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  • George Rebane

    [This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary which was broadcast on 27 April 2012.  I have annotated it with notes and links as appropriate.]

    One of the nation’s premier demographers Democrat Joel Kotkin was recently interviewed by the WSJ on his study of ‘The Great California Exodus’, that has been vehemently denied by the state’s progressive pundits and local leftists.  Kotkin reviewed the grand history of the golden state and its downward spiral that is now entering its third decade.  This demographer has been busy for a number of years studying and publishing on our economic and demographic decline.  (for more google ‘joel kotkin, california exodus’)

    Among the more recent developments is that the great exodus which started with corporations – no one wants to expand in California – grew to include the well-to-do, and now includes middle class workers who are priced out its real estate markets, and taxed out of their income and ability to save.  Kotkin points out that California ranks at or near the bottom on every important comparison of the states ranging from ‘ease of doing business’ through cost of living to individual liberties.   Along with states like Illinois and New Jersey, we have become the poster child of how not to govern a state.

    Where California used to invite the founding of innovative companies such as those which gave us Silicon Valley, today the main product of California, according to Kotkin, is red tape.  He goes on to explain that “part of California's dysfunction … stems from state and local government restrictions on development.”

    That “local government” part hits home here in Nevada County.  Our county’s population has been stagnant for the last decade.  Both businesses and developers have been taking a pass on the county for some years now claiming that it is just too hard to get anything done in these foothills.  The leftwing activists, of course, celebrate this as an achievement in their eternal quest for a sustainable stasis.  And our local municipal and county governments have long had a bi-partisan effort to support these prohibitions and delays.  The cynical part of all this is the expressed denial by our electeds as they give lip service to promote yet another business development workshop or public meeting.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    SESFlogoTechTest2012, the sixth edition of SESF’s annual merit scholarship exam, was held on 14 April 2012 in the Nevada Union High School’s science lecture hall.  As has become tradition, the exam’s solution key has been posted on the SESF website (here), and the upcoming annual ‘Survivor’s Breakfast’, with the obligatory ‘Where the Elite Compete’ T-shirts, honoring test takers and winners is scheduled for May.  The test is given to high school seniors who are headed for STEM (q.v.) careers as recommended by their science and math teachers.

    But the big news this year is SESF’s launch of TechTestJr (aka ‘son of TechTest’).  TTjr was inaugurated at the request of some Nevada County middle school educators who observed that it was in the 8th grade that students make the decision to pursue a high school curriculum that qualifies them for undertaking STEM college majors.  It is rare for students, who avoid the difficult science and math classes in high school, to then change their minds and enter a make-up program to enable them to pursue STEM majors.  TTjr is designed to be another timely motivator during that critical decision juncture (more here).

    TTjr2012 was given last week over a three day period in several Nevada County middle schools and the results are available here.  A press release from the Sierra Economics and Science Foundation on the test reads –

    SESF organized and sponsored a successful inaugural TechTestJr2012 exam for Nevada County 8th graders.  Six Nevada County schools participated in the 1st annual TechTestJr fashioned after SESF’s very successful Nevada County high school merit based scholarship exam called TechTest.   93 Nevada County students, primarily 8th graders, took the TechTestJr exam. 

    The 1 hour exam covered a wide range of math and science related questions.  

    The top score was earned by a student of Robert Sharp’s at 7 Hills School who scored a whopping 97% on the exam.  4 of the top 5 scores were earned by 7 Hills students.  Magnolia Intermediate School also had a very strong showing with one of the 4 runner-ups coming from Magnolia.  The 4 runner-ups each scored 93% on the exam. 

    The top scoring student from each of the 6 school’s will be recognized for their achievement.  Grass Valley Charter School’s (top score of 90%), Mt. St. Mary’s Academy (top score of 87%), Clear Creek (top score of 83%) and Union Hill (top score of 76%) students also participated in the very difficult merit based exam. 

    The exam was proctored the week of April 16th in Nevada County.  SESF expects to add additional Nevada County schools to next year’s list of participants.  If your school is interested please email mcdanielwealthman@sbcglobal.net. 

    The goal of the TechTest series is to encourage continued education (and future vocations) in the technical fields of math and science.

  • George Rebane

    Reason and logic have always had a low survival rate in courtrooms, especially where poorly understood evidence of a technical nature is presented by self-serving lawyers to innumerate juries.  In recent memory, the OJ Simpson murder trial may serve as a nationally prominent Exhibit A for this proposition.

