Rebane's Ruminations
November 2026
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  • George Rebane

    Stampede News report – Jdimytai Damour, 34, was crushed as he and other employees attempted to unlock the doors of a Long Island, New York, store at 5 a.m. Friday, police said.  “This incident was avoidable,” said Bruce Both, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union Local 1500, the state of New York’s largest grocery worker’s union. “Where were the safety barriers? Where was security? How did store management not see dangerous numbers of customers barreling down on the store in such an unsafe manner?  This is not just tragic; it rises to a level of blatant irresponsibility by Wal-Mart,” he said.

    Henceforth retailers will be required to erect livestock fences and issue cattle prods for customer control.  Remember the days when your mom and teachers taught you not to crowd or take cuts?

  • George Rebane

    ConfusingGraph Every day the economists and analysts are surprised when their quarterly predictions on various economic indicators are off by miles.  Now this same crowd has started drinking the climate change modelers’ kool-aid, and are making predictions about how the 2030 GDP will be affected by various carbon cap-and-trade policies.  No kidding; these yokels actually claim to understand our complex economy so well that they can tell you the precise impact that such admittedly byzantine policies will have.  The left-wing New Republic has an article in which the cost of cap-and-trade is soberly reported as just “shaving off three hundredth of a percentage point off the country’s annual GDP growth.” Dear Reader this means that these turkeys actually believe their models can make straight-faced statements about our country’s economic growth rate down to 3 parts in 10,000.  What unadulterated bovine scat is fed to the innumerate sheep as part and parcel of the climate change hysteria!!  And not only do we lap it up, but we lick the plate clean.

    Cracks in our façade are becoming obvious to outsiders.  Now a leading Russian academic who studies the United States has gone on record.

    Igor Panarin, a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian foreign affairs ministry, said the economic turmoil in the US had confirmed his long-held belief that the country was heading for extinction in its present form. (more here)

    Some of us longtime students of the American scene have been seeing the fissures grow for some years.  Apparently they’re now visible enough to be also seen from afar.  The good professor blames the current economic woes to be the shake-up that promises things coming apart.  I’m not sure that a financial crisis is really needed to make people look for another political arrangement on this continent, for that has been going on for some time already.  We seem to be the only country in the world which, as a body politic, does not recognize the destructive effects unassimilated diversity.  Even the EU is beginning to realize, perhaps too late, that it has now diversified itself into what promises to be a catastrophic fall of the greatest macro-culture the world has seen.  My own views on the next twenty years were summarized last year and can be seen here.

    OK, enough with the serious stuff.  To lighten up, please make yourself comfortable, turn up the volume, and listen to ‘The Mom Song’ – absolutely hysterical, but you gotta pay attention.

     

  • George Rebane

    Jo Ann and I wish all of our readers a day of joyful reflection on all the received blessings of family, friends, and this wondrous land – Happy Thanksgiving.

    Thanksgiving  

  • George Rebane

    Ponzi Here all along I thought that California was going to be the first state to cancel its payment to its government employees pension fund CalPERS.  And now that uppity model of eastern fiscal responsibility, New Jersey, beat us to it.  NJ has lost so much in the collapsing markets this year that its unfunded liability (UL) is currently about $60B.  Not to worry, with its portfolio slated to earn 8.25% annually, New Jersey will be in there again in 2012 making its regular payments.  Yeah, right.

    But the most interesting part of the report (here) is what it quietly highlights.  The state government considered raising property taxes as an alternative.  Every taxpayer should know that government unfunded liabilities are exactly that, financial liabilities that the government has to ultimately pay with monies of last resort which come out of our pockets as additional taxes.

