Rebane's Ruminations
November 2026
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  • George Rebane

    JimLehrerFor several decades I have been a fan of PBS liberal journalist Jim Lehrer.  He is one of the few remaining professionals in that industry.  Last Wednesday he committed an unforgivable error.

    Mr Lehrer has long been a national icon of the broadcast industry, the former Marine having made his bones on the legendary McNeil/Lehrer Report years ago.  By invitation of the Democratic leadership, he has been the voice of even-handed gravitas as moderator of nationally televised political debates.  It has been hard for conservatives to find fault with his command of the jousting events we all enjoy.

    That all came to an end in the first presidential debate this year when he allowed both candidates to have their head, and let the country see what was the essence of each when not speaking to a controlled audience or spouting a set piece from the teleprompters.  President Obama showed his true colors, and Jim Lehrer just let him swing in the wind.  That was a no-no, and an abrogation of unspoken responsibility.

    So this commentator now predicts that Mr Lehrer will never again be invited by the Left as their choice to moderate a significant nationally televised debate.  And discounting the off chance that conservatives would make him their choice in some future debate, after all he is 78, the 3oct12 presidential debate was his signature swansong.  His legacy is that he unabashedly let the country see both candidates in their full glory.  Semper fi Jim.

  • George Rebane

    Today we observe Cristofo’s grand achievement in 1492 that started the European conquest of the Americas – the Vikings blew their attempt about 500 years earlier.  This national holiday is specifically eschewed in Hawaii, Nevada, and, of course, California.  Nevertheless, I was reminded by a reader that RR would be remiss in not taking note of this auspicious beginning.

    Actually, on this day I want to commend Queen Isabella of Spain for launching the three ships.  It was her investment that made the Italian’s trip possible, being the first among his countrymen to arrive in this hemisphere ‘without papers’, thereby establishing the denigrating ethnic label to a generation and more Italians who followed him 400 years later.  But that’s another story.

    Here I wish to draw your attention to one of the most momentous of all government investments – and it truly was an investment, totally unlike the spending programs of today – to find a shorter route to India, since Portugal ruled the long route around Africa to trade with that fabled land.

    ToscanelliMap
    So anyway, Columbus sailed bravely onto an ocean that many thought would come to an abrupt end at the edge of the world as depicted in many woodcuts of the time.  After a long voyage he blundered into a new hemisphere instead, while still believing that he had landed on some outer archipelago of Asia.  But then who knew.  The map he got from his subscription to the National Geographic of the day was drawn by some clown named Toscanelli who should have opened a restaurant instead.

    Later voyages by true Spaniards – they got the WOP out of the way, and even prosecuted him for some financial shenanigans – confirmed that this was a new world, and that it contained riches beyond their wildest dreams as soon as they could get rid of some pesky Indians.

    After the peskier Indians were dispatched, the remainder were put to work digging out and hauling in unimaginable amounts of gold that was then shipped off to Spain.  Some of it got nailed by hurricanes and pirates, which again is another story.  But here I’d like emphasize what the Spanish government did with their windfall.

    The first thing they did was to establish a behavior that has come to be known as ‘spending money like drunken sailors’, which is exactly what they did for the next three centuries.  (This part of California’s Spanish heritage is still practiced in Sacramento.)   Who needed to work when all that gold was coming in?  It was all eat, drink, and make Mary, or merry, or was it war?  The bottom line is that like all governments, Spain spent itself silly for 300 years until the gold shipments stopped, mostly through the efforts of Spain’s European neighbors like the French and the English, whom the profligate Spaniards had managed to piss off to a fair thee well with successive attacks, wars, and other sundry intrigues.

    In the 19th century Spain was broke, and through revolution and competitive imperialism it managed to lose all the possessions in the New World it had discovered.  America, flexing newly found international muscles, put a bow on the whole sordid affair in 1898 with the foisted Spanish-American War in which Spain lost its remaining overseas possessions – we got Cuba and the Philippines, and some other sundry real estate.  And Spain was reduced to making sangria for tourists, and muttering something about their shoulda, coulda, wouldas.

    By the way, Spain learned nothing from its centuries long government spending.  In the 20th century Spaniards gave various forms of socialism a try, settling finally on what we today know as the European model.  This got them into policies that called for even more ‘investments’ in things like green energy, public employee pensions, 25% unemployment, and a national debt up to their collective interglutial cleft.

    So happy Columbus Day, and the next time you hear someone from Washington talk about government investments, consider the sad tale of España. Ole!

