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  • … and they knew not what they had witnessed.

    George Rebane

    IBM_WatsonAd Really!  The ease with which IBM’s Watson supercomputer dispatched its champion human opponents on Jeopardy last night, will go down as perhaps the first pre-Singularity temblor on this third planet from the Sun.  During the three session tournament, Watson showed the world what the next phase of living with intelligent computers will be like.  We’re not talking about something in the future, we’re talking right now.  IBM will make sure that everyone who wants a Watson will get one, and IBM’s competitors will make sure that IBM will not be the only one selling such smart machines that can understand and talk to humans about literally all the world’s knowledge.

    Ray Kurzweil, one my oft-cited Singularity authors (The Singularity Is Near) and creative giants of technology, writes ‘When Computers Beat Humans on Jeopardy’ in today’s WSJ.  Here he makes the point that Watson and its progeny might have a relatively easy time passing the Turing Test, with a minor adjustment that is.  Watson would have to be dumbed down, else the human tester would quickly discover that Watson could instantly answer questions that no single human could.

    I would also make a note about your whereabouts on the evening of 16 February 2011, your grandchildren will be asking you about that in the future.  Take a look at the nearby full page ad that IBM ran in today’s WSJ.  It hopefully declares that “Humans win!” – well, some humans will win.  But regular RR readers know what Watson’s performance portends, and will be able to interpret this as the quantum leap toward the Singularity that it is.  Hedge fund manager, financial guru, and author Andy Kessler writes ‘Is Your Job an Endangered Species?’,  please read this in light of what you have heard here over the last several years, and especially in light of what happened last night.  I may have to increase my estimate of the 70 million American un/underemployed in 2020 – the jobs ballgame is changing that fast.  And stay tuned, stay very tuned.

    Homework assignment:  Describe how Watson-like and Watson-plus (RACR) machines will be factored into the social justice equation so dear to progressive hearts.

    [Addendum – Yesterday I recorded my bi-weekly KVMR-FM commentary that will air tomorrow (18feb11) evening.  It was about Watson and its anticipated sweep of the its human competitors on Jeopardy.  I would have had to re-record if Watson had not lived up to my expectations.  The transcript will be posted here tomorrow night as usual.]

  • George Rebane

    Three European leaders recently concluded very publicly that unassimilated multiculturalism in their countries was not only a failure, but a dangerous failure (here).  In America that is not yet received wisdom as we are again reminded of the ongoing saga of Major Nidal Malik ‘Allahu Akbar!’ Hasan – the Ft Hood Islamic terrorist who killed 13 and wounded 32 more.

    This massacre was perpetrated by an institutionalized political correctness in our Department of Defense that wears multicultural blinders causing it to ignore the most blatant and obvious evidence of hatred against western civilization in general and America in particular.  Now all branches of the military have analyzed and reported on the Ft Hood massacre.  And given what has happened in the interval here and all around the world, none of the reports mention radical Islam as a causative or contributive factor to Hasan’s atrocity.  (more here)

    I take this to be the latest harbinger of our relentless slide as a nation.  As a child, student, and defender of western civilization, I feel very alone when I see my government invite continued assaults from all quarters on American culture, values, and mores.  We go on spewing the ‘all cultures are equal’ pabulum while no longer defending our birthrights.  And that for us in the end will be deadly.

    [18feb2011 update]  Thinking it as an intellectual given, I almost didn’t expect pushback on the thesis of this post.  Nevertheless, there it was in the comment thread, and most of it stayed on topic.  Historically multiple cultures living under a single political government have kept the peace primarily through separation and the government’s brutal force of arms.  Countries and empires divided into ethnic provinces and into smaller regions into “quarters” that had no political and social contact with each other, and tolerated a commercial contact of necessities.  Not exactly what we view as the American ideal.

    When assimilation occurred, it did so over generations and usually at the cost of one culture assimilating its weaker counterpart.  In short multiculturalism per se did not survive.

    Throughout history forced multiculturalism has abruptly ended with the downfall of the enforcing government, after which the (usually violent) separation of cultures has been the immediate aftermath.  Modern examples abound with the British Raj leaving India, the implosion of the USSR, the fall of Yugoslavia, and most recently Sadam Hussein’s Iraq.

