George Rebane
All socio-economic problems depend on their numbers, not understanding these replaces reasonable discussion with emoting.
The ‘great replacement conspiracy’ is the latest kerfuffle to rise to national prominence. The Left is accusing the Right of fostering this theory of dark-skinned immigrants and illegal aliens being welcomed into America to outvote and outbreed the European-descended whites. (more here, here, here, here) History tells us that such replacement concerns first started in France long ago, and in the US ascendant Democrats have crowed for years, and continue to do so today, that the Republicans are being replaced as their party shrinks. But no matter where it started, the point I want to develop is that in our innumerate nation, almost everyone today is ignorant of what replacement means and really is. And the evil party is using this ignorance to continue to divide us. So let’s clear up some cobwebs in order to correctly assess what all the fuss is about.
The general notion of replacement requires first and foremost the existence of a defined ‘container’, be it a region of square miles full of people, a jug that can hold fluids, or a bowl containing different colored marbles. Given the container, we now have to consider two distinct cases. Case1 in which the container has a not-to-exceed carrying capacity, and Case2 in which the container’s carrying capacity is not limited.
Case1. Suppose we have a small bowl that can hold five marbles, and to start, it contains three Amarbles and two Bmarbles. We all understand that if Bmarbles are reduced to one by adding one Amarble or one Cmarble, that Bmarbles are being replaced both in their absolute number and in their share of the bowl’s contents (going from 40% to 20%), now leaving the A, B, C marble count at 3, 1, 1 respectively. No one should have a problem understanding this kind of replacement.
But is it possible for replacement to occur if a categorical population (e.g. Bmarbles) remains unchanged or even increases? Well yes, this gives us Case2 where we suppose Amarbles increase by two to five, Cmarbles double to two, and Bmarbles remain unchanged at one. Now the share of Bmarbles has dropped from 20% to 1/8 or 12.5%. The Bmarble share has definitely been replaced by the greater shares of Amarbles and Cmarbles.
The more interesting Case2 scenario is when the number of all three kinds of marbles increases over time. Let’s suppose that Amarbles increase at the rate of 4/year, Bmarbles at 1/year, and Cmarbles at 3/year. If at the beginning of the year we had A, B, C marbles numbering 3, 1, 1 respectively, then at the end of the year they would number 7, 2, 4. So focusing on Bmarbles, we see their number double, but their share drop from 20% to about 15%. Again, Bmarbles had 5% of their share replaced by the population increase which was taken up by the shares of Amarbles and Cmarbles. So it’s easy to see that replacement can take place in populations that also increase over time, but only at a rates lower than that of the other population cohorts.






