Rebane's Ruminations
November 2026
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  • George Rebane

    • Sweden’s drift to right
    • Global Warming, more curiouser than ever
    • ‘Counterfactuals’ among Cars for Clunkers

    Sweden has long been the American progressive’s poster child for successful socialism.  Conservative libertarians like me have had limited success in pointing out the obvious to the leftwingers and ho-hummers that none of that form of governance is sustainable.  Now it looks like the Swedes are joining the other EU countries in their retreat from socialism by moving to a center-right government in their recent elections (here).  It was the only reasonable way out of the “economic gloom and joblessness” that has also gripped this perennial leader of collectivist thought.  It was a number of factors – economy, liberties, immigration, … – that brought Swedes to this enlightenment.  But the bottom line is that they finally started running out of other people’s money.  We, on the other hand, think that we’ve cracked the code to collectivism – we’re going to tax the ‘rich’ and redistribute.  The Swedes, among others, have been there and done that.

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  • George Rebane

    Longitude We recently watched the somewhat flawed A&E production of ‘Longitude’, the story of John Harrison’s invention of the marine chronometer in 18th century England.  In the early 1700s global trade and commerce were exploding along with European conquests of newly discovered lands.  The big problem at the time was that it was not possible to accurately determine one’s east/west position or longitude on the globe (north/south or latitude was fairly easy to measure).  Because of this, ships, crews, and valuable cargoes were lost, and cross ocean voyages took much longer.

    The safest way was called ‘parallel latitude’ sailing in which you picked a safe and feasible latitude to go across the ocean, and then sailed to that latitude while keeping land in sight before heading directly east or west across the ocean.   When you got to the other side, you again sailed along the coast until you came to your destination. This method did not permit sailing the shortest distance from point A to point B along the so-called great circle route which connects the two.  For that you needed to know your longitude while under way, and for that you needed a very accurate clock.  Enter John Harrison (1693-1776) and the Longitude Prize (of about $2.5 million today), and the British government’s Board of Longitude (BoL) that would adjudicate the competition to develop a practical method of obtaining longitude and award the prize.

    The invention and adoption of a working marine chronometer was an extremely important objective for Great Britain, as it became the world’s leading maritime nation.  Its use had a direct bearing on success in war and success in commerce.  Yet it turned out that the BoL through bureaucratic bungling and petty disputes kept jacking Harrison around for almost fifty years before it finally acknowledged that the man had cracked the code on longitude decades before.  The BoL never did give its imprimatur and award the prize to Harrison or anyone else.  Instead it kept Harrison on the hook through small piecemeal stipends to make clock after clock that it found new reasons not to accept.  Meanwhile, ships and men wound up on the rocks.

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  • George Rebane

    A heartening and well written op-ed piece ‘Like Having a Job? You’ll love Proposition 23’ appeared in 18sep10 The Union by James Kellogg, an official with the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry.  These people, who organize workers in profit making private firms, have taken a look at how AB32, California’s global warming law, will raze such jobs in this state.  And they concur with every credible independent analysis that gives lie to the progressive hoopla touting that more taxes, more regulations, and more federal subsidies are the solution to California’s unemployment and corporate exodus.

    The only ones who still gather on the media hilltops to fight Prop23 are those whose wallets get filled from the public trough – led by the thousands at the California Air Resources Board, countless leftwing state enforcement bureaus, dubious public funded NGOs like our local Sierra Business Council, public service employee unions like the SEIU, and, of course, various private enterprises who see their investments insured by government guarded ‘green markets’ (remember the ethanol epidemic).  The chairman of CARB will be here on the evening of 29 September singing for her supper at the Nevada City city hall.

    Frantic lies about jobs creation and the 500,000 “clean tech” jobs at risk are pushed at the public daily, a public that really doesn’t have a clue about what is happening and will vote randomly, nudged by what clever sound bites most recently nibbled on their ears.  The economic facts, as recorded here and other local blogs (NCMW, CABPRO Report, Inside NC Politics – links on the right), point to the loss of wealth creating jobs, loss of for-profit businesses, and uniformly higher consumer costs for EVERYTHING.

    Prop23 has clearly added an ideological dimension beyond economics to the whole issue.  The only ones denying the next step to socialism are the usual leftwing sources including bloggers who try to make the rounds hiding under their ill-fitting ‘middle of the roader’ suits.

