[Many apologies for my delinquency. I (we?) got so caught up in analyzing the conventions and candidate bloopers, that the last sandbox just faded away in the rear view mirror. gjr]

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George Rebane
This little monograph is the most recent in the series to explain Bayesian reasoning to the non-technical (but otherwise intelligent) reader, and will serve as a reference for future posts. Some previous efforts in this direction can be found here and here. In the sequel we repeat the exercise graphically without resorting to a rigorous development using equations.
Understanding Bayesian reasoning is important because of its place in all of our lives. Today it is marbled into literally every facet of what we do, what is done to us, how we handle uncertainty (e.g. risk), and how we attempt to reason. Bayesian methods underlie and enable countless technologies that range all the way from providing the water out of your faucet, the manufacture of your car, how your 401K is invested, to the detection of dreaded diseases. In the last thirty years Bayesian reasoning has literally become ubiquitous in all areas save demagoguery, journalism, law, and politics. The major effort of protagonists in those arenas is to hide and/or deny Bayesian reasoning to their audiences.
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George Rebane
OK, boys and girls, I see that between now and November many of us will have real serious problems with the two main candidates running for president. To date these feelings have proven so strong that they demand expression under posts of opportunity, posts that have more focused topics and whose comment streams don’t require your detailed diagnoses of the candidates’ character flaws, recently discovered sins, tweets du jour, and general pickings from a wide palette (smorgasbord?) of incoming slings and arrows with which each candidate has inflicted us