Rebane's Ruminations
October 2026
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  • George Rebane

    From some reader comments it seems that there continues to be some confusion about how the 3-door Monty Hall relates to Bayes theorem, and how that relationship is different from some more usual applications of Bayes.  We have covered Bayesian probability extensively in these pages over the years (for example here).

    The fundamental takeaway in the use of Bayesian probability is that 1) all of our knowledge, compiled of countless propositions, is and can be formulated in terms of their probability of being true; and 2) knowledge (i.e. any given proposition) is most correctly updated with new information/data by combining its prior truth probability with the truth probability of the newly obtained info/data according to the Bayes formula (see above link).  The updated (posterior) probability of the proposition may be an increased or decreased value depending on the nature of what new stuff was learned.  All critters know how to do that instinctively with an evolved Bayes-like algo that has promoted their species’ survival.

    A more usual application of Bayes can be illustrated with a wet driveway which you discover when you awaken and look out the window.  Did it rain or did your neighbor again soak your driveway with his wayward lawn sprinkler.  You know that rain was predicted to start overnight with a 20% chance, and you also recall that your neighbor sets his sprinkler to do a predawn watering two or three times a week.  You decide to set that probability at 2.5/7 = 0.36.  Should you still carry an umbrella today?

    Now for Monty Hall.  I explain the solution to my students by upping the number of doors to a thousand behind one of which is a new care, each of the others hiding a smelly goat.  The contestant nominates a door to open.  It’s obvious that the probability of having a car behind it is 1/1000, and the probability that it’s behind one of the other unopened doors is 999/1000, almost certainty.  Now for the duration of the problem it is important to realize that no matter what happens before the prized door is opened, THESE TWO PROBABILITIES DON’T CHANGE.

    Monty knows the door with the car, and he won’t open it until the contestant makes the final pick of the door he wants opened.  So in the first version of our game Monte opens 998 doors with nothing but goats behind them.  Only two doors remain closed – one initially nominated by the contestant, and the other belonging to the set NOT nominated by the contestant.  Knowing that the probabilities have not changed, the contestant knows that he will almost certainly (999/1000) win the car by switching to the door Monty has left closed for it’s the only other door that could possibly hide the car.  The remaining unopened door will always have the complimentary probability (N-1)/N no matter the value of N representing the original number of closed doors.

    In the classic Monty Hall problem we had N = 3.  So, of course, it always paid the contestant to switch since his probability of winning doubled from 1/3 to 2/3.  In fact, no matter the value of N, it always pays for the contestant to switch after Monte has opened M doors where now M can range from one to N – 2.  This can be seen from our N = 1000 door problem even when Monte opens only one door.  Switching then will increase the contestant’s win probability from 0.00100000 to 0.00100200.  We see this by writing the formula for winning after switching to a door selected from the N – 1 – M remaining closed doors – i.e. the new evidence is opening M of N-1 prizeless doors.  In that case the win probability of switching is easily shown to be (1/(N-1-M))*(N-1)/N.  In our case of N = 1000 and M = 1 calculates to (1/998)*(999/1000) = 0.00100200.  And when we use Monte Hall’s N = 3, M = 1 we have (1/1)*(2/3) = 2/3, where switching doubles the probability of winning.

  • George Rebane

    Gracian (#261) speaks to Bumblebrain – Do not persist in folly.  Some make a duty of failure and having started down the wrong road, think it a badge of character to continue; they accuse themselves of error before the bar of their inner selves but before the bar of the outer world they excuse themselves, to the end that if at the start of their unwisdom they were marked imprudent, in its prosecution they are marked fools; neither rash promise, nor wrong resolve lays obligation upon any man; and yet some will on this account continue in their sulkiness, and carry on in their contrariness, wishing to be known as constant in their idiocies.

    Reasonable fear of Islam.  If Islamophobia is the “unreasonable fear” of Islam, then what is the term for a reasonable fear of Islam?  I am among those who identify with such a reasonable fear the evidence for which abounds as proclaimed by both Muslim intellectuals and the Muslim street.  As an example, consider the opening comment to the 7may24 Sandbox (here).

    [29may24 update]  The New York judicial system is rotten to the core as demonstrated by the Trump hush money trial judge’s instructions to the jury.  He never told them what was the specific crime that Trump was supposed to have committed when his financial records showed the $130K payment to Cohen as a ‘legal expense’ (which it was).  Instead he invited each juror to come to their own conclusion on whatever crime suited each the best, and the court would still accept that as a ‘unanimous’ judgement.  So now the precedent is set that New York (and other?) juries can be exhorted to convict the defendant on whatever crime each juror would gin up – no agreement or cohesive thought needed.  That’s one way to  avoid hung juries and nail whoever the trial judge does not like.

