Rebane's Ruminations
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  • George Rebane

    Bjorn Lomborg is an internationally recognized and much published environmentalist.  He even believes that AGW is a factor in climate change.  Recently he wrote an article that was critical of President Obama’s inaugural “three horsemen of the climate apocalypse” listed as the "devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms".  The astute reader knows that there have been no such increases in fires, droughts, and storms with which the Left likes to decorate its calls for greater government control of everything under the sun.

    And Lomborg does a fine job of again summarizing the data on all this.  But that is not what I want to talk about.  The vagaries of the climate change data and its in/correct interpretations have been argued for years by qualified scientists and technically savvy bloggers (locally by Russ Steele and Anthony Watts).  What I want to reprise is how substantive reports on issues – here about the misinformation spewed by AGW True Believers – are treated in today’s polarized public debate.

    Lomborg’s assertion concludes, “Fear-mongering exaggeration about effects of global warming distracts us from finding affordable and effective energy alternatives.”  As an AGW skeptic I wholeheartedly agree with that.  Unfortunately, fear-mongering is the only stock in trade that the Left has for making its collectivist policies palatable to the general public, even if it means outright misrepresentation of the record.   But more important, it is the asymmetry of how the debate is conducted that makes the fear-mongering stick.

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  • George Rebane

    A quick update on a major developing theme in education – the massively open online course or MOOC.  I last reported on this progress earlier this month (here).

    While MOOCs are providing tens of thousands of online students with low cost education and certification in various areas, they have yet to be accepted as a sufficient means of getting a baccalaureate degree.  Well this is about to change.  In today’s (25jan13) WSJ we learn (here) that the University of Wisconsin has launched a program wherein taking MOOCs and passing online tests, a student can earn a BA or BS degree.  What’s more, the university is accepting the student’s experience and knowledge, as demonstrated through testing, as sufficient requisites for certain parts of the accredited degree it will award.

    Times they are a’changin’.  The impact on the requalification of America’s workforce for the changing jobs landscape is yet to be determined, but in my view, very hopeful.  MOOCs are the visible solution to bypass the education industry’s established and costly labyrinth for students who have the wherewithal to absorb knowledge needed for the new jobs.

  • George Rebane

    The classical liberal fears the growth of government, and sees it as the prime source of society’s ills.  The collectivist celebrates and promotes bigger government, and sees it as the proper foundation for a proper society.


    ChristopherStevensHillary ropadopes Congress.
      The outgoing SecState’s testimony on Benghazi was political kabuki at its best.  The Dems, in their turn, made great efforts to laud her service as the “greatest Secretary of State” the country has ever had, citing her airline miles and number of countries visited.  Some (e.g. Brad Sherman, D-CA) expected her appearance to really be a valedictory address to Congress giving “input on the bigger issues of foreign policy”, instead of talking about the “criminals” and “suspects” who razed our consulate and killed four Americans.  The Dems still have a hard time connecting organized Islamic terrorists (e.g. the Mahgreb Al Qaeda) with the attack. (H/T to reader for photo)

    The Repubs didn’t get an answer, straight or otherwise, to their material questions.  The bottom line was that it was Congress’ fault for not funding security properly that caused Benghazi, even though Congress pissed away billions on the solyndrizing of dubious green energy projects.  Meanwhile, the lamestream buries another national tragedy and sends Islamists the wrong message, all because it would prove an embarrassment to the Dems – the sacrifices of Benghazi, RIP.

    For the record, I repeat my assessment of Secy Clinton as America’s worst SecState in light of her record.  At no time has American global influence become more ineffective, discounted, and lame than under her tenure.  I cannot think of a positive thing that she has done in the country’s behalf, while our foreign policy failures during the last four years have been legion (as pointed out in these pages).  The only mitigating factor in her favor, the extent of which we’ll perhaps discover from her memoir, is how much she was constrained, limited, and directed in her duties by President Obama.

