Rebane's Ruminations
November 2026
S M T W T F S
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930  

ARCHIVES


OUR LINKS


YubaNet
White House Blog
Watts Up With That?
The Union
Sierra Thread
RL “Bob” Crabb
Barry Pruett Blog

  • George Rebane

    During this election season we’re going to be hearing a lot about populism and the populist positions that certain candidates on both sides will be taking.  What the heck is populism anyway?  When you google populism you get over one million hits that help illuminate (obfuscate?) this term – everything from esoteric definitions from the academics to historical citations as to its occurrence during various bygone political campaigns.  The notion and term definitely appears to be of American origin, probably because we have led the world in political diversity and in holding wide-open, free-swinging elections.

    I was going to wordsmith a definition of populism according to my lights, but then I ran into a well-written one on Wikipedia that sounds about right, and that I believe will serve most of us.

    Populism is the use of discourses, ideas or policies which try to appeal to "the people" by setting up a dichotomy between "the people" and "the elite". This populist appeal to "the people" has often been associated with an emotional appeal to identities, including national, class, ethnic and regional ones.

    This suggests that candidates who are populists or use populistic arguments often chase opinion polls and/or the votes of people who are most prone to emotional appeals.  The definite implication here is that the politician who uses populist arguments has at best a malleable political philosophy or at worst is unprincipled – it pays for us to find out how long he’s been with the message that we hear today.   The overarching goal is to get elected no matter what the message du jour has to be.  The second implication is that the populist politician is playing to the electorate’s “dumbth” (term coined by the late Steve Allen) the effectiveness of which tactic was recently corroborated and reported in The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies by Bryan Caplan.  Exciting times.

  • George Rebane

    Dear Reader, I hope that you and your family have survived another hectic holiday season with health, hearth, and hoard more or less intact.  Jo Ann and I wish you all a Happy 2008!

    My apologies for being absent from these pages during the last week.  For Christmas we drove to soCal to attend a big family celebration and also spend some dinners with friends and more family.  Since returning I have been busy, literally day and night, with my SESF colleagues in completing the report of a substantial study of unfunded liabilities that currently burden the city and county governments of Nevada County.  Over the past year this research was ably shouldered by SESF’s Executive Director, Mike McDaniel.  There were many meetings reviewing financical data along with input from concerned elected officials for which we are grateful. The results of the study are documented in the technical report TR0712-1: Undfunded Liabilities – Our Community’s Fiscal Time Bombs which can be accessed here.

    Unfunded liabilities at all levels of government are usually below the radar of public attention except when a financial catastrophe, like the recent one in Orange County, occurs.  Well folks, the problem has quietly continued to grow until it has now become a monster of more than a TRILLION (that’s a million million) dollars across the land.  Almost all of this non-existent money has been promised to government employees as they retire.  There are only two ways to defuse such time bombs – take more money from the taxpayers and/or renege on the promises made to the employees.  The SESF report details the available data on the major unfunded liabilities of our county. However, even it does not yet paint the complete picture. 

    Whether by design or happenstance, the funding of government employees and officials’ benefits packages is a murky matter.  The recent across-the-board raises given in Grass Valley is an example of how little of its total impact was revealed to the city’s taxpayers and the larger community.  Therefore, in its role as a non-profit, non-partisan Nevada County public policy analysis resource, SESF plans to update the current report with later editions and issue supporting information as it becomes available.  In the interval, please visit the SESF website and blog for updates as they develop.

    (I am the co-author of the report, and, as most of you know, the SESF Director of Research.)

  • George Rebane

    The mantra of the PEAs (Post-Enquiry Adherents) is that “the debate is over” regarding climate change and their nostrums for its remediation.  That is the only tactic that the PEAs have left to push through their agenda.  The agenda calls for unifying the world to combat what they know is a man-made calamity that can be man-unmade if we would all just get along and go along.  This morning’s Investor’s Business Daily editorial is a comprehensive call for opening up the debate since the claimed scientific consensus is nothing more than sham propaganda.  For more on the recent hard evidence re global warming that concerns us skeptics, please visit NC Media Watch.

