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  • George Rebane

    Yesterday we returned from a couple of weeks in Europe with friends visiting Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary.  Somewhere I picked up massive cold augmented by the Hungarian Hack that I brought home on a miserable return from Budapest to SFO in three draining hops.  Air travel (we traveled first and biz class) has lost all of its glory and glamour, and for some years now has been Greyhound with wings.  I’ll have more to say in upcoming posts what we saw in the capitals and country sides of those countries.

    An example of the power of unions to put a business on its knees was evident in our last leg from O’Hare to SFO on AA.  It seems that the co-pilot spilled hot coffee all over his right hand seat and then refused to fly until they replaced the cushion with a dry one.  What happened over the next two hours is too painful to recount in detail.  The captain was helpless and kept feeding the fuming passengers pabulum for two hours while we were parked at the gate; he mainly asked that we wouldn’t take it out on the cabin crew.  Finally people who would miss their SFO connections started exiting the plane (leaving their luggage behind) as AA mechanics were desperately searching for a spare 737 cushion at one the world’s largest airports.  A painfully obese mechanic kept bringing cushions that for one reason or another weren’t exactly kosher, and had a hell of time fitting into the cockpit in his attempt to try them out in situ.  Long story short, we arrived in SFO 2.5 hours late, and then there was a mix-up in getting our bags to the terminal – don’t ask.  Finally, acknowledging the concerns of the sumbich who didn’t want to sit on a plastic bag, the first class seats in the plane were as old as the airframe and all sat out.  It felt like sitting in a chair whose front legs were two inches shorter than the back ones.  And there’s more …

    NPR reported this morning that Sacramento will expand Medicaid coverage to illegal aliens in 35 more counties to that “more Californians can receive healthcare.”  It appears that butt stupid liberal thought has been picking up steam in our absence.  When was the last time that you could illegally enter Mexico and then be referred to as being Mexicans by the Mexican government?

    Europeans are so frustrated with their governments that populism is now rampant – witness yesterday’s Austrian election.  The ‘Socialist dream’ of that continent has foundered by every measureable (more later) with their unemployable populations burgeoning while the producers are told that taxes and regulations will be increased to more evenly divide what’s left.  Young people, dismally ignorant and with no visible prospects, are wandering around the Schengen countries supposedly looking for work or bigger handouts.  Meanwhile our lamestream continues to promote the National Lie that everything there is hunky-dory and we need to be more like them.  What you see in the capitals is not what you see in the countryside.

    Finally, apologies for letting the last sandbox continue for so long.  My cold, connectivity, and a demanding cruise schedule left the happy hour as the only slack in the day, and I didn’t think anyone would dun me for setting properly setting my priorities.

    [24may16 update]  Heard on NPR this morning that TSA security administrator Kelly Hogan was “removed” from his job due to long security lines across the nation and especially at O’Hare where we witnessed them last Saturday.  The interview with SecHSA Jah Johnson this morning was the usual mealy mouthed cover up of gross incompetence.  The firing was doubly embarrassing because Hogan had received over $90K of bonuses for outstanding performance over the last year when in fact none was in evidence.  This again confirms that there is literally NOTHING that government does well, and most certainly not better than what private (non-corporatist) industry can do.  Of course none of this makes no never mind to our big government liberal readers.  (more here)

    [25may16 update]  Socialist thugs rioted at a Trump rally last night in Albuquerque in the attempt to stop the candidate from speaking.  Waving banners like “We’ve heard enough”, throwing stones and burning objects at police, the leftwing crowd put on what has become a typical response across the nation to speakers they oppose either on or off campuses.  As reported by Associated Press (here) their biggest burr was Trump’s initiatives to stop the illegal entry across our borders and succor illegal aliens in our midst.  Evaluating her walk vs talk, even New Mexico’s Republican (sic) governor Susana Martinez supports easy access to our land and largesse by illegals.  Now we will again hear that the Left really does support free speech.

    And regarding that great socialist idea of a high minimum wage, a correspondent sends this corporate decision from MacDonald’s as a response to hiring humans at such butt stupid wages.  The question stands – are the socialist elites evil or just stupid like their constituents?

    [26may16 update] Mexicans protesting at Trump rally in California.  This photograph from the 26may16 WSJ puts into sharp focus the real agenda of those who oppose the construction and maintenance of secure borders for America.

