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  • George Rebane

    PostSingularity There was an interesting exchange on Ray Kurzweil’s website between Kurzweil and a reader with a “disturbing thought” about post-Sinularity trans-humans some day running out of ‘stuff’ on which to store their ever-expanding knowledge base and on which to do the ever more expansive ‘thinking’ that presumably we will then be able to do (here).

    The reader was concerned about a future gargantuan conflict as such beings competed for the limited matter/energy in the universe.  Their conversation wound up contemplating either our evolution into God(s), or the already achieved existence of God through such a process.

    Neither participant seemed to realize that the likelihood of all such scenarios is low because they depend on Homo Sapiens being the only sentient and sapient species in this universe.  Most of us studied in such conversations cannot conceive of the case in which we find ourselves alone.  And if we are not alone, then the probability that anything of such post-Singularity nature has already happened is close to unity – since if we are not alone, then we are also not in a privileged point in time, i.e. we are not the species in the forefront of any such development or evolution.

    It seems then that this argument fortifies the notion that, relative to Homo Sapiens, God already exists.  And it also then provides credence to the notion held by many leading scientists today that we may live – and all of our perceived existence is – in a running program.

    I’ll have more to say about this at a later time.  But in the interval, such reasoning threads should maximally disrupt the belief systems of calcified secular humanists – e.g. those who blindly insist that intelligent design has no provenance of its own and is merely a code word for creationism.

  • George Rebane

    From listening to all the talking heads this weekend going on about the $38.5B spending cuts in the FY2011 budget, we hear that both sides are taking full credit.  And both the Dems and Repubs have declared victory … but over what??

    It is clear that the tea parties are the only ones getting it.  Before Friday night’s compromise, Tea Party Patriot co-founder Mark Meckler was in the lion’s den on CNBC with a white-haired, fast-talking progressive loudmouth who kept interrupting Meckler while trying to get him to say something silly about various social issues involved with the proposed cuts.  Meckler wisely stuck to his guns stating that the TPP stood for fiscal responsibility, and was promoting the originally promised $100B spending cut in the budget for this year FY2011.  He emphasized that it was the amount that is important to us as a nation in the global community (a position long held in these pages).

    Other countries with whom we trade, borrow from, and convince to keep the dollar as the world’s reserve currency don’t give a rat’s butt where we reduce our spending to become fiscally responsible; they just want us to do it.  Actually, our enemies are siding with the Dems, and want the train wreck to happen sooner than later.  In any event, it is only the spending cut AMOUNTS that matter, and it is only the tea parties, led by the TPP, who started us on this responsible path that has now led to the Paul Ryan FY2012 budget proposal.  And it is only the tea parties that are still holding the politicians feet to the fire on an adult approach – cutting trillions in spending to reduce trillions in deficits – to a feasible fiscal soft landing.

    As a TPP member, I see no reason to dance in  the fly pucky and celebrate the smidgeon announced last Friday night.  IF IF IF that leads to a clear-headed approach needed to negotiate a meaningful basis for raising the debt limit in May, and then adopting a real FY2012 budget – a la the Ryan Plan – to demonstrate good faith, THEN maybe I’ll tap my toe quietly to the celebratory parade that everyone from Obama to Boehner to Reid is trying to lead.  But getting excited today is a mite early.  The sobering figure below explains.

    FiscalReality2011

    [update] And Ramirez is always able to summarize succinctly.

    FixDebtRamirez

  • George Rebane

    This was posted on 8 July 2008 by Bill Zettler (here and more here).  It is another of the ‘songs without words’ that are again reminding us of the rot which is even worse today.  But they do shine a light on how we got here.  (H/T to RR reader.  Click to enlarge table.)

    Top 100 School Administrators Salaries and Pensions – Illinois 2007

    Top100_2007 

  • George Rebane

    [This the submitted form of my Union column for April.  It was submitted on 7 April 2011, and could not reflect the yet another “short-term funding measure” agreement reached late Friday 8 April that averted government shutdown as reported here in the WSJ.]

    The GOP’s federal budget – ‘The Path to Prosperity’ – for FY2012 was authored by Rep Paul Ryan (R-WI) and fellow Republicans on the House Budget Committee, including our congressman Tom McClintock.  This landmark budget is the first having the necessary painful entitlement cuts, and presents a feasible plan to bring the country back from fiscal disaster.

