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  • The ‘Rebane Ratio’ Lives ;-)

    George Rebane

    For quite some time now (most recently here) I have been a lonely voice from the hills of Nevada County trying to convince people that our country’s financial crisis is not measured or reported properly.  Hyperventilation on the impending disasters of debt and deficits are presented as debt to GDP and deficit to federal budget ratios, and so published by economists and finance mavens through their foundations/blogs/websites.  This incomprehensible gibberish leaves people yawning.

    RebaneRatio 

    The critical measure that will make it all clear is the national debt service to GDP ratio.  That is because this ratio represents the country’s stark cashflow problem and impacts us immediately year-to-year.  Since no one seemed to understand or care, I modestly suggested that this little orphan ratio should be called the Rebane Ratio.

    Yesterday an RR reader sent me a link to a video of a Peterson Institute for International Economics presentation given by Harvard historian and business school professor Niall Ferguson.  Here the good professor goes through the arguments already familiar to RR readers on the coming financial brick wall toward which the US and other nations are heading.  Dr Ferguson cites recent IMF and OECD analyses that point to the Rebane Ratio as being the telling metric that informs us of the proximity and magnitude of the calamity.  This comes off as financial rocket science when it really isn’t.  The surprise is that no one has talked about it, and no one in the media publishes a chart or graph of this metric.  Let me explain.

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  • Gun Rights Staunch the Tide

    George Rebane

    The Supreme Court handed down a 5-4 ruling declaring that private ownership of guns is indeed a constitutionally guaranteed right (here).  Again, the courts have let the total control collectivists know that the “well regulated militia” phrase in the Second Amendment is not the comprehensive gun ban that they have been working towards under various guises since the end of WW2.  Now begin the lower court battles to roll back the byzantine strictures to combat gun ownership/use installed by the left over the years.

    As a lifelong NRA member, I will be following and supporting these engagements that also serve to reveal our individual values and concepts of government and governance.

    Riflerange I was thinking about all this yesterday afternoon on our local rifle range owned and operated by the Nevada County Sportsmens’ Club.  As members, we all have to do a certain number of hours of ‘club duty’ each year.  My contribution is to serve as rangemaster for the rifle and pistol range when the club invites the public to shoot noon to 4pm on Sunday afternoons.  So yesterday was my turn again to be ‘sheriff’, and make sure that shooters had a safe and enjoyable time on the range.  I learned this skill in the Army where almost every combat arms officer has to run a firing range to periodically re/qualify the troops under his command.  Being able to make available this community resource then becomes a privilege and an honor for those of us who understand the meaning of liberty and a civilized society that promotes gun ownership and use by law-abiding citizens.

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  • The Khan Academy

    George Rebane

    The significance of EVERY social problem/issue is due ONLY to the numbers that describe it – i.e. its dimensions and magnitude, rates of change, incidences, likelihoods of occurrence, relation to & impact on other things, and the alternatives, costs, and social utility of solutions.

    WizofId

    In response to the deplorable government statistics on the literacy and numeracy of the American electorate and adult population, I designed and presented a series of seminars on numeracy that was sponsored by the Nevada City Rotary Club and given at the Madelyn Helling Library.   This was augmented by the Numeracy Nuggets series on the SESF website (www.sesfoundation.org ) We all know what literacy is (although few know that our functional adult illiteracy rate is over 40%), but not many people understand the notion of numeracy.

    Numeracy is the ability to understand and use arithmetic, numerical concepts (ratios, percentages, interest rates, time value of money, etc), simple logic, elementary probability/uncertainty, read graphs and charts, …, in short, numbers based information that is reported daily in the public media.  Numeracy is the minimum skill set that enables critical thinking.  An innumerate person is denied that ability.  The late Arthur C. Clarke said, “In today’s world innumeracy is an even greater danger than illiteracy, and is perhaps even more common.  Advertisers and politicians exploit it, intellectuals (self-styled) even flaunt it.”  How many times have we heard an otherwise seemingly intelligent person say with some hubris, ‘Oh, I don’t do numbers.’?

