Rebane's Ruminations
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  • George Rebane

    All good things must come to an end, and the addition of some new responsibilities required me to drop something.  On 4 December 2012 I sent the following email – titled ‘Rebane’s column, -86-‘  -  to The Union’s publisher and managing editor.  I appreciated their cordial replies, and now look forward to being an Other Voice sans deadlines.

    Dear People – Due to other mounting commitments, my run as a regular columnist for The Union must now end.  On reflection, I should have withdrawn immediately after the management changeover earlier this year so that you could better remake the paper in its new image, and not have to deal with clinging barnacles from the past.  From time to time I will continue to submit Other Voices articles which you may publish at your pleasure.  Thank you for having allowed me to share my views with your readership.

  • George Rebane

    Remember the ladies from Detroit who loved President Obama’s “stash” but had no idea where it came from.  Well, it’s almost four years later, and one of them seems now to be on the Detroit City Council.  As readers know, Detroit is on its collective ass and getting ready for a little bit of Chapter 9 bankruptcy filing, and the lady is maximally irritated.  It seems that they have sent their paid lobbyists to Washington to tell Obama that ‘we voted for you, and now we want to be paid.’  What she’s actually asking for is some “bacon” from the stash that the city now richly deserves.  Obama seems to be filching on his promise.

    And then there’s Great Britain equally sliding into fiscal oblivion on its derriere (can’t use ass twice in the same post).  Prime Minister Cameron is rallying the Brits to demand that companies operating on the island pay more taxes than they need to on (wait for it) “moral grounds”.  Sticking a mike into the face of a typical citizen, and you hear that corporations like Starbucks and Amazon are “immorally minimizing their taxes” by following the applicable EU tax laws.  Sadly, such is the damage that socialism does to an otherwise healthy brain.

    Coming back to our side for a peek at the growing imperial presidency, we see a President, with bulging veins in his temple, tell the country that “I will not play that game (of joining debt limit and budget negotiations) any more.”   No one has yet been smart enough to tell him that 1) the Constitution gives him no power to reject political deals like that, and 2) it is most proper to join debt limits and budget negotiations since they both deal with and are intimately related to our run away deficits and the real fiscal cliff, which is the soaring national debt whose service costs will swamp future federal budgets.   Is he acting dumb on purpose or just letting the rest of us know that his voters are too dumb to understand this demagoguery?   (No need to answer this.)

  • George Rebane

    ObamaSocialismTwo intellectuals and students of the human condition – Harvard’s Harvey Mansfield and Yale’s Charles Hill – lend their considerable weight to the notion that we are beyond the tipping point to the promised “fundamental transformation” of America.  By all accounts we have now failed the Grand Experiment envisioned by the Founders to answer the question of the ages – Can man govern himself?  While the answer to that question is never final because the experiment is ever ongoing, they did provide us a magnificent tool to keep bringing back a ‘YES’ answer.  It’s called the Constitution.  Professor Mansfield tells us (‘The Crisis of American Self-Government’) that “the founders wanted people to live under the Constitution.  But the progressives want the Constitution to live under the American people.”

    Along this line Professor Hill talks about the American decline (‘World Order in the Age of Obama’) and says –

    And there now grows a deepening appetite for gain. America, perceived as eager to shed the burdens of world order in order to be “fundamentally transformed” through European-style social commitments, talks of engagement even when Iran’s “diplomacy” is a form of protracted warfare. The enemies of world order translate the American election results into the lexicon of abdication, telling themselves that their time has come: there is a world to be gained.  Only America’s return to world leadership can halt this deterioration. “Sequestration” will relegate the U.S. to a second rate power and must be reversed to enable American strength and diplomacy to be employed in tandem.

    RR readers know that one of the more successful Rebane Rules, long argued here, is ‘The most reliable predictor of progressives’ policies is the their common aim of weakening America’s influence on the world stage by removing all vestiges of the country’s exceptionalism.’  The reliability of this rule is doubled when used to predict which turns Team Obama will take in navigating the ship of state (see also ‘Obamunism’ in Glossary).

    The uses of America’s energy abundance.  In the same vein, there is a growing corpus of belief that America’s newly found gas and shale oil energy reserves will not be used to launch a new era of growth and prosperity for the country.  Instead the wealth from those resources will be commandeered by the federal government under new powers that it will discover and relegate to itself.  The entire scenario starts with President Obama having emerged from a second term victory to steer the country into a (hard to imagine) deeper fiscal thicket, whether by a rapid tumble over the approaching fiscal cliff, an extended version thereof, or a more torturous way.

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  • George Rebane

    DiminishingReturnsAnother large impediment to making progress when attempting to reason with progressives is that their world lacks the reality of diminishing returns that accrue when any enterprise is taken past its optimum operating point, let alone being taken to an extreme.  Most certainly the concept is no longer taught in schools as a short conversation with the public educated teenager of your choice will reveal.

    This seminal truth about the liberal mind again displayed itself in recent debates on these pages that concern the looming fiscal cliff and bringing socialized healthcare to America.  Preceding these issues has been the already decades long imperative to make our country insanely safe and risk free.  Consumer advocacy groups, manned almost wholly by leftists, scream bloody murder when the next kid is injured, sickened, or killed on a playground or from his (usually) unusual use of a plaything.