    Romneydamus ignored.  The on-the-mark prognostications by candidate Mitt Romney were vilified by the press during his campaign, and now are being totally ignored by the lamestream media as what PJ Media mistakenly refers to as its “dereliction of duty.”  I’m talking about, among other things, Romney’s predicitions that Jeep manufacture would be farmed to China (this was called the “biggest lie” of the campaign), that Mali was going to be the next expansion of Islamist terror and takeover, and that Obama would do everything possible to weaken 2nd Amendment gun rights.

    Where I think that outfits like PJ Media and Fox miss the mark is their implying that the lamestream ever thought it was their duty to be anything except the public mouthpiece for promoting and legitimizing progressive and socialist causes (and recently re-electing Obama).  Were they to accept another charter and defend their performance under that, then one could argue their dereliction.  But they have unabashedly done no such thing.  It would better for the audiences of more conservative outlets to stop implying that the lamestream is somehow falling short of what they are (not) attempting to do.

    Soviet agriculture in America.  For years I have argued against corporate and agricultural welfare.  In the latter case, I have raised arguments against the inconsistency of government subsidizing family farms while not subsidizing other inefficient enterprises supplying goods and services to the public.  A bit of research reveals that America’s farm policy is founded on a baseline of farm production that dates back a century (1910-14).  This baseline was incorporated into the cleverly named Agricultural Adjustment Acts of 1938 and 1949.  The whole purpose of these acts is to “provide financial help to farmers by artificially inflating the prices of the commodities they produce.”

    But, of course, as soon as you start such market mangling, things go to hell real fast with missed supplies to misjudged demand.  And to adjust for such screw-ups government laid in another dollop of, you guessed it, more screw-ups.  This it did by adding on layers of what crops who could plant where in what quantities, and then sell in which markets.  Central planning, just like ol’ Uncle Joe was then doing on the great steppes of the former Ukraine and Russia.

    But the real nuclear option that has and can again explode food prices is the so-called “permanent law” that was baked into these bills.  You see, Congress has to renew agricultural subsidies from time to time.  The astute reader knows that once subsidies start in some area, the recipients immediately game the system and tailor it to work to their optimum benefit in a subsidized (as opposed to free market) environment.  The result it that our agricultural industry, from small farms to big agri-businesses, are long tuned to subsidies, and would suffer great dislocations (bankruptcies?) if the subsidies were suddenly pulled.

    So the permanent law stipulates that if Congress fails to pass the next agricultural subsidy bill, then something called parity pricing automatically kicks in to hike food  prices to the adjusted baselines set a hundred years back.  Burleigh Leonard in the 23jan13 WSJ points out that the “permanent law is a hodgepodge of inconsistencies” where “some commodities are covered by parity-based price supports (and) others are not.”   And none of it takes into account the technology advances and productivity gains that have occurred since the parity levels were adopted.  The next food bomb can go off on 1 October 2013.

    Ag subsidies make up just one of the cesspools of federal government policies that we quietly tolerate, mostly because we are an ignorant electorate.  There are many more like it, and our re-elected President promises to populate the land with as many more of these as he and his can during the next four years.  Socialists are a grim bunch who will never give up their belief that they know best.  Obamacare is just the first volley down our throats.

  • George Rebane

    Never confuse effort with achievement.

    Inauguration2013The country is in shambles, and it’s time to think of historical legacies.  Fortunately, as Barack Obama formally starts his second term, the President can salve both through implementing the same set of policies.

    Over the last four years these pages have detailed the mistakes of this administration which have accelerated the country on the path to fiscal ruin, domestic polarization, and international ineffectiveness (even The Economist and The Heritage Foundation agree on these).  And though he regained the presidency, most Americans still believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction.  What should the President do to assure his place in history as a leader who, after recovering from first-term missteps, was able to turn the country around and regain America’s promise in the 21st century?