  • George Rebane

    The ethics of AI is currently a hotly debated topic.  The high tech companies are congratulating each other about practicing ‘high standards’ in that arena.  Today’s little ethics dust devil involves Scarlett Johansson in which she “rebukes OpenAI over ‘eerily similar’ ChatGPT voice”. (here and here)  The real problems in the use of such audios and videos, which can easily recognized to be like, similar to, or the same as known public personages will not involve ethics so much as questions of what exactly is considered as the intellectual property (IP) of an individual whose videos and speech are available every day in the public domain.

    OpenAI asked for and did not receive permission to use Ms Johansson’s voice in their new AI assistant, but went ahead and lifted her ‘voice’ (actually her unique formants or frequency dependent speech building blocks) from available videos and films.  These were slightly modified, but not enough for the human ear to be confused and not recognize the speaker.  Ms Johansson objected and lawyered up; OpenAI pulled her voice from their product.

    Similar things are happening in videos in which publicly recognized characters can be inserted into scenes which are slightly modified, but still recognizable as the intended person.  So the big questions going forward will be 1) what really are the IP boundaries of a person whose unique ‘persona parameters’ are captured and/or displayed daily in the public media, and 2) what are the sufficient metrics that characterize modifications so that the purveyor of such products can remain ‘litigation proof’.

    Successfully answering these questions will open up new business and revenue possibilities for both producers of entertainment and advertising media as well as for those fortunates whose likenesses still have value or can be resurrected.  Nevertheless, today’s actors are already signing agreements that anticipate the use of their likenesses after their current job is over or after they die. (more here)  Of course, in this coming brave new world the opportunities for fraud will be endless, and launch yet another age of full employment for lawyers.

  • George Rebane

    Were we to discuss really serious topics beyond Trump’s trials and Biden’s lies, I can think of one no more important than that brought up by Victor Davis Hanson in a recent interview (here).  We have extensively covered the various national and geo-strategic factors that portend to end America’s run as the world’s leading democratic republic, economy, and white hat world hegemon.  However, most of our neighbors neither care nor are aware of what’s happening.  As witnessed on these pages, if anything, they are more interested in Stormy Daniel’s testimony and various topical policy atrocities launched by our doddering idiot for president and Democrats at all levels of government (especially California).

    This is not to say that there is no traction to the warnings issued by our more thoughtful political leaders and commentators (e.g. here) – so far, a sparsely populated bunch.  Today more people are starting to take notice that there is now in the offing a likely “extinction” of the United States we have known.  Letter writers (here) to serious publications like the WSJ acknowledge the current deterioration of America’s defense posture and industrial might, and are showing concern.

    Material arguments summarize as follows –

    • The US industrial base to make things from ships to medicines to machine tools is essentially gone.
    • Our military is tragically under-manned and woke-corrupted with traditional cadres of enlistees no longer willing to join, let alone make military their career. Our country can no longer find enough people willing to fight for it.
    • Our unimaginable national debt and reckless social spending programs are destroying the dollar and unseating it as the preferred currency for international commerce.
    • Our open borders and illegal alien import policies are destroying the remnants of America’s public cultural cohesion with new levels of unassimilating multi-culturality never before witnessed in a sustainable and geographically compact jurisdiction.
    • Our traditional allies in Europe and Asia are aware of America’s weak (non-existent?) leadership and feckless foreign policy, and are seeking alternative geo-strategic relationships that serve their national interests.
    • Our electorate is split and largely ignorant of the issues facing the nation; and are in no shape to unify and support reasonably coherent policies to attempt a return to a usefully educated, economically healthy, fiscally sound, geographically secure, and culturally unified sovereign nation-state. Over half of us don’t care and want an autocratic global government run by elites, and the remainder want to return to a liberal constitutional government based on free-market capitalism.
    • By passing laws, regulations, and prohibitive tax rates in a transforming neo-Marxist society, we no longer educate a sufficient cadre of high-end (STEM) workers with needed skillsets or provide them the means to produce wealth in an open-market capitalist economy.

    So instead –

    DeflectedDialogue3
       

  • [Islamophobia?  Actually, for non-Islamists there is no such thing when we recall that the definition of ‘phobia’ is an unreasonable fear.  A correspondent sent a revealing video (here) of British Islamic scholar Anjem Chaudary calmly describing a Europe that will soon succumb to Islam and sharia law.  “Democracy will most likely be replaced by Islamic Sharia law in the UK, Belgium and France within 15-20 years.”  This prediction is supported by this week’s local elections in the UK – ‘U.K. Local Elections Yield Ominous Islamist Success’.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    One of the collateral developments to the coming Singularity (here and here) is the advent of AI-generated ‘digital persons’ or avatars that are so realistic that they are indistinguishable from the real thing.  The technology today permits the avatar designer to select either photos or video sequences and audio recording of a real person and generate a video of his/her avatar in any given context/background and deliver an on-camera monologue from a textual input.

