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  • “In fact, [climate change] has now driven our climate outside the range that has existed the last 10,000 years…” — Dr. James Hansen (from NPR)

    George Rebane

    TwoViewsThere’s a coordinated blitz to recover ground lost to climate change skeptics in the past couple of years.  The lost ground is uneven – in fact, in California there’s actually been a gain as the rogue CARB continues creating chaos – but there’s been enough doubt expressed by politicians across the country so that another application of bogus science is called for to shore up the politically correct belief systems that have recently shown some fraying at the edges.

    And who but that intrepid NASA scientist Hockeystick Hansen himself has leaped into the very breach of the breech with a Washington Post op-ed piece, and a report purported to be published by the National Academy of Sciences (I couldn’t find it, and their search engine has no knowledge of a James Hansen.  Hmmm.).  But there’s enough in the political coverage (here and here) of ol’ Hockeystick’s re-emergence to piece together the elements of his current assault on the nation’s credibility.

    RR readers have been exposed to his shenanigans in past years when he first introduced his notorious global temperature ‘hockeystick’ (here and here).  And, in addition to scores of scientists, tireless bloggers like Anthony Watts, Steve McIntyre, and our own Russ Steele have spent years laying bare the errors and lack of science that the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) crowd assembled by the UN has been inflicting on the world’s public policies.

    Well, now Dr Hansen claims that all these extreme hot weather events we’ve had in the last few years are proof positive that they are caused by AGW.  BTW, the cold weather events during the same interval are just that, ‘weather’ and not climate change.  You gotta have a PhD to tell the difference.

    And this time he’s not bringing up another collection of dodgy computer models like those that created the hockeystick.  No, now he’s appealing to established statistics and recorded historical weather data – you know, bell curves and all that.  Well actually it’s hard to tell what kind of statistics he’s using because the media are guaranteed to muck up what he really did.  All we know from the reports is that he compared data from the base period of 1951-1980 with data from 1981-2010 – two thirty-year periods from a (climate) process that changes in the order of centuries.  Best to watch the NPR video to get the gist of his arguments.

    Assuming he carefully tallied up weather events of various intensities for the base period, he could then make a histogram that plots weather intensity (x-axis) against the number of such incidents for each level of weather intensity (y-axis).  He then fits a bell curve (Gaussian distribution) to this histogram.  Then he does the same thing for the 1981-2010 interval data, and lays the two bell curves over each other.  And by Jove, it appears that the most recent bell curve is visibly shifted to the right of the base period bell curve.

    The extreme weather events are those represented by the right tails of the two bell curves (see Hansen’s figures in the video), and the most recent 30 years shows a higher number for any intensity level of weather events.  So there you have it, slam dunk, end of story, AGW is here, let’s get that cap n’tax legislation going again.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    The report of the latest employment numbers underlines our deep and abiding national innumeracy.  So-called balanced reports of ‘on this hand, but on the other hand’ completely miss the amassing evidence for the systemic labor problem in these pre-Singularity years.  Here there is no ‘on the other hand’ – the creation of 163,000 jobs in July is not positive in any sense as the unemployment rate notched up to 8.3%.  No one seems to understand the real news is that another approximately 70,000 new people were added to the chronically unemployed rolls, in addition to more people coming out of the woodwork to look for jobs and finding none.  Keep in mind that every year about 4.3M young people exit (not necessarily graduate) our educational system.  Almost all of them enter the workforce which now numbers about 156M, and of which only about 63% are working. Today there are over 40M Americans un- and underemployed, and that number is climbing inexorably.

    In ‘New People, New Jobs’ I summarized three areas of technology that could help job creation in developed countries with legions of under-educated and dated-skills workers.  But the bugaboo of the Great Doubling is still there with the taunting refrain ‘anything you can do, we can do cheaper’.  While  pandering his supporters with other fairy tales, part of Obama’s stimulus monies to improve US infrastructure are going to Chinese companies like this one reported by ABC that is building highways and bridges in Texas, California, and other states.

