Rebane's Ruminations
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  • George Rebane

    Economic growth is now impacted by the sins of the recent past, so argue economists Phil Gramm (former chair of the Senate Banking Committee) and Thomas Saving.  In their ‘A Booming Economy Will Challenge the Fed’, they present a very readable explanation of how today “the monetary excesses of the Obama era represent the greatest impediment to igniting and sustaining a full-blown economic recovery.”  Fiscally we are between the rock and hard place long anticipated in these pages and elsewhere.  And our central bank does not a have a precise model (i.e. transfer function) of the economy to support computing a proper (control) policy for raising interest rates and selling off the considerable assets it bought under Obama.  Important stuff that the well-read RR readers will want to know.

    The Union’s pulp report on Nevada City pot dispensaries stimulated me to write them the letter below.  Their online report (paywalled here) is more informative and does include the applicant ratings misrepresented as rankings.  The ratings are uniformly high, averaging 86% of the maximum with a spread of about 6%.   This indicates that there’s not much difference between the three and, if there were a difference, then the rating factors were not chosen well enough to reveal such a difference.

    Dear People – The 15dec17 article on Nevada City’s pot dispensaries because “rankings” were substituted for what actually were ratings.  The three dispensary applicants were numerically rated on a number of factors which were combined into a summary rating for each applicant.  Then these ratings were ranked in descending numerical order.  For example, published ratings would provide more information to the public because they convey compactly and clearly three important pieces of information – how well the applicants satisfied the evaluation factors, whether and how the applicants qualifications differentiated, and, of course, their rankings.  Out of a 100 maximum, say that applicants [A,B,C] received ratings of [92, 65, 31], or [92, 89, 88], or [39, 32, 29] – each case would tell a completely different story about the applicants that is totally hidden by their identical rankings.  Ratings are always more informative than rankings, and the two should never be confused.

    The sexual harassment ambulance chasers are on the job and happy to help you, whether you need it or not.  Here is an example of their enthusiasm for cashing in on this new opportunity to litigate.

  • George Rebane

    [This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 13 December 2017.  As noted below this commentary was erecognized by KVMR last night during its annual awards ceremony held at the Miners Foundry.]

    ‘In these commentaries we have examined major trends like systemic unemployment, income inequality, and the notion of a Great Divide that may rend America across one of its ideological faults.’  This was the opening line of my KVMR commentary a little over four years ago (here).  In that piece we looked at the emergence of the new ‘cognitive class’ in America as studied and reported by renown sociologist and author Charles Murray in his book Coming Apart, published in 2013.  Much has happened in the interval as it affects our views of ourselves.  Today, we definitely have more than one picture of who we are and how we are composed.

    The main take away from that analysis was that since WW2 we have generated a new and enduring merit-based upper class of people sharing educational achievements and an understanding of the world.  And for some odd reason, such people wanted to hang around with others like themselves, a process called homogamy.  They tended to live together, socialize, and do business with each other.  Through their hard work, they also wound up being financially more successful than the rest of the country.  And as their wealth grew they began to be noticed by those with political ambitions and careers representing the not so wealthy.

    Economists, sociologists, and others of the bureaucratic bent in academe and government began to boost their own fortunes by pointing out that this cognitive class was enjoying the fruits of unjust inequality, while the rest of the country had to make do with the scraps that trickled down from them.  Something had to be done to restore social justice to the land, and government was just the agency to fashion public policies that would bring these people back to heel.  The underlying theory then, and still being promoted, was that these folks – now called the ‘1%’ – are a greedy bunch who were using underhanded loopholes to take money from the poor and middle class to fatten their wallets.  After all, everyone was taught in school that capitalism was no longer the engine of wealth creation, but the vehicle of greed and the foundation of the great zero-sum game – if they got more than you, then they must have taken some of what should rightly have been yours.

    In the same year 2013, French economist Thomas Piketty wrote Capital in the Twenty-first Century, which became the most successful academic treatise in modern times and landed on the NYT best seller list.  Piketty argued that capitalism by its very nature causes inequality, and is a danger to democracy which only government can cure through massive reform.  The lynchpin of his argument was that ‘patrimonial capitalism’ – wealth garnered through inheritance – was the bogeyman that had to be exorcised through what Bastiat called ‘legal plunder’.  The collectivist world cheered, but perhaps a bit too soon, because by 2014 Picketty’s theory began to unravel as more economic and demographic data was analyzed.