    Yesterday I had lunch with one of our elected leaders and we discussed the way that governments pile up financial obligations that follow-on governments are saddled with.  An alternative, of course, would be for a jurisdiction to adopt a ‘pay as you go’ policy for compensating staff.  Under such a policy the government agrees to pay out ALL of its known financial obligations to an employee during the employee’s term of employment.  When the employee leaves –quits, retires, … – then that employee’s account is paid up.  Both of us thought it would be a breath of fresh air if, say, a city council passed a resolution stating that it would henceforth proceed on a ‘pay as you go basis’ with current and new employees; or instead resolve that they would adopt a ponzi policy so as to pile on debt obligations to their successors.  Either way, just make the policy explicit so that it can be voted on and then strapped to the wall of the council chambers.

    Today almost every government (federal through local) has an unstated ponzi policy in place – we’ll take our takings now and let someone else pay for it tomorrow.  Mike McDaniel is continuing to cover the details on the local UL scene (here) and Russ Steele brings UL into perspective with the self-inflicted financial impact of the climate change fiasco (here).

  • George Rebane

    Confused‘Tis the season of planning on how to achieve goals, and setting goals that requires planning.  The politicians can be expected to confuse the two simply because precision in thought and word is not a job requirement.  But you would expect our journalists to be able to sort out the difference and report accordingly.  Well, it turns out that they also don’t know a plan from a goal if sampling recent media reports gives any measure.  I’m sad to see that even at the vaunted WSJ, our language has no staunch friends.

    From the dictionary –

    Goal (n) – the result or achievement toward which effort is directed; aim; end. (technically, an end state)

    Plan (n) – a scheme or method of acting, doing, proceeding, making, etc. developed in advance. (technically, an algorithm to achieve an end state)

    In short, we set a goal and make a plan to achieve it – the first is a desired endpoint and the second is one of several specific ways of getting there.  These are very important distinctions especially when we listen to and try to make sense out of political hot air.

    When in response to the current financial crisis a politician says he “plans to create three million new jobs”, he is really stating a goal or objective.  He makes no claim that the plan already exists to create those jobs.  Why is understanding this distinction important to the rest of us?  Well, because we may all nod approvingly about having three million new jobs in the economy, but whether we know it or not, our nods come conditionally. 

    A conservative might only accept that goal if the plan for achieving it would include sustainable economic growth through tax cuts.  On the other hand, a liberal might accept the goal only if the jobs were government designated and funded through additional taxes on the rich.  The goal and its attendant plans are different.  Setting broadly acceptable goals is easy and relatively cheap; designing feasible and broadly accepted plans for their achievement is hard and expensive.  And having a plan and executing it are different still, but that’s another story.  Journalists should know the differences and make those clear in their interviews and reports.    

  • George Rebane

    To add more local information to the developing story of Nevada County’s unfunded liabilities, please see ‘Who will bail out our local employee pension plans?’ by Mike McDaniel.  This piece emphasizes the points made in ‘Gold, Groceries, and Guns’ and underlines that the financial rot runs right down through the states to the counties and towns.  As a free-market capitalist I am red-faced that the suits in the private sector thought they also could follow the government model and borrow themselves to prosperity.

    On the same theme, a local correspondent points out that KNCO is reporting that gun sales are up over 25% in the past few months (here).  He adds, “As a form of protest against the new socialist order I did my part by purchasing ammo on election day.”

    Let’s end this on a more humorous item from the ‘We’re from the government and we’re here to help’ file.  It seems that the churches of New York City have gone above and beyond acceptable levels of compassion by opening up their facilities to the homeless on particularly cold nights.  You see, the city has its own homeless housing program and will brook neither competition nor interference from such God-fearing folks (report here).  It has ordered the houses of worship not to shelter any freezing homeless unless they also comply with certain regulations like having to operate the facility at least five nights a week – it’s the “all or nothing” rule.  Again, I wish I were making this up.

  • George Rebane

    FedDebt1

    The usual plots of federal debt in dollars showing a percipitous climb during recent years is meaningless.  What we care about is the debt as a percentage of the country’s earning power as represented by its GDP.  The Peter G. Peterson Foundation has compiled that information from government data into the above graph which is part of a compelling report ‘The State of the Union’s Finances’.  The graph shows that we now owe about 75% of current GDP, a fraction we exceeded only during the very expensive years of conducting WW2.