  • George Rebane

    The Left and their supporters deny the existence of UN's Agenda21 and their part in promoting its precepts.  That's to be expected of global collectivists to whom local control is anathema.  What is more insiduous is when such precepts under the "sustainable development" banner of the ICLEIs – the regional and local Agenda21 implementing organization – are promoted by local leaders not formerly known for their left leanings.  These people will only acknowledge that Agenda21 is a problem when someone called the Regional Commissar of Communities comes into town riding behind the local ICLEI marching band.  (See also Russ Steele's 'Agenda 21 Comes a Creeping'.)

    If it walks like Agenda21, quacks like Agenda21, then guess what? it doesn't need an Agenda21 banner.  I got the following email from CABPRO's Chuck Shea today.


    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    [Administrivia – ‘Ruminations’ postings will now be labeled by the interval from which they draw their items instead of sporting an ‘Updated xx’.  The subsequent addenda will include content annotated with the date of their appearance.  Hope this makes it easier to peruse.]

    To the astute observer of the political scene, the real news of yesterday’s announcement of the unemployment rate’s drop from 8.1 to 7.8% was the overwhelming surprise that this event caused for the usual gang of national analysts and economists – you know, the gang that can never shoot straight.

    HelicopterBenThe problem here is that the unemployment figure is cobbled together from an ad hoc algorithm that is manipulable to satisfy the vagaries of its manufacturers, and therefore beyond reasonable defense.  Not even the pros who follow these shenanigans 24/7 can make heads or tails of it, so they are constantly ‘surprised’.  But being in the business of economics and public policy, they are totally insulated from the shame of poor performance that is part and parcel of most other professions – law, politics, and journalism being the most obvious exceptions.  It turns out that the published unemployment number is the offspring of political parents, and therefore boasts all the reliability of a political statement.

    The more reliable and less publicized fraction of people un(der)employed stayed the same at 14.7%.  But the numerate reader will focus on the fact that the economy needs to create at least 200,000 jobs per month to keep up with workforce growth.  It if doesn’t, the number of unemployed seeking a job increases, and so should the unemployment rate.  The rest is bullcrap.

    Another telltale of this sordid reportage is Bernanke’s QE3, his current $40B/month printing frenzy is unfazed by the la-la land unemployment rate.  If the announced reduction had any basis in reality, then QE3 was grossly mistimed and should be stopped immediately.  But ol’ Ben Shalom will do no such thing simply because he’s in a position to look behind the curtain and see the empty chair.   The presses will keep rolling.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    In presidential debates I haven’t seen a better performance than Romney’s since Reagan took the stage in the 1980s.  While everyone and their brother is publishing voter sentiments on the debate, Gallup is strangely silent.  It’s as if the debate never happened when you look at their website.  I was hoping to use their poll to adjudicate a prediction competition (see ‘Prognosticators – An invitation to the dance’). The clearest voter sentiment poll comes from CNN with 67% saying Romney won, and 25% saying Obama won last night’s debate.

    (more…)

  • George Rebane

    That is the title of a piece by Stanislav Mishin which appeared in the 27apr09 issue of Pravda, a few months after Obama’s inauguration.  It was then already clear to many of us in the US and also around the world that our new communist-nurtured president had every intention of fulfilling his promise to “fundamentally transform” America.  The ensuing years have borne out our predictions and apprehensions.  Nevertheless, our country’s electorate has a large and terminally mush-minded contingent that may well return Obama to the Oval Office for the final touches of his ambitious agenda.

    In this context I want to reprise the piece by Mishin who is a correspondent and observer of world affairs uniquely qualified to interpret the arrival of collectivism in whatever form it takes – socialism, communism, Marxism, or even obamunism.  His essay starts with –
     
    It must be said, that like the breaking of a great dam, the American decent into Marxism is happening with breath taking speed, against the back drop of a passive, hapless sheeple, excuse me dear reader, I meant people.
     
    True, the situation has been well prepared on and off for the past century, especially the past twenty years. The initial testing grounds was conducted upon our Holy Russia and a bloody test it was. But we Russians would not just roll over and give up our freedoms and our souls, no matter how much money Wall Street poured into the fists of the Marxists.
     
    Those lessons were taken and used to properly prepare the American populace for the surrender of their freedoms and souls, to the whims of their elites and betters.
     
    First, the population was dumbed down through a politicized and substandard education system based on pop culture, rather than the classics. Americans know more about their favorite TV dramas than the drama in DC that directly affects their lives. They care more for their "right" to choke down a McDonalds burger or a BurgerKing burger than for their constitutional rights. …

    The entire piece may be read here, and with the understanding that it was published under the graces of the autocratic Putin/Medvedev regime in Russia.  The historical nuances make that clear.  Mishin writes about his social beliefs here.  