    Here are two recent examples of this.  One is of a popular Ukrainian singer cast as the spokesperson for the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (here).  The other is of the pop-star Taylor Swift delivering a highly improbable lecture on the generation of the Taylor series approximation of an arbitrary mathematical function. (here)

    The obvious problem for the population at large now becomes one of authentication or vetting of such characters encountered online on sites professing to dispense news, commentaries, politicians’ pronouncements, etc.  The industry has yet to settle on common, let alone minimal, authentication protocols for the consumer.  An attempt at this is made in the Ukrainian video where the avatar immediately announces that she is a ‘digital person’ and cites the display of a QR code with a link to the website of the ministry that claims to have launched the avatar, and where the spoken text is posted.

    These problems may be bypassed in the entertainment field where now we will see fresh episodes of ‘Seinfeld’ and ‘I Love Lucy’ along with new movies starring John Wayne, Jimmy Stewart, and Marilyn Monroe.  It will be a brave new world of long-dormant property rights being litigated from here to eternity – truly a new age of full employment for tort lawyers.

  • George Rebane

    Ramirez_240426

    The worldwide climate ruse continues.  Now it’s come out that for years NOAA has been reporting and continues to report bogus temperatures from non-existent “ghost” recording stations.  For its nationally accepted temp data NOAA relies on published reports from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) that operates the stations.  “NOAA fabricates temperature data for more than 30 percent of the 1,218 USHCN reporting stations that no longer exist. … They are physically gone—but still report data—like magic.”  Anyone who cares to look under the hood of the ongoing climate change hysteria would see countless holes in the reported ‘science’ and the legions of just plain lies broadcast daily about a non-existent catastrophe intended to more firmly establish the control of the elites both nationally and globally.  (more here and here)

    “There’s nothing wrong with trying to influence an election. It’s called democracy,” advised Trump lawyer Todd Blanche. (here) That should be obvious to anyone with even a room-temp IQ – but apparently it is not.  This little item came up about the 2016 election during Trump’s hush money trial.  The entire purpose of election campaigning is the attempt to influence voters to vote for this rather than that; it was ever thus.  But not according to the Democrat pinheads prosecuting the former president.  And while we’re at it, can anyone really make a reasonable case against confidential agreements between private individuals concerning their private relationships that don’t violate any laws and don’t injure third parties?  If Trump reported the hush money payment as a legal expense, then that frequently encountered ‘error’ should be the concern of the IRS and so adjudicated, instead of making it an obviously trumped up felony prosecution.  The only more stupid and vindictive prosecution would involve parties, all of whom were willing and profiting participants, in which no one was harmed.  (Oh yes, Trump has one of those going on also.)

    California’s plunge to authoritarian destitution continues.  This morning I had a blood test with a phlebotomist; a very nice young lady, native of Nevada County, loves what she does, and a lifelong happy camper in California.  But now she is moving to Colorado because, as she tells it, even though single, she can no longer afford to live in our socialist state.  Certified phlebotomists in California make $35K-53K a year.  These are hardworking, lower-tier, middle-class people, who constitute part of our ‘makers’, who contribute to the hoard of taxes and fees that the state and its local minions extract from citizens.  It’s been the oft-told story of upper and middle class exodus from the once golden state – they are the job-makers and those trying to build a nest egg for retirement.  We have become blasé about those folks turning tail for greener pastures.  But now the gun-toting government grifters are reaching down to people on the lower economic rungs who remain here trying to build careers.  Even for the Sacramento socialists that is a new low.  I can still hear her plaintive “Would you believe I had to pay $5.46 for a gallon of gas yesterday?!”

    [24apr24 update]  Biden had his SecDHS Mayorkas divert congressionally approved border wall construction funds to do environmental studies and mitigation on the harm caused by the already built wall sections, instead of continuing to secure the border.  Meanwhile the SOS (sack of …) kept lying to the public at every chance that the “border is secure” as millions of illegal aliens used their Biden free-pass to invade the country.  (here)

    Criminal campaign conspiracies exposed.  David Pecker (yes, that’s his real name), chief exec of American Media, testified that he agreed to publish only good stuff about Trump and bury the bad stuff (‘Catch and Kill’) during the former president’s 2016 campaign.  The hush-money trial prosecutor claims that this was a “criminal conspiracy” designed to influence the election’s outcome.  Well, no sh!t Red Ryder.  Thanks for that epiphany on a practice that the lamestream media has practiced for years using fabricated lies and paid pejorative sources against Trump while backing every leftwing candidate.  Showing media bias for your candidate is only allowed for Democrats, for others today such longstanding campaign practices are considered criminal conspiracies.  (more here and here)

    [1may24 update]  Developing: Russia is jamming the heck out of GPS around the Baltic Sea, the Financial Times reported Sunday, citing the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The jamming, which seems to have escalated since December, is so disruptive that two Finnish airliners en route to the Estonian city of Tartu were forced to turn around on Thursday and Friday last week. 