    Over these intervening years of re-evaluating Picketty, we now come to A Century of Wealth in America, the just released magnus opus of left-leaning NYU economics professor Edward Wolff, an expert in wealth and wealth disparity.  His treatise presents an in-depth analysis of how wealth is really generated and transferred from generation to generation.  For our socialist contingent, Dr Wolff’s inconvenient bottom line is that “in the US more than ¾ of all wealth is created anew in each generation, and the ‘1%’ is an overwhelmingly self-made group.”  There is much more to learn in Dr Wolff’s massive 865-page tome, but before diving in, you may first want to catch the high hard ones by reading the excellent review by UC Davis economist Gregory Clark, the link (here) to which is included in this commentary’s online transcript.

    My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on Rebane’s Ruminations where the transcript of this commentary is expanded and posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However, my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  But I do thank KVMR and its News Director Paul Emery for recognizing this commentary, now in its eighth year, with a ‘Certificate of Excellence’, awarded last night at the annual holiday dinner for the station’s staff and volunteers.  And during this holy season Jo Ann and I wish all of you a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah.  Thank you for listening.

    [Addendum]  It’s hard to include everything you want to say on a topic as complex as wealth dynamics in an economy in a 4-5 minute radio commentary.  My big concern with Wolff’s research is that the large cohort of impressionable lightly-read voters will either not get the message about the ‘1%’, or not understand the import of ¾ of all their wealth is created anew in each generation.  But the most important and untold part of this story involves how this new wealth is created, and then how it is managed by the 1% (we’ll use that label for the wealthier Americans).

    For every dollar that accrues to the 1%, that dollar is the leftover profit from the founding of countless businesses that created thousands of jobs and supplied products and services demanded by countless other people across the country and the world.  Other sources of such profits came from properly allocating capital to enterprises (buying equities and making loans) in which it was most valuable and useful.  And these risky activities continue as a matter of course in the management of the 1%’s portfolios, none of which get converted into ‘stuff’ (e.g. gold bars) and un productively hidden under a mattress.  Wolff’s analysis demonstrates that more often than not much of this wealth is lost by last generation’s 1%, and dispersed into the economy to be gathered and assembled again for new enterprises.  It is the nature of the capitalistic system that wealth is a dynamic resource that is constantly recycled for the betterment of all, and that includes those who are not able or willing to actively partake in growing the economy.

    As a coda to these observations, no one should expect the progressive (i.e. collectivist) faction of our society to understand and/or accept any of this, since doing so would utterly destroy their ideological narrative with which they seek an anti-capitalist alternative future for all of us.

  • [Well, let's really focus on what happened in Alabama, and how the Impeach Trump Initiative (ITI) will now proceed apace in Dem circles and in their coordinated lamestream.  2018 will be a mid-term election to remember.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    Has anyone noticed that the use of graphical presentation of data in the media has been on the rise for the last couple of years?  Led by the financial publications, as expected, newspapers have started featuring more and more charts and graphs to augment their reporting in areas such as political preferences, social policies, energy, medicine, … all far removed from finance and economics.  The charge has been led by the WSJ which has seen a flood of new graphics populating its pages.  (As a longtime subscriber, I was one of the little voices in the wilderness constantly calling for such an augmented presentation of news.)

    What’s more, the kinds of data and information presented graphically has steadily become more sophisticated, as have the types of graphics used – some of these are new and very innovative.  What prompted me to comment on this was a graph (here) in the 7dec17 WSJ showing the aggregate (correlative) behavior over time of the SP500 sectors.  Now most readers know that correlation in the usual sense means how dis/similarly TWO measurements behave over time (or space).  A correlation value of 1.0 means that the two are flying in perfect formation, a -1.0 means that one is perfectly zigging while the other is zagging, and anything near 0.0 means that the two measurements are doing their own thing while not paying attention to the other.

