Rebane's Ruminations
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  • George Rebane

    LaughCry“The sages of Sacramento have done such a splendid job of not adequately funding California’s public pensions that now they want to do the same for non-government workers. Their latest brainstorm is to establish state-administered retirement plans for workers in the private economy.  This is not a joke. … .” as reported in the 22aug12 WSJ.

    Wending its way under the Sacramento dome is SB1234, a bill to create another huge bureaucratic mess in California intended to extend the power of a totally inept, corrupt, and bankrupt state government over one more aspect of our lives – private sector pensions.  The idiots in our legislature are using the imminent Social Security funding shortfalls to argue that our state government, that can’t manage the proper funding of a cup of Starbucks, will now pick up the slack to provide a happy retirement for our private sector.

    These capitol turkeys have done nothing but catastrophic damage to the private sector every time they touch it with their incompetent hands – check the impact of their latest AB32 green jobs disaster.  As soon as this Senate bill goes through the Assembly’s little amendments, they’re taking it to Gov Moonbeam for his siggy that is forthcoming as sure as the morning’s sun.

    This new law and bureaucracy are awful as witnessed by the heavy small business lobbying against it (here) since it was introduced last February.  “The legislation would require employers that don’t already sponsor retirement plans to enroll their workers in state-administered “individual retirement accounts,” but they are really defined-benefit pensions in disguise.”

    Oh, and did I mention that union dominated CalPERS – you know, the 7.5% return boys – want to pitch in and help mismanage the new retirement portfolio?   That this is being considered may be “no joke”, but if we look at this latest abomination from another direction, it may yet be the biggest joke on the California economy concocted by our capitol cretins.

  • Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other. – John Adams

    George Rebane

    So where’s all the wildlife? asks a visitor to a local pond and hiking trail here in Nevada County.  Our cartoonist RL ‘Bob’ Crabb drew this little funny filched from the 18aug12 issue of The Union.  And true to Bob’s perspective on the human comedy, the cartoon’s message can be twofold.  First, the guy is a (probably conservative) doofus who expects the place to be still dripping with critters after everyone has started using it as a recreation area – what would you expect?  And then he could be an ecologically sensitive individual expressing his disappointment on the transformation of the formerly uninhabited and wild area before all the humans showed up.

    Crabb120818
    We expect the latter constituency to start demonstrating any day now for the restoration of Hirschman’s Pond to its pre-peopled pristine position as a natural habitat in perfect balance.  No doubt this could be accomplished by a federal grant or two in addition to some more rangers or sheriffs deputies to enforce the ‘Nature Preserve, Entry Forbidden’.  Actually this little nascent swamp was of little use to anyone but mosquitoes before the county (with aid from Ohio) made it accessible to local residents.  And what someone should teach the ecologically sensitive is that nature has many points of balance, none of them lasting too long before the critters pick a new point to balance on.  So suffer the suffering critters to leave the Pond, and enjoy those that remain in the new balance of nature that now includes you.

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  • George Rebane

    Regular readers have known for some years what portents the American factory and warehouse worker has in store for his future employment prospects.  I initially calculated that the number of un/deremployed would be about 40 million by 2020.  It has been clear for some time now that this estimate is too low.  I believe that 70 million will be closer to reality.

    RomanCircus
    The Gray Lady just published a long piece about the continuing and accelerating advance of robots in the workplace replacing skilled manufacturing and inventory management (warehouse, distribution) workers at an ever rapid pace.  The 18aug12 NYT article is fairly comprehensive in detailing the plethora of tasks, formerly human performed, now taken over by ever more dexterous, efficient, and lower cost robots.  (H/T to a reader for the heads up.)

    However, the nation’s leading liberal rag doesn’t pull all the factors together to point to the disastrous public education policies the nation has followed that now produce a steady stream of graduates and dropouts who are not qualified to do anything beyond signing up for the dole (and vote Democrat).

