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  • Which way now California?

    George Rebane

    [This is the submitted version of my column that appears today 12 June 2010 in the printed and online (here) editions of The Union.]

    Don’t you love it when everybody wins?  You know, when both sides claim victory or look at the same data, and come to exactly the opposite conclusions, only one of which could ever be true.  My response has usually been, ‘well good for the both of you’, and let a later reality sort it all out.  So after years in a social and economic tailspin, California once more finds its future prognosticated by clear-eyed politicians and pundits, equally persuaded, as they point to every direction on the compass.

    Art Laffer of Laffer Curve fame reminds us that taxes on everything from income, dividends, capital gains, toe nail polish, you name it, all are going up big time on 1 January 2011.  And they will keep going up.  So most American companies will be taking every cent of profits they can this year.  This will make the economy’s numbers look good in 2010, even though taxes and debt promise that future real growth will remain anemic.  With the election coming up in November, it’s almost as if someone planned it that way.

    Laffer says we will all pay for it next year as the inevitable lower earnings get projected and reported.  As a result, the markets will tank and the country sinks back into a double-dip recession.

    Cari Tuna in the Wall Street Journal gets specific about California, and points out that with 12.6% unemployment (US 9.9%) we are a big drag on the national recovery.  Our $19B budget shortfall for 2011 is the wrong kind of light at the end of the Golden State’s DIY tunnel project.  Meanwhile, California’s right continues to see hope with targeted tax cuts, especially for new businesses.  But they have only two chances of turning Sacramento – slim and none.

    Those on the left place their bets on the good folks in Ohio to continue funding government ‘investments’ in California to ‘develop’ a passel of new green jobs and subsidized green industries.  And then when these economic mavens also end ‘tax breaks’ for companies sending jobs elsewhere, even more money will flow into our state’s coffers.  We know this will work because those greedy capitalists will have no alternative but to stay here, pay more taxes, and hire California workers at proper wage levels.  There is no end to these kinds of winning strategies, one just has to look.

    And to put a real polish on that future, UCLA economist Jerry Nickelsburg tells us that California has already gone through its big “structural adjustment” in construction and manufacturing, and therefore is set to soar in 2011.  Things are looking up!

    But here come those pesky conservatives again with their charts and graphs showing how our economy has rocketed when tax cuts kicked in, and tanked with higher taxes.  The left points out that these guys have it all wrong, because they’ve got their charts turned upside down.  It’s always been tax hikes that have kicked the economy into high gear, and they’re determined to prove it again next year.  Just tell them how high you want that old GDP to climb, and they’ll raise taxes accordingly.  How many million more jobs do we need?  Let them know, and with more taxes and debt, they’ll make it so.  Either way we can’t lose, right?

    If all that high level economics leaves our heads spinning, then we can listen to the financial advisers who tell us to convert our regular retirement accounts into Roth-IRAs before next January.  They say that is a “no brainer”.  Then again …

    In the meantime more than a few folks hereabouts with a keen eye toward the future are buying short lengths of large diameter PVC pipe with end caps.

    George Rebane is a retired systems scientist and entrepreneur in Nevada County who regularly expands these and other themes on KVMR and Rebane’s Ruminations (www.georgerebane.com).

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  • We Can Dream, Can’t We?

    George Rebane

    InCongress Long ago Congress became the largest, best armed, corrupt, and most powerful crime syndicate in the nation.  For years we voters have been the compliant lackeys of the self-aggrandized ‘Capitol Honorables’, sending one morally myopic after another to Washington on the promise that they will somehow be clever enough to return us more than the tribute they first harvest from us.  We excuse our folly with the firm belief that only experienced mobsters know how to play in the Washington syndicate, and anyone else we send there would be returned to us in a body bag at the end of his/her term.

    Our country was not founded on the premise of perennially supporting a professional political class.  And more and more of us now dream of a return to principled governance that would again unleash the blessings of liberty for which so many have sacrificed.