    Today we have the much examined and touted (for various agendas) Zimmerman/Martin shooting case that will soon be going to trial.   Much effort and focus is put on a piece of recorded audio that appears to have become the evidence by which Zimmerman’s claim of justifiable homicide will stand or fall.  This audio clip is now undergoing forensic analysis by state agencies and private parties having court-acknowledged expertise in matters pertaining to analyzing speech.  Some of these experts have apparently weighed in with some “preliminary findings” which now serve as grist for the media mill and a large gaggle of very opinionated bloggers, commenters, and self-appointed jurists in the blogosphere.

    RR has chosen not to join this cohort opining on Zimmerman’s guilt or innocence, instead we wish to use the case to examine the larger questions of ‘stand your ground’ victims’ rights, and in this  piece how to properly look at reported evidence in such cases.  In the following we take a look at a report on the blog of “legal scholar” Professor Jonathan Turley by guest poster Mark Esposito.

    I have no idea of Mr Esposito’s qualifications, but simply post his opening paragraph that also happens to be his summa.

    The  chair emeritus for the American Board of Recorded Evidence, Tom Owen, and Ed Primeau, a Michigan-based audio engineer and forensics expert, have independently concluded that the furtive pleas for help clearly heard on the 911 tapes are not George Zimmerman’s. Both acknowledged experts used voice enhancing software, but different techniques, to rate the probability of the voice being Zimmerman’s at no more than 48%.  A 90% match is considered scientifically reliable.

    So there you have it, the case is seemingly closed.  But not quite.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    BigBroUnmanned surveillance aircraft come in a range of sizes that fit in the palm of your hand to big ones the size of airliners.  The 21apr12 WSJ reports that the smaller ones are being snapped up by stateside governmental agencies ranging from federal bureaus to local police.  Their manifold uses should be obvious to the intelligent reader.  Having been introduced and ‘perfected’ in overseas military operations, this war surplus technology is now finding many cost-saving, capability expanding jobs for those who seek to monitor and control our every move – ‘Look Mommy, there’s a little helicopter outside my window!’  The lightly read will, of course, rejoice that it is all for our collective benefit.

    On the ground Big Brother is being aided by one of his Big Sisters – Sen Barbara Boxer, D-CA.  This unabashed socialist has introduced SB1831, aka MAP-21, to require that digital recorders (‘black boxes’) be installed “in all new passenger motor vehicles” starting in 2015.  The recorded data is supposed to belong to the vehicle’s owner, except that there are so many exceptions in which it must be surrendered to the authorities.  In short, it’s the state sticking another monitoring probe between our cheeks (see Sec 31406).

    In any case, you won’t be surprised that Majority Leader Sen Harry Reed (D-NV) is right in there supporting our Barbara on this legislative hernia pack.  And they have a lot of plans for these little technology innovations that entail the lawful and fully taxed future use of what used to be your car.  California will lead again.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    The shooting of Trayvor Martin has raised a fundamental rights issue that most of us have for long thought was a done deal in a free society – namely, whether a law-abiding citizen is still allowed to defend himself with deadly force should he be the victim of an attack that may leave him dead or maimed.

    MuggingBefore the progressive assault on the law abiding and victim, there was no question that such a permission was a fundamental right of a free citizen.  It is ensconced in the Bastiat Triangle (q.v.) and was interpreted as such by our Founders.  Until recently, ‘stand your ground’ SYG was not even called out per se in our legal codes – it was naturally assumed to be the right and the proper thing to do when criminally assaulted.

    Today things are different, and should you find yourself having your brains battered out or about to be stabbed, your instincts to defend are subject to severe post mortem scrutiny by our justice system should you prevail in your defense and in the process the assailant is killed, injured, or suffers some other form of inconvenience.  Amazingly, the first question the victim is supposed to correctly answer is ‘could you have followed some other course than put yourself at the mercy of your alleged assailant?’  In short, justify that you had to be there and then when the low life decided to make his move on you.

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  • George Rebane

    This week has seen a lot of dilapidation in our ship of state.  For openers, Peggy Noonan takes an overarching survey of events that reflects on our national character.  From other perspectives we see what it is to be on a careening progressive luge as this administration more fully reveals itself, and what it can accomplish after getting the hang of it during the last three years.  A minimally hopeful sign is that more than a few Democrats are beginning to shake their heads at the excesses of socialist thought.

    After all the information sharing between our intelligence services ordained by 9/11, we now hear that the FBI has pulled out of that little daisy chain, and has gone back to its insular ways of doing business.  It seems they weren’t getting that much from other agencies, and their stuff was leaking out.  A correlative to this is that the US seems to have shut down its pursuit of Russian spies on these shores, in spite of professional estimates (including from defectors) that Russia today has more spies in the US than it did during the Cold War, and has declared America to be its number one intelligence target.  The last prosecution of a Russian spy (Robert Hanssen) was in 2001, which case indicated that there was at least one more mole left in the fabric of the DOD.

