[Apologies for such a big interval between fresh sand. Too many other good topics to address directly. gjr]

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George Rebane
The shameful declines of Scientific American and NPR. In days of yore, both media outlets were posterchildren of professional and responsible journalism. And during the last twenty years both have embarked on a shameful decline that shows no signs of stopping. SA, published continuously since the 1840s, served as the periodic and apolitical compendium of scientific advances served up for the intelligent reader. No longer. Today it has subverted to a progressive propaganda organ that sees all aspects of science as being race-based, and promotes a fundamental change to scientific enquiry founded on Marxist class/racist principles (here). We have already covered the decline of what is now National Propaganda Radio which serves as the publicly funded ($100M annually) voice of the Democratic Party, tilting daily more to its radically woke wing (here). What pisses me to the gills is the amount of its taxpayer funding that the Republicans have been silent about for years.
Comparative corruption in global governance. In an ongoing discussion with a friend and correspondent who is a retired international banker, we have focused on the existence of corruption in almost all governments, and which countries do better than others to actively control corruption. My friend spent many years stationed in various countries and experienced first hand their inner workings which were very much in evidence through their baking and financial institutions. Costa Rica is the standout anti-corruption posterchild in the otherwise terminally corrupt gaggle of Latin American nations. Many thousands of American expatriates have retired to Costa Rica, and now call it their home while maintaining their US citizenship. The chart below (compiled by the World Bank in its Worldwide Governance Indicators) provides a basis for that emigration over the years. I am surprised to see that the US rated so high, given its recent decline from the rule of law (and constitutionalism), and the growth of an obviously corrupt ‘deep state’ bureaucracy.
[9jan22 update] ‘More Good News on Ivermectin’ and more evidence that the politicization of the Covid-19 pandemic cost millions of preventable deaths. So have the physicians and researchers of “the Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) been calling for widespread adoption of Ivermectin, both as a prophylactic and for the treatment of all phases of COVID-19.” History will record that what has happened in the last two years across the globe has been one of greatest politically motivated mass murders on record. And those complicit can never admit to their perfidy in promoting the proscription of this effective, readily available, and demonstrably safe medicine, for the adjudication of their criminality would require the empaneling of a Nürnberg-like court, and this will never happen. Nevertheless, the record of this unrequited tragedy should always remain available. Dark days indeed.
[10jan22 update] Our housecleaner closed down after 30 years in the business. She and her excellent crew have been part of our extended family for half of those years. In her letter to us she cited the reasons for quitting as the usual litany of California’s war against entrepreneurship and capitalism – taxes, stifling regulations from all levels, varying Covid mandates, government checks for not working, and so on. And sadly, she was not able to give us a reference to another local housecleaning business. The reason? In Nevada County she was the last holdout against the state’s anti-business winds, all of the other reputable housecleaners preceded her in pulling the plug. More signs of the times.
North Carolina Lt Gov Mark Robinson on reparations. This two minute video (here) of his last year’s speech to the state’s GOP is guaranteed to moisten your eyes and send chills down your spine, unless you are a Democrat doing plantation maintenance in the country’s urban areas.
[12jan22 update] Government of the elites, by the elites, and for the elites. More information continues to be made public about the large-scale perfidy promoted by various agencies of the federal government and gratuitously integrated into the radical progressive policies in practice and promoted by the Democratic Party through its control of the administration and Congress. Project Veritas has obtained documents that shed more light on what our government has done in promoting overseas gain-of-function research and suppression of the demonstrated benefits of Hydrochloroquine and Ivermectin in the treatment of Covid in all its phases. This lends further credence to the allegations that senior government officials like Dr Fauci have purposively misled the American public and contributed to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans and millions across the world. H/T to reader. (More here and here)
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45 comments on Dark Days Diary – 8jan22 (updated 12jan22) -
George Rebane
Calling and pursuing the 6jan21 Capitol riot as an ‘insurrection’ is the new litmus test for identifying those of the Left in America.
Countless leftwing naïfs across the country – e.g. Tom Durkin (here) in the 6jan22 Union – are decrying the “death of democracy”, which supposedly started with what they call a rightwing insurrection last January. What happened then was anything but an insurrection planned and executed to destroy American democracy and replace its government. Look up the definition of ‘insurrection’ and read some history on real insurrections. In the meantime we may take these 'insurrections' as coming from the semantically challenged and politically agendized.