    And now there is a new initiative to use advanced algorithmics to farm out even more jobs overseas, and there create any new jobs that come along.  The field is called crowd-sourcing, in which a complex task is broken up into hundreds (thousands?) of simple ‘micro tasks’ which are then farmed out all over the world and managed by an intelligent control algorithm.  The algo divides the task up, parcels it out to human workers (with redundancy), checks and integrates results, parcels out more bite-sized tasks, until the job is done and the results output.

    New start-ups like Crowdflower and CrowdSource are building software to operate on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk online odd-job system.  Worldwide workers are paid a pittance for their efforts depending on in which country they live.  Even US workers in such efforts can get paid only $1-2 an hour.  Such workers are really not employees of any company, but simply log on and start following instructions for pay.  More here from MIT Technology Review which proclaims “foreign recruits are the newest cogs in the new crowdsourcing machine”.

    Finally, if you’re all done with this frustrating veil of tears and ready to contemplate something more permanent, or at least long lasting, then consider the increasing interest in the study of human immortality (think ‘mind uploading’) and its related area, the hereafter – do not confuse the ‘hereafter’ with ‘immortality’.  The John Templeton Foundation is the latest source for funding such work, having given $5M to UC Riverside’s philosopher John Fischer “to undertake a rigorous examination of a wide range of issues related to immortality.” (more here)

    Among the questions also to be considered are – “Is immortality potentially worthwhile or not? Would existence in an afterlife be repetitive or boring? Does death give meaning to life? Could we still have virtues like courage if we knew we couldn’t die? What can we learn about the meaning of our lives by thinking about immortality?”

    I’ll take a cut at the first question; make me immortal and I promise to provide a thoughtful and definitive answer.

  • George Rebane

    [This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 3 August 2012.]

    One way morally malfunctioning politicians play both sides of the street and bamboozle the voters is by passing a law, ordnance, or regulation that satisfies one faction of their supporters, and then tell the other faction punished by such legislation that, wink-wink, it will not be enforced.

    A prime example of this is the patchwork of marijuana laws now in effect across the country.  The federal government says growing and smoking the weed is illegal, but various state, county, and city laws are also in place that give all kinds of contradictory interpretations of what you can and can’t do.  The people are then mollified by the local jurisdictions telling them, off the record of course, what will and will not be enforced.  Thereby everyone is supposed to go home, satisfied that their cause is vindicated.

    What most people don’t consider is that such seemingly benign and informal policies are actually frameworks for promoting bureaucratic fiefdoms of power and corruption.  The people who continue to practice what is now criminalized, with the understanding of the non-enforcement proviso, actually put themselves at the mercy of arbitrary enforcement by the state.  You may then later be arrested or otherwise penalized in order to fulfill some agency’s performance quota, or for not conforming to some totally unrelated and extra-legal mandate issued by a bureaucrat.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    Note that today’s Stratfor fleet update shows that in a few days there will be three of our five deployed (eleven total) carrier task groups in place to support any US/Israeli plans with regard to contingencies having to do with Syria and Iran.  This will be a rare concentration of such forces.

    StratforFleetUpdate120801

  • Mike McDaniel

    Any quality strategy should include a performance matrix to analyze said strategy.  The progressive strategy, jump started in 1913 (16th Amendment and Federal Reserve Act- later amended in 1977), put on steroids under Franklin D Roosevelt’s “New Deal” and Lyndon B. Johnson “Great Society,” has failed Americans.  If the intention of the progressive movement was birthed by virtuous or evil hearts is a completely different debate.  Performance metrics used to grade the impact on either the individual or society as a collective shows that the progressive movement has failed (continues to fail).

    This analysis will in large part ignore the desecration of individual liberty and focus on the deterioration of the quality of life of the collective due to progressive policies.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    *** Readers know my position on our country’s teachers’ unions.  They are the documented scourge to education and America’s youth.  Now two more examples of these rotten organizations are making headlines in selected news media (forget the lamestream).  In Louisiana the state’s second largest teachers’ union is suing the state for a new law that allows parents to use vouchers to send their children to functioning schools.  Vowing to use ‘whatever means necessary’, the unions would rather see kids in perennially failing schools than having them being taught to read, write, and reckon by non-union teachers (more here).