    According to my lights he should do as much of the following as possible –

    1.    Launch a massive deregulation of America and American life that includes the consolidation and/or elimination of federal departments such as Energy, Education, EPA, Commerce, … .
    2.    Develop a new tax code that is simple, as flat as possible, and eliminates the convolutions of federal favoritism, behavior modifications, and inhibitions to re-enter the workforce.
    3.    Reduce federal taxes to historical 18% levels of GDP, and balance the federal budget.
    4.    Recognize Singularity’s advent and the new labor markets that it will mandate, including the generation of wealth by fewer people using ever more productive technology.
    5.    Revamp public education to benefit America’s youth instead of those who run the ‘public teaching industry’.
    6.    Eliminate all public service unions in governments and public education.
    7.    Eliminate corporate and agricultural welfare (not needed under new tax code).
    8.    Restructure Obamacare from the unintended and poorly conceived burden that it will now be, to newly formed open, state run markets that invite more competition at the levels and practice of healthcare providers, insurance, and pharma.  This includes a revision of the tort laws that promote litigiousness.
    9.    Restructure entitlements so that their funding is converted to benefit from more private sector investment than untenable taxes which inhibit economic growth.
    10.    Become a net energy exporter by developing America’s abundant energy resources, especially gas.
    11.    Engage with our international trading partners – China, EU, South America, Russia, … – to the maximum extent possible to assure that only goods, not armies, cross the world’s borders.
    12.    Declare a climate change holiday to reevaluate the entire proposition of AGW and its alternative, global cooling on the basis of science and not international politics.
    13.    Acknowledge the existence of Islamic terror and its demonstrated anti-western objectives, and work toward a quick two state solution with Israel and Palestine.  This includes promoting strategically located Gaza to become the world’s most productive and prosperous free port – i.e. get the Palestinians into commerce big time, and invite the Israelis to join them with the long term leasing of adjacent real estate needed for expansion – it is only through business and commercial growth that a sustainable peace will be achieved in the near and mid-east.
    14.    Revamp our military to project power with air, naval, and space systems that use ground troops in sparing and short engagements.  Use the goal of normalizing Iran and parity with China in the Pacific as the design standard for a new force structure.
    15.    Encourage private sector space enterprises, and give NASA a new inspiring objective that invites international co-operation to achieve man’s next great step on its way to the stars.
    16.    Honor American citizenship by securing our borders and legitimizing our resident illegal aliens onto acceptable paths to residency, repatriation, or citizenship.
    17.    Re-establish the constitutional intent of states’ rights, and encourage states to resume their role as competitive laboratories of liberty and prosperity.

    [Addendum]  After some reflection I want to add some ruminations on President Obama’s second inaugural speech.  To me it was an extremely ideological speech – an impression corroborated tonight by talking heads of both persuasions – that underlined what I have been interpreting about this man’s belief system since his 2008 stump speeches.  The liberal Washington Post opined that it was “a speech that challenges the other side”, but was primarily targeted to his base.  He no longer needs to pander to us all.

    His parade contained no acknowledgement of our European legacy – no units with costumed Pilgrims, no Revolutionary War patriots, no nod to the entrepreneurs of our industrial revolution, no recognition of our great westward movement that formed what today is America, no nod to the faith that saw our forebears through unimaginable difficulties.  Instead he was entertained by a bunch of hoaky Indians dancing in Hollywood-like costumes in an ensemble that included women to satisfy politically correct gender equality dicta.  I was surprised that no obviously gay couples were included in the spectacle; perhaps I missed them.

    One of my maxims has been to “Never confuse effort with accomplishment.”  President Obama left no doubt that in his America both should be equated and equally rewarded.  And he let us know that he is proud of his ideology, which means that he will do everything that he can to implement it during the first, say, eighteen months before he becomes a certified lame duck.

    Today he gave no quarter to his political opponents; he sought no reconciliation between the country’s ideological poles.  His legacy will be that of the leftmost ideologue of all American presidents.  He made it clear that he was not acknowledging the many paths up the historical mountain of America’s common future of achievement; instead he told us that he would lead us up a different mountain altogether (and there’s more to be said about that).

    In the large view, he wants to be remembered as perhaps the co-equal of MLK as America’s preeminent civil rights leader.  Of one thing we can be certain, in our history his regime will be more than merely noteworthy.