    Such politically incorrect history has not been taught to our young by the left dominated public schools.  Instead the mental midgets who mentor our classrooms have pushed the worship of a particularly dysfunctional form of “diversity” and “inclusion” which is Marxist in its modern inception, and seeks to prepare its acolytes for global citizenship.

    The question now posed is, ‘Given that multiculturalism is a deadly affectation in America, what do we do about it?’  The implication is that we want to ‘do’ something that will keep America whole within its modern boundaries.  Let me start by saying that such solutions may no longer exist.  Jefferson’s “A nation ignorant and free …” echoes across the centuries; we may have become too ignorant to save ourselves as the historical sovereign nation-state founded in 1776.

    But were we to attempt to save the country, the natural starting place would be to robustly re-establish our national totems (flags, statuary, pledge of allegiance, music, …) in all public places and all public occasions.  Most certainly our children’s history books would have to be rewritten again – books that, say, would once again give more column inches to George Washington than to Cesar Chavez.  Civics classes that focused on American exceptionalism and political unity rather than inclusionary diversity (whatever the hell that is) would re-enter the curriculum.  And most of all we need to re-establish the three most important things that are common to a culture – language, language, language.  Speak what you will at home, but in public and the workplace be fully communicative in English.

    [21feb2011 update]  The news on the disastrous failure of multiculturalism in Europe just keeps pouring in.  It's almost as if for years people were afraid to open their mouths, and now that national leaders have taken their fingers out of the dike, the flood of reality is washing over the continent with a splash or two getting noticed on this side of the Pond.  Russ Steele sent me this link 'Europe's Mulitculturalism Leading to Civil War?' on Islamic 'no-go zone' that have arisen in countries like France, Germany, and Great Britain.  "France has some 751 "No Go" zones. The French government has labeled these areas 'sensitive urban zones' that are dangerous for whites and non-Muslims to enter."

  • George Rebane

    ObamaChange2 Conservative syndicated columnist and radio host Michael Medved writes in the 14feb11 WSJ that ‘Obama Isn’t Trying to ‘Weaken America’’.  His somewhat torturous path through the history of well-meaning Presidents concludes that President Obama isn’t trying to weaken America because he too shares the awe and respect for the office with his predecessors.  In short, the implication is that Obama’s disastrous policies which have weakened America, and continue to do so, are not the “result of a diabolical master plan for national destruction”, but just the result of incompetence and bungling by a well-meaning President.

    Well yes, that is a plausible and tempting assessment of the current administration.  However, in my opinion, a more useful one that would equally satisfy Occam is that he simply intends to do what he has said all along.  No devious diabolics are needed to explain away the observables.  Assume the man is not stupid, and that he sees the world in a transition to a yet to be determined form of global governance.  America’s current strength and world hegemony stands squarely in the way of such a unification – it is El Domino Primo.  And America must be brought to heel before the other sovereign nation-states will fall in compliance.

    So how does an astute collectivist administration accomplish that feat?  Simply by doing exactly what it is doing now.  On the current path America will be ready in the shortest time to join the community of nations as an equal, sharing its remaining wealth and knowhow to the benefit of all the world’s peoples.  To its adherents such a credo and its attendant goal are anything but evil.  And the President, along with his known circle of advisors and institutional sponsors, has made this noble end more than perfectly clear.  Occam would be equally satisfied by seeing Obama within this framework.

    And so viewed, Obama then emerges as the nation’s first post-American President.  He is yet young enough to see his vision come to fruition, and hence it is equally plausible for him to consider the American Presidency as a stepping stone to higher office.  Therefore, if one wishes to counter his efforts, it is more useful to view him as smart, energetic, and focused on achieving his goals.

    [update]  The release of the administration’s 2012 budget proposal today confirms that President Obama is smart and cynical in the extreme.  And he continues to bet that at least one half of the national electorate is ignorant beyond redemption.  It is an astute bet.

    [15feb2011 update]  As the hours pass since Obama’s budget hit the public eye, more and more comedy (perfidy?) is being wrung out of its assumptions and numbers.  Here is a particularly clear example of some of the shenanigans that are in that hernia pack.  H/T to RR reader for the link.