    In New York ‘Teachers Unions Go to Bat for Sexual Predators’ writes Campbell Brown.  As long as the teachers faithfully pay their union dues, they enjoy a wink-wink and nod from the unions even if they explicitly solicit oral sex from their female students.  It goes down from there.  And yet the unions’ acolytes unabashedly argue (even on these pages) the absolute necessity for such organizations that have now destroyed two, going on three, generations of education for America’s young people.

    *** I am a longtime witness to my Christian faith being whitewashed out of American culture.  Unfortunately, my brethren in the comfort Christian community have no such worries or apprehensions.  As long as their local social club pays its non-specific obeisances to the Lord, and does a modicum of good work in the community, then all is well.  Theological pursuits are frowned upon as being a potential death knell to their dominant kumbayah philosophical underpinnings.  Even more excluded are any considerations of the worldwide assault on Christianity.

    Ben Cohen and Keith Roderick in the 30jul12 WSJ point out that over 100 million Christians worldwide live in extreme persecution by their ruling regimes and neighbors of other faiths.  As Sharansky championed Soviet jewry and Mandela fought South African racism, so does Youcef Nadarkhani champion persecuted Christians from an Iranian jail cell where he is under a death sentence for apostasy.  Sharansky and Mandela received constant support from the lamestream and friendly NGOs until they prevailed.  Nadarkhani’s mission and plight are mentioned nowhere in the proceedings of the Vatican, national religious conferences, down to the Christian churches on the corner.

    Today all faiths can be championed save Christianity.  It is clear why the lamestream ignores Nadarkhani.  But as their numbers understandably shrink, why do America’s Christians also turn their backs?

    *** Finally, if you ever want to see what years of progressivism will do to a vibrant economy, well-educated workforce, and a productive society located in arguably the best geography available on God’s green earth, then look no further than our own California.  RR has sought to alert its readers to the tragedy that is raining down on the once Golden State.  The Left sees none of this, and keeps voting in politicians selected from a mind boggling cadre of the most ignorant and pernicious.

    The tipping point among the state’s electorate was passed long ago.  Today California is in the bag for all collectivist causes, and guaranteed to stay there by voters making up more than one third of the nation’s population on the dole.  These people are undereducated beyond belief, and vote strictly on the basis of race or who promises them the biggest ice cream cone.

    A more comprehensive description of the state’s downfall and status is given by Victor Davis Hanson in his 29jul12 piece ‘California: The Road Warrior is Here’.  This is what awaits any population that accepts the precepts of socialism, and uses them to fashion public policies that punish individual effort and liberty.  It is a must read for all who are still in doubt as to what has happened here in the last decades.  (H/T to Russ Steele for beating me to this essay on his blog.)

  • George Rebane

    Comment streams below my posts about other topics often develop threads about Second Amendment rights and, yes, gun control.  This has been a hot thread the last few days in the comments under ‘Obama is a Self-Declared Marxist’.  No doubt the recent murderous rampage in Aurora, Colorado has piqued the national interest in the topic.

    In the blogosphere, where straight talk and unabashed opinions abound, the Left has again manned the ramparts of the state as the only legitimate seat of power, control, and violence.  Its adherents dust off the age-old arguments that even precede progressivism in their provenance – the elite and their henchmen should be the only possessors of instruments of deadly force.  Anyone from the lower castes having such possession is immediately suspect of planning mayhem or sedition.

    In America the Left has adopted a flanking strategy on the Second Amendment, having tried and failed with a frontal assault as being too obvious.  Perusing their nostrums for “preventing mass murders in the movies”, we read of all kinds of next baby steps toward disarming the American public.  That the Colorado killer had amassed a few thousand rounds of ammo now immediately directs these sharp intellects toward slowing down the legal purchase of ammunition.  It will not be surprising if the Left will introduce legislation making the ownership of more than so many rounds to be illegal.  Never mind that not even a deranged mass murderer can use more than a miniscule fraction of such a stockpile for the most meticulously planned dastardly deed.