  • George Rebane

    [These two pieces by Dick Dickenson and me were written  last summer and assembled on 5 August 2007.  Our friend Pat Tobin suggested that they might see light of day in The Union, however, these words were judged inappropriate for the paper's readership and now appear here as we prepare to greet election year 2008.]

    Over the last several months my friend James R. Dickenson (author and retired national affairs journalist for The Washington Post) and I have been discussing the current polity of our country and where all the various domestic and international stirrings may be taking us as a nation and a people.  We are both students of history and avid observers of humanity’s fears and foibles with careers well placed to peer into the foggy future.  A couple of weeks ago I asked Dick to draft the most likely landscape of our world twenty years out.  Dick responded with a comprehensive piece (appended hereto), and in a return email asked me to likewise pen my view, which is the present piece.  So here we have two offerings – Dick’s view from the perspective of a respected and nationally known member of our fourth estate, and a self-declared New Deal Democrat; and mine as a WW2 era immigrant, career technocrat, and entrepreneurial capitalist. Our mutual friend Pat Tobin had the idea that, perhaps, this exchange should see a broader audience.  The interested reader may google both of us for more details on our backgrounds.

    Our prognostications differ markedly, one can even say they are diametrical.  There are many aspects of my own vision which disturb me. Against these I continue to work, in-spired by the words of Bonaro Overstreet’s ‘Stubborn Ounces’.

    You say the little efforts that I make
    will do no good; they never will prevail
    to tip the hovering scale
    where justice hangs in balance.

    I don’t think I ever thought they would.
    But I am prejudiced beyond debate
    in favor of my right to choose which side
    shall feel the stubborn ounces of my weight.

    As a systems scientist my musings often take a structured form which allows certain (de)formed brains to more easily understand and manipulate such arcane notions.  To me the future will be determined by and fashioned from the confluence of several major geo-political and technology related themes –

    • The under-educated American worker confronting globalization and the onrush of human-transforming technology (aka The Singularity).
    • Immigration and the worldwide movement toward mono-culturalism.
    • China’s emergence as the pre-eminent economic then political power on earth.
    • The demise of republican democracies on a global scale.

    The pdf containing the complete 'Two Twenty Year Views' may be downloaded here Download Two Twenty Year Views_070805 .

  • George Rebane

    • NC downtown patrols cut back
    • More disclosures
    • Climate Change in Greenland
    • Sub-prime lending – from mess to madness
    • 18dec07 Union article on ‘new road to economic revitalization’
    • ‘A Return to Ritual’ in churches and temples
    • Gracian #146

    The Union reports that Nevada City’s downtown is again filling with hooligans and other low lifes now that we only have one cop on the downtown beat.  Our newspaper described these individuals in more genteel terms – “people” and “young people” – which makes them sound vanilla and unobtrusive.  We read that the merchants report “(p)eople smoking marijuana openly, spitting on the sidewalk, throwing garbage onto the street, feeding or even abusing their dogs, forcing other pedestrians to step into the roadway and acting with hostility toward those who ask them to shape up are problems getting little response from the authorities”.  The fact that these misfits were not labeled, left the readers to rummage around for the proper insensitive names which would referentially differentiate them from the polite company that usually inhabit our sidewalks.  It makes one hanker for the old days when the police chief would talk with the delinquents and explain the matter to them – using appropriate explicatory methods and field expedients understood by even the dullest – without having to be “very sensitive to citizen rights”, those rights which allow us to gather and assault other citizens without recourse.  The good people of those times had trustworthy and able constables who could be empowered to do the obviously right thing that has over the years become not so obvious today.  I guess it will get worse before it gets better – modern times.

    Dear Reader, to enable you to properly evaluate these ruminations I must add two more disclosures.  Jo Ann and I recently contributed to the campaign of Ron Paul.  If the left-wing will sweep the field next year, then we would like to throw our stubborn ounces on the side of someone who walks the walk he talks.  Perhaps, as they say, if enough of us do it, it will send a message.  And also, poring through our charitable gifts, we find that we have and continue to contribute to the Center for Competitive Politics which supports the retention of our First Amendment rights under the Constitution.  Mercy.