    Our federal government pretty much gave up on attempts to address innumeracy after its incidence, according to its own measures (more here), exceeded about 90% in the adult population.  European governments recognized this scourge for a while longer, funding adult programs to combat innumeracy.  Today, no government is concerned with such efforts, perhaps because innumerate voters are much more malleable, and all political parties are convinced of their superior ability to persuade the great unwashed.

    Well, the power of the internet has again come to the rescue of those who want to be rescued.  Mr. Salman Khan has recorded over 1,500 short online YouTube videos on math and science into a collection he calls the Kahn Academy.  These bite-sized gems start with basic arithmetic and go into the heights of differential equations and linear algebra with everything in between.  He also covers physics, chemistry, and elements of finance.  It is a labor of love and free to all who are willing to relinquish an episode or two of Survivors in order to help us all survive.  (short article here)

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  • A Uniquely Internet Colloquium

    George Rebane

    SoapBoxOratory Here’s something that came with the explosion of weblogs, street corners and soap boxes of opportunity that people can take advantage of as a matter of convenience.  Last March I posted a piece – ‘The Sad Tale of Anna Haynes’ – on the unseemly in-your-face tactics of our local advocate of man-made global warming (AGW).  And after a little passage of time, the comment stream on that post was revived by a group of people debating climate change who apparently were denied a forum on other True Believers’ blogs – a not uncommon occurrence with ‘the debate is over’ crowd.  I’m not sure how they wound up on RR, but I suspect that Dr Haynes’ high jinks had something to do with it.  Russ Steele, our local well-read purveyor of climate change skepticism on NCMW, probably has more information to share on all this.

    These exchanges are almost all civil and get into some detail on the issue itself.  Even I was taken to task by one of the commenters to explain my unique contribution to AGW skepticism.  Anyway, check out an arbitrary collection of passionate people choosing another convenient streetlight under which to air their points of view.  It could only happen on the 21st century internet.

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  • Ruminations – 26jun2010 (updated)

    George Rebane

    “Never seek justice, only mercy.” Coach Dick Beede

    - NRA’s deal with the devil
    - Secular Islam censoring ‘anti-Islam’ search engines
    - McChrystal’s substance starting to seep
    - Barry Pruett starts blogging

    The latest progressive assault on First Amendment rights is in full swing with Charlie Schumer et al leading the way with the ‘Disclose Act’ that would require advocacy groups to run a new regulatory gauntlet to get their word out.  Old and large single issue (Second Amendment) advocacy group, National Rifle Association (of which I am a member), correctly opposed the bill and said so.  The Schumer socialists then replied with a ‘large and old organization set aside’ that would exclude organizations like the NRA and, of course, big unions.  NRA would then withhold its opposition.  But smaller advocacy groups that come into being to oppose/support timely and important issues would have to run the censorship gauntlet.  (more here)

    NRA sent out letters to its outraged members (me included) explaining its position, and claiming total victory in avoiding being muzzled by the Disclose Act.  What the NRA seems to have overlooked is that we defend the Second Amendment only because it is the lynchpin for upholding the Constitution, and all the other amendments starting with the First – free speech.  Allowing the smaller advocacy groups to be bundled and thrown under the bus hearkens back to the Germany of the 1930s – ‘First they came for the Jews, but I didn’t complain because I wasn’t a Jew, then they came for …’.  We must recall that the pen is mightier than the sword only to the extent that it can invoke the sword (one of Rebane's Reality Rules).  What will then invoke the sword when that pen is taken away? 

    The left stopped direct assault on the Second Amendment a few years back as a losing proposition.  And now we understand the progressives’ game, and why Congress continues to play footsie with the ‘Fairness Doctrine’.

    [update] Meanwhile the leftwing beat goes on.  At a recent forum titled 'The Control of Public Media as a Social Justice Issue', Scott Sanders, a Chicago-based 'media activist' said, "social justice movements need to radically re-invision the US public service media system. It would be almost unrecognizable alongside the current version – alternative democratic structures to govern public media and radio.  Democratic participation in cultural civic production only occurs when the powerless speak to themselves and to wider audiences." (more here)

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  • KVMR Commentary – Competence, Complexity, or Complicity

    George Rebane

    [This is a transcript of my most recent KVMR 89.5FM commentary that was broadcast earlier this evening.]