    But the referenced figure in Chelsey Dulaney’s article is a single measure (number) that communicates the cross-correlations between many (>2) measured sector performances.  There are several ways to compute such a cross-sectors aggregate correlation measure, and those of us who paid attention in our stat and estimation classes would have no trouble doing so.  But the point I want to make here is that the WSJ, a leading internationally known newspaper, now considers its readership to have enough smarts to benefit from such information displays, and understand the article in which Ms Dulaney expands on the correlative performance of the various sectors which has dropped precipitously in this decade.

    However, the real (non-technical) news here is that intellectual inequality is rampantly rising given the published test and poll results that report on the aggregate knowledge of our general population.  In other words, such mass market publications as the WSJ, Barron’s, Investors Business Daily, … are telling us that there is a growing, yet still small, cohort of intellectual elitists (IEs) that is pulling away from the massive dumbth that has settled over the rest of the population.  The social problem here is that these IEs are the ones who understand how the world works, and are therefore able to work and invest more profitably to generate the wealth which overwhelmingly (and here even the progressives agree) funds our governments and industries, creating jobs that fuel consumerism and its over 70% share of our economy (more here).

    But a closer examination of this separation of economic classes reveals that the rest of the population is also starting to grow restive as automation becomes a net jobs killer that creates new jobs which are harder to fill by the mis-educated, culturally crippled, and/or genetically disadvantaged.  The bottom line is that the overwhelming fraction of Americans remain innumerate, unable to qualify for the over two million jobs currently unfilled nationwide and unable to comprehend the vital details of the social issues before they enter the voting booth.

    So I, along with many others, remain in a quandary as to how we will deal with this yawning inequality, not only here in America, but in all developed countries.  The Left’s siren song to the masses invokes liberal use of the government gun to force surrender of our liberties in exchange for guarantees of merit-free equality (more here, here, and here).  Such enforced equality has always come at the cost of ever lower levels everyone’s quality of life, which fact is carefully concealed from those who are focused on their daily affairs. 

    [Addendum]  Here is a thoughtful information filled essay by economics professor Bryan Caplan on the utility of education in our society – ‘The World Might be Better Off Without College for Everyone’ – published in the Jan/Feb2018 Atlantic.  In these pages we have met Professor Caplan over the years (e.g. here).

    [10dec17 update]  Before astute readers take me to task, I want to point out that there is a distinct possibility that numeracy is not on the rise, and may instead be declining as a fraction of our population.  WSJ’s epiphany about its readership’s cognitive abilities may be totally independent of the state of numeracy in the land.  Such a burst in their use of complex graphical presentations of data and information can also profitably be undertaken in a knowledge environment wherein the number of WSJ readers stays more or less constant, while the innumerate population surrounding them increases, thereby relegating the numerate cohort to occupy a smaller and more noticeably 'unequal' segment of Americans.  To resolve this, we await the next installment of the Longitudinal Study of Adult American Literacy that is conducted decadally by the National Center for Education Statistics in the Department of Education.

    [11dec17 update] Kudos to George Boardman for his column in the 11dec17 Union that highlights the troglodyte ‘intellectuals’ who have and continue to oppose high speed broadband for western Nevada County based on their medieval knowledge of basic science (a component of numeracy).  As any piece of remote real estate in the country, NC needs to keep up with the technology that connects us to the rest of the world.  Our quality of life and economic development depends on nothing less.  Yet these leftwing primitives have done everything possible to oppose the erection of new transmission towers and other infrastructure that would support modern communications with the new G5 telecom protocols.  Their unfounded fears that such radio frequencies are supposed to cause harm include everything from brain cancer to the heartbreak of psoriasis.  The progressives like to characterize conservatives as hanging on to old, dysfunctional, and stultifying beliefs.  And the real truth has always been, that it is always the collectivists who are scared sans poop (that’s ‘shitless’ in French) of change because they know they can’t handle it as demonstrated by their perennial ignorance of what motivates human behavior.  It is the capitalists (not to be confused with the corporatists), on the other hand, who relish the freedoms that support change and the constant challenge of new horizons.  Even though Mr Boardman is no capitalist, his column (here) is worth a read to get an update of the liberals’ impact on our community.