    But such stores of ammunition among the public do present a clear and present danger to a tyrannical state.  And therein lies the missed point of all the gun control discussions circling the notions of ‘what does he need a large capacity magazine for duck hunting, for target practice, for self protection, … ?’ or ‘… only drug cartels and other criminals require assault rifles for their dirty work, not law abiding citizens.’

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    One of the telltale signs that gives away a progressive is that he can’t give you a maximum tax share of your income.   In his mind there is no end to the size of government, and therefore no end to the amount of the national wealth that it should appropriate.

    And, of course, the more ‘services’ that the government assumes – e.g. single payer healthcare – the more it is everyone’s business what you do, because if you do it wrong, then the cost of your error burdens us all.  Therefore, you should not be free to do all those things that can possibly go wrong.  Oh yes, by tomorrow we will have discovered more things that you should not be able to do.  And it only makes sense that we have to hire more people to consider all such things, and then even more people to make sure that you don’t do them and catch you if you do.  And that all costs money, so how is it possible to say when your taxes are high enough?

    TaxesFairShare
    Our Great Lying Divider-in-Chief has been calling for the ‘rich’ to pay their ‘fair share’, as he tells everyone that such people don’t play on a ‘level playing field by the same rules’, and they pay less taxes than hardworking secretaries and factory hands.  Their behavior is even more reprehensible since they claim to have started, built, and worked enterprises which were really the handy work of the masses under the benevolent guidance of an all-wise government.  And the legions of local acolytes echo their Messiah’s message into every corner of this land – e.g. see friend Bob Crabb’s contribution.

    The lies are easy enough to refute with people who think and/or climb out of the muddy lamestream once in a while.  The Congressional Budget Office makes the data in the nearby graphic freely available to anyone willing to take a break from class warfare.  And Ari Fleischer has written an excellent short piece in the 23jul12 WSJ that fills in some historical data on what the ‘rich’ have been contributing to our national weal – ‘The Latest News on Tax Fairness’.

  • George Rebane

    [This is the addended transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 20 July 2012.]

    CalPERSThe economy’s downward spiral goes on while the lamestream media continues to paper over the fiscal bombs that explode daily.  The latest report is about the disastrous year that Calpers just finished in June.  You recall that Calpers is the retirement fund manager for California’s public employees – it invests monies from local jurisdictions like cities and counties for their public service employee pensions.  As the country’s biggest retirement fund manager, it is also one of the worst performing.

    Right now it has $223B under management.  Unfortunately this is still an estimated 55 to 80% underfunded.  That, according to a Stanford study, is the amount that California’s taxpayers will have to make up, so that the retired government employees will get the monies that their unions negotiated for them with the help of some very ignorant and cooperative politicians who were supposed to represent the taxpayers.

    With a nod and a wink from Sacramento, Calpers told us not to worry a couple of years ago in the depth of the recession.  It claimed that its investments would earn 7.75% annually into the indefinite future, and that would make everything alright.  Compare that insane number with interest paid by corporate and government bonds which were less than half that rate.  The public demand for some reality in projecting future Calpers earnings caused their investment mavens to relent – they relented all the way down to using 7.5% to project future portfolio earnings.