    Today a growing number of Americans believe that this type of reform is fundamental to turning from our present disastrous course.  What will you do if you share this dream?

    A long time friend and RR reader sent this expression of hope that appears below with minor edits.

    (more…)

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  • The Generosity of Americans Under Assault

    George Rebane

    [This commentary was broadcast today 11May 2010 by KVMR FM85.9 as the latest of my regular bi-weekly contributions.]

    In times thick and thin we Americans are world champion philanthropists – by any measure our voluntary contributions to charities and worthy causes have been unbeatable.  But our federal and state governments are working hard to change that.

    When hurricane Katrina came ashore in New Orleans recently, the media reported the outpouring from Americans to the tune of $6 billion.  We all instinctively reached for our wallets and checkbooks because those people needed help, and they would do the same for us.  But we hear of such generosity only during times of disaster and crisis.

    What few people realize is that Americans voluntarily give that much out of their own pockets every week after week all year long, to the tune of over $300 billion annually.  And with millions of eyes, ears, and brains, we determine where that money should go to help the people and institutions we favor.

    Most of the givers turn out to be religious people according to the Philanthropy Roundtable.  But people of faith don’t limit their contributions just to their own churches, synagogues, and temples.  Giving freely, Americans of faith and secular persuasions support untold causes to benefit our nation and people in need across the globe.

    $300 billion a year is a lot of money, and it has been attracting the attention of spendthrift bloated governments at all levels.  Politicians, bureaucrats, and activists of a certain ideological bent have turned their gimlet eye on all that freely flowing cash not in their control.  To some of those people, that much giving clearly indicates that taxes are not yet nearly high enough.  Vote buying politicians are asking ‘what are those people doing with our money in their pockets?’  To others, who back causes to which no one would contribute voluntarily, all that money would be much more accessible if it were available to them through grants given by a like-minded government.

    Today private giving and private charitable institutions are under fire from three sides.  The first is a desire at all levels of government to limit the flow of contributions by proposing added regulations, accreditation boards, and commissions to establish new levels of bureaucracy and oversight to charitable giving.  Many of these are to assure that charities implement and report on gender and racial quotas being met in their institutions and their recipients.

    The second threat is the new notion that charitable gifts become public monies, and therefore should fall under political control of the state.  Finally, the government wants to redefine what kind of giving is charitable – they want to pick the winners and losers.  Put together, it all means that  an individual’s freedom to give should come under new and tougher government constraints.

    I’m George Rebane, and I expand these and other themes in my Union column, and on georgerebane.com.  The opinions here are mine and not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening.

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  • A Better Way to ‘Bomb the Oil Leak’

    George Rebane

    With all due respect, I strongly disagree with the Big Bomb approach to plug BP’s oil gusher as suggested by Franz Gayl, civilian scientist for the Marine Corps (here).  Gayl recommends “dropping” a version of the Air Force's giant 21,600 lbs bomb on the wellhead.  Wrong solution – exploding it at the wellhead would create a huge hemispherical fragment zone directly above the drill pipe going to the oil reservoir several thousand feet below the sea bottom.  In all likelihood this will not seal the high pressure oil channel, but will now give the pressurized oil a hundred different places over a large area to come up through the fractured sea bottom.   Result – the leaking oil problem is amplified by a hundredfold.

    A couple of weeks ago as I was noodling on how to seal the well with explosives (I bet every other engineer in the country was also thinking of solutions, especially if they’re former cannon cockers).  My solution is to use the two boreholes now being drilled next to the drill pipe and casing feeding the gusher.  These are intended to relieve the pressure by siphoning off the oil into two new, controlled and functional wellheads.  To do this they must intercept the current well casing, a very precise task indeed.