    In the meantime, the Transportation Safety Administration is starting to implement its VIPR program of checkpoints on US highways (google ‘VIPR checkpoints’ for a snootful).  The first ones were being tested in Florida to gauge public reaction to them.  It is, of course, all done for our own safety and to check the terrorist threat.  The counterpart of the policy is a further achievement of Agenda21 goals and objectives.  The checkpoints will spread from commercial transport vehicles to private automobiles in no time.  And, as everything else responding to the terrorist threat, these will remain a permanent fixture of our constantly expanding state that continues to grow 20% faster than our private sector economy.

    A couple of years back we were on a bus from Alexandria to Cairo, and shook our heads sadly at what the Egyptians had to live with as we passed checkpoint after checkpoint manned by tough looking guys sporting AK-47s and more sinister stuff.  It can’t happen in America.

    Back at the ranch, it seems that harbingers of the Great Divide are already in full swing.  Nationally known demographer and “Truman Democrat” Joel Kotkin writes and extensive peace on ‘The Great California Exodus’ and “what is driving the middle class out of the Golden State” (to loud denials from the loyal looney left).  It used to be only the mobile ‘rich’ who packed their bags and their companies to head to points east (I was going to say more about this, but Russ Steele beat me to it on NC2012).

    Adding to the whole picture of our country’s ongoing and growing cross migrations is a report by Art Laffer and Stephen Moore about what impact the states’ income and corporate tax policies have had on states’ revenues and GDPs.  This is in addition to the Mercatus Center report we brought home from their Scottsdale conference last month.

    But I don’t know whether to laugh or cry when reading that Elizabeth Warren, running for Congress in Massachusetts, has had at least one epiphany, maybe two.  The border line communist and "liberal heroine", recently on Team Obama, now acknowledges that 1) when you tax something more, you get less of it, and 2) real wealth and jobs are actually created by entrepreneurial private sector companies.  In fact she, along with a growing cohort of Democrats, are daily finding more and more things not to like about the impact this administration’s biggest lie, Obamacare, and faux pas on stopping the Keystone pipeline.  Even Barney Frank (gasp!) has climbed on this wagon.

    So that’s a little update on how we are quietly becoming a progressive police state with daily more criminalized behaviors on the books, ever increasing taxes, frantic migrations of people seeking freedom, and a growing government that continues to add bureaus and (monitoring/enforcement) functions employing thousands to sop up the unemployable and increase its cohort of supporters on autopilot.  And then there are the rest of us.

  • George Rebane

    [This introduction to modern medical decision making is intended as the first of a series of such essays on RR.  Subsequent pieces will cover simplifying nomograms (to avoid the arithmetic), personal utility (always subjective), and planning sequential diagnostics and treatments.  The aim here is to prepare the intelligent healthcare customer to communicate effectively with the healthcare industry and make prudent decisions for his own benefit.  A related background tutorial by the author for this piece is 'Hello Bayes Theorem!']

    The healthcare industry woefully lags in many areas, but helping patients make correct decisions about their individual healthcare is where healthcare providers, led by attending physicians, are pathetically behind the times.  Let me explain.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    InternetToday it is very difficult to reconfigure networks because you have to deal with hardwired components like routers, switches, and servers which have been manufactured by network suppliers like Cisco and Juniper to handle the stream of data packets in their own specific ways.  Modifying a network is a nightmare of hardware reconfiguration and clumsy/limited system programming.  Today network hardware operators are a highly paid group of technicians doing such things that few people understand.

    The response to this growing friction in developing new networks with expanded capabilities comes from a Silicon Valley company called Nicira.  The company is built on the technology out of the 2007 PhD dissertation of its CTO Martin Casado.  Dr Casado invented a better way to ‘program networks’ on existing or cobbled together cheaper hardware.   These new architectures will be virtual networks operating virtual servers and using virtual storage on arbitrary and/or existing hardware configurations within an enterprise or out in the internet cloud.

    The big deal is that the virtual networks – their configuration and operation – are totally under software control, and that means they can be quickly reconfigured (on the fly); and with even more smarts built in, they can reconfigure themselves to improve performance, be more facile in managing data, and interfacing with all kinds of other systems on the periphery of the network.  The online Wired has a good article on all this here.  Nicira is already working with some very big outfits in implementing this next phase of network technology.