    (more…)

  • You see, as the Enlightenment fades, so will its diamond shaped social structure – dominated by a large and vigorous middle class.  That pattern fostered vibrancy and creativity, but also brittle flightiness.  The kitschy culture and fickle habits that infested your forever-adolescent America. … That kind of social order is unstable.  Too dependent on high levels of education, civility, confidence, and shared sense of purpose.  As in ancient Athens and Florence, it’s simple to incite the bourgeoisie to bicker over trivial matters.  Just get them overreacting to one exaggerated threat, while ignoring others. … As Plato taught, stable governance requires a broad base that narrows steeply to a small but superqualified ruling class, born and raised for leadership.  The mode that postagricultural civilizations adopt, ninety-nine percent of the time.  Even under so-called Soviet Communism, power soon consolidated in a few hundred families of the nomenklatura caste – a classic feudal society, despite all its superficial egalitarian rhetoric.  [from a conversation in David Brin’s Existence (2012)]

    George Rebane

    Barack Hussein Obama now owns the title of being the most inexperienced, ineffective, secretive, ideological, and divisive leader America has had in the last hundred years, perhaps ever.  He also promises to go forward as our most destructive President if the looming disasters – in defense, healthcare, entitlements, and taxes – of January 2013 come to pass.  But let’s bring our focus to the here and now in how the man is conducting his desperate campaign for re-election.

    •    He does everything to avoid disclosing, discussing, and debating his record as President; all for the obvious reasons as outlined in these pages over his term of office.
    •    He has revealed his talents for chronic and pathological lying about what his administration has done to alleviate this recession, and more recently to shift focus to a fabricated record of Romney at Bain and governing Massachusetts.  Even the prestigious Annenberg Foundation (supports journalism education) has called out his lies.  (see also 8aug12 update below)
    •    He counts heavily on the independents and the ignorant to believe his economic theories which begin and end with the thesis that tax rates don’t affect economic behavior.  But they do affect voting behavior, hence the reprise of keeping the Bush tax cuts for one year after the election.
    •    He accepts responsibility for nothing, and takes credit for everything.
    •    He legislates in the dark of night and in lame duck sessions laws that reveal themselves bit by piece for doing the opposite from the advertized.
    •    He hides the congressionally requested records of his Justice Department, and rogue agencies like the EPA.
    •    He hides his record and writings when he was teaching Constitutional law at Harvard.
    •    He hides his scholastic records in toto – no one knows how he got into his schools and what he did during his academic years save some photos of him in high school doing drugs.
    •    He continues to hide the records of his birth.  Sheriff Arpaio’s investigation reveals that Hawaii’s Attorney General’s office even refuses “to verify that the PDF of Obama’s birth certificate released by the White House is in fact an exact copy of the document released to the President’s attorneys.” 
    •    He instead doubles down on Marxist rhetoric to claim that the nation’s creative entrepreneurs and private sector did not build their companies and create the wealth that continues to sustain America.  It was all done by the broad based proletariat collective.
    •    He is in every sense of the word our first post-American president who sees his presidency as a stepping stone to higher office.

    And he is also the most beguiling politician to come along since Ronald Reagan charmed America.  Except that Reagan charmed those who worked to build up the country, and Obama charms those who cannot consume the country fast enough.

    Against this we have the Republicans’ Mitt Romney who appears to be running the most ineffective campaign since McGovern, and miraculously still continues to poll about even with Obama.  Romney is not taking the battle to the ground that he can dominate, but is keeping to Obama’s back alleys where Romney has neither the experience nor the stomach for the fight.

    Romney fashions further anchors for himself to drag around by not releasing his tax returns, thereby giving Obama even more ammunition to detract the emotionally challenged electorate with charges of ‘offshore investments’ and ‘Swiss bank accounts’.  Romney should know that if there’s a ‘bomb’ in his tax records, he should detonate it sooner than later, especially if it’s big enough to blow him out of this election.  There is no reasonable basis for holding it back, and every reason to release it and then demand reciprocity from Obama’s racist dirtbag Attorney General.

    In a fight between a clever and beguiling weasel and an inept hare in the headlights, the weasel wins.

    [8aug12 update]  One of Obama's long time whoppers is his claim, here on video, that his father was a WW2 veteran.  At under ten years of age, this would have made him one of the youngest soldiers in the conflict.  Somehow the lamestream again missed that one.  H/T to RR reader.

155 comments on Hockeystick Hansen Strikes Again (updated 7aug12)