For other perspectives on the 6jan21 riot attended by rightwingers and Trump supporters, I call your attention to two WSJ pieces – ‘Democracy Isn’t Dying’ and ‘Stop Calling Jan.6 an Insurrection’. From such perspectives we can reasonably conclude that 1/6 now conveniently serves the Left's agenda to define our division, and also to divide us further.
Victor Davis Hanson ties a nice bow on what the Democrats are actually pursuing in Washington and nation wide in his ‘Who are the Real Insurrectionists?’ It is clear to all who pay attention that the Dems have only one tune to play for their 2022 chances with an obviously debilitated and failing administration.
Recently, Democrats have been despondent over President Joe Biden’s sinking poll numbers. His policies on the economy, energy, foreign policy, the border and COVID-19 all have lost majority support. As a result, the Left now variously alleges that either in 2022, when they expect to lose the Congress, or in 2024, when they fear losing the presidency, Republicans will “destroy democracy” or stage a coup. A cynic might suggest that they praise democracy when they get elected, only to claim it is broken when they lose. Or they hope to avoid their defeat by trying to terrify the electorate. Or they mask their own revolutionary propensities by projecting them onto their opponents. (emphasis added)
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George Rebane
Here’s a little something from my financial engineering toy box that one or two RR readers may find interesting. The discussion is a tiny bit technical, but the pictures should be accessible to all. Most investors know that a stock’s beta (Greek β) is a number that indicates how well the security tracks its market, say, the SP500. And rho (Greek ρ) measures the correlation between, say, the price series of two stock’s – the way they both zig and zag together, or how much one zigs while the other zags. I’ll try to keep this short.
From august sources like Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) by nobelists Markowitz and Sharpe, we learn that if a stock’s β equals one, then it more or less goes up and down in similar percent changes with the market. If β > 1, then the stock’s swings have a greater percentage than the market’s; and if β < 1, then the stock’s swings behave in a more reserved manner than do the market’s. Riskier stocks have the bigger swings, and more conservative stocks have the smaller swings. The referenced formula (here) for beta reflects this with its inclusion of the standard deviation of the price swings.
As stated above, ρ measures in how tight of a formation two stocks will fly. The range of ρ is between +1 and -1, with the positive values indicating tighter formations, and ρ = 1 denoting a perfectly tight formation matching each other’s zigs and zags. A small or zero ρ means that the stocks pretty much act independently of each other. In designing your investment portfolio from a selected shortlist of stocks, MPT teaches that you should try to avoid stocks that pair with high ρ values. Doing probabilistic math recommends that you pick stocks that pair with the lowest ρ values possible to give you a low volatility (i.e. low risk) portfolio.
Now after you understand all that, we’re going to throw a monkey wrench into the whole thing, a little bit of information you will not hear from your well-paid wealth advisor who manages your portfolio. (Drum roll please.) Betas and rhos, calculated from past performance, are pretty much worthless measures of securities performance for portfolio design. Why? Well, that answer depends on what is known as the investor’s ‘investment horizon’. That’s the period into the future over which the investment plan is supposed to hold with numbers such as expected portfolio appreciation, its most likely upper and lower limits, and so forth.
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George Rebane
Eight days with no power on Hind Tit Rd. We have received the same lame information-less message five times from PG&E, telling us that they have access to our area and are starting to assess the outage to see what must be done to restore power. Not even a hint of any schedule or estimate of how long we have to stay hunkered down. We're a stone's throw from the Rood Center, and there is total access to our ridge, the outage up here is no doubt due to some problem at a local distribution facility, which you’d think would be easier to fix than having to wait until trees are cleared from the road and downed power lines are restrung. At every turn they demonstrate another function or task of which they are incapable. But hey, their outage map is looking better today than yesterday. Some day it’ll be our turn.
