of all our political parties names equivalent to and much worse without having to start mailing out a new batch of resumes.  So that was Lie #1.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    Vanjones Van Jones is one of the more outspoken and now visible socialist radicals (a self-declared communist) in the Obama administration.  The record of his outrageous remarks and speeches has now come to light and given rise to several members of Congress to call for his resignation, and to bring under congressional review the entire scheme of these extra-constitutional ‘czar’ appointments that are making potted plants out of most Cabinet secretaries.  However, the ‘light’ on this issue does not shine uniformly from across our vaunted journalistic industry.  As of yesterday, a search of Nexus revealed zero coverage of the growing controversy from the flagship editions of leftwing MSM outlets NBC, ABC, CBS, New York Times, and Washington Post.  Because the White House has started issuing statements on this, they are finally taking their cue and beginning to open up.  Pravda used to operate this way, and today still does.   This kind of black hole journalism is not uncommon from the left, and I’d be interested in hearing about similar behavior from the more conservative news outlets.

    [update] The WSJ tonight reports that Van Jones has indeed resigned after issuing two apologies that apparently were not sufficient to have Obama waste any more of his diminishing political capital in defending this man.  We do recall, that all this went down despite that the cited MSM outlets attempted a news blackout on the story during the past week.

    NPR is going to do a little educational piece on ‘stochasticity’ this weekend. (locally on KJZZ 91.5 at 3pm Sunday 6sep09)  The lay definitions of this term are all over the place and mostly incorrect or, at best, imprecise.  But the fact that a liberal media outlet is educating its listening public to something, the understanding of which is anathema to collectivization and social engineering, falls somewhere between remarkable and astounding.  But then again, maybe they don’t know what they’re doing.

    Randomwalk Understanding stochastic processes is critical for a deeper appreciation of how social policies will/do operate in the real world.  Formally, a stochastic process is a complex process that involves at least two random processes.  These random processes may be inputs to the stochastic process, and/or they may prescribe (some of) the internal workings of the stochastic process itself.  A random process is one the output of which is known only to within a probability (distribution); the outcome of a thrown die, or a drawn card are examples of random processes since the probability distributions of each outcome are known.  However if the process is, say, throw a die AND draw card, based on the result drink a beer if you get an even number AND a face card, else drink water, then the resulting drinking behavior is a stochastic process.  The outputs of stochastic processes are uncertain and, at best, known to within only a probability distribution.  And even if known, the probability distribution may be such that it is not useful for planning/control purposes (but that’s another story).

    We live in a universe that surrounds us with stochastic processes, and our success in life is to a large extent due to our ability to identify and satisfactorily behave in such environments.  Statist social scientists and politicians don’t understand this, and exhibit their ignorance by continually coming out with policies that don’t account for stochasticity (and other complexifying factors).

  • George Rebane

    Tonight Jo Ann and I joined a lot of neighbors from these parts in the Grass Valley Veterans Hall to meet with our Representative Tom McClintock in the town hall format that is now sweeping the country.  On this warm summer evening more than 1,500 people showed up, many with signs of all persuasions, and all with spirit and enthusiasm for the event.  The whole meeting was well organized by members of the Nevada County Tea Party Patriots and McClintock’s congressional district staff.

    NCtownhall1  

    It seemed like everyone arrived about an hour early for the 6pm start time in order to get a good seat, wave their signs, and ease into the swing of things.  Lots of friendly talk, floor debates, and people just being delightfully outspoken and unabashedly American.  I didn’t hear a single ‘Oh yeah!  Well, your mother wears army boots …’ in the whole crowd, although later during the formal proceedings there were occasional spontaneous emissions of unbridled partisanship.  But then, that was the whole purpose of being there.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    Truthout.org is one of the left-wing sites that I regularly visit to catch the view from the other side.  They’ve been known now and again to heroically attempt a reasonable explanation for the odd socialist policy that may benefit from such treatment.  Their best shot at defending the ‘public option’ component of Obamacare is taken by Lawrence Wittner, a professor of history, in the piece ‘When “Public Options” Serve the Public – and When They Don’t’.

    Unfortunately the man comes up a bit short when he tries to construct a taxonomy of government services, or what we see as sorting apples and oranges.  Now you understand, as an historian this kind of stuff should be his strong suit.  But then, even those who can’t, also deserve work, don’t they?

    In this piece he does a mighty job of equating the government’s entry as a ‘competitor’ into the healthcare insurance business to its involvement in law enforcement, fire fighting, and running city parks.  Since we have accepted the latter with not much fuss, letting a non-profit agency of Big Brother mix it up with regulated private insurance companies in the market place should not be a problem – it’s the same thing, isn’t it?  We note that the only tool in his kit seems to be ‘private is bad, the collective is good’.