    AtCAtrumpRally

    [27may16 update]  For joy, in education today’s “most important news is that voucher students show ‘statistically significant’ improvement in math and reading test scores.”  The lying Left will continue to tell its low-info constituents that no such thing is possible – government-designated, union-operated schools are just as good or better than any alternatives, and can be improved even more by pouring in more money. (more here)

     

  • [Time for a new sandbox for the weekend. The old one required too much scrolling to get to the most recent stuff. Anybody willing to give any odds on the Comey Vote. Several of you are so sure that Hillary will pull it off that it seems you're willing to bet the ranch on it. I'm just wondering what kind of odds are all those sure-shots willing to give, or are we doomed to receive only repeats of their staid old verbiage? GJR]

  • [Administrivia – I will be 'out of the sandbox' so to speak for the next week or so where connectivity may be a mite iffy.  I trust that everyone will behave themselves accordingly 😉  gjr]

  • George Rebane

    Last week we celebrated the tenth anniversary of TechTest at its traditional Survivors’ Breakfast held each spring at Tofanelli’s in Grass Valley.  TechTest is a four-hour merit scholarship examination, sponsored by the Sierra Economics and Science Foundation, used to award cash prizes to Nevada County seniors headed for STEM careers.  The awards are based solely on the examinees’ test scores.  Qualified juniors are invited to take the test, usually given in March, for practice.  More information is available on www.sesfoundation.org where you can also examine copies of all past exams.

    TT2016Survivors

    TechTest is administered and scored under the supervision of its academic committee which in the past was chaired by Mr John McDaniel, former award-winning physics teacher at Nevada Union High School.  Last year Mr McDaniel left teaching for a career in software engineering, and the administration of the test this year was assumed by the Nevada Union Joint High School District under the leadership of Superintendent Dr Louise Johnson.  The NUJHD scholarship chairman, Ms Barbara Ross, is the new TT academic chair.  The photo collage is from the breakfast showing the three high scorers who attended (several had conflicts in taking other tests and visiting college open houses).  All attendees received their coveted TT Survivors t-shirts.

    Several years back SESF was asked to also start TechTestJr for eighth graders.  This year marks TTJr’s fourth year.  It will be given on 19 May at the Telestream facility.  Telestream is one of the community sponsors of the TechTests.  Plans are afoot to develop yet an earlier version of TTJr for students in the early grades.   Mr David Pistone, SESF board member, is the developer of TTJr and coordinates its administration with the various participating middle schools.  (My role has been as the author and SESF coordinator of TechTest, and I also conduct the January/February TT seminars which test takers may attend before tackling the test itself.)

    The students’ response to SESF’s annual merit scholarship tests over the years has been heartening, and all of us involved with this project to promote young people’s interest in STEM careers are grateful to our county’s schools and teachers for preparing their ‘elite to compete’.

  • George Rebane

    [This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 4 May 2016.  See also notice of another upcoming KVMR community affairs broadcast.]

    Last night in Indiana Trump got more than 53% of the Republican vote, again handily beating Cruz and Kasich both of whom have ended their campaigns.  But on the Democrat side Queen Hillary got broadsided by Comrade Bernie by what in elections is called a landslide – 53% to 47%.  Going forward to the Democrat machine controlled convention, socialist Sanders’ victory will continue as the least prickly burr under Clinton’s blanket.  With Trump’s win it is almost certain that The Donald will be running against Hillary this November.  I’ll cover the ‘almost certain’ part later.

    The nomination of Trump in Cleveland will be historic in that the Republicans will then place their first rogue candidate on the ballot.  A nominee seen as a flamboyant businessman with a very large ego whose campaign was from the beginning considered a comedic fluke.  Yet less than a year later Trump has ended the presidential ambitions of 17 capable competitors, of whom all but two are experienced elected politicians.  And he did it by breaking every rule about how one should run a national campaign.  Now if the past is any indication, he will continue his run in a manner not yet seen in American politics.  We all can expect a riveting road to November.

    Today the Sanders/Trump supporters demonstrate that a good fraction of Americans believe their federal government is broken and cannot be repaired with the usual changing of the guard.  Each candidate prescribes a very different regimen to make things right, and in that their strident populist messages confirm that America is severely, if not terminally, divided into two irreconcilable socio-political cohorts.

    But to win, Trump will have to overcome an entrenched demographic that has given the Democrats an electoral college handicap for almost two generations. Since Democrats outnumber Republicans in our large welfare-laden and mismanaged cities, Trump will have to win over the lion’s share of the so-called independents.  And his only tool for doing that is the one he shares with Bernie – the promise that some form of trade isolationism will bring back or create new jobs.  But neither candidate has revealed how they would invoke such a magical spell on the land.  Therefore, so long as Hillary can stay on the ticket, her pivot toward the center and promise of running the country as Obama 3.0 should then put her in the White House.