  • [GregG's last comment in the 5dec17 Sandbox captured the bets made around the Rebane household and at a shindig we had here last night.  It seems that no one believes Sen Frankenstein will go quietly into that good night.  The most money is on his fervent hope that all this sex assault stuff will die down sufficiently in the coming weeks so that he can say 'Just kidding' about making a clean exit from the Senate.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    ‘The Merge’ is the new label for progress toward transhumanism.  RR readers have been aware of this phenom for some years now.  Today such merging of Man and machine has entered the popular forums, and in some is starting to raise concerns about who will get to merge and to what extent such joinings will become ubiquitous or merely reserved for some elite cohort.  Here is what entrepreneur, programmer, and blogger Sam Altman writes about it. (H/T to reader)  Sadly, Altman, along with a growing number of other late comers, does not understand the original and precise definition of Singularity – they confuse a specific instant with an extended period of time (which deserves its own name).  More on the Singularity here and here.

    PepperSalt171208Western culture is on the ropes; Islam has existentially achieved its early goals of changing what we believe and the way we live.  This morning on KXPR, Sacramento’s Capital Public Radio music station, declared that they now offer listeners “real alternative music – classical during the day and jazz at night”.  It was not that long ago when both classical and jazz were the mainstay music of western cultures; now it has become “alternative music” in the view of our progressive culture leaders.  I suppose that means that ‘throw-away music’ is now the new mainstay of the musical component of our new culture.  This kind of music has been gaining ground for at least the last half-century.  It consists of ‘songs’ that are here today, out of mode and memory tomorrow, and delivered into countless categories through countless channels, leaving the listener with no anchor in that dimension of cultural art.  This cultural disintegration is part and parcel of how placidly we have adopted to being searched for weapons at every turn of our daily lives, lest some of us decide to murder and maim in the service of God or some aberrant gollum.  Note the new norm simply portrayed as a point of humor in the accompanying Pepper & Salt cartoon from the 8dec17 WSJ.

    “Jerusalem, Jerusalem, you who kill the prophets and stone those sent to you, …”  President Trump is to be lauded for his recent recognition of the city as Israel’s eternal capital, a compelling reality that has been recognized in the west since biblical times.  I’m not sure as to why he did that now instead of earlier this year, but doing it is a latent sign of wisdom yet to be recognized by those who have succumbed to Einsteinian insanity.  The same may be said about the President’s policy toward the murderous fat kid in charge of NK.  Again, those counseling sclerotic and redundant rectitude must answer to the charge of their own form of Einsteinian insanity, as that rogue nation continues on the road to deliverable nuclear weapons sworn to be launched against the US mainland.

    Should the government of a putatively free people, force a private business, under threat of prison or worse, to operate at a loss or raise prices to all of its customers in order to suffer the additional cost of providing some marginal product or service for the sole benefit of certain customers imposed under threat of force upon the business?  That again is the surprising question today roiling lamestream-managed public opinion when it comes to such issues as renting to the disabled who require special accommodations, and/or mandating the fashioning of custom made products to a certain cohort of customers, products that are distasteful and violate the religious beliefs of the business owner.

    [10dec17 update]  America’s Deep State is very real, pernicious, cynical, and toxic to citizens who challenge its modus operandi let alone the legitimacy of its existence.  So argues Mark Steyn in a very persuasive article, ‘The Land of Mini-Coups’, wherein he analyzes the (non)workings of the Mueller investigatory roulette wheel.  Exhibit A is the recent mea culpa of Mike Flynn for lying to the FBI about a ‘non-crime’, which itself is a specious felony, that has nothing to do with Mueller’s commission to investigate Russia’s alleged influencing of the 2016 election.  Trigger warning – reading the piece will make your toes curl the wrong way if you are not a progressive for whom all this is simply water off the back of their established narrative.  (H/T to RR reader)

    … and in the Poetry Department, we have a submission from a correspondent –

    A Bayesian prof named Myers/ Says tenure is all he desires./ But his dreams won’t be met,/ He’ll be fired, I bet,/ When they catch him adjusting his priors.