    Instead of attempting this intercept and pressure relief approach, I would just bring the two new bores to within a computed distance of the active borehole.  Then pack the bottom so many feet of the new bores with fused explosives and detonate them either concurrently or sequentially.  At the proper distance, such an explosion would send a tremendous compression wave of the known underground strata against the oil-filled casing, and essentially seal it by squeezing it shut.  The technique is known as ‘explosive forming’ and is a manufacturing technique used to form thick metals.  Most certainly this should be done if the new bores fail to achieve their exact intercepts.

    The result would be a tightly squeezed, but not broken/penetrated, casing and drill pipe which would seal the gusher and reduce the wellhead flow to a trickle that could easily be shut off by the standard wellhead seals.  Well anyway, you get the idea.

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  • Obama Wants BP’s Scalp (and more)

    George Rebane

    Yes, I’ll come out and say it, President Obama wants to destroy British Petroleum PLC.   The reasons for this drastic objective are purely political; political in the sense of saving his political hide from the rabid left who have already called him on a number of ‘broken promises’.  He needs to look decisive and draconian against one of the biggest capitalist firms in the world, and a carbon coughing oil company (gasp!) at that.  What a coup it would be in the eyes of his Marxist minions if he could be seen standing over the corpse of this world class polluter with its dripping entrails in his mighty hand.  Hand me the earplugs Martha, the cheering is already getting too loud.

    NewUnionLabel 

    The problem is that killing BP would look good only to the ignorant and the radicals, but would be a poor choice for the Gulf’s economy and cleaning up the environment.  While all the happy celebrations of BP’s demise are still going on, the assets of the company are going to be encumbered by any number of vultures descending immediately to put everything in litigation.  When BP’s money stops, we taxpayers will have to make up the difference and the new monies spent will be under the direct management of the feds – another disaster a la Katrina.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if some socialist worthy in the administration comes up with the idea of establishing a permanent ‘Emergency Management Corps’ that is staffed with unemployables who would make up another legion in Obama’s promised Civilian Defense Corps – remember the one that will be “equally funded and armed” as our military.  These rapid response brown shirt revolutionaries could then handle whatever ‘internal emergency’ the administration identifies.  Such new government workers would, of course, continue to swell the ranks of the SEIU whose leadership already has its sights on a new USA – that is Unified Socialist America.

    Reading diatribes like this really makes most hardworking people shake their heads, and repeat our inbred mantra ‘Never in America’.  But then a few people will actually take the time to google up some of the videos of Andy Stern and his administration pals to hear all this in their own words.  Look for the new ‘union label’ appearing on more and more things in our everyday lives.  We have to understand that it will not always say SEIU or La Raza or MALDEF, but will simply appear as another little progressive step, like the warning label pictured nearby on newly x-rated editions of the Constitution.

    And finally, again I want to make clear that Obama and his ilk are a problem which we ourselves have created.  Nevertheless, they are the existential “fundamental transformation” that they promised, and now that we have seen the true workings of this transformation, it is up to us to return to American exceptionalism.  Dennis Prager said it all at the University of Denver, please look this video.

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  • Same ol’ same ol’

    George Rebane

    As you can see, we in Nevada County are still doing our part to hold down the deficit.  What about you guys where you live?

    NCstartpage100611
    NCARRA100611

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  • Patty Meckler votes in Nevada County

    George Rebane

    [I had breakfast with Mark and Patty Meckler yesterday.  Mark is one of the two national co-ordinators of the Tea Party Patriots.  The Rebanes are TPP members and supporters.  In our broader conversation Mark and Patty brought up Patty's experience at her polling place Tuesday.  The story was both sad and bizarre, but totally believable on the downward slide that we Americans find ourselves – it was of a piece about which we all read and experience every day.  To clarify the recounting of Patty's episode, Mark sent me this email about an hour ago.  It is reproduced below in its entirety. gjr]

    The gross incompetence of the Elections Office in Nevada County is very disturbing.  In addition to failing to appropriately test its voting machines, it seems that poll workers were trained to systematically violate voters First Amendment rights.