    On the other hand, everything offered by the Democrats to date has been electioneering materials that pander to the ignorant and those of us receiving transfer payments – these include Democrats, Republicans, and the great uninvolved.

    The Congressional Budget Office says President Obama’s budget proposal contains spending, deficits, debt, and taxes headed to the moon before the decade is out.  Yet the Dems and friends are already banging out histrionics about the “heartless” GOP.  More confusing is that there are two fiscal issues before Congress – related but of entirely different scope.

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  • George Rebane

    The 2apr11 post – ‘Simon & Schuster’s Revenge’ – on American Thinker by Douglas Hackleman is a review of the recently published book Deconstructing Obama: The Life, Loves, and Letters of America's First Postmodern President by Jack Cashill.   The review is a worthy read and will serve for many of us as a compelling preamble to the book itself.

    Besides the many items about Barack (Barry) Obama that Cashill excavates and assembles for us, the author’s product is another massive indictment of the state of American journalism, a profession populated and defended primarily by the left.  Hackleman’s conclusion contains this –

    “Most unfortunately, the deconstruction of congenial myths is often received with the same enthusiasm as a stool specimen in the baptistery. While Jesus of the gospels said that the truth will set you free, one of his most poetically ardent defenders recognized that "nations grown corrupt" would rather take "bondage with ease than strenuous liberty." This fact is made obvious by the struthious apologetics that day by day through the popular media continue to anchor the myths of Dreams and Audacity.”

    Would that in 2008 more of us had known only a fraction of this.  (H/T to RR reader.)

  • George Rebane

    The House Budget Committee submitted the first federal budget in years to deal with our fiscal crisis.  Under the leadership of Rep Paul Ryan (R-WI) the submitted budget will now have to weather the storms of Democratic opposition, for these are the people who think that liabilities in the tens of trillions will be handled by grudging spending cuts in the tens of billions.  Nothing new here, math and economics have never been their strong suit.

    Our congressman Tom McClintock has thrown his support in for the GOP budget, and we’ll see how he and the other tea party supported Republicans will do when they run into heavy weather.  I have posted on this theme and its attendant continuing resolutions – one’s coming up this Friday – for some time now.  Ryan is the first national politician who has stepped out front with cuts totaling over $6 trillion in the next decade, and a path from here to a balanced budget in which we spend what we take in.  Well, not right away because initially we’ll still have to borrow to service the debt.  But the budget is the first to recognize that nothing happens without reducing the Big Three entitlements.

    The Democrats will have a field day convincing the ignorant and the stupid, nevertheless their constituencies must be served, even if all you can serve them is pabulum.

    For the full story on the FY2012 GOP budget proposal ‘The Path to Prosperity’ go to the source before you get underwhelmed by the lamestream – check the charts and graphs linked in the hard-to-see lime green band.  (H/T to Congressman McClintock’s office for the early email on this.)  This saga will be with us for some days yet; stay tuned.

    [6apr2011 update]  The battle to rescue the country is joined.  Over the years our European friends have told us that they see very little difference between our two major political parties.  That problem has faded over the last four years, and I sincerely hope that it will completely disappear as the battle lines on the FY2012 budget and its more important portents are drawn.

    Today the WSJ’s lead editorial essentially echoed the sentiments of this post and highlighted the significance of the first realistic budget as a stake in the ground marking responsible government and the distance we may/will stray from it in future negotiations with the country’s progressives.

    The nearby photo was filched from another article on Rep Ryan’s budget that appeared in the 6apr11 WSJ showing the House Budget Committee stalwarts who have worked hard to bring this budget into the national debate on our fiscal future.  Prominently shown to Rep Ryan’s right is an extremely serious looking Tom McClintock, our own congressman from California’s 4th District.  The work in the coming months for all these gentlemen is cut out, and they deserve the support of all Americans who don’t belong to the can kicking cadres.

    RyanMcClintock110405 

    This morning via email from Rep McClintock’s office I received the transcript of his work session remarks to the Budget Committee.  It is presented below in its entirety.