    The only organized voices for Prop23 have been conservative politicians, tea partiers, and job sustaining industry (including, yes Martha, those dreaded “filthy oil companies”) who are eyeing their job killing out-of-state options if Prop23 fails.  Now we proponents of Prop23 are joined by private sector unions who are keenly aware of what maintains their membership rolls – and it isn’t the paltry 10,000 subsidized jobs that AB32 claims to add as it eliminates many times that number.  The taxpayers of California welcome the private sector unions – now go put your shoulders to the wheel.  In the meantime, vote YES on Prop23.

  • George Rebane

    This week I finished reading The Grand Design by Drs Stephen Hawking and Leonard Mlodinow.  I posted earlier on a review of their new book at ‘Evicting God – The Latest Attempt’ which generated an interesting comment thread.

    These are Galaxies!! 

    Hawking and Mlodinow have a best seller on their hands (it’s already number one in hardcover non-fiction), and fortunately the writing style is vintage Hawking – compact, simple, and to the point – that includes his occasional humorous injections.  The book is a first class, high quality production with generous use of lavish illustrations and the occasional cartoon that prevents us from getting too serious about the subject.  Actually, the subject is serious since H&M have nothing less in mind than explaining the ultimate nature of reality to us.

    At the start our intrepid authors state that their objective is to answer these questions –

    Why is there something rather than nothing?
    Why do we exist?
    Why this particular set of laws and not some other?

    And they give it a mighty try, arriving in the end at a point that is close enough for government work.  But along the way we learn so many things from such a short essay (the entire book is under 200 pages).  We are given a surprisingly thorough overview of the history of human thought about existence and the universe.  And even before that we are assured that “philosophy is dead”, and then have some pretty heavy duty philosophy poured over our heads for the remainder of the book.

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  • George Rebane

    [This commentary was broadcast tonight on KVMR-FM 89.5 as the latest offering of my bi-weekly series that is gratefully tolerated by the station's management.]

    We have spent at least the last ten years talking past each other about global warming.  The combatants divide themselves mostly into two camps, each with provocative names for the other.  Most often heard from are the so-called True Believers who are convinced that 1) global warming is real and catastrophic, 2) that it is manmade, and 3) that drastic cuts in carbon emissions is the only workable solution.

    From the other side the so-called Deniers believe that 1) global warming, or whatever is happening today, is part of normal climate change, 2) human activity has minimal effect on climate, and 3) drastic cuts in carbon emissions will destroy the economies that make all environmental progress possible.

    And then there are the Skeptics who somehow get lost in the shouting, and wind up being pushed into one camp or the other.  The Skeptics believe that 1) climate change is occurring, 2) while it may true, man-made catastrophic global warming has yet to be proved scientifically – i.e. the debate is not over, and 3) drastic cuts in carbon emissions will not affect the course of earth’s climate, and will definitely impair our ability to improve our environment, and deal with many more pressing problems in the world.

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  • George Rebane

    An RR reader sent a little notice from Australia.  It seems that there are folks down under who are also getting a little tired of the country’s recent leftward swings.  Having had no one dump tea into one of their harbors, they have labeled their version the TEA Party movement for ‘taxed enough already’.  Read more about it here in The Australian.

    Who’d a thought that this homegrown awakening against government corruption had legs.  Maybe the movement will go viral across the world, and people all over will start looking at their governments through new eyes, and maybe … .  Well I can dream, can’t I?

  • George Rebane

    The most recent $30B stimulus bill in Congress just had its only beneficial organ removed by the Democrats.  President Obama’s draft of the bill included a permanent corporate tax credit for R&D expenses.  This was a recognition of America’s historical lead in technology development and technology supported workplace productivity, and during the recession it might be beneficial if the private sector received a tax break on investments into technologies that might even include green stuff.

    Technology 

    Wiser socialist heads in Congress immediately recognized the danger in letting such a cash and control lever out of their hands.  Who knows what all kinds of good stuff might now come out of private industry that is not beholden to Washington politicians and bureaucrats.  Why they might even commit the most horrible act of discovery ever – the development of sustainable energy production or savings methodologies that are actually profitable.  At a minimum, those sneaky capitalist bastards will come out with more gizmos that increase productivity.  And then fewer of our loyal voters will be needed in an economy to which we have already tied a few permanent anchors (aka ‘structural friction’).  No, no, no!

    Such a tax credit would then mean no more ability to target favored industries working on favored boondoggles to sell product into mandated markets, and guarantee favored riskless profits from which grateful campaign contributions would flow back to you know who.  By pulling back this obvious benefit to the nation, progressives have again revealed their baseline motivations – command and control, and above all, re-election.