    At approximately 6 p.m. on voting day, my wife Patty entered her polling place at the fire station in Chicago Park.  She was advised by a poll worker that she was not allowed to vote because she was wearing a Tea Party Patriots t-shirt.  She strenuously argued that the law didn't prohibit this, and that the Tea Party Patriots were non-partisan, and didn't endorse candidates.  But they would not give in and she was publicly embarrassed and told the only way she'd be allowed to vote is if she went home and changed her shirt.  Luckily, another poll worker was kind enough to loan Patty her sweater in order to allow her to vote.

    To cut to the chase, this is a direct violation of her First Amendment rights.  The California Elections Law prohibits "electioneering" within 100 feet of polling places.  However, electioneering is clearly and unambiguously defined in a very limited manner only as "the visible display or audible dissemination of information that advocates for or against any candidate or measure on the ballot within 100 feet of a polling place…"   Clearly, a t-shirt that says only Tea Party Patriots does not fall within the law's prohibition.  I've copied the relevant section of the California Election Code for your ease of reference.

    (more…)

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  • Experience Counts

    George Rebane

    Earlier in the day I heard of the great Nevada County voting machine debacle – apparently they don’t register the paper ballots because all of them were printed with identical registration numbers and no one checked the ballots or the scanning system with the ballots before voting started.  Who knows, there may even be more stuff that is discovered afterward.  I wasn’t going to post on this dust-up until the dust had settled.

    Well, I’ve been getting emails from my partisan correspondents regarding this little incident since it directly involves the incumbent Clerk-Recorder Greg Diaz who is standing for election for this non-partisan office against challenger Barry Pruett.  Pruett’s campaign has focused on the dual issues of the incumbent’s overall competence and character.

    For a number of reasons, Mr Diaz has attracted a following mostly from the left, and Mr Pruett from the right.  Several strong community voices from the left castigated those on the right about making the race partisan.  Those on the right advised the left to get over it because in reality, once the tilt of the candidates becomes known, there is no non-partisan voting, no matter what it says on the ballot – never is, never was.

    Anyway, from one unverified source I understand that, due to this foul-up, there will be an attorney from the state’s elections office sent here to monitor the manual count of the ballots.  That should mollify those who might think that it was a planned goof designed to stop Pruett.  I don’t belong to that school of conspiracy and prefer to accept the simpler of the explanations.

    In any event, an example of the concern about the ‘scanner error’ is voiced by Bill Neuharth, chairman of the Nevada County Republican Party.  Haven’t yet heard any complaints from the left, I guess for them everything is hunky-dory.  Neuharth just issued this statement –
     
    "The integrity of the election process is in jeopardy here in Nevada County.  Due to an unprecedented printing error the ballots being cast in the precincts are unreadable by the E-Scan machines, and therefore the votes can't be tallied in the precincts."
     
    "Consequently, the trust of the Nevada County voters has been violated by the Nevada County Clerk Recorders office."
     
    "I am urging the California Secretary of State to send independent observers to oversee the ballot counting process this evening when the polls close. There should also be a complete and thorough investigation to determine what lapses of oversight occurred to allow the printing of faulty ballots.”

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  • Vote Buying in June 2010

    George Rebane

    Obamacare’s chief salesman is on the road again selling what the progressives heralded was to be the universally celebrated solution to the nation’s healthcare ills.  Never mind that the Europeans and Canadians are now trying to figure out how to backtrack out of such programs without blood in the gutters.  But according to the Democratic leadership, all right thinking Americans were waiting for what they had to offer.  Not.

    Obama100609 It turns out that among the many ways you can slice the national demographic that continues to oppose Obamacare, the older folks, all of whom vote, are still worried about what this new regime will do to their ongoing benefits.  In response Obama is sending out another tranche of checks (that seems to be the socialist oil for all troubled waters – print and post) to cover one more shortfall of Obamacare, the ‘doughnut hole’ or Medicare’s prescription coverage gap.  And he wants everyone to know ‘who loves ya baby’ as you head into the voting booth with the $250 check in your hot little hand.