    All this analysis is remarkable in that, according to the polls, Democrats know that Hillary has always been a scheming liar and incompetent at every real project she has undertaken.  But her ineptness, corruptions, and scandals are a matter of record, already accepted, and now forgotten.  The remaining Damocles sword that still hangs over her head is the Comey Vote.  And you can bet the ranch that Trump will do everything he can to goad the FBI director to cast that vote as early as possible, even as the bureau continues its investigation of Clinton’s mishandling of classified materials.

    If Comey delivers already established evidence to the Dept of Justice calling for Hillary’s indictment, she will instantly be dead meat as a candidate; both Trump and Sanders will see to that, regardless of what the DoJ then will do.  Even Obama’s anticipated pardon will not help her.  And if Comey somehow concludes that there is not enough evidence to indict her, then I foresee a national scandal fed by the inevitable FBI leaks and mass resignations.  There will definitely be street protests against what millions will see as irrefutable proof of Washington corrupt and broken.

    But what if Comey capitulates, surrenders his reputation as a straight shooter, and just keeps his lips sealed as we head to November?  Then I believe it’s anyone’s guess as to how effective will be Trump’s campaign invective that will paint Hillary as part and parcel of a demonstrably dysfunctional federal government which she as president will have no choice but to maintain its stone walls and continue business as usual.

    My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on Rebane’s Ruminations where the transcript of this commentary is posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening.

    [Notice]  KVMR News Director Paul Emery and I had an extended conversation with Nevada County Sheriff Keith Royal about Measure W, the upcoming voter initiative that will define permitted medical marijuana grows in the county.  KVMR will broadcast this conversation on 5 May 2016 at 6PM.  See also previous RR posts on Measure W.

  • Not the village constable.  There are men of evil mind, who would make of everything a crime, and not because of passion, but just naturally.  They condemn everybody, some for what they have done, and others for what they may do. …  Gracian #109

    George Rebane

    It was 13 years ago today that we moved into our current home.  The evening before a light snow started falling and we went to bed worried about the two Japanese maples which frame our front entrance.  As today, the trees had already leafed and we weren’t sure how much snow load their branches could stand.  I got up early, looked out the window to see a much heavier snow falling.  We both jumped out of bed, dressed, and rushed to our ‘new’ house over snow covered streets.  We got there in time; the leafed branches of the specimen trees were full of snow and bent to the ground with a few already broken, but we did save the Japanese maples.

    Foreign affairs analyst, Robert D. Kaplan (The Post-Imperial Moment, 2016) is the latest to recognize the sweep of ‘great divides’ across the globe as people demand space (lebensraum) to practice their own cultures and celebrate their own ethnicities within existing sovereign nation-states.  Kaplan writes, “The upshot is a maelstrom of national and subnational groups in violent competition.  And so, geopolitics – the battle for space and power – now occurs within states as well as between them.”  These pages have been recording America’s progress toward a Great Divide as our progressive policies continue to call for the suppression of existing cultures and the celebration of arrived un-assimilating cultures.

    ARheadsetAugmented reality and ‘layered manufacturing’ (3D printing) are galloping into the marketplace.  I’ve described my own experiences in designing AR systems for equipment maintenance.  Today with advanced materials and computing power, these two technologies are making game-changing inroads.  And alas, as covered in these pages, the impact on our workforce will not be pretty.  There is little in these advancements that enable the systemically unskilled (and the unskillable) to penetrate job markets.  Check out the articles in the current (6may16) Economist here and here.

    The world of Uber is discovering ‘youth on demand’ jobs as reported in the 2may16 WSJ.  This appears to be an attempt to resurrect programs such as the California Youth Employment Agency of my youth.  Then a teen-ager would register with the CYEA, state what kind of jobs he was willing to do, and then get a phone call in the morning telling him the address of his employer du jour.  Home and small business owners would call the CYEA and tell them the work they needed done and what they were willing to pay.  Having arrived from Indiana in June 1957, through the CYEA I was able to work every day and earn good money doing so.  The CYEA acted as a clearing house that our state government of yore provided through its usual revenue sources, the young people and part-time employers paid nothing extra for the service.  Due to regulations, child-protective laws, litigiousness, and a generally progressive dumbass view of the world, such solutions for youth employment are no longer available.  Instead, we have a legion of dubious state sponsored ‘skills development programs’ for our unemployed young people.  But today no one can get a rent-a-kid for some chores around the house or shop.