  • George Rebane

    GrammarForDummies Our English, as a language to express complex and abstract thoughts, is almost absent from conversations of not only the young, but also people already in their forties.  I was reminded of that again during this morning’s sermon when our pastor totally destroyed any notion of properly using personal pronouns – ‘… and then they asked he and I to come …’.

    When we got home my email contained a note with a link to an article about the death throes of English as commonly used today.  Reading the report (here) with sample quotes was almost as painful as actually listening to someone attempting to speak.  Among the points made was the expanding absence of abstract thoughts in today’s communications.

    The piece recounted the almost diseased uses of ‘like’ multiple times in a short sentence.  Also noted was the common habit, primarily by females, of ending declarative sentences in a questioning inflection, as if the speaker was in doubt about the simplest of things.

    To abstract and summarize an experience or idea today is attempted by the most torturous of soliloquies that consist of recounting statement by statement the contributions of the participants.  No conclusion is, or perhaps, can be offered.  And the unaided listener is left to draw his own conclusion about whether the dialogue had any point whatsoever.

    Author Clark Whelton identifies the mid-eighties as the approximate start of this linguistic pandemic, discounting attempts at earlier starts with such afflictions as ‘Valleyspeak’ that was already prevalent in the LA suburbs of the seventies.  But that was the decade when the problematic pedagogical produce of the Great Society was firmly ensconced in classrooms across the land.  It was also the decade when other components of a young person’s education were deconstructed in the public schools.  New math was being poured into young minds, the utility of grammar was abandoned, and history was being revised into a more progressive view of the past.  Hopeless change was already in the air as attempt was accepted for achievement.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    TimeMagazine110211 Readers know that one of the dominant themes of RR has been the Singularity (see the RR Singularity category for more).  As a technologist and AI researcher I have been a Singularitarian for most of my life.  Ray Kurzweil has done civilization the service of becoming the most dominant and credible spokesman for accelerating technology and the prospect of functional immortality.  But even in this age of information tsunamis, most people have no clue about what the Singularity is, and that they are living in the pre-Singularity years during which humanity’s ballgame is being changed to its very core.

    Perhaps this age of ignorance is closer to ending with Time Magazine’s extended cover story of The Singularity (here).  It is well written and covers most of the major issues related to this epochal event.  From there we read –

    The difficult thing to keep sight of when you’re talking about the Singularity is that even though it sounds like science fiction, it isn’t, no more than a weather forecast is science fiction. It’s not a fringe idea; it’s a serious hypothesis about the future of life on Earth. There’s an intellectual gag reflex that kicks in anytime you try to swallow an idea that involves super-intelligent immortal cyborgs, but suppress it if you can, because while the Singularity appears to be, on the face of it, preposterous, it’s an idea that rewards sober, careful evaluation.

    I believe that if we seek to truly understand what is happening today and what near futures may be in store for us, then that effort will be futile, or at best incoherent, if it excludes the advent of the Singularity.

  • George Rebane

    [This is the submitted version of my 12feb 2011 Union column published today in its print and online version here.]

    Some of us recall the time of ‘population bombs’, ‘megatrends’, and the coming ice age thawing into ‘hothouse earth’.  The 1970s were a bleak time – a lost war, economy in stagflation, the Soviets’ trigger finger on the ‘now or never’ button, and a Peanut Farmer at the helm.  Somehow we managed to survive that with a new rush of enthusiasm that brought on twenty years of the greatest creative and wealth generating enthusiasm since WW2, and the demise of the USSR in the bargain.  But that was then, this is now.

    Today we are back in the age of megatrends big time.  But this time, economically we are in debt beyond our ability to repay, and structurally unemployed with no plan beyond fervent hope that history will somehow repeat itself.  And according to Professor J. A. Goldstone of George Mason University, these aren’t even the real megatrends into the face of which we are on a firm course.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    Yesterday we lost manufacturing jobs, tomorrow will we lose service jobs?  The fate of the American worker has been a longstanding concern in these pages.  For various reasons our political leadership (both sides) is blind to what is in store for our workers, or they simply want to keep us all docile for as long as possible (at least until they are out of office).  I want to take another opportunity to dissipate some of the mist surrounding jobs from recent news reports that may not have wide purview.  Full disclosure: what follows may be detrimental to the cardiovascular health of the firmly entrenched progressive reader – take no chances.