    Opening Statement
    House Budget Committee
    Markup of the 2012 Budget

    Mr. Chairman:

     History walks with us today as we begin this work.  History offers us not a single example of a nation that has ever spent, borrowed and taxed its way to prosperity, but it offers us many, many examples of nations that have spent, borrowed and taxed their way to economic ruin and bankruptcy.  And history is screaming this warning at us: nations that bankrupt themselves aren’t around very long, because before we can provide for the common defense and promote the general welfare, we have to be able to pay for it – and the ability of our nation to do so is now in grave danger.

     Throughout these hearings, economists from every part of the spectrum have warned us that if we have just a few precious years left to avoid a sovereign debt crisis and potentially the financial collapse of the United States Government.

     Fortunately, history also offers us lessons of what to do and what not to do.

     We know what not to do.  Herbert Hoover responded to the recession of 1929 by increasing federal spending by a staggering 60 percent in just four years.  He began by imposing the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act – a steep tax on some 20,000 imported products – and ended by boosting the Federal Income Tax from 23 to 65 percent.  Franklin Roosevelt amplified and expanded these policies and in 1939, the unemployment rate was just as high as when he started.  We had lost an entire decade.

     In 1945, Harry Truman abolished the excess profits tax.  He slashed federal income taxes. In 1946, Truman cut the federal budget from $85 billion down to $30 billion in a single year.  He fired ten million federal employees.  (It was called war demobilization).  The Keynesians at the time predicted 25 percent unemployment and a renewed depression.  Instead, his policies produced the post-war economic boom.

     We have more recent examples.  During his administration, Bill Clinton reduced federal spending by a miraculous four percent of GDP.  He dared to touch the third rail of entitlement spending and produced the most important and fundamental reform of the welfare state in our century.  He signed what amounted to the biggest capital gains tax cut in history on home appreciation.  He produced the only four budget surpluses in the last 40 years and a period of pronounced economic prosperity.

     True, George W. Bush reduced taxes but at the same time he recklessly increased federal spending – boosting it by 2 percent of GDP.  He re-introduced the discredited folly of stimulus spending.  He approved the biggest expansion of entitlement spending since the Great Society.  He produced massive budget deficits. If entitlement and stimulus programs, crushing deficits and massive spending increases were the road to prosperity, the Bush Administration should have produced a new Golden Age for the economy. 

     Let’s put partisanship aside today and concentrate on policy.  In the mid-1990’s, a Republican Congress and a Democratic President, following precisely the policies outlined in the measure before us today – balanced the budget, reformed entitlement spending, placed us on a path to pay off the entire national debt and produced a period of economic expansion and prosperity.   

     This budget turns us away from policies that we KNOW do not work toward policies that we KNOW do work.  It brings federal spending back under control, it puts Medicare and Medicaid on a sound financial foundation, it produces a million new private sector jobs next year through economic expansion and places our nation on a path so that when my children retire, the retirement systems they’ll have paid into all their lives will be safe and secure and their nation will be debt free and prosperous.

  • George Rebane

    Nevada County’s recently elected Supervisor Terry Lamphier published an extremely revealing, and therefore, welcome column last Saturday in the 2apr11 Union.  In that short piece (‘Re: It’s Time to Get Serious’, below in blue italics) he did an admirable job of telling readers his perceptions of our economy and understanding of American governance.

    Many would dismiss his words as just the disjointed ramblings of a lightly learned liberal.  Here we choose not to do that; instead we take Mr Lamphier at his considered word, and inform ourselves of this elected representative’s world view and beliefs.  These tenets are important for us to understand, since he and his intellectual peers may soon dominate county government, and take us all to where their lights will show the way.  Let’s look at this new shining.

    I agree with Sen. Doug LaMalfa's observation that “Americans are a can-do people.” Unfortunately, I disagree with him on just about everything else, everything else being rationalizations as to why, implied in essence, the business world is the superior role model for how we should live our lives. He is forwarding the conservative message that ‘society, and its representative, our government, should be subservient to economics and the private sector.'

    Right off the bat, Mr Lamphier posits that government should not be subservient to the principles of economics and the private sector – the fundamental credo of a socialist cum whatever stronger form of collectivism you care to insert.