    But the scary part is yet to come.  RR readers know that the total unfunded liabilities of the nation in the coming years is somewhere north of $60,000,000,000,000 ($60Trillion).  For reference, keep in mind that our current GDP is about $14T, and the total annual federal take (excluding state and local taxes and other fees) is a little north of 20% of GDP which is about to go up under Obamanomics.  Now look at the right end of the plot as we go into future years.

    This plot graphically shows why the dollar must be destroyed.  There is no conceivable way that the US government can meet its obligations by paying them off with dollars that have their current buying power.  Soon we will not be able to even pay the interest on the dollars we have borrowed.  As Christopher Wood writes in ‘The Fed Is Out of Ammunition’ (24nov08 WSJ),

    In this respect the present crisis in the West will ultimately end up discrediting mechanical monetarism — and with it the fiat paper-money system in general — as the U.S. paper-dollar standard, in place since Richard Nixon broke the link with gold in 1971, finally disintegrates.

    The catalyst will be foreign creditors fleeing the dollar for gold. That will in turn lead to global recognition of the need for a vastly more disciplined global financial system and one where gold, the “barbarous relic” scorned by most modern central bankers, may well play a part.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    OffPlumb Jeff Pelline, the editor of our beloved Onion and self-anointed paragon of our community’s virtues, has recently riddled the comments of several local blogs with references to the celebrated Four Way Test of Rotary International.  A careful perusal of these entries reveals that Jeff believes himself to be an exemplar of the test, passing it with flying colors.  However, the objects of his directed remediations are seen to fall not only short of the specified ideals, but to actually cross the boundary of hypocrisy.  Serious allegations indeed.

    To the reader not acquainted with the Four Way Test, it is revealed below.  Satisfying its tenets is a goal of all interactions and relationships entered into by Rotarians.

    Of the things we think, say or do
    1. Is it the TRUTH?
    2. Is it FAIR to all concerned?
    3. Will it build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS?
    4. Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?

    We Rotarians remind ourselves of this test by repeating it during the formal part of our meetings.  And try as we each may in our daily dealings, each of us admittedly falls short in their fulfillment.  We all know it and depend on the more encompassing grace of God to pardon these shortcomings within the greater purview of the mandates specified for us in the Good Book.

    Recently, upon reflection, I discovered that the famous Nobelist Kenneth Arrow has absolved us from the second and fourth tenets of the Four Way Test.  He was awarded the coveted prize for showing that it was indeed impossible to always supply satisfactory benefices when more than two parties are engaged in such egalitarian pursuits.  A wider acquaintance of this result would profitably inform larger populations such as our own electorate.  However, our politicians, abetted by the state’s teaching monopoly and the, perhaps unwitting, cooperation of the Fourth Estate, would have none of it.  And therefore, to this day, we are taught the error that in the public square it is possible to come up with policies (laws, regulations, ordnances, …) which can deliver justice, fairness, and the essential benefits to all in equal measure.  But I digress.

    In light of the above, Mr. Pelline presents himself, firmly embedded in the Onion, as the well-meaning county conscience, which upon closer inspection, shows him still about half a bubble off plumb.

  • George Rebane

    Steve Monaghan is a sober man and a good county department manager, but his recent piece in The Union left my head spinning. Therein Steve states –

    Nevada County now utilizes 11 hybrid vehicles to conduct business. It purchased its first all-electric, zero-emissions truck this month. This truck was 65 percent funded through a grant from the Northern Sierra Air Quality Management District. It will be able to reach 13 county facilities and has a 40-mile range per single electric charge.

    An electric truck driven 5,000 miles per year at an estimated cost of $100 for electricity, realizing a $1,600 savings per year as compared to a gas-powered vehicle.