     

  • George Rebane

    I was going to leave be our little conversation on RL Crabb’s blog (here), but subsequent defenders of Bob’s political art motivate me to ask for someone to fill in the question on the right side of the little ‘fair and balanced’ see-saw below.  Bob has long maintained that he views the world from some pristine, non-ideological middle, as he doles out his wit and barbs equally at both sides.  The record does not support that assertion.  But then, I have never claimed the ability to properly place the fulcrum in these matters.  Everyone else seems to know how to do that; I must have been standing in the wrong line when that skill was being handed out.  In any event, what political art from the Right would balance such an assault on President Trump’s whole family?

    Fair&Balanced-2017
     

  • [Does anyone think that, absent Donald Trump's presidency, we would ever have heard anything more of Hillary's extended career of corruption and criminality?  Me neither.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    California’s land use and housing crisis continues in full swing, and is caused by Sacramento abetted by local loonies in county and city governments.  Here is a piece by some heavy weight economists at the Hoover Institution to give you a measure of the ongoing insanity in our state.

    IRS scumbag Lois Lerner, guilty but unindicted for using the IRS to attack conservative political organizations, now wants the courts to seal her incriminating testimony, arguing that people will be so incensed by her admissions that her personal safety will be threatened.  (more here)

    The proverbial ‘Man on a White Horse’ political savior appears more and more acceptable to our electorate when he decides to make an appearance to unify and save the nation, whether you like it or not.  One can draw this conclusion by looking at the rise of superhero movies, videos, TV series, computer games, etc that entertain, simplify the world, and give comfort to so many.

    What most lefties miss about the Second Amendment is that, unlike the states’ national guards, militias were neither standing nor organized military units, but were spontaneously assembled when the need arose – ‘Grab your gun and come!’  Hence, one more reason to have an armed citizenry to counter both external and internal threats to our freedoms.

    [5dec17 update]  The Left’s perpetual wrath against lowering corporate taxes ignores the benefit to working people’s retirement funds benefitting from higher corporate profits (the causal chain is too difficult for them to handle), and that includes retirement funds like CALPERS and CALSTRS taxpayers provide for terminally progressive government workers that have massive unfunded liabilities.  Those anticipatory benefits are already in the stock portfolios of such funds.

    Religious freedom for all except the Christians.  In progressive America when minority religions (often speciously and/or gratuitously) argue lack of religious freedom, they are seen as the persecuted.  When Christians do so to oppose obvious government mandates against their beliefs, they are held up in the public eye as promoting “hatred”.  (more here)

    Bob Crabb’s cartoon in the 5dec17 Union – filched, feted, and featured below – is a feeble attempt by RR to present readers some fair and balanced content, an editorial policy which it has decidedly rejected over its long residence in our community.  (And that  for the simple reason that watashi-wa, as opposed to other worthies in the blogosphere and the media, has no idea about what you, dear reader, consider fair or where to place the fulcrum.)

    RLCrabb171205

    [6dec17 update]  RR reader and climate change skeptic Greg Goodknight lambasted by true believer Mick Tuttle in the 6dec17 Union (here).  Mr Tuttle believes that preventable man-made global warming is happening, and that there is a scientific consensus which confirms an ongoing catastrophic global warming trend caused by humans pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, a discharge, if greatly reduced, will prevent the impending temperature catastrophe.  Fortunately, such a comprehensive consensus neither exists, nor is there undisputed evidence for the much-publicized catastrophic portents, nor do we have a clue about how to prevent such a rapid climate change were it actually happening.

    Millennials weigh in on capitalism and socialism (here), which they don’t consider all that bad since they’ve learned that it really need not be connected to communism, which is also really not that bad.  Ahh, the joys of having educated our young.

    [7dec17 update]  The House passed a bill that would make CCWs issued by one state legal in all states, just like drivers’ licenses.  The Democrats strongly object and instead want to expand their policy that limits concealed guns only to the criminal class.  For decades they have demonstrated the benefits of this policy in the cities and towns under their political jurisdiction.

  • [The Christmas season is nigh – share some cheer and family plans on how the holidays will be spent.  And here is the new spirit of Christmas in OUR White House.  gjr]

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