    On the global warming front Anthony Watts (Watts Up With That) reports that recent climate change research in Greenland shows that the island was as warm or warmer during the last millennium than it is now.  The results were presented by the University of Cincinnati at the recent American Geophysical Union’s session Greenland Climate Change Past and Present.  But I wouldn’t spend much effort looking for reports on these findings in the balanced mainstream media.  When encountering such information, we must always remember that “the debate is over.”

    On the sub-prime lending front.  The government has again confirmed its uncontested opinion of us.  So many of us are now in the double-dummy category that we need to ratchet back on a few more freedoms for our own good.  Treasury Secretary Paulson is announcing his plan to “freeze the teaser” making it illegal for lenders to up the interest rate as stipulated in the ARM contract signed by the borrower.  This, of course, will hit hardest the private individuals – retireds, 401K contributors, long-term investors, etc – hardest who bought ‘conservative’ money market funds.  Congress, not to be outdone, has passed legislation to also put the additional burden of defaults on the lender.  If, after lying through your teeth on your loan application, you discover that you can’t repay the loan, you will now be able to walk away or even sue the lender.  The law will make the lender liable for not being able to correctly vet the borrower and identify the potential deadbeats.  That has always been the case, but in a more primitive age the borrower stayed on the hook for the loan; not any more.  If you can’t pay, it was by definition a “predatory loan” and you will have recourse.  That you are reading these words dear Reader makes it likely that you can immediately see how these new government bandaids will wind up helping us all, especially the poorest and most ignorant.

    In the 18dec07 Union there was a long and laborious article by Reinette Senum on economic revitalization.  To achieve this she prescribes that “we must begin doing business with a different philosophy, set of rules, standards and goals.”  Different indeed.  The socialist palliatives and nostroms she rediscovers are well worn with the tread of her philosophical forebears whom history has trouble burying because history is no longer called to serve.  Ignoring these lessons, her implicit message is the echo of ‘let’s try it again, this time it will be different’.  On the other hand, she and her business partner Kelly Casterson also inaugurate a periodical column that promises to give practical advice on saving energy to home and business owners.  We look forward to that.

    ‘A Return to Ritual’ in the 24dec07 US News & World Report describes a phenomenon sweeping the Judeo-Christian religions calling for reinstatement of more traditional liturgies that have been abandoned in recent decades.  It seems that worshipping closer to the manner of our ancestors does contribute to the depth and continuity of an comforting belief system.  The replacement of church and temple altars with rock band stages may be starting to get some pushback.  Some of us are even old enough to remember that going to church meant putting on your ‘Sunday go meetin’ clothes’ instead of ragged levis, sweatshirts, and go-aheads just so you would look cool.  Visible and frequented symbols remain powerful reminders of our faith, which then begs the question – what does a grim array of microphones, wires, speakers, and an electronic drumset remind you to believe in?

    Finally, for over forty years I’ve kept a copy of Gracian’s Manual (Fischer translation) handy on/near my desk.  Through its pages and over the centuries the good Father Baltasar counsels all of us who only need open his little tome from time to time.  In my case I am more often scraped and bruised when attempting to fit myself through his templates of good conduct and character.  Here we read from Gracian #146 –

    Look beneath.  For ordinarily things are far other than they seem; and the dullness which does not seek to pass beyond the rind, is due to be increasingly disillusioned if it gets deeper into the interior.  The false is forever the lead in everything, continually dragging along the fools: the truth brings up the rear, is late, and limps along upon the arm of time, wherefore the man of insight will save for it at least the half of that faculty, which our great mother has wisely given us twice.  Deceit is superficial, wherefore the superficial are taken in at once.  The man of substance lives safely within himself, to be better treasured of his colleagues, and of those who know.  

     

  • George Rebane

    [This is adapted from a 3jun07 posting to RR when it resided on The Union website.]