    Life is too short to take such liberal academic archetypes seriously, and waste the time of high caliber RR readers in a detailed and drowsy rebuttal.  Nevertheless, you do have to keep an eye on them, because to most people they appear to speak from Olympian heights.  So I recommend a read of this short piece to see what the Left considers as intellectual support for Obamacare.  Note also all the little phrases about the rich having to pay their proper share and other little attentions to class.  (And in passing you may muse on what kind history Lawrence Wittner pours into the empty vessels that dutifully assemble in his classes.)

    Nudge In the final analysis the public option is intended to be a nudge toward complete socialist healthcare in America.  It has been so identified by several liberal Congressional leaders.  Nudge? that’s also the name of the recent book (lots of weeks on the country’s best seller lists) by R.H. Thaler and C.R. Sunstein on behavioral economics and techniques that governments should use to gently herd us into choosing and accepting their policy desiderata for us (more here).  The basic method it promotes is that government should make the other alternatives so bad that our remaining choice is really no choice.  Oh, did I mention that Cass Sunstein is also Obama’s Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs – aka the ‘Information Czar’ who wants to make sure that blogs like RR don’t nudge you in the wrong direction.

  • George Rebane

    Some national thought leaders argue that health insurance is a broad social problem since your neighbors’ health ultimately also impacts your own Quality of Life.  Then their logical short step is for government’s entry into the health insurance business.  Thomas Frank (2sep09 WSJ here) sees it as no biggie since “we already pay for other people’s health care” when we buy private health insurance.  But we pay for other people’s anything whenever we insure anything – it is the way we choose to express our aversion to risk within our own personal utility for money.  Extending this logic, we recognize that our neighbors’ education, income, shelter, food, … also affects our own QoL.  Should we then form a collective to equalize and provide for all those needs?

    What the man doesn’t understand is that today we have the choice to buy insurance if we want it and from where we want it.  Choice is a major component of liberty.  To the extent that our choices are limited by government, so is our liberty.  The original goal of our Union was to provide people a form of governance that expanded our liberties while we still enjoyed the benefits of society.  Sadly, this goal has not been in sight for generations.

    DeltaSmelt California’s governator let slip his principles some years ago and now has been the latest ineffective leader to preside over our state’s decline.  Today Schwarzenegger claims to be doing all he can to turn on the water pumps, so that our Central Valley’s agriculture can survive the government-augmented drought that has killed tens of thousands of jobs.  But the forked-tongue politician will not do the right thing for California citizens, tilting instead for fish and the sanctity of mind-boggling EPA rulings.  The 2sep09 WSJ reports

    Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has said that he “doesn’t have the authority to turn on the pumps” that would supply the delta with water, or “otherwise, they would be on.” He did, however, have the ability to request intervention from the Department of Interior. Under a provision added to the Endangered Species Act in 1978 after the snail darter fiasco, a panel of seven cabinet officials known as a “God Squad” is able to intercede in economic emergencies, such as the one now parching California farmers. Despite a petition with more than 12,000 signers, Mr. Schwarzenegger has refused that remedy.

    RR readers are familiar with my commentary (here and in The Union) on public employees and their pensions, especially those managed by CalPERS.  Well that ponzi-prone bureaucracy is now in the process of electing its new Board of Directors.  Keeping tabs on this quasi-public agency is a full time job that is undertaken by PersWatch (http://perswatch.net/).  I draw your attention to the candidates for the CalPERS board whose revealing non/responses to a questionnaire are available for inspection on the PersWatch site.  Why should you care?  Because you are responsible for making up the underfunded public pensions as they come due, CalPERS is not.  Hat tip to Russ Steele for the heads up on this election.

    [update] A correspondent just emailed me a recent article on the Chapter 9 bankruptcy travails of Vallejo that is really the unfunded liabilities canary for all of California’s jurisdictions.  Take a read and become an early user of “burden to the general fund” which is bound to become a popular term of art as other cities and counties begin to feel and disclose their own burdens. 

  • George Rebane

    The national healthcare debate will again kick into high gear as Congress reconvenes in a week or so.  Both sides have been accusing each other of lying about what Obamacare will entail.  The Left’s argument is the standard ‘that is a lie/misrepresentation/myth’, and then they leave it there as if denials and counter-charges in and of themselves complete the argument.  By necessity, the Right has taken its argument to higher ground, and refutes the promises of socialized medicine with reason and hard facts, which, if false, should give the Left devastating openings to win the debate.  Since this has not occurred, one must conclude that the only ammunition left to the Left is liberal application of speed and fog to get Obamacare passed before more people begin to smell a rat.

    GovtHealthcare

    As an example of this, please consider ‘Sorting Fact From Fiction on Health Care’ in the 31aug09 WSJ by Drs Jerome Groopman and Pamela Hartzband, practicing physicians who are also on the Harvard Medical School faculty.  Their piece addresses some of the egregious claims of Obamacare.  One of them is the oft-repeated but never expanded myth that the US’s 37th place in the WHO rankings results from some undebatable clinical numbers.  Not so, it is actually a number that comes from a formula containing a lot of subjective non-medical factors.  As the authors go on to explain –

    (more…)

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