The next worry on everyone’s mind is propane or gasoline for their generators. Gasoline appears to be available – we trade at Robinson’s and they are doing their job with their fuels. My supplier is Amerigas, with whom I’ve been a 45-year customer. They have promised to resupply me before the sun sets on Wednesday. Most people have already run out or are about to with not even a promise of their next delivery. Calling a propane company today will have you listening to some very irritating elevator music for almost an hour or so until you go to Plan B. Amerigas’ online account management is up, and they confirmed my delivery schedule in writing (of which I took a screen image) for what good that will do. In any event, many others are really faring poorly. It’s amazing how many people – especially the elderly and infirm – are stuck in their homes with no preparation at all for when the grid goes down. Grandson-in-law Shawn, owner of Estey Electric, has been doing yeoman’s work during these las days with his crews and coordinating Project Haart teams of volunteers to do everything from getting generators going, bringing food and fuel, and clearing driveways. These people are a blessing to the community.
Kudos to the Supes for getting Nevada County declared a disaster area. Can anyone actually tell if that designation has yet to benefit us?
[4jan22 update] California’s incompetence on parade – dumping untold amounts of water into the Pacific Ocean. H/T to reader for the links (here and here) that tell the story of the Democrats’ eternal incompetence when it comes to governance and regulating public affairs. In the last two years we have pissed away a 7-year water supply from our reservoirs in a state blessed with abundant water that comes to us interspersed with dry years – a centuries old climate phenomenon in this part of the West (that’s why God invented reservoirs). But again, ‘the fault dear reader is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are the terminally ignorant voters.’ (with apologies to The Bard.)
"I've got a few bones to pick with recent columns", so writes Mr Richard Borlik in the 30dec21 Union. He does a good job outlining all the left-leaning and politically correct (cum woke) editorial and news pieces to which The Union is prone. And kudos to the newspaper for having the balls to publish such a forthright criticism of its editorial and news policies.
[7jan22 update] How far we are apart. A longtime RR reader and commenter, well-known to our regulars, is a dedicated leftwinger as evidenced by years of his comments on various subjects that decorate these pages. He recently put another shot across my bow in a discussion thread by not only refusing to read a citation I gave him, but pre-emptively declaring that its author is a “totally non credible source”, not to be believed or trusted. I was advised to “try again.” The author, Victor Davis Hanson, is a noted historian and scholar (Stanford professor) who is nationally known, and who many Americans consider a national treasure. He is also acknowledged as an astute observer of the country’s socio-political scene, and has an extensive contribution of published books, scholarly papers, and articles regularly appearing in prominent publications. He is also interviewed frequently by a spectrum of media outlets for his views on current events, which he is uniquely able to connect with historical perspectives. No one has ever accused or shown VDH to fly loose with his assessments or falsify any factual content in his writings. Nevertheless, dedicated leftists abhor him because he is intellectually unassailable, and his presentations devastate the progressive narrative and established public policies. If people like VDH are not accepted by the Left, then there truly is no possibility of dialogue.
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George Rebane
2022 will be another pivotal year in a growing string of such recent years. Most predictions, save the premature happy dancing by Republicans, range between dour and cataclysmic. A reader gives us a taste of that by pointing to James Howard Kunstler’s entry in Clusterfuck Nation with his ‘Forecast 2022 – Dumpster Fire Blazing on the Frontier of a Dark Age’. So here are some of my prognostications with an invite for readers to add their own. Please try to submit your entries before the first week of 2022 becomes history.Since we know predicting is hard, especially about the future, and very little is certain, I will attach some quantitative probabilities to my efforts, and invite others to do the same. We can then even determine who wins the 2022 Nostradamus Award, as I demonstrate in the coda.
- Bumblebrain will not be president on 1 January 2023 (0.5); will not be president on 21 January 2025 (0.4); will serve out his full term (0.1).
- Kamala will resign before 2022 election (0.6).
- Covid will revert from pandemic to declared endemic (like the flu) status before 4 July 2022 (0.7).
- Republicans will win the House in 2022 (0.8).
- Republicans will win the Senate in 2022 (0.7).
- Russia will invade Ukraine in 2022 (0.55).
- China will invade Taiwan in 2022 (0.25).
- Fed declared inflation will exceed 10% in 2022 (0.25).
- Republicans will win at least 14 House seats from California (0.8).
- The 25th Amendment will be used to designate a new Vice President before the 2024 election (0.75).