    Nevertheless, Obama may have some method to this madness.  An older voter could well reason that since the Dems cooked up this mess, they’ll be more motivated to keep the lid on it as long as possible.  While the Repubs will pop the lid and let all the garbage hit the fan while they point out the party responsible for your pain.  So screw the country, I’m gonna die soon anyway, keep sending me the money – I got mine!

    But what is really scaring the living bejeezus out of the senior citizens is his statement du jour, “What you need to know is the guaranteed Medicare benefits you’ve earned will not change…your guaranteed benefits will not change.”  They recall that the community organizer has lied about every other aspect of this legislation, and now he’s let them know that government will soon unguarantee their earned Medicare benefits.  Scary stuff indeed.

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  • Ruminations – 7jun2010 (updated 9jun2010)

    George Rebane

    – British PM blows socialism’s cover
    – The AB32 bamboozle under full steam
    – What if tornadoes were earthquakes?
    – Obama does something right?
    – The Dixon Cruickshank Celebratory Fishfry

    The new British PM David Cameron today announced “drastic cutbacks” in Great Britain’s budget.  This is the first revelation by a leading British politician that socialism is not sustainable in that island nation, and by implication it points a finger at all the other leading European nations that are trying to figure out how to spill the beans to their own citizens.  The biggest unsustainable in the budget is, of course, their National Healthcare Service.  Cameron’s message was that if no cutbacks, then the Greek experience comes next.   Our leftwing has loudly touted the NHS for years as the nationalized healthcare model that the US and all civilized nations should adopt.  Since they’re pretty resilient to reason, for all I know they may still be touting it now that Obamacare is the widely lamented law of the land.

    [9jun2010 update] To underline PM Cameron’s announcement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel today echoed the European awakening by stating that Germany will cease ‘stimulating’ its economy since only the ideologically blinded still think that taking money from the efficient sector of the economy and going into more debt while giving it to the inefficient sector will do anything but impede recovery.  In essence Merkel took a twist on von Mises strong dictum (‘Do nothing, sooner!’) to misguided governments by saying ‘Do nothing, finally!’

    Meanwhile, the Fed’s Bernanke continued to mix a little realism into his kool-aid with the implausible claim that government remedies will neither reduce the deficits nor help the job market, but he still expects the economy to grow 3-4% this year because invstors will rush in to put more money at risk under much higher tax rates arriving on 1 January.  Beyond bizarre, but read it here. [end update]

    It never ceases to amaze me why there is always some idiot fighting to get into a dark cave full of hungry bears while having to dodge all the people who are running out of it.

    November’s AB32 Initiative bamboozle is now coming at us full steam under the guidance of California’s Attorney General Moonbeam Brown who has renamed that job saving effort as the (I kid you not) “SUSPENDS AIR POLLUTION CONTROL LAWS REQUIRING MAJOR POLLUTERS TO REPORT  AND REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THAT CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING UNTIL UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS BELOW SPECIFIED LEVEL FOR A FULL YEAR” on your ballot in hopes that the attention deficit voters will give up trying to read/understand its title and just vote no.  Russ Steele of NC Media Watch who writes a regular column in the CABPRO Report has the full story here.

    Did Obama finally do something right?  The WSJ reports (here) that the President “wants NASA to outsource cargo and astronaut transportation to the international space station through at least the next decade.”  After cutting back manned space exploration monies for the space agency, Obama seems to be pushing for private industry to step into the breach.  Now if he only understood the relationship between entrepreneurial risk and reward, he might reflect that in his new tax policy.  Maybe then Space Exploration Technologies Corp, who successfully launched their Falcon 9 rocket with a crew capsule payload into low earth orbit, would have an easier time getting still needed VC and debt financing.  Nah!

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