  • George Rebane

    Additive manufacturing, now ‘3D printing’, has been around and evolving for years.  But with the introduction of the precision and automated control of lasers and CAD (computer aided design) encoding the design of the manufactured (‘printed’) part, the field has taken off.  Imagine having a device approximately the size of a refrigerator in your garage that can build a complex part and heat treat or anneal it so that it’s ready for use or assembly with other parts.  (For a tutorial video on the subject, view this TED talk.)


    3DprintedARRR
    has covered 3D printing in the context of living in these pre-Singularity years (here).  Because it is not at all farfetched to anticipate autonomous intelligent machines deciding what parts to make when in order to repair something or build an unimagined device, or even replicate itself.  But most people can’t wrap their minds around that and will relegate it to way out science fiction.  So let’s leave that thread, and talk about more immediate matters.

    I believe 3D printing will soon become another cause and contributor to social and commercial upheaval.  Such manufacturing capability will upend so much of our current commercial infrastructure.  Imagine the spread of low level fabrication across the land.  A part fails on your lawn mower or air conditioner.  Instead of going to the usual outlets to buy a replacement, you either make it yourself or pick it up from a local fabricator for a fraction of the price.

    The required CAD files to make things will multiply like bacteria across the internet.  You will be able to download (and possibly modify) the needed design that the printer will use to make the part(s).  The overhead of setting up the manufacturing operation will be miniscule, and its cost identical to making either one or a number of parts of this or that design.  The only real set-up will be to load the proper powdered metal/plastic/etc and bonding agent into the printer.  And local manufactories will specialize in custom manufacturing that use certain materials and handling parts up to a given size or precision or … (after all, the damn thing has to fit in the printer, so you can’t make everything with just one size machine).  But all these are just details that are being worked out by dozens of companies – just google ‘3D printing’.

    Since CAD files for everything imaginable will go viral on the internet, people will be able to make procure one-off items that governments and their corporate partners will seek to prohibit.  An obvious class of item is firearms.  As the nearby picture shows, you will soon be able to make a, say, totally vanilla and unregistered semi-auto pistol.  And only your imagination will limit your own list of controlled articles that will be available to anyone with a printer.

    And that’s where the state will come in.  Because of the utter flexibility of what can be made, the state will quickly begin controlling 3D printing and the production of the necessary powdered forms of the materials and their bonding agents required in the process.  Unfortunately, this government/corporate control partnership will work against the creation of jobs that would be created in the thousands of small job shops and just-in-time manufactories across the land, and overseas.

    Most certainly this kind of printing will bring jobs back to the developed countries because the labor overhead is so low, and the transportation and distribution cost savings will be great.  It is such modes of creative destruction that the stasist factions of our society will try to prevent.  The interview with Cody Wilson of DefDist, pictured nearby, is revealing.  (H/T to reader for this link.)

    [28jan13 update]  iRobot filed a patent for autonomous all-in-one 3D printing, milling, drilling and finishing robot.  More here.

  • George Rebane

    [This is the linked transcript of my regular KVMR commentary which was broadcast on 18 January 2013.]

    UncleSamGimmeOK, the so-called New Year’s fiscal cliff has been avoided, and now it seems that the national hysteria over the Newtown shootings is on the ebb.  We may be able to return our attention to the awesome and real problem that faces our country and every American, whether they are paying attention or not.  That problem is the amount of our debt and unfunded obligations that is beyond the ken of the overwhelming fraction of our citizens.

    Washington’s dominant elites are in terminal denial about the problem and its impact.  Their solution to the mounting annual deficits, that have now grown to trillion dollar monstrosities, is the Big Lie – raise taxes on the rich and cut military spending, and all is well.  The tax rises were supposed to have been handled by Obama’s fiscal cliff victory legislation.  Don’t believe a word of it.  It took less than two weeks for the opening drums to begin beating for raising more taxes on everyone – including the formerly sacrosanct middle class.  Why?  Because that’s where the money is.