More later, maybe.
Such a list of probability tagged predictions may be scored simply by taking the average of the ‘correct’ probabilities – i.e. probabilities that associate with the cases that come to pass. For instance, in my list, if everything comes to pass with with Biden serving out a full term, Kamala does not resign, and China does not invade Taiwan, then my Nostradamus score – which ranges between 0 and 1 – would be (0.1+0.4+0.7+0.8+0.7+0.55+0.75+0.25+0.8+0.75)/10 = 0.58.
Jo Ann and I wish all of our readers and correspondents a productive and healthy new year.
[1jan22 update] I just want to emphasize the reason for my #6 and #7 predictions. Everyone in the world save America’s Democrat-prone electorate knows that the Team Biden is the weakest, most feckless, incompetent, and ignorant leadership the US has installed in the last 50 years (yes, even beating out the peanut farmer). For either of Putin or Xi to invade would be a win for them ou two counts. First, whatever our response, Americans tend to support their president during times of crisis. That will assure a continuance in power of the weak and feckless Democrats. Second, they get to achieve the next notch in their geo-strategic goals with the new territory they will then control. What’s not to like in creating another crisis that Bumblebrain can’t handle?
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[Well, the old year is going out like a lion. The whole county got plastered with its biggest snow storm in years, and there's more to come. Power went out 1215 this morning, and our new 24KW powerbox has been humming along ever since. Everybody will be ordering propane. Time to hunker down, stay warm, and pray for RAIN. gjr]
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George Rebane
[This entry is posted as part of an occasional addition to RR’s My Story category as an expanding part of my autobiography. It may be of limited interest to readers as a period piece describing part of an America that sadly is long gone. It was an epoch that goes a long way to illustrate today’s generational differences in our culture, values, mores, and sense of nationhood.]
I was a teenager in the 1950s and we all had jobs in addition to home chores, school work, and after school activities (I played basketball). We lived in the rural outskirts of Indianapolis before moving to California in 1957. I did odd jobs for neighbors throughout the year and was much in demand because my dad and school shop classes had taught me to do almost everything required to build/repair a residential house. But my first regular work was as a field hand for Jack Maschmeyer, my school bus driver who along with his wife Mary ran a small truck farm growing specialty crops a couple of miles from my house.
The farm work started in late April and lasted through September. I got to Jack’s farm on my bike, and was there joined by three other teenagers. The four of us made up the vetted and proven core team of field hands that enabled the Maschmeyers to run their operation. Jack was a no-nonsense ‘Dutchman’ (WW1 veteran) who taught his charges carefully and put them through a probationary period before being welcomed as a permanent member. While we did many stoop-labor tasks and harvested several kinds of crops (e.g. field tomatoes, cantaloupes, strawberries, …), our main work always included the daily cutting of about 5 acres of asparagus, an amazingly fast-growing plant – we would always hear the hiss from the field as we prepared to go home in the evening. The white noise came from countless new spears pushing up through the dried husks of previously cut spears.
Cutting asparagus with speed and accuracy was the most skill-demanding job on a truck farm; a bad cutter was slow and usually destroyed the following day’s crop by imprecisely making broader thrusts with his V-bladed knife than was required to harvest the mature spear which had grown about a foot in the past 24 hours, and was packed cheek-by-jowl with the immature spears for tomorrow or the next day. Jack hired no bad cutters; these came and went real fast when we had turnover. Mary always sent us boys home with some produce, usually a bunch of freshly cut asparagus which my mom didn’t know how to cook – she boiled it to death, which was the Nordic way with most vegetables.
But the point I want to make here is that America’s society worked because teenagers also worked. We did countless jobs that included paper routes, yard work of all kinds (this was before Mexican gardeners), house chores, clean-up and construction jobs, etc. Suburban America’s yards looked good because the local teenagers kept them that way within win-win compacts with neighbors. There was no concern for child labor laws, regulations, wage levels, age restrictions, workers comp and liability insurance, … . The work contract was between the neighbor-in-need and the kid looking to work. Relationships were struck that lasted for years, usually until the young person’s school required transitioning to more serious jobs like farm work or clerking in local stores (Jo Ann’s teenage jobs).
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