    You earn more money the more education you have.  This astounding conclusion was recently reported in the May/June 2007 issue of The American by two leading lights in economics – Nobel laureate Gary Becker and Clark Prize winner Kevin Murphy.  It is most astounding to the many Americans and our government who behave as if high earners are somehow stealing money from the low earners and must therefore be punished.  This punishment comes in the form of being constantly lambasted in the populist media and having more of their earnings confiscated by the state.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    [This piece is adapted from a post that first appeared as an Other Voices article on The Union’s website on 10 June 2007.  The issue discussed here is becoming more important as the presidential candidates seek to differentiate themselves regarding immigration while continuing to confuse and pander to the voters using terms that are designed to please the many while informing the few.]

    Disagreement and discontent on the issue of ‘illegal immigration’ reigns in the land.  A cause of this confusion is that we use words that carry changed meanings and messages depending on our education and ideology.  The objective is to elicit the support on the subject with soundbites and obfuscation that hide the important factors about the issue we don’t want the other side to dwell on.  In order to clearly think about and discuss the matter, we need to attach unambiguous labels to a number of distinct cases that involve people from one country going to and abiding in another country.

    What is the broad, non-pejorative umbrella term used to describe a foreigner in our country who is not a citizen?  The historically accurate term still in the dictionary is alien.  Aliens come in the many flavors which we discuss below – tourist, transiting-visitor, immigrant, legal resident, migrant worker, and so on.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    • Promoting Nevada County Jobs
    • Role of Religion in Campaigns

    Jeff Pelline wrote a good editorial in today’s Union that covered a lot of the waterfront in promoting job growth in the county.  Here are some added thoughts.  RR readers know my school of economics teaches that technologists have been the prime wealth creators for many decades and from here on out will have even more of that burden put on their shoulders.  But all wealth is not created equally even in technology.  For example, ‘green companies’ that depend on the government’s distortion of the markets (read subsidies) to survive will be a weak and marginally sustainable area of growth.  Such green technology firms in Nevada County are basically betting that the folks in Ohio and elsewhere will want to pay for people to work and live in Nevada County.  And this only lasts for a while until the plug is pulled.  As an entrepreneur, I would be leery of sticking my government subsidized company up here instead of in a more accessible (metropolitan area) closer to bigger labor, transportation, and other markets.  And teaching local people job skills is absolutely wonderful as long as they then have the ability to work in the county.  For example, teaching welding and other machine shop skills makes a lot of sense if we allow the establishment of new business that do welding and generate all the other collateral effects like traffic, pollution, noise, … ; otherwise we train people locally to then move, or worse, commute elsewhere to work.

    Peggy Noonan (‘The Pulpit and the Potemkin Village’) in today’s WSJ laments that religion again plays a big part in the upcoming presidential campaign.  In this she and other columnists concentrate on the (pejorative) discriminatory aspects of supporting a candidate based on religion. What these commentators seem to miss is the most fundamental role that a declared religion plays in favor of a candidate.  And that is that a credible religious label efficiently encodes (that’s tech talk) a whole list of values and behaviors of the candidate without having to take time/money to repeatedly spell them out for every new audience. In short, if the, say, man believably asserts he’s a practicing Baptist, then a large fraction of the people immediately attribute a whole bunch of good attributes to him that they would like to see in a principled politician and/or office holder.  Of course, the candidate has to trade off the effect on certain people who may not think that having a bible thumper in office is such a hot idea.  In any event, claimed religions, club affiliations, military experience, etc serve to efficiently summarize a lot information about the character of the candidate and make us feel we can successfully predict how he really would act in office.  Until there is drafted and publicized a widely accepted and vanilla ‘Universal Code of Political Ethics’ that is free of ties to known belief systems and affiliations, we should understand that hearing a politician play the religion, ethnic, or race card is also a fast way of saying ‘I am this and not that’ relying on the appropriate stereotypes embedded in our culture.  (BTW, accurate stereotyping is not the politically incorrect thing that certain folks would like to have us think; but we’ll cover that another time.)  For us voters such self-ascribed labels are good information and should be looked at in their entirety, and not simply serve as a slogan-based stimulus to either summarily accept or reject the candidate.