    But today things are so bad that taxes cannot be raised high enough to dent the debt.  Entitlements and transfer payment spending must also be drastically cut.  Problem is that there’s not a single Democrat who will acknowledge that, even while their own Congressional Budget Office is pointing out the obvious arithmetic involved.  Instead, we will attempt ‘solutions’ that involve even higher taxes and more regulations to stifle freedoms and economic growth.  In short, we are hell bent headed for the now defunct European model.  The WSJ reports that –

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  • George Rebane

    Do you notice that on all the media (Fox included) it’s a big no-no to piss off Muslims?  Now with all the action going on in Mali, Obama’s lie about Al Qaeda being on the ropes is exposed, and the reporters are again having to talk about “the war on terror” a lot.  But when they get down to reporting against whom the war is fought, they get all mushy and wind up calling them “Islamic militants”.  That’s it, there are no other enemies in that misnamed conflict called “the war on terror”, except the ragheads who keep killing innocent civilians by the thousands wherever and whenever they can do it.  But no one dare report that we are fighting ‘Islamic terrorists’, that’s a big no-no.  It is politically very incorrect to juxtapose Islam and terrorism, or to call them bad names like ragheads.  Those folks are only militants, you know, just like people all over who happen to be 'militating' for what’s good and right.

    And there’s more.  The WH spin is that Al Qaeda is just “shifting its focus” to north Africa, as opposed to expanding its operations from the middle East.  I don’t know, given all the stuff that’s going on and growing in Afghanistan as we prepare for our victorious exit, it sure looks like more than a little shift of focus is going on.  After all they are now operating in two theaters with boots on the ground and guns in hand, and kidnapping Americans.  Oh well, I hope everyone here knows who is fighting whom for what.

    Wonder what Hillary will say about Benghazi on 23 January?  Maybe it will be the Richard Pryor confession about when he screwed up heating his heroin or something – ‘Best we can tell, the ambassador and his aides were in the compound getting ready for bed.  They decided to have some milk and cookies in the kitchen before turning in.  And when one of them dunked a cookie into his glass of milk, suddenly the whole thing blew up.  Then a lot of people showed up.  It was terrible.  We really don’t know much more than that.’

    Oh yes, the gun banners have gained another public relations advance.  Recall that they went from wanting to ban guns to just ‘controlling’ them.  Well, after Newtown, outlets like National Propaganda Radio have been reporting on Joe Biden meeting with all kinds different groups in order to fashion his recommendations that the President received this week.  So here’s the new look for those who really don’t like guns in civilian hands, they’re now called the ‘gun safety groups’.  Yep, the whole 2nd Amendment debate will be divided into folks belonging to the ‘gun rights’ groups opposing the ‘gun safety’ groups.  Now which of you out there are against gun safety?

    Remember all that blather for months and years about not raising taxes on the middle class.  Bygones.  The guy needed to get re-elected, and dammit he had to promise something, don’t you see?  We now find out that taxes are going up for as long as this bunch is in Washington, and don’t you forget it.  Why?  Because that is the way we’re going to get the economy going again and reduce the deficits.  They’ve looked at the whole mess from every which way, and that’s clearly the only solution that will work.  Besides, you didn’t really think he wasn’t going to raise taxes on everyone who still pays them.  After all, there aren’t that many of us suckers left out there – it’s either us or who?

    Finally, we recall how responsive this White House was going to be to the people's inputs?  You know, using the internet and all that.  All it would take was 5,000 of you good folks out there signing a petition about some concern, then this White House would jump on the case and provide an answer.  Well, that was a bit low, lotta petitions – how about 10,000?  No, nope, that was still too many petitions.  Let’s make that 25,000.  Whoa! Now that didn’t work; how about we bump it to 50,000 little siggies required on a single petition.  Well hell! Whatsamatta you out there, no one got a job or nothin’, signing petitions alla time!!  Today the WH asked ‘how’s a cool 100,000 sound before we even peek into our inbox?’  I guess the real message is that all such bets are off until 2016 when Hillary can have a go at it.  In the meantime you all can shove your ‘vox populi’ up where the sun don’t shine.