    Homesourcing First and foremost, we have to get over the absolute bullcrap that the US is going to remake its workplaces in the image of Gaia soothing green tech, or cleantech, or whatever new moniker the progressives use to sell their big government control of the American job market.  The alternative energy technologies that some day may become economically feasible will, in all likelihood, be developed overseas and their offspring products manufactured there as well.  Oh, we will have a share of the market, but that will mainly consist of installing the imported stuff into our homes and infrastructure.

    One of the left’s biggest lies in selling the cap and tax AB32 (with the defeat of Prop23) to California’s semi-literates was hawking all the astute investment going into a new generation of Silicon Valley cleantech firms, investments coming out of Sand Hill Rd (home of west coast venture capitalists) to fund California’s resurgence as the tech development capital of America.  Well, it didn’t happen, and it ain’t gonna happen – technology companies and workers are still leaving California.  A no holds commentary on this was recently given by Scott McNealy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems and Silicon Valley tech pioneer, in the 10feb11 WSJ (here).

    About the resurgence of green tech jobs in California, McNealy says, “I’m skeptical that the green jobs are going to drive the recovery.  So far the track record’s been terrible.  That’s going to be a challenge for the people here who stuck their neck out to go green.”  And to put a bow on it, McNealy goes on to say –

    I see a migration from the early days of the Valley. We aren’t doing manufacturing; we aren’t doing design; we aren’t doing computers. It’s all moving to Asia and other places where there are lots of technical engineers who are willing to work at a more reasonable salary because they don’t have to spend $3.5 million on a home and pay half of it to taxes.

    I think every new transition has created less job opportunity as technology has become very leveraged. I don’t think our education system, our regulations, our government policies have kept pace with the changes that technology is driving. (emphasis mine)

    Two factors add to this overall assessment – the level of unemployed engineers, and the polarization of students with critical job skills.  The 11feb11 American Thinker reports (here, H/T Russ Steele for link) that as recently as 2009 the Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 29,000 engineers out of work.  At that peak, unemployment for electronics engineers was at 8.6% and software engineers at 5.7%.  It wasn’t supposed to be like that in the high tech field, but then refer back to what Scott McNealy pointed out above.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    - The next multikulti shoe drops
    - Obama’s socialist slip is showing

    Last year Germany’s Angela Merkel let the world know that decades of her country’s attempts to bend backwards to accommodate multi-culturalism (‘multikulti’ to the Europeans) was not working (here).  Specifically Germany was becoming home to hives of unassimilating Muslims living lives quite distinct from the remainder of the citizens in their host country.  This made some waves in the other European capitals as it should have since other EU nations were experiencing Germany’s plight (blight?).

    Here in the US, the lamestream media quickly buried the story in its vast graveyard of other politically incorrect reports of inconvenient happenings around the world.  Then David Cameron, British PM, declared at last week’s security conference in Munich that Britain’s multikulti policies toward its Muslim population has been an abject failure.  The more accommodating and bordering beyond silly the Brits have been toward their Muslims, the more anti-western has been their reaction.  They also have made it clear that they are settlers there to transform the country and not immigrants wanting to assimilate.  Mr Cameron cited the report from his country’s security services that there are now over 3,000 Al Qaeda operatives in Great Britain, most of them British subjects.

    One of the main discriminants between ethnic Muslims and, say, ethnic Jews is that Muslims go out of their way to retain and express their identity; they approach the established culture as Muslims, ‘peaceful Muslims’.  The Jews and Lutherans deal with the established culture as Brits or Americans – you have to do some digging to discover what is their religious bent.  This behavior continues to isolate the Muslim communities no matter how docile or militant they claim to be.