    To me the excitement here is that such reprogrammable virtual networks take us a giant step closer to what I believe is the most likely candidate for the Singularity event that I have described before in these pages.  And that is when the cloud spontaneously ‘wakes up’ and becomes sentient.  Dynamic reprogramming of networks to implement new processing algorithms, new data handling techniques, and whole new computing paradigms (mimicking human brain structures?) is a required capability for this event to happen.  Virtualizing networks will hasten the day when it says, ‘I’m here.’

  • George Rebane

    The Financial Times reports (here) that Spain’s central government is looking to federalize financially distressed regions of the country.  (Greece essentially succumbed to such central control early on so as to avoid the rush.)  RR has anticipated a similar fate for California and states like Illinois, New Jersey, … under equally astute financial management by their state governments.  It’s all part of the European model that Team Obama is forging for us.

    On another and more earth-shaking note, artificial intelligence may be at the threshold of passing the Turing Test (q.v.).  The new direction taken in AI recently depends on being able to manage ‘big data’.  That is, being able to organize and draw cross connections and correlations similar to what humans are able to do, and to do this much better than IBM’s Watson (q.v.).  the 12apr12 issue of Wired reports (here) that “there is reason to believe that code kernels for the first Turing-intelligent machine have already been written.”

    The anticipated breakout is due to “Two revolutionary advances in information technology (which) may bring the Turing test out of retirement,” wrote Robert French, a cognitive scientist at the French National Center for Scientific Research, in a 12apr12 Science essay. “The first is the ready availability of vast amounts of raw data — from video feeds to complete sound environments, and from casual conversations to technical documents on every conceivable subject. The second is the advent of sophisticated techniques for collecting, organizing, and processing this rich collection of data.”  The pre-Singularity threshold for hiring human workers continues to inch upward.

    Meanwhile the Senate Democrats failed in their attempt to pass the ‘Buffett Rule’ tax increase.  This much ballyhooed piece of snowball’s-chance-in-hell legislation is the centerpiece of Obama’s campaign initiative sold to the sheeple under the rubric of “fairness” in solving our debt and deficit  problems in coming years.  But without even going into the examination of ‘fairness’, the Buffet Rule tax will accomplish none of this, and serve only as the transom to massive tax increases on the middle class (some history here).  The Heritage Foundation covers more detail on this.

    The facts of the Buffett Rule are simple. The President wants millionaires (and small businesses taxed as individuals) to pay a minimum tax of 30 percent. For all of his rhetoric that the measure would "stabilize our debt and deficits for the next decade," the Buffett Rule would bring in only $47 billion in revenue in ten years. To put those numbers in context, President Obama's budget calls for adding $6.7 trillion to the national debt. So the Buffett Rule would cover just 0.007% of all of Obama's debt and .001% of Obama's spending.

    We shudder to contemplate that there are millions of Democrats with sufficient deficits as to make such election year demogauging a profitable enterprise for their progressive elite.  No one doubts that they know their constiuents.

  • George Rebane

    For the benefit of the undecided reader who is truly puzzled as to the nature and fate of collectivist vs (classical) liberal forms of governance, we will take another lap around the barn.  The examination and critique of public policy always circles back to the fundamental arguments between the eternally contending measures of liberty and equality.  Equality is easy to attain and maintain, all it takes is ignorance and the gun.  Liberty is the more difficult to achieve and keep intact.  And that is because ‘equality’ is always arbitrarily defined by the central imposing agency; the definition of liberty is distributed and requires broad consensus among those who are free.

    That all forms of collectivism have an intrinsic tendency toward autocracy is an historical truth that is rejected only by the collectivist, no matter what particular mantle – socialist, Marxist, communist, fascist, … – he wears.  A favorite argument that works on light thinkers is that liberty and the capitalistic free market societies it gives rise to are only theories that have yet to work anywhere in the real world.

    Today Michael Moore and his minions are effective teachers of this thought.  Their ancestors would have made the same arguments to our Founders in the aftermath of our Revolution – ‘That man can govern himself is nothing but a theory, show me where in the world we see such form of governance working.’  The intellectual pinnacle of the collectivist seems to be that liberal maxims cannot be trusted to work since nowhere do we see their perfect application, therefore we must only hew to and expand collectivist forms of governance that are observably unsustainable.

    BastiatIn my readings and studies, I find that all successful liberal societies must base their form of governance on the explicit statement and maintenance of the minimum triangle of rights collected by Frederic Bastiat in his ‘The Law’ (1849).  These consist of the rights to private property, security in your person, and individual liberty (see also the Bastiat Triangle).   One of the fundamental and minimal functions of the state is to uniformly guarantee these rights, for the weakening of any one of them immediately weakens the other two.  And it is upon this stable structure of rights that all other legitimate rights can be constructed into a larger and still stable structure of social governance.  Our Constitution prescribes such a structure.

    (more…)

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