    It seems that this newspaper’s editorial room is full of flacks whose prime purpose is to cover for Team Obama – especially during this election year – while still trying to report yesterday’s news which bloggers have already reported thoroughly.  And the big picture regarding the impact of this accelerating technology on the nation’s future totally eludes them.

    Ancient Roman emperors pacified the nation with state supplied palliatives – bread and circuses (panem et circenses).  Given the renewed level of planned entitlements and transfer payments, coupled with the mass media’s saturated love affair with sports, talent shows, reality shows, fantasy fairytales, …, our government has no better plan than to tear a page from Caesar Octavianus’ playbook.

  • George Rebane

    An ideology is a structured and communicable belief system that in its best expression is composed of tenets defendable by reason.

    I have always wondered why the Left appears to have no intellectual roots or basis for its scattered ideology.  The Right has its social philosophers in people like Locke, Bastiat, von Mises, von Hayek, and Friedman among others, and frequently cites their ideas and writings.

    Socialism2The post-WW2 Left denies any apparent intellectual roots, especially since the embarrassment of Soviet communism which they so admired in the 1920s and 30s.  Now they propose a scattering of collectivist notions and social policies that have no grounding in history, and even less in what is known about human behavior.  In short, the banners it marches under are bare of anything save the pitiful slogans that signal some particular shortages their constituents have yet to receive from the bountiful state.

    But in the ideological landscape the thinning of intellectual roots is already detectable when the student enters the so-called independent or middle-of-the-road region of social thought.  People populating this region lack the ability to list, let alone define, any of the ideological tenets that inform and motivate the middle.  They also have no intellectual basis for what is clearly a faux political philosophy that panders to those who somehow want to distance themselves from ‘the extremist ideologues’.

    In doing this they also distance themselves from any ability to tell people what they believe in.  Instead, they just repeat their desire to stand away from ‘the extremes’ of political thought, and consider this desire to be a sufficient belief system in which rejection substitutes for definition.  Moreover, the rejected extremes are apparently inaccessible to them, since in their declarations they never seem to get any of these disavowed tenets right.  For example, while they glibly join the Left in assigning someone to the ‘hard’ or ‘extreme Right’, they can offer no argument as to what specific conservative tenets confine a person to that ideological bookend.  Understandably, they are even more disabled in their attempts to characterize the Left for reasons considered below. 

    Therefore, the self-declared middle-roaders are truly muddled in an ideological Never-never Land.  For confirmation, all you have to do is to go to the website of any avowed independent, and try to come out with a list of tenets that is coherent and unique to that part of the political spectrum.  It has yet to be done.

    Having established the above, I was introduced by a reader to the thought of Professor Beverly Gage of Yale.  Historian Gage is a talented leftwing academic whose “teaching and research focus on the evolution of American political ideologies and institutions.”  To my delight, she turns out to be a kindred spirit in her assessment of the intellectual wasteland that today serves for liberal thought.

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  • George Rebane

    [This is the transcript of my regular KVMR radio commentary broadcast on 17 August 2012.]

    The Obama administration is notorious for its initiatives – legal and extra-legal – to enlarge and lock in a dependent constituency that will reliably deliver it votes during elections.  The latest vote buying initiatives involve expansion of major welfare programs.  And I bet you thought that we were actually rolling back welfare and controlling the spending of dollars we don’t have.

    Let’s first look at the refundable child tax credit.  This program provides cash payments to low-income parents who pay no income tax.  Evidence is piling up that this cash refund program is massively abused by the country’s illegal aliens.  Before looking at some details, we see that even the ‘refund’ part of this redistribution program is cynically labeled – there is no refund possible if there was nothing paid in initially.

    The way you get this cash as an illegal is to first obtain an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number from the IRS.  ITINs are easy to get and are required for anyone paying taxes who does not qualify for a Social Security Number.  The IRS makes it clear that “ITINs are for federal tax reporting only, and are not intended to serve any other purpose.”  So you file a tax return and at the same time apply for an ITIN.  On the tax return you show minimum income, and claim as many dependent children as you think you can get away with.