  • George Rebane

    For robust and reliable operation, both natural and man-made systems use feedback – monitoring output to determine how to control the system.  Open-loop systems – those not using feedback – are not very common in either nature or in the affairs of man.  The one common exception in the latter being governments which are designed to run without regard to the effect of their actions.

    BureaucratFacelessGovernment agencies’ harm is limited only by restraining their budgets and minimizing their headcounts.  When these bodies are well funded and amply staffed, they ALWAYS run amuck harming all within their reach.  Exhibit A at the fed level is the EPA, but there are dozens more incompetent that are doing their best to demonstrate their relevance by destroying our common weal.  At the states level, few can compete with the California Air Resources Board for unprofessionalism, inefficiency, and utter incompetency.

    This morning’s dose of NPR included a report on the implementation of the carbon credit auction called for by AB32 (q.v.) and administered under the watchful eye of CARB, the runaway candidate for the most destructive arm of California’s government.  Carbon credits must now be bought by businesses that emit carbon into the atmosphere.  The state’s Legislative Analyst Office agrees that it will be an additional tax on businesses, and that, yes, its cost will be passed on to the consumer who will respond by buying similar products from out-of-state producers.  It’s ONLY effect will be to drive more business out of California.

    Business groups are appealing to CARB that these carbon credits should be transferred freely between businesses instead of adding to their cost of operations.  In that manner this ‘cap and trade’ policy would still have whatever beneficial effects CARB claims.  But CARB is dead set against that as one of its resident idiots explained this morning, that “then it would be like giving them windfall profits.”  What??!!

    That kind of thinking is vintage socialist bureaucracy on display, and imbued through every fiber of today’s progressive governments in America.  Not imposing a new tax that serves only to hinder business and wealth creation is called the granting of windfall profits, again says it all.  It’s all the government’s money – “you didn’t build that” – and we let you keep some of it for a while at our pleasure.

    Such is the output of our public schooled and purposely dumbed down electorate that has no idea of what it votes for election after election.

  • George Rebane

    We add solyndra and solyndrize to the RR G&S lexicon.  Both in lower case, the first is a noun, the second a verb.  Other forms of modifiers like ‘solyndrizable’ will be readily formed and used as needed.  A solyndra is a government picked and supported enterprise foisted on the taxpayer as a private corporation/institution that has no ability to survive or succeed in the marketplace on its own.  One can also consider it as an entrepreneurial façade using taxpayers’ money in the attempt to bolster a misguided government policy.  To solyndrize a company is to select it for the infusion of government monies and other regulatory protections so as to shield it from the realities of the marketplace.  A natural extension here is ‘solyndricide’, the final failure of a solyndricized organization which is usually brought about by the government’s cutting off the solyndra’s financial transfusions.

    Polls and margins of error are much in the news today.  A little calculator work shows that the vaunted Real Clear Politics average of polls is just that, the arithmetic average – add all the poll results together and divide by the number of polls in the average.  This is a severely crude and often misinformative attempt to derive information from the blizzard of pre-election polls that are cited to support all kinds of arguments by commentators and media talking heads.

    A more professional approach to the estimation of current sentiment across a population of polls would take into account the attributes of each poll, and include them in the weighting of the poll’s result.  Such attributes include its variance (margin of error), time late, and validity instant that contribute to each poll’s reliability and timeliness.  Sample sizes matter, and public opinion is a volatile commodity that quickly decorrelates.  I’ll have more to say about it in a post that will present the correct way to aggregate and produce information from a set of polls.  And I’d appreciate getting pointed to a site from which I can download such data as sample size, and the interval over which the questionnaire was administered.  Thanks in advance.

    Central banks are buying gold by the tons, none of them care about price.  Now that everyone in the world that can print fiat money is printing it – e.g. the Bernank’s QE3 of $40B/month forever – we get updated on what the world’s monetary experts really think about “that ancient relic”.  Central banks used to pooh-pooh the metal and keep their reserves in a trusted ‘reserve currency’ like US dollars.  This is going by the board as the European Central Bank, Russia, China, India, …, and the United States are hauling in tons of the stuff from the world’s mines.  Each has added large percentages to their already quietly accumulated hoards, and the beat goes on.  It’s as if they think that the stuff they’re printing won’t be worth much in the future.