    We are no longer talking about representative government — where we all have a say in what happens — when regular folks' voices are drowned out by a Wall Street government populated by those who perpetuate the migration of wealth into an ever smaller pool while systematically dismantling the very agency they were elected to work for and with.

    So governments that are subservient to principles of economics and the private sector do not belong to the class of representative forms of governance.  Our Founders would find this conclusion most remarkable and counter to their intended legacy to us.  Difficult to tell here how Mr Lamphier connects these two propositions, but connects them he does.  Onward.


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  • George Rebane

    Busy week ahead and spending cuts are on everyone’s mind these days.  Many Americans understand that our country’s fiscal course is taking us to a certified fundamental transformation – national ruin.  There are also a lot of people who see nothing of the sort happening, they believe the current debt and deficits are totally manageable.  We just need to increase taxes on corporations and the ‘rich’.

    Most Democrats in Washington don’t perceive any fiscal crisis that requires spending cuts of more than, say, forty or fifty billion dollars.  And enough Republicans seem to agree, if we just watch their walk and don’t pay much attention to their talk.  This talk admits a national debt and near-term obligations of over $50,000,000,000,000 (that’s fifty Trillion for short), and annual deficits way north of $1T.  Consequently the federal budget must suffer big cuts to the Big Three Entitlements – Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid.  Nicking a couple of billion here and there from discretionary spending will do nothing except buy near-term votes from the clueless.

    But the current Republican talk hints at a big secret deal in the works with the Dems, a deal that will really ‘make a difference’.  This pending agreement is what motivated enough Repubs – including our Congressman Tom McClintock – to kick the continuing resolutions can down the road a couple of weeks ago.  The next kick is scheduled for next Friday 8 April when another CR or something is needed since we have no federal budget for this year – the Dems decided to kick that garbage can down the road last October.  Now the real rubber meets the road in a month when the current national debt limit is reached, and we can no longer borrow from the Chinese and friends, or even the prescient bond giant PIMCO.

    Today the can-kicking Repubs are telling us that the debt limit is where they’ll draw the line and make their stand; be patient until then.  Our patience will be rewarded by the Repubs calling on a mysterious power that will make the Dems bow to massive spending cuts in the order of hundreds of billions.  We just have to wait for it, … and believe.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    [In response to KVMR’s listing of me as their 1apr11 news reporter, I recorded this little number for my regular commentary.  All of it survived to be aired except the last disclaimer.  The station’s news director felt strongly that the commentary was too realistic for a goodly portion of the listening audience, so I also recorded the more standard disclaimer that I normally use.  And that was substituted for the last paragraph.  Shucks.]

    This is George Rebane continuing with KVMR’s evening news.  Washington – after being pilloried for reporting that the Muslim Brotherhood was a secular and peaceful organization with no Islamist intentions, the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper returned to the Senate to confirm his earlier testimony.  A new report released by the CIA finds unequivocally that the Brotherhood is in fact a secular educational organization that has “eschewed violence” and whose connection to Islam is in name only.  Concurrently a State Department spokesman added that this organization has successfully applied for, and will now receive federal grants to conduct educational programs in all major federal detention facilities.

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  • George Rebane

    JapanTsunami_March2011 The latest global catastrophes – natural and manmade – again make us re-examine our ability to predict future events and what we are doing to improve those skills.  A current discussion of this is going on at Edge – The Third Culture.  Edge is one of those exclusive foundation think tanks for intellectuals from diverse backgrounds who are invited to come together and “arrive at the edge of the world’s knowledge, seek out the most complex and sophisticated minds, put them in a room together, and have them ask each other the questions they are asking themselves.”  There are some impressive names in their list of contributors.

    So a group of these folks were asked to consider prediction, and submit short essays summarizing their thoughts on the topic.  As a lifelong worker in this vineyard, I was interested to see who would be saying what about prediction.  My first amazement came when looking at the contributing ‘whos’.  The mix of people was eclectic and politically correct.  It included fine minds practicing physical oceanography, magazine editing, cultural anthropology, psychology, media analysis, science writing, sociology, chaos theory, and, yes, robotics.

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28 comments on Singularity Signposts – Running out of processing matter/energy?