    In their Relic (2016) social scientists William Howell and Terry Moe argue that “America needs a prime minister” in the form of a yet more powerful president who can submit bills directly to Congress for an up/down vote with no modifications allowed.  This is required in the 21st century because “government is broken, and changing the type of people elected to Congress won’t make a difference.  Amending the Constitution will.”  Their real druthers are that Congress would elect a president similar to how European parliaments elect their countries’ prime ministers.  Then there would be cohesion between the legislative and executive organs of government.  Howell and Moe clearly discount our Founders’ desire to minimize the size and role of government in our lives when they gave us the constitutionally separated and often contending powers in government.

    [update] Just got an email from our designated reader that the community’s low-life is now advising parents to be careful about their kids taking TechTest because I happen to be its author. Only the rabid left puts out such putrid politically inspired proscriptions.  Those primitives cannot separate one issue from another, whether here on the local level, in academe, or commerce.  If you don’t conform to their template of the perfect progressive, then you are also unqualified to perform any other function in society – everything you touch becomes tainted in their eyes.  Given the growing record of dismissals from universities, business, and government, our leftwing radicals are just coming into their stride.  In Red China, Cuba, Vietnam, and other totalitarian lands this kind of proscription has been successfully practiced for decades (and is currently enjoying a resurgence), which is why our socialists so fond of aping these policies.  When you cannot compete in the arena of ideas, this has always been the inevitable alternative.  And there are those who still say that it can’t happen in America.

  • George Rebane

    A continuing narrative on these pages has been the grossly asymmetric way that the Right (conservatives, libertarians) and Left (socialists, liberals) treat each other’s expression of ideas and beliefs in the public fora.  A corollary to this narrative is how narrow and broad are the spectra of news sources and commentaries that each side consumes.  This morning’s papers and news sites are chuck full of examples.

    Comparing those of collectivist vs conservetarian bent, I ask –

    • What’s the relative frequency of the Left vs Right assembling, organizing, and transporting a legion of hoodlums and rioters to block Right vs Left gatherings – political gatherings (e.g. here and here), conventions, economic conferences, religious meetings, … ?  (Here the progressive reader should do his best in the attempt to distinguish between a peaceful demonstration and a disruption requiring the presence of armed police to keep the peace).
    • Which political cohort has subverted our educational system to become the outlet for disseminating their ideology and enforcing ‘correct thinking’ about every social issue of significance?
    • Which political cohort has commandeered the humanities in the nation’s institutions of higher learning, and in the process created a generation of intellectually vapid students who must be actively and selectively shielded from politically incorrect, insensitive, and sometimes outrageous ideas and modes of thought?
    • The congressional members of which party have politicized science and are now actively attacking corporations, think tanks, and scientific agencies to criminalize public skepticism of the causes and portents of global warming?
    • People of which political philosophy are actively promoting policies and laws that continually diminish the public’s use of public lands and public waters.
    • Which political extreme takes as ground truth that if an individual is only against government funding of some activity, then that is indisputable evidence that they are actively trying to proscribe or censor that activity per se.
    • People of which political philosophy are actively promoting objectives and "sustainable development" policies which are stated (here) in the UN’s Agenda 21 (while vehemently denying that they are doing any such thing).

    (more…)

  • [To the scurrilous would-be character assassins that frequent these pages I have a question.  How does diverting to and focusing on Hitler's reputation as genocidal maniac bear on Germany's introduction of autobahns in a productive discussion about the development and utility of limited access highways?  gjr]

  • George Rebane

    [This is the transcript from my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 28 April 2016.]

    Conservatives, and even some libertarians for good measure, are accused of wanting to bring back the America of the early post-war years – the period from, say, 1945 to 1960. When any of the progressive media find someone prominent longing for those bygone days, they are immediately pounced upon and ridiculed as a knuckle dragger who wants the country to return to Jim Crow racism, to abandon the technical advances such as the personal computer, the internet, modern medicines, and most certainly to go back to a time when we ignored our environment.

    And there is nothing nuanced about how liberals perceive someone who points out another silly aspect of today’s political correctness. These are stigmatized and accused of longing for what today is labeled as the ‘bad old days’, an epoch we abandoned as we became aware of social injustices to which formerly we were blind, and we realized that equal opportunity and equal outcomes were the measure of each other, and came to understand that all forms of diversity are now the new normal no longer subject to our individual value judgments. But most of all, that western culture and civilization has been and continues to be the source of evil in this world.