    Competence, complexity, or complicity.  Earlier this week President Obama fired his commander of the Afghanistan war, General Stanley McChrystal.  The president had every right to fire his general, and in this case the general gave the president cause to replace him.  But commentary surrounding this historic dismissal mostly missed a very important point – was there any substance to the general’s criticisms of Obama and his Washington national security staff?

    President Obama has surrounded himself with the largest cohort of far left ideologues that includes the smallest number of people with any experience in the private sector of any president on record.  Only about 8% of his senior staff has business experience, the rest are former career politicians and government lawyers.  For other presidents this fraction did not dip below 50%.

    And this staff was prepared for bringing about a fundamental transformation in the world’s leading capitalist country.  What was he thinking when he planned to nationalize healthcare, take over major private industries, revamp the country’s energy policy, and stimulate the private sector with an explosion of the government sector and a stifling increase in national debt?

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  • Economic Enlightenment

    George Rebane

    A lot of the ideological dust ups, both locally and nationally, involve understanding and interpreting some pretty fundamental economic factors.  Zeljka Buturovic and Daniel B. Klein published research (‘Economic Enlightenment in Relation to College-going, Ideology, and Other Variables: A Zogby Survey’) of Americans based on a survey of over four thousand American adults on their beliefs about such economic factors.  The results can be downloaded from here, and are remarkable in that they pretty much follow the plausible path for those leaning to the right.  The work also explains the lack of correlation between economic enlightenment and college education.  It is one that most well-read people already suspect, and those of us who have taught at the university level have directly experienced with our colleagues of the professoriate.  The paper is neither long nor complex, and a pretty quick read with references for digging deeper.  I can already hear the howls.

    Oh yes, and here’s this week’s little contribution to curing insomnia.  Big pharma shudders.

    NCARRA100625 

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  • ERC Makes It Happen Again

    George Rebane

    This morning you could not find a parking place within a quarter mile of the Holiday Inn Express in Grass Valley.  The event was the Small Business & Entrepreneur Seminar sponsored by our very own Economic Resource Council.  Speaking to an SRO assembly of small business owners, entrepreneurs, and those thinking about sticking their toe into business ownership was an array of qualified speakers from various local jurisdictions and NGOs all leaning forward to help get something going and going stronger to help our community prosper.

    ERCseminar 

    Officiating in his finest fettle was Mr Gil Mathew the CEO and head honcho of ERC.  Gil has to be one of our community’s finest gentlemen who is constantly giving of himself to build Nevada County and help others enjoy the business success that he himself created right here where we all live.

    I was also particularly impressed by the presentations of Nevada City councilwoman Sally Harris and Grass Valley Mayor Lisa Swarthout.  They spoke about their own business experiences here in Nevada County and how they used available government assisted financing to get things going.  Both women were knowledgeable about their subject and gave a clear, complete, and concise accounting of how it was done.  I am heartened that we have electeds in office with such business backgrounds.

    And for you out there contemplating the use of other people’s money to start or grow your business, contact the city halls of Nevada City, Grass Valley, and even the county’s Rood Center to see if you can get your meat hooks into some of the cash they have waiting there for folks just like you.

    All in all, it was another good and well-received gathering to promote local wealth generation and prosperity for the place we all call home.  Thank you ERC.

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  • Obama fires his general

    George Rebane

    ObamaMcChrystal President Obama fired General McChrystal this morning for allowing his staff to be frank with at least one Rolling Stone reporter embedded in McChrystal’s headquarters in Kabul.  Apparently it was also no secret that the general did not think highly of Obama’s civilian national security team, nor Obama’s leadership of the entire military effort.  All of this was most certainly adequate grounds for the general’s dismissal, and it’s difficult to conceive how after this our middle east policy could have gone forward with McChrystal and his staff still in Afghanistan.