    [18jan13 update]  I was waiting for John R Lott Jr to weigh in on the current gun ban imbroglio.  Lott has been the leading researcher on gun laws, and has published extensively on the subject.  In the 18jan13 WSJ he writes ‘The Facts About Assault Weapons and Crime’.  It’s worth a read, especially by those enthralled with all the ‘benefits’ to the safety of school children promised by Barack and Dianne when their next gun bans go into effect.  This is bullpucky season in spades, and it might help to throw in a fact or two on the matter, even if they are inconvenient.

  • George Rebane

    [Cautionary note to innumerate readers, this post will require some facility in basic arithmetic and an attention span.]

    BudgetCrisisEl Lider Fearless has issued his latest executive demand – no more congressional limits on accruing national debt.  “We are not a deadbeat nation,” Mr. Obama said. “And the consequences of us (sic) not paying our bills…would be disastrous.”  The dirty little secret that his constituents can’t grasp is that Obama’s fundamental transformation is taking us directly into that very same disaster, big time.  His offer to “accept responsibility for raising the debt limit if Congress voted to give him the authority” is meaningless pabulum.  What possible ‘responsibility’ could he accept in the matter of running up more debt, after having already added over $5T with impunity, and then being re-elected by his ‘stash’ shouting supporters.

    We will first dispose of the notion of defaulting on our debt service payments under the current debt limit of approximately $16.4T.  Then looking at the White House 2013 federal budget put out by its OMB, we see that projected total federal outlays are about $3.8T, with projected total tax receipts coming in at about $2.9T.  This leaves a deficit of $900B which must be borrowed.   When some other wiggle items are added to the amount to be borrowed, the real deficit rises to $1.2T and the national debt will then increase to about $17.5T.  (See Table S-15 in the Summary Tables)

    To service the debt at today’s very low interest rates will cost ‘only’ $250B in 2013 (Table S-5).  (When interest rates become real again, debt service costs will approach $1T; more later.)  I hope readers are beginning to appreciate that the debt service-to-GDP or debt service-to-budget are the real metrics which no one wants to make available and publish.  As I’ve pointed out many times before, the ever popular debt-to-GDP is a meaningless metric in guiding both fiscal and monetary policies, and that’s why interest rates are supremely important.

    So where are we with all this ‘default on our debt’ nonsense?  Our tax receipts are $2.9T and we have to pay our lenders $250B or about 8.6% of our receipts.  Therefore, there is no need to stiff our lenders unless we purposely want to create a financial crisis.  Even without raising the debt limit by one cent, we are not at risk of ruining our standing in the credit markets.

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  • George Rebane

    The 14dec12 Newtown massacre has been blown into a celebrated “crisis” for the nation’s gun ban contingent.  And President Obama has made certain that this crisis will also not go to waste in his overarching program that is fundamentally transforming America.  He gave VP Joe Biden the job of fashioning the next set of regulations that will further criminalize law abiding citizens who own and bear guns.  Remarkably (or not), Biden will present his panel’s rapidly reached conclusions and resulting recommendations within the next few days.

    MinutemenThe Second Amendment is one of the two or three major dividers in our ideologically polarized country.  And its public debate (mirrored in these pages) shines a bright light on the enormous differences that separate our self-declared progressives from those who consider themselves to be classic liberals and libertarians – more compactly labeled our Left and Right.

    The major element of debate about the extent of public ownership of guns is their beneficial functions, if any, in a free, open, and liberal society that intends to remain so.  These functions are summarized in gun uses for 1) self-defense, 2) sport (including hunting), and the maintenance of 3) par force (q.v.) against a government turned rogue.

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  • George Rebane

    The long running Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas is again in full swing showing off all kinds of new technical innovations, gizmos, and ongoing projects.  Absent again are the big guys like Microsoft, Apple, etc, but you can be sure that they have sent teams of attendees to see what's worth copying and buying.  (The big guys are so big that they no longer want to share the stage with other companies, since they can rent and fill an auditorium anywhere, any time they want to announce a new product.)

    CES continues to be the launch point for hundreds of companies who hope to interest the markets with their brain children.  Of course, the major attendees are the media of all stripes including the associations and institutes for engineering professionals.  IEEE has  put up a nice website that lets you peruse CES2013 from the comfort of your home.  Enjoy.

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