    A Pennsylvania judge has blocked the application of the state’s new voter ID law for the upcoming election.  The consistency of the rationale here is simply amazing.  The most important and sacrosanct act by a citizen of a liberal democracy is relegated to the level of kindergartner’s belief in Santa Claus.  Photo ID’s are required for every conceivable transaction in our land – you can’t pass gas on a subway without a photo ID; well maybe – but walk into a polling station and you can register to vote right then and there, and vote.  All you have to do is lie that you’re a citizen, and give them your driver’s license or state ID number (or even SS number). Both of these have your picture, and all can be had without proving US citizenship.  The Nevada County Registrar of Voters Office informed me that under Secs 2111 and 2112 of the Elections Code, the registrant’s statement that s/he is a US citizen is deemed to be a sufficient affidavit and proof of citizenship under penalty of perjury – no further verification by the state is required or performed.

    ‘Ragheads’ and/or ‘Savages’??  Seems that finding the appropriate pejorative label to tag Islamic terrorists is an undertaking that has a broader scope than that in these pages.  “In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man.  Support Israel.  Defeat Jihad.” read an ad in the New York subway stations.  Well, that got the leftwing’s undies in a bundle.  Referring to the ragheads (q.v.) as savages was considered “hateful”, “hate speech”, “racist”, … (you know the drill).  Putting together ‘savage’, ‘jihad’, and the implications of Islamic involvement (ya think?) was apparently beyond the pale.  I don’t know; looking at the formal definitions of ‘savage’, you could have a good quibble with each of them as applied to ragheads, which I think is a pejorative much more semantically precise.  Oh well, we continue the search.

    Dr Thomas Sowell on Obama.  The renowned academic and good professor has a very revealing interview with a colleague at the Hoover Institution.  (See ‘Tax Cuts and Obama’s Myth of Trickle Down Economics’, worth watching.)  One of the Bush2 myths that he demolishes is by describing the roots of the subprime mortgage explosion that run deep into Clinton’s administration which pushed banks to make these loans by guaranteeing that the government would cover defaults.  We all recall the Democrats following ol’ Barney’s willingness to “roll the dice on Fannie and Freddie.”  Win some, lose some.

    What do debates reveal?  Joseph Epstein agrees (here) with my long held belief that candidate debates – especially the presidential kind – are mainly circus and don’t reveal anything much about the qualities of the candidate that make for a good President.  One of the many foibles that debates emphasize is the quickness of response – and better if it is a deep slicing one liner – that “has nothing to do with genuine thought, which requires brooding over a subject, laboriously working through its complications.”  In sum, the silver-tongued devil is a shoo-in for winning the debate, his other presidential qualifications are optional.

  • George Rebane

    The post ‘Prognositcators – An invitation to the dance’ introduced a methodology for scoring quantitative predictions so that our prognosticators may compete on record, and donate their losings to the 501c3 ‘charity’ of the winner’s choice.

    ElectoralVotes2012
    This is the second competition in which our sharp-minded readership is asked to predict the outcome of the electoral college vote (538 total votes, 270 to win).  This competition will be repeated weekly – every Monday – until the election, with the last one run on Monday 5 November.  Prognosticators are asked to submit their electoral college vote ranges for the candidates of their choosing.  If a single number of votes is submitted for any of the candidates, that will be taken as a ‘zero range’ or ‘spot on’ prediction and scored accordingly.  The cost of entry each time will be $20.

    The entries must be submitted (by the Typepad date/time stamp) before Monday midnight PST.  This first competition will be closed tomorrow Tuesday midnight PST, since I just had this harebrained idea late on Monday night.  I will post the final entries at the closing of each competition, and winners and losers of each of these six competitions on 7 November 2012.

    It will be interesting to see the weekly prognostications shift and narrow (or widen) as we go through this last month of debates and campaigning.  An added bit of titillation will accrue from someone like the victory of Mr Steven Frisch that impels me to send a check to one of his favorite progressive charities, and vice versa.

  • George Rebane

    One wonders if western progressives will ever come to understand Islam and its impact on people who hold it dearest in their hearts.  I don’t think so, since they have invested too much of their intellectual capital in their home countries as apologists for that religion.  After all, Islam is the most available tool to create the required disorder and chaos in the liberal democracies of the west in order to prepare them for the new world order.  (In the United States, the current path to that future is obamunism.)

    Associated Press reports from COX'S BAZAR, Bangladesh, “Thousands of Bangladeshi Muslims angry over an alleged derogatory photo of the Islamic holy book Quran on Facebook set fires in at least 10 Buddhist temples and 40 homes near the southern border with Myanmar, authorities said Sunday.”

    The beat goes on.

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