George Rebane

Perhaps at no other time, save at the turn of an election year, are we exposed to so many predictions and prognostications about the future.  Unfortunately, for the careful listener these are for the most part useless noises that convey little information beyond confirming that the pundits believe that their interviewers and audiences are a bit thin between the ears.  And so the nonsense continues year after year because the pundits are right on both counts.

But if we do pay attention, we discover that the pundits’ predictions are almost always rhetorical tautologies (“… a series of statements that comprise an argument, whereby the statements are constructed in such a way that the truth of the proposition is guaranteed.” ) – ‘Sam will surely die in the coming year if a safe falls on his head before next New Year’s Eve.’

Watching such pundit programs, especially during this time of the year, I often fantasize about a reporter who could be found to conduct an interview along the lines that follow.

Reporter:  Welcome to the program Senator, as a prominent congressional leader, we’d like to hear your thoughts about the coming year.  Let’s start with the Iowa caucuses; who do you think is most likely to walk away as the winner?

Senator:  Well, that’s hard to say.  If candidate A does a good job convincing the undecided voters, and candidate B continues to sink in the polls, then I think that A has a good chance in taking Iowa.

Reporter:  With all due respect Senator, that statement didn’t tell us anything that we didn’t already know.  You gave us a rhetorical tautology – of course, garnering the undecides, while B’s popularity plummets, will make A the probable winner.  Your value on programs like this is to give us your considered opinions, and then share the considerations which persuade you.  Given your position in our country’s political leadership, I was hoping that our viewers would take away a bit more than that.

Senator:  That’s a pretty harsh comeback.  The Iowa caucuses are a complex political event, and it’s hard to be definitive about the result given the imponderables and the jockeying of all the candidates in the race.  I gave you my best answer.

Reporter:  Senator, I only asked you to be “definitive” about your assessment of who the most likely winner will be.  If to you all the candidates look pretty much equally likely to win, then we can take your answer as an ‘I don’t know’ and move on.  What do you think the chances are that Israel will launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities this year?

Senator:  The Middle East is a very complex geo-political environment with many players and many conflicting national interests.  There are several contingencies that will make Israel’s attack on Iran more likely.  Say, if Iran demonstrates that it has a nuclear weapon by conducting a successful underground test, and at the same time our administration remains firm that another round of sanctions will convince the Iranians to dismantle their nuclear weapons program; then I believe the chances will increase measurably that Israel will seriously consider a pre-emptive attack.

Reporter:  Senator, to quote a famous man, ‘there you go again’.  You have once more labored the obvious and totally sidestepped my question.  Given all the information to which you are privy, I asked you about the chances of Israel’s attack.  The answer that we were looking for was preferably something such as a statement of odds like ‘one out of ten’, or at least an adjectival assessment like ‘very probable’ or ‘not likely at all’.  You instead delivered another rhetorical tautology, and concluded it with a totally useless ‘serious consideration of an attack’ by Israel.  Sir, your answer could not have been more uninformative.  In any event, thank you for taking the time to be with us today.

With this I wish all RR readers a year of minimal exposure to rhetorical tautologies and other bamboozles purposely disguised to pass for information.

[PS. Martin Light retires as CABPRO's Exec Dir to be replaced by Todd Juvinall.  Announcement here.]