    And their militant factions visibly working for converting their host countries to sharia law under an Islamic Caliphate are more and more recognized as a “cancer growing in the west” as stated by syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer.  Unassimilated multikulti doesn’t work.  And citing the Ft Hood massacre, Senator Joe Lieberman added that in all this, "political correctness has a cost."

    [update]  Coincidentally the 9feb11 WSJ had two pieces on Cameron and multi-cultural failures here and here that tie with this post, with more from Australia here.  Also with regard to the otherwise moderate and peace loving Muslims, a correspondent sent a link to a story (here) that - in spite of the lamestream's efforts to suppress - is becoming all too common in western lands.

    [11feb2011 update]  French President Nicolas Sarkozy added his voice (here) to the conclusion that unassimilated multi-culturalism is a "failure" in France and other countries.  "Of course we must all respect differences, but we do not want… a society where communities coexist side by side."

    President Obama’s recent walk and talk to the US Chamber of Commerce was revealing.  No matter how nice he sought to make with the country’s business community, his true colors as a socialist flew bright and crisp.  In his speech he made clear that the improving economic conditions would allow companies to again become profitable.  But this time around he said that such “profits would have to be shared with the workers”; and presumably he’s just the President who would bring that about.  BTW, there was no mention of the workers also having to share the losses.

    And he didn’t stop there, but admonished the business people attending that the recovery put the onus on CEOs to maximize the number of American workers hired.  The meaning was clear, in his fundamentally transformed America the aim of businesses is to provide jobs first and foremost, rather than to provide goods or services to its customers at a profit.  In short, the Community Organizer in Chief displayed no understanding that maximizing the number of American workers hired and maximizing the likelihood for staying in business might be the two separate ends of a see-saw (more here).  These days the White House is filled to the gills with equally illumined worthies.  Remind me again of the President’s celebrated move toward the center since last November’s election.

  • George Rebane

    In the latest package of materials from the Mercatus Center of George Mason University there was an exhortation to today’s conservatives (the classical liberals) to man the intellectual ramparts against the onslaught of socialism.  Their opening argument was from a post-war essay by F.A. Hayek –

    We must make the building of a free society once more an intellectual adventure, a deed of courage … .  Unless we can make the philosophic foundations of a free society once more a living intellectual issue, and its implementation a task which challenges the ingenuity and imagination of our liveliest minds, the prospect of freedom are indeed dark.  But if we can regain that belief in the power of ideas… the battle is not lost.

    This was written in 1949, the same year Hayek wrote another influential essay ‘The Intellectuals and Socialism’.  In this piece Hayek identifies the intellectuals – being neither anchored in original thought nor practical experience – as the intermediaries between an esoteric social philosophy like socialism and its broad dissemination.  These “professional secondhand dealers in ideas” are positioned to the adulating masses as deep thinkers bringing down the wisdom of the ages from Olympus.  From this essay we read –

    In the light of recent history it is somewhat curious that this decisive power of the professional secondhand dealers in ideas should not yet be more generally recognized. The political development of the Western World during the last hundred years furnishes the clearest demonstration. Socialism has never and nowhere been at first a working-class movement. It is by no means an obvious remedy for the obvious evil which the interests of that class will necessarily demand. It is a construction of theorists, deriving from certain tendencies of abstract thought with which for a long time only the intellectuals were familiar; and it required long efforts by the intellectuals before the working classes could be persuaded to adopt it as their program.

    Having recently (re?)read this, I was struck by how timely its analysis still is after sixty years have passed.  And then it occurred to me that its currency might instead be cyclic.  Did we not go through a Cold War, that began in 1948, and which had convinced most Americans by the end of the 1950s that socialism was indeed the slippery slope to totalitarian communism?  By 1960s we all saw the hopeless morass that Britain and France had gotten themselves into through an overreach of government.  There were riots in the streets, and France was changing governments as often as people changed oil in their cars.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    [This cartoon by my friend, RR reader, political cartoonist RL ‘Bob’ Crabb appeared in the 5feb11 Union op-ed pages.  You might note that we don’t see eye-to-eye on everything.  Oh well.]

    RLCrabb110205 

    No matter the decades of leftwing legislative control that has brought California to its knees; it seems that as long as there remains a Republican in Sacrmaento, it is all their fault.

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