    ElectricTruck Let’s see now, $100 of electricity divided by 5,000 miles means that it will cost two cents a mile to drive that truck.  Wow! where can I get me one of them trucks?

    And if that saves $1,600 over a gas powered truck, then driving the 5,000 miles now costs $1,700 or 34 cents a mile.  At $2/gallon (today’s price), this means that the county’s truck gets about six miles per gallon.  Over the past year at a more normal $3/gallon, the truck would get about nine miles a gallon.  Well OK, it’s a mite of a gas guzzler, but we’re not talking about a Prius here.

    But it seems more than remarkable that the conversion from gasoline to electricity will yield a seventeen fold (94%) savings.  This means that the county is getting one hell of a deal from PG&E on electricity, or someone at the Rood Center has been taking their smoking breaks in the Evidence Room at the Wayne Brown Correctional Facility.

    No matter, let’s get some more of those trucks that are 65% funded by the good people of Ohio, and plug them into those great PG&E subsidized power outlets.

  • George Rebane

    Clown Today the professional journalist is in a sorry state of his own making.  Polls show that the public holds the journalist in very low esteem indeed, somewhere down there with lawyers and politicians.  Perhaps it’s time to start a new department that highlights one or two of the abundance of follies they foist on us daily in the name of being society’s self-appointed ferrets and trumpets of truth and light.

    Tonight on NBC’s evening news a typical stupid joke was pulled on the viewers when the anchor Lester Holt stated with a straight face that Obama had come up with a new plan to salve the economy.  This was announced at the beginning of the broadcast as a bullet point to get you to stay and watch, and again as the intro to the segment about “Obama’s plan”, how he was going to “put millions back to work”.  The apparent intention of this MSM outlet was to continue the hype about our new president-elect and that he’s got things well in hand even before he puts that hand on the Good Book.  Well, it turned out to be a non-item.  Obama has no plan whatsoever about how to put millions back to work.  But we were told instead that he wants to put millions back to work, and that he’s instructed his economic team to try and figure out a way to put millions back to work. 

    And that is how it was left when the segment ended.  Either these clowns are just butt stupid and don’t know the difference between a plan and the fervent desire to have one, or they were continuing to practice puffery and intending to fool the folks.  In this case I gave them the benefit of the doubt, and assumed that the journalists (news editor, anchor, and segment lead) were all just comically ignorant.  But I bet 99% of the viewers now believe that Obama is a clever guy who has already figured out how to put millions back to work.  In the end, this is unfair to the president-elect who already has a lot of balls in the air, and the premature raising of expectations will help no one outside the beltway.

    (The astute reader knows that there are about 150 million in the American workforce which today is about 6.5% unemployed.  A developed country counts ‘full employment’ effectively occurring when the “natural unemployment rate” drops below about 4.5%.  That means that Obama is seeking to return around three million workers to jobs by taking money from the Peters to pay the Pauls.  As economists have told us for decades, this means that the Peters cannot spend that money to create the really needed jobs, and we must all trust that this time around the government knows how better to deploy the workforce than does private industry.  In any case, as FDR demonstrated seventy years ago, there will be no net jobs created through any such policy.)

    NRA [23nov08 update]

      ABC News announced tonight that President-elect Obama will seek to “restore” 2.5 million jobs.  While that’s close enough to my predicted 3 million jobs, I will stick with the higher number because things will get worse before they get better and Obama will up his target.  What we should keep in mind during all this is that these “restored” jobs will be advertized falsely as net new jobs.  Instead, whatever number actually created will be jobs displaced from the private sector by the government using both fiat money and fiat tributes to make people do work they deem to be most important.  The previous program that did this under FDR was called the National Recovery Administration which extended the Great Depression so that a world war was required to set things right – a high price to pay for meddling in the markets.  Stand by for another spate of Fireside Chats.

    [24nov08 update] More recent research (here) has been announced on how FDR’s policies extended the Great Depression and how Obamanomics may be preparing to take around that barn again.

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