    As cynical as I am about all things collective and subsidized – especially in the government/industrial complex – I would not be surprised if some of that much-hyped green California venture capital participated in bringing this little item to the attention of the congressional dufus division.  ‘Hey, Harry and Nancy, if you let this provision survive in the new ‘Jobs Bill’, then how will you be able to guarantee the profitability of our green investments when who knows who all will be competing?’

  • George Rebane

    ### Three years ago when I noodled some numbers on US workforce and educational trends, the demonstrated illiteracy and innumeracy of our labor, and the acceleration of technology in these pre-Singularity years, an unexpected result stared back at me.  According to my analysis, about 70 million American workers, or almost half of our today’s workforce, would be unable to competitively sell their labor so as to maintain their quality of life.  Their fate would be to become wards of the state or riot.  In any event, they would live a few notches lower on the hog.  When I wrote and talked about this, the response was mostly divided between ho-hum and ‘not in America’.  And it still is.

    Well, the International Monetary Fund is now beginning to take note of this effect and sees no abatement of the unemployment rate in the coming years for countries like the US, Spain, and other former stalwarts of the west.  In fact, the IMF warns that “We have to act quickly before unemployment becomes a structural problem.”  When that happens the warning extends to social disruptions – i.e. blood in the gutters. (report here)

    IMF’s solution is for governments, led by the US, to throw tons of newly printed money to ‘stimulate and create employment’ while their economies still have the credibility to borrow.  However, their brain brigade can’t see beyond the ‘then what?’ after millions of unqualifieds are employed at make-work jobs that deliver a net cost to an economy instead of creating wealth.   This is already the growing nationwide cancer of buildings full of unionized state workers who serve primarily as a friction on the country’s productive sectors.  And our current efforts to create subsidized ‘green jobs’ (politically renamed ‘clean tech’) is a poster child for this stimulus approach.  Spain gave up on the subsidized green jobs after disastrous results to its economy; other European countries are following suit.  In California the progressives are repeating every lie in the book to get AB32’s global warming provisions fully implemented.  (Vote YES on Prop23)

    The IMF is not the brightest bulb on the chandelier of world financial institutions, so when it finally recognizes something happening, it should be obvious to most.  But that’s not really true either.  The OMB, CBO, and the Republican Party give no hint that they recognize the coming of structural unemployment in America.  The Democrats, while not actually acknowledging the problem, are giving comfort to those who in their gut know they will never again be a competitive worker.  Their solution is the easy sell of class warfare through policies based on the Peter/Paul Principle.

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  • George Rebane

    The more you redistribute,
    the less you have to redistribute.

    Socialism The very liberal truthout.com is absolutely frantic in its email seeking donations from its readers.  The fear of the conservatives they profess matches or exceeds anything equivalent I have seen coming from the right in reference to the left.  Here’s their opening (original emphasis) –

    Tea Party candidates across the US have been winning primaries and are pushing the Republican Party even further to the extreme conservative fringe.

    Our worst fears about the Tea Party appear to be coming true. The racism, disregard for reality, selfishness and enthusiasm for gun ownership has progressives lying awake at night, staring at the ceiling, wondering how hard it would be to move to an island. But the real question is: Why are the most extreme candidates on the right winning?

    For the answer, turn on your radio and scan the AM stations. Right-wing talk radio is dominant. The hosts have spent hours every day spreading a conservative morality across the country. Just today, Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh broadcast a combined six hours promoting Tea Party candidates and lambasting efforts to make wealthy Americans pay slightly higher taxes. Billionaires (and many millionaires) are funding these efforts in droves.

    This is a pretty bleak picture the progressives have of us conservatives, and especially those of us who are connected to any of the multiple factions of the Tea Party movement.  (For the record, the Tea Party Patriots, the largest of the factions, does not endorse any candidates as a matter of policy.  That cannot be said for the Tea Party Express and FreedomWorks.)

    Our views on the governance of a free (or not so free) society are literally 180 degrees out.  Both sides are scared to death of a future in which the values and mores of the other become the standard for society.  Never have so many disagreed about so much with each other.  We no longer debate issues because the ground rules each side follows originate from different realities.

    The only ray of hope for a peaceful parting is that some progressives think they can create enough wealth to make it on their own.  Sadly they are a minority; the majority of progressives know in their heart of hearts that without the conservatives they will be fiscally on their collective butt.  Nevertheless, they remain convinced that the wealth created by the conservatives is really theirs – “Give them the wealth!  Give them the power!”  (Van Jones).  That this wealth creation will come to a grinding end once their fundamental transformation is in place never enters their mind.

    Has anyone found any ‘middle ground’ lately?

6 comments on Scattershots – 20sep2010