    That aspects of the Americana of those bygone days might be worth another look never crosses the minds of our progressive neighbors. And most certainly, even if yesterday did have any good parts, these would be so ineradicably bound up with the really bad parts, that separating them out would be futile. How could we ever return to a time when kids played unsupervised on neighborhood streets, took part in unplanned pick-up baseball or basketball games, carried a BB-gun, earned money doing chores for neighbors, built forts and played war, and learned to resolve differences all by themselves? How could we again conceive of forsaken liberties that did not need to be reined in by growing stacks of laws, ordinances, and regulations to keep us on the straight and narrow?

    Today we are taught that all conflict resolution must involve the state, that defense of your person or property makes you at least as guilty as your assailant, that your parenting skills are problematic at best, that your children are really wards of the state and only tentatively in your custody, that your property is yours only to the degree that it pleases the state, that owning and operating a business is prima facie evidence of greed and corruption, and that we should strive to build a society in which we can take from each according to their excesses, and redistribute to each according to their need. All that within a framework in which a famous 20th century social engineer observed that to make a delicious omelet, one first had to crack a few eggs.

    Today it does not take a genius to see that we are already in the egg cracking phase on our way to a brave new global society. And how could we miss that certain candidates running for office this year have already promised and pointed out the next eggs that will need to be cracked when they get elected. Most certainly those of us longing for the ‘bad old days’ are prime candidates to be whipped into a homogeneous and undifferentiated amalgam that will become the fundamentally transformed omelet of our collective future.

    My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on Rebane’s Ruminations where the transcript of this commentary is posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively. However my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR. Thank you for listening.

  • George Rebane

    Suppose astute observers of the political scene Manny, Moe, and Jack want to demonstrate their prognostication skills in a wager, and they decide to show their acumen by predicting the number of delegates with which Donald Trump arrives at the Republican Convention this July.  Now the standard way to do that would be for each to put, say, $10 into the pot and pick a number.  The one who comes closest to Trump’s actual number of delegates wins; ties split the pot.  A pretty plebian way to proceed, but it serves well for the unimaginative.

    However, Manny, Moe, and Jack are a bit more sophisticated than that, and want to wager like the ‘big kids’ do.  They realize that each stating a single number does not really capture a complete representation of anyone’s uncertain knowledge since Trump’s actual number is really a random variable that will be ‘drawn’ from a probability distribution that defines the likelihood of a number of delegates from a range of such numbers.  So they agree that each will submit their distribution for Trump’s delegates.  Being aware of the nifty properties of the MAB distribution (here) for capturing such subjective knowledge, they decide to use it, and each submits his 4-tuple [low, high, most likely (or best guess), confidence].  They agree to split the pot pro rata on their resulting likelihood scores.

    When the actual number of delegates becomes known, so will the likelihood value from each of three submitted distributions, say, 0.07, 0.34, 0.21.  This means that Manny gets 0.07/0.62 = 11.3%, Moe gets 0.34/0.62 = 54.8%, and Jack gets 0.21/0.62 = 33.9% of the $30 pot, or $3.39, $16.45, and $10.16 respectively.   Not exactly rocket science, but it is easy to calculate and yields the correct way to pay off bets that reflect the quality of each bettor’s knowledge.

    (If this wager required no initial submission of funds, then the bet is reconciled by Manny sending Moe $6.45, and Jack $0.16.  Easy money.)

    So now I invite our equally astute RR readers to submit their MAB 4-tuples for the pre-convention delegate counts for as many of the five candidates as they care to prognosticate.  Submit your entries before 2359PST 27 April.  Since I don’t want to handle any monies, we can make this go-around be cashless and just compare likelihood values to see who really would have taken home the bacon.  To make things easier, I’ll do all the heavy lifting in calculating the resulting likelihoods and post them with appropriate fanfare.  Or you algebraically comfortable can do your own using the MAB formula given in the above link.

    If this draws enough interest, we can then do it again (maybe even for real) with the presidential election wherein readers can submit their MABs for the percent popular vote and also the electoral  college vote in the presidential election.  This should demonstrate the quality of the many claims of who will beat whose ass that have been made in these comment streams by several strident and determined voices.

    To help you generate your MABs, here are the current delegate counts before tonight’s primary results are reported (click on figure to enlarge).

    RepubDelegates_26apr16

22 comments on Ruminations – 23may16 (updated 27may16)