    Simple back of the envelope calculations (an inaccessible feat in this land) will quickly show that the rate or probability of occurrence of almost all such incidents is vanishingly small, but that makes no nevermind to the liberal brain.  The clinching argument for overreaction is – ‘But what if s/he were your child?’  When presented as response, that clinching question is sure to draw a bevy of self-satisfied nods from a chorus of the like-minded.  To liberal minds it appears that social policies are immune to the law of diminishing returns.

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  • George Rebane

    Now how do I pull all those together into one cohesive topic?  Two former congressmen, Chris Cox and Bill Archer, just informed the country of our real debt problem, ‘Why $16T Only Hints at the True US Debt’ – something of which you fortunate RR readers were apprised of years ago.  It’s more than worth a read since you have to hear from someone besides moi.  The punch line of that piece is, “Hiding the government’s liabilities from the public makes it seem that we can tax our way out of mounting deficits.  We can’t.”

    FiscalCliff
    This truth has been and continues to be most successfully hidden from our progressives and those just plain stupid.  The ONLY legitimate way out of our mounting deficits is to set the stage for historically unprecedented GDP growth levels.  And all that invokes today is visions of a snowball’s chance in hell.

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  • George Rebane

    Well, it won’t be long now.  On 1 January 2013 most people’s taxes will skyrocket, unless you’re one of the gimmes.  The tax increases have one common denominator, they will bring our still anemic GDP growth to a halt and reverse it, while at the same time increasing unemployment by at least 50%.  National commentators are now jumping on the bandwagon and trumpeting the strong likelihood of a recession/depression that RR readers have known about for years.

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  • The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names. Chinese proverb

    George Rebane

    This important topic was resurrected in a comment thread under ‘Happy Thanksgiving – 2012’.  Two readers voiced strong opinions (one with cited evidence) that our freedoms have increased.  One reader disputed that, and I join in that dispute.  I believe evidence abounds that will support the case that we are less free today than we were fifty years ago.  However, the issue has complexities that compel exploration as our governments’ scope and reach continues to grow, and doubly so given the consequences of the last two national elections that are propelling us toward autocratic collectivism (redundancy intended) at an ever faster pace.

    First of all, freedom has more than one dimension, made up of more than one factor, or what is technically known as being composed of multiple attributes.  For example, under one form of governance we can be totally free to have sex with chickens at public gatherings, but not free to select and place ceiling lights in our new kitchen.  There are behaviors and things I may want to do to express my understanding of individual freedoms, things which may be of no interest or import to you, and vice versa.  The point here is that different people, maybe based on their education, culture, life experiences, etc will measure freedom and personal liberty quite differently.

    There is no absolute measure of freedom.  The closest social organization that attempts to define a broadly accepted and ubiquitous environment for liberty is the US Constitution.  But even before it began to be amended, the Founders admonished us with caveats as to what kind of populace the document would successfully serve.  Time has proved them to have been right.

    The problem, of course, arises when such people with disparate views and beliefs are forced to live cheek-by-jowl, and worse, if one cohort wants and is able to proscribe what is dear to the other.

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  • George Rebane

    [This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary that was broadcast on 23 November 2012.]

    Listeners to these commentaries have rightfully come to expect the discussion of important national, international, and even cosmological issues.  This evening I wish to reduce considerably the scope of such perspectives, and focus on what should become the next little dust devil down our main street to catch some well-deserved attention.  It involves the tax increase that our Nevada County Consolidated Fire District convinced us to approve last March.  The matters of fact in the following tirade come from the lead story (paywalled) in last Tuesday’s (20nov12) edition of The Union.

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  • George Rebane

    Today our beloved country has an even rougher road ahead as recent events have now confirmed.  Yet, we still live in a land where possibilities for a better tomorrow abound because not all of us have begun looking for other pockets from which to line our own.  That is the real hope that remains for our land, and for which we can be thankful.  Worth a thought or two as we sit down today.  Happy Thanksgiving.

    Thanksgiving

  • George Rebane

    A few days ago IBM published a very short paper titled simply 1014.  It summarized the first successful testing of TrueNorth, IBM’s cognitive computing testbed funded under DARPA’s SyNAPSE.  That program “calls for developing electronic neuromorphic (brain-simulation) machine technology that scales to biological levels, using a cognitive computing architecture with 1010 neurons (10 billion) and 1014 synapses (100 trillion, based on estimates of the number of synapses in the human brain) to develop electronic neuromorphic machine technology that scales to biological levels.”

    It so happens that the human brain contains about 1010 neurons and 1014 synapses in a system of relatively few highly organized and repetitive pattern recognition structures arranged into hierarchies.  This is a major advance in the current fanout of intelligent machines that seek to replicate the functioning of the human brain.  Right now TrueNorth runs only about a 1,500 times slower than the human brain.  But that will soon change.

    I am currently in the middle of Ray Kurzweil’s How to Create a Mind (just published) wherein he goes into great detail on the type of structure and capabilities of a neuromorphic machine like TrueNorth.  Therefore I was happy to see this concurrent announcement of the next step toward Singularity from IBM, the company that also brought us Watson (here) and is now marketing that into several application areas beginning with medicine.

    These advances need to be viewed in the context of today’s accelerating technology, and its disturbing impact on the workforces of developed countries (more here).  Their greater effect on humanity is already very difficult to predict beyond giving rise to the obvious redundancies of mediocre human talents.

14 comments on Administrivia – taking leave of The Union