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  • George Rebane

    The National Weather Service is buying tens of thousands of rounds of jacketed hollow point 40 caliber bullets as reported by infowars.com.  It is the latest government department to start packing heat, and joins a disconcerting number of other government units (e.g. Dept of Education) that have no obvious use for deadly force that are now arming themselves.  I reported on this before (here), and note that everyone is quite sanguine about a sudden increase in such huge and curious arms and ammo purchases.  What’s going on?  (H/T to a RR reader for this alert.)

    [Update2] Russ Steele reports that the above report was due to a government clerical error.  See his 1:20pm comment below for details.  Unfortunately no such retractions have been issued for the other departments strapping on their guns and grenades.

    And now we hear that the Dept of Homeland Security is adding to its previously reported purchase of 450 million semi-auto pistol rounds with another 750 million rounds that include several calibers including 357 magnum.  The putative purpose is to prepare for massive civil unrest in the United States.  A referenced report on all this can found here.

    Europe’s major countries are all considering massive new taxes to stave off national bankruptcies – and, yes, that includes Germany.  These range from the standard increase of tax rates, to asset taxes on the variously defined ‘rich’, to one-off (or so they say) huge tax bills that would suck out an additional 10% of the countries’ GDPs.  All this is necessary because, as predicted, the bills for socialism are coming due.  The astute reader will recall my reminders over the years of the unsustainability of socialism (led by nationalized healthcare, public employee pensions, and repressive employment regulations).   Hearing of this, our leftwing readers will merely readjust their blindfolds, and up the volume on their collectivist mantras.  Nevertheless, for an excellent analysis of the European crisis, here is The Economist’s fictional ‘Plan B’ memo to Angela Merkel on the matter.

    GreenKoolAidDid everyone catch the big propaganda show for Britain’s National Health Service so prominent in the Olympics’ opening ceremony.  Here’s a bit of socialism that’s totally on life support, and bolstered only by massive borrowing and cash transfers in the nation’s budget.  These heroic efforts cannot last long, and the pound will be pounded into oblivion.  A smile (grin?) came to many faces as one TV commercial by GE featured that company contributing scores of incubators to Britain’s nationalized healthcare system that would save so many of their little babies.  I didn’t know Great Britain had now achieved third world status that requires such contributions to keep up appearances.

    As an aside, you’ll recall that low/no tax GE is one of Obama’s picked winners, and the conglomerate works cheek by jowl with the administration in implementing its global economic strategy.  It would be embarrassing for the National Health Service to suffer any premature black eyes – like a high infant mortality rate – as the poster child for Obamacare.  So Government Enterprises (‘We bring good things to life’), another member of the state/industrial complex, was miraculously there to fill the gap.  Who says crony capitalism doesn’t have its good side?

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  • George Rebane

    When thinking about the upcoming election in the context of national issues and all that is going on which affects America, things get complicated pretty quickly.  An established tool for representing, sorting out, and communicating such factors and their interaction is called the Influence Factors Diagram (IFD).  An IFD is usually involved in the first steps of laying out the design of a system or process.  It is conceptually extremely simple, even corporate management and (a few) politicians can deal with it.  Lawyers hate them for their uncompromising clarity.  For the intelligent reader – the ones I fantasize who frequent these pages – reading an IFD is a slam dunk.  (I first introduced IFDs here.)

    Below is an IFD that relates a number of factors comprising national issues that are critical to understanding the campaign arguments in the upcoming election.  Each factor is named and represents some measure of its level or intensity.   The arrows represent the influences that the factors have on each other.  Each arrow shows the direction of influence from influencer to the influenced.  The +/- signs indicate the type of influence.  A plus (+) sign says that the influencer contributes a tendency for the influenced factor to follow the direction of the influencing factor – increase-to-increase and decrease-to-decrease – when everything else is kept the same.  For example, ‘US National Debt’ influences ‘US Debt Service Costs’, and the plus indicates that when the debt goes up so do the country’s debt service costs, and vice-versa.

    IFD_2012election

    Conversely, a minus (-) sign indicates that the influenced factor tends to react in the opposite direction from that of its influencer, all things being equal.   Look at ‘Regulatory Burdens’ influence on ‘America’s capacity to generate wealth’; when regulatory burdens increase, wealth generating capacity decreases, and vice versa.

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  • George Rebane

    More of same + more time = more of same.

    Romney_RyanWell, if the local lefties are any indication, then there was a lot of Dems dancing in the streets last night after it cooled down a bit.  All the progressive pundits are heralding Obama’s upcoming slam dunk victory.  Might as well not spend the rest of the campaign cash on attack ads because Obama’s ‘one mo’ time!’ plan for the economy will stack up well with the Ryan plan.  It’s going be easy to tell all the Earls of Entitlement what part of their monthly checks will be nipped here and there by the Romney/Ryan team.

    Romney’s VP pick of fiscal wizard Rep Paul Ryan sent shock waves over both sides of the aisle.  The socialists know that they will now have an easy message to bend the ears of their constituent legions.  And those who understand the country’s fiscal crisis know they now have a stalwart on the ticket who will keep the center-right Romney on the straight and narrow.  These are the people who have read a history book or two, and know that great empires fall from within when they no longer understand how to manage their money and their fisc.

    The rest of the celebrants will never notice when the ‘people’s prosperity police’ finally march in and lay down the new law of the land.   Don’t be surprised if the next national holiday will be Regulation Recognition Day, added to celebrate all the blessings that the fresh batch of yearly regulations brings to each and every one of us.  There may even be ‘spontaneous’ parades like there were in the countries liberated by the Red Army after WW2.  A puzzlement to some was why all the marchers carrying huge banners and signs looked dour.  But we know that if you looked too dour, they sent you to a place where the benefits of collectivism were made crystal clear to you – the first of which was that if you understood, they’d let you live.  Everybody understood.

    On the other side there are some thoughtful voices who recommend that Romney not point to the example of where Europe has wound up.  Most independent voters don’t know enough about what’s going on in Europe, and only picture sitting at a sidewalk café in a picturesque city, drinking wine, and listening to pleasant melodies coming from the nearby accordion player.  And most believe that America could do with more of such an atmosphere.  It’s hard to convince people about national bankruptcies and the euro getting inflated to oblivion while the listener can only hear the accordion on a balmy evening.

    Nevertheless, people like Peggy Noonan are telling Romney to stay closer to home and use California as the more accessible and recognized exemplar of gross government mismanagement – everyone in the country, most certainly people declaring themselves as independents, know that California is already in the tank.  She also joins those who point out that the country no longer has ANY values – these have been carefully excised by the government educational system that has been on a post-modernism tear for the last forty years.

    Post-modernism?  That’s the ideology where absolutes disappear, mores are malleable, and everything is relative.  Repartees like ‘it all depends on what you mean by is’ are offered the limp, lame, and looney to plumb and celebrate their intellectual depths.  And surveys across the land confirm that the triple-Ls dominate the landscape, and by a greater majority every year.

    And then I wonder what would happen if there were a great awakening (a true miracle); if people suddenly realized that no liberal candidate or commentator has recognized, let alone offered, any kind of an economic future that does not have the country follow California down the rat hole.  That people suddenly grasp that it requires genuine entrepreneurial, capitalistic, free markets growth to pull us out of our dive.  This is the single piece that is absent from all the myopic mavens who totally miss our only way back, as they focus on their ‘but you can’t cut …’ mantras without realizing that that’s exactly what we have to do, and that is exactly what we will do.  The only remaining choice the socialists have is will we do it without or with blood in the streets.

    And that is also the choice that faces us this November – can America’s Great Experiment be revived, or will we also become a one party ‘democracy’?

    [17aug12 update]  Bloomberg and Washington Post/ABC News are reporting on data from voter registrations across the nation that should figure in the joyous Democrat celebrations.  My advice to our liberal neighbors is to ignore the whole thing, Obama is as good as re-elected, just have another glass of Kool-Aid.

    The news today is that since 2008 the Dems have been losing registered voters at a rate of more than 10:1 than have the Republicans, and this has been most pronounced in the ‘battle ground states’.  Most of these these party-pooper voters have joined the ranks of the Independents, and further polling results show that “Romney holds a 14-point lead over Obama among independent voters nationally.”

    Meanwhile, socialist columnists like Amy Goodman are celebrating Romney’s “floundering campaign” that, she says, received another blow with the selection of running mate Paul Ryan.  Given Obama’s performance against a floundering Romney, I wonder how the President will fare when the Romney/Ryan campaign really takes off as they seem to be doing even as I write.

    My prediction is that Team Obama is going to duct tape shut Joe Biden’s mouth (‘y’all gonna be back in chains’), and send Congressman Chris Hollen’s (D-MD) good suit to the cleaners.  Hollen is the ONLY Democrat that has bearing and a command of numbers, and can concoct a coherent collectivist spin with them.  The rest – from Reid through Waters to Pelosi – look and talk like an assortment of clowns right out of Central Casting.  But then again, their constituents don’t do numbers.

    My advice to the Repubs is stay on message re the economy, Obama’s record, and most emphatically emphasize the demonstrated damage that keeping that guy in the White House will do to America.

    [18aug12 update]  The real perspective on deficits.

    GrossFederalDebt

     

  • George Rebane

    [This is the submitted form of my regular Union column that was scheduled to appear the 11aug12 print and online editions of the newspaper.  Due to some administrivia at The Union, the column was published in print and online in their 18aug12 editions.  The addendum was appended on 10 August 2012.]

    To remind us again what an upstanding institution government is, we sample a few from the daily tsunami of lies coming from our elected honorables.  You’ll quickly understand why these happenings weren’t prominently reported in the nation’s lamestream media, being left to secondary outlets like Fox, PJMedia, and various blogs and legislator newsletters.

    Starting close to home, Sacramento, along with rogue agencies like CARB (California Air Resources Board), is upping the pace of driving our businesses either to other states or into the mud.  A prime example of one recently announced departure is XCOR Aerospace now relocating to Midland, Texas due to state taxes and senseless regulatory burdens.  Apparently the last straw was Cal EPA marching into their offices to mandate extensive paperwork required to track their use of kerosene.  XCOR is developing space systems for commercial orbital operations.

    Governor Perry is personally welcoming the company to his state as part of Texas’ overall program to attract fleeing California companies.  Besides a long list of other benefits of doing business in Texas, all XCOR employees will receive an automatic 10.25% pay raise – do the math.

    But driving out companies is just one ongoing travesty in California’s insane business environment.  Assemblyman Dan Logue reports that midnight legislative operations continue with very little or no voter awareness.  By 2020 CARB’s implementation of AB32’s carbon cap and tax provision will cost California $60B annually.  It will be administered by a new state owned company that will be awarded the contract without need to bid competitively.  This sleaze was quietly hidden in SB1018, one of 30 budget related bills rushed through without review in less than 48 hours.

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  • As Marxist despots and tribal socialists from Cuba to Greece have discovered to their huge disappointment, governments can neither create wealth nor effectively redistribute it.  They can only expropriate and watch it dissipate.  George Gilder

    George Rebane

    EconomicResearchMy considered opinion is NO.  Economics nobelists Gary Becker and James Heckman argue YES in their 10aug12 piece ‘Why the Dismal Science Deserves Federal Funding’.

    The authors point out that “basic economic and social research … are public goods that are difficult to appropriate privately.”  And they make a good point about the paucity of basic research coming out of the private sector because of its cost and riskiness.  Some of the successes they cite about federally funded research are little off the mark, such as the DNA sequencing of the human genome competition ‘won’ by Celera Corporation.

    Government research has often been carried out by private enterprises receiving federal monies, and retaining some proprietary rights upon success.  And research performed in government facilities has benefitted from the competition of parallel/similar efforts in the private sector.  But all this is not the reason for my NO.

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