  • George Rebane

    I received the following email from a friend and member of our little investment group.  He is the most astute and insightful investor I personally know and his remarks are forwarded, with permission, for the consideration of those readers interested in what’s going on in the today’s security markets.

    Today is a fine example of inefficient markets.  Short term investors are concerned with the bounce in consumerism and the increase in inflation concerns (less likelyhood of further rate decreases)  Hence, commodity prices are down.

    Long term (which really counts)

       1.  Who really believes that the worst of the credit crunches are over?  The only way the govt can TRY to avert a housing disaster and a severe stock market decline is to continue (mid-term) with interest rate reductions.  This reads as increases in the money pumped out by Washington.

       2.  The bail-outs for failing mortgages and falling real estate prices will ultimately resemble the corrupt effort the last time this happened.  A government market of last resort supporting and auctioning real estate.  This will add funds to the fire.

       3.  The countries across the seas will not stand by and accept a weakening dollar and damages to their export positions.  They will also pump out more and more currency.

       4.  Investors in all countries will ultimately lose faith in currencies and turn more and more to assets that can retain purchasing power.  This will ultimately support gold, silver, timber, energy and (yes) the stock markets.

       5.  Lots of volatility ahead and many opportunities to fall for the short term head fakes.

  • George Rebane

    This year I took the advice of several friends and started blogging, first through our local paper’s website and then striking out on my own.  In recent years bloggers have become prominent on the international landscape as a source of every kind of information that can be transmitted over the World Wide Web, and in doing so they have become a kind of complementary burden to the established press – our vaunted Fourth Estate.  I don’t believe that any blogger really wanted to get into the news business.  But responding to their readers, some of them wound up becoming another news source.

    Contrary to the loud protestations from the established media, the continuing decline of the journalistic profession really helped put bloggers on the map.  As an example of such decline, one need only go to the Society of Professional Journalists and compare their code of ethics against what is daily printed and broadcast.  Within this experience, it was a slam dunk for bloggers to become a growing and threatening alternative for every kind of content that was formerly the reserve of the professional press.

    My personal theory of why mainstream journalism has suffered a decline hangs on two factors – the quality of the talent and the number of outlets.  In the liberal arts, especially the humanities, most people educated in the post-Great Society era (1965 onwards) have been dealt a meager hand in the game of life.  The increase in the number of outlets (primarily TV and Internet) has nevertheless provided employment for more marginal talking heads or journalists, if you will.  Today’s average reporter appears to be woefully ill-informed about history, current events relating to his assignment, and, of course, English grammar.  How many times have you heard today’s educated say ‘That surprised her and I.’, ‘There is a lot more features.’, or something similar.  But then all that doesn’t matter much because today’s audience is also less demanding.  And so it goes in the information age.

    Reducing all this down to our little “burg” – as a recent commenter so aptly cited our mountain county hideaway – a few Nevada County bloggers and I have been encouraged by the local editor to rise beyond ourselves.  Specifically, he understands us all to be aspiring journalists seeking to duplicate the long-sought professionalism of our newspaper, The Union, and assessing us to fall woefully short in the effort.  Tirelessly this exemplar, nay, self-declared paragon of “thick-skinned” journalism patrols our blogs and does his best to point out our errors and short-comings.  These range from the egregious to the unforgivable – lexicographic behavior literally beyond the journalistic pale especially to the extent that it shades The Union – and all this in the name of holding us “accountable”.  Evidence of his industry in pursuing this grail is sprinkled throughout our blogs.  And though I hesitate to burden the reader with the task of seeing for himself; such undertaking would serve, if only anecdotally, to validate some of the points made above, especially relating to the ‘meager hand’. 

    So dear Reader, I am here to provide relief to those disappointed in what they perceive as my attempts at journalism and hereby declare unconditionally – I am not a journalist.

    (more…)

No comments on Populism??