    But in the middle of all the hubbub surrounding this historic act and how the Afghanistan war will now be managed, very little is being said about the substantive aspects of McChrystal’s criticisms.  McChrystal’s points were sufficiently detailed and came from an experienced and highly respected military leader so as to demand examination on their own merits.  The entire episode again shines a light on Obama’s competency to handle the post into which he was emoted with absolutely no credentials beyond looks and elocution.

    We should all be keeping an eye on how the various media handle this momentous event.  I predict the lame stream media will not touch it, and Fox News will have difficulty in getting their arms around it.  But not to worry, the blogosphere will no doubt continue to cover the competency controversy, and some of it may even escape out into the airwaves.

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  • Ruminations – 22jun2010

    George Rebane

    • Lamphier and Diaz victories
    • Smart meters and robots
    • Overseas Contingency Operations
    • Time to blow the well from hell?

    I guess if The Union says it’s so, it must be so.  Terry Lamphier’s victory over incumbent John Spencer for District #3 county supervisor was a most curious display of self-interest by the voters.  It wasn’t as if Lamphier’s qualifications were a mystery as RR and other local blogs pointed out months ago.  But for those paying attention, Bryan Caplan’s Myth of the Rational Voter played out right here in Nevada County.  Mr Lamphier simply ran a better campaign, betting that the voter had no clue as to the qualifications and demonstrated experience of both candidates.  He won the bet, and the county lost.

    In the Diaz/Pruett race for Clerk-Recorder we had another case of the word not getting out as to Mr Diaz’s competence.  Again local blogs tried to lift the lid on the matter, but Mr Diaz had the support of the county leadership which was a too heavy burden for first-timer Barry Pruett to overcome.  It took an election to confirm the minority opinion about incumbent Diaz’s competence.  I’m sure even more will emerge later, unless, of course, all of it gets buried along with the egg scraped off some pretty prominent faces around here.

    Wherever you live, you’ll soon be getting a ‘smart meter’ to measure and control your electricity use.  Then you’ll be buying appliances and other electric powered devices that contain a little chip that tells the powers that be when and how much it is being used.  That little puppy will also allow the powers that be to make it so you can’t use the device when you’re not supposed to use it.  And if you think these things will be just used to control your energy usage, then you should go back to watching American Idol.  For the others, Russ Steele is tracking this brave new world, and has posted an expanded piece on all this here.

    Meanwhile smart machines have already invaded the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan to an extent that should make all free world citizens thinks twice (thinking twice is not allowed under autocratic governments).  In addition to those Unmanned Aerial Vehicles firing Hellfire missiles down on the ragheads, we have all kinds of other automated thingies that sense, communicate, and kill.  Some of them are very small, some fly, some crawl, some even change shape to get into hard places.  As described in a good Scientific American article here, and here from my friend Dr Larry Press, this field is literally exploding with the advances in AI and computing power.  For some reason the article does not contemplate the use of such technology by a government to suppress dissent within its own borders.  But then, maybe the smart chip in your dishwasher will allow them to nip that kind of dissent in the bud.

    Speaking of ragheads, Faisal Shahzad, the American raghead who tried to blow up Times Square, told us again in court that we are in a war against Islam, and deserve to have our women and children blown to smithereens.  Meanwhile our feckless leaders have gone into terminal denial about all of this, not even deigning to call the sumbiches terrorists, and trading in our already weak soup recent ‘war on terror’ for ‘overseas contingency operation’.

    GulfOilLeak100620 

    Finally, is it time to blow the well from hell?  The more we read about that BP blowout in the Gulf, the more it sounds like all the possible risky scenarios of trying to plug it on the seafloor have not been made public nor fully evaluated.  For more on the ongoing saga of this disaster, a RR reader recommends this link.  The relief wells are now within 200 feet of the spewing well casing.  This is within striking distance of what I described here.  Someone somewhere should be considering this alternative before we have a Mt. St. Helens under water.

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4 comments on The ‘Rebane Ratio’ Lives ;-)