    The jamming is also affecting boats in the region, “leading to warnings from the Swedish navy about the safety of shipping,” FT reported. Unnamed experts told the outlet they believe there to be possibly three different sources for the jamming, “with one seemingly based in Kaliningrad, another responsible for the disturbances in Estonia and Finland, and a separate source affecting the far north of Norway and Finland.”

    This was sent to me by a longtime friend and correspondent.  It is remarkable that such ongoing aggressive electronic warfare by Putin has not been part of the daily news about the thug’s plans to expand Russia’s control of its near-abroad lands.   NATO, with US leadership, needs to respond; isolationism is not a long-term solution for peace.

    The Niagara of evil and dumb Democrat policies keeps washing over the country.  Jason Riley outlines Gavin Newsom’s California idiocies that inevitably go on to infect our land (here and here), and now we hear that Bumblebrain has been sneaking illegal aliens into the country via a taxpayer sponsored airlift directly from their countries of origin.  But the latest is that our excuse for president is also planning on importing America-hating Palestinian Arabs in a program that will guarantee them a fast track to citizenship.  It’s hard to come up with more destructive ideas for our country than those proposed daily by the woke and progressive Democratic left.

    [5may24 update] Christian Nationalism – The Left’s new target.  “The label is ‘assigned’ to Americans who believe there is a link between faith and freedom.” (here and here)  It is a historical fact that our Founders forged a specific form of republican democracy that would only endure with a citizenry that is educated and shares a common culture of morality.  At the time (ca 1790s) they thought they were on firm ground with that prescription since the country was in-the-large uniformly Christian.  But even then they had some apprehensions – witness Benjamin Franklin’s “A republic, if you can keep it” response to “What kind of government have you given us Dr Franklin?”.  The last fifty years have clearly demonstrated that in America’s ideologically fragmented multi-cultural society we no longer enjoy such a common morality, and require more and more the presence of laws, regulations, and the government gun in the attempt to keep the peace.

  • [Hard to say what hasn't been said?  Have at it.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    For years RR and its more enlightened readers have lamented and documented the degradation of our public schools and also of our higher educational institutions.  Over the last half century this decline has been relentless and extensively reported as anti-American socialists of all shades adopted policies and curricula designed to produce a workforce of diminishing value to our employers and benefit to our society.

    Today with the woke movement the state of our education has reached new depths of idiocy.  Based on utter nonsense, school curricula are being removed, downgraded, restructured in order to eliminate what the Left says is our country’s ‘structural racism’ promoted by cadres of ‘white supremacists’.  These are identified primarily as whites of European descent who are now irredeemably racist, sexist, homophobic, …, the list goes on.

    Apropos to this I refer to the latest op-ed, ‘Any learning loss recovery at local high schools?’, by my sweetie-pie Jo Ann.  Her piece in the 22mar24 Union (here) cited chapter and verse of the dismal numbers that document the downfall of our local public education system.  Since its publication the column has drawn a continuous stream of ire from our local leftwing loonies who also demonstrate their lack of prowess with the written word.  The initial criticisms were of Jo Ann’s purported attack on the incompetence of the teachers.  She did not single out teachers, but identifying the public school districts as part of the culprits hit close to home, and brought out the defense of the obviously weak component of our public education.  In that me thinks their ample protests are revealingly welcome.

    To date these rebuttals have come in the form of the newspaper’s Other Voices columns, Hits & Misses entries, and Letters to the Editor.  This morning I was reminded of the Left’s desperate denial of this travesty by yet another letter to the editor, this time by one of our more prominent local Marxist worthies (here).  This time the criticism was not of Jo Ann’s quoted performance statistics, or of their perceived unfair umbrage against teachers, but the accusation that only rabid rightwing MAGA Republicans would dare point out such a devastating and divisive national deficiency.  The politically correct response to this ongoing educational tragedy and its long term impact on our workforce should instead be a prudent silence.

    [28apr24 update]  I note the almost complete lack of interest in the dumbing down of the nation’s electorate.  It seems as if no one cares or is aware that it all starts with an ignorant horde of voters as our Founders feared and Bryan Caplan –The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies (here) – pointed out several years ago and RR has argued forever.  It is such voters who believe the politicians’ bullshit about the economy, how government can spend money better that they can, and how the rich are taking it away from the poor.  And perusing the news confirms that people really like to focus on the knock-on and silly ephemeral impacts of national dumbth.  I suppose the readers of this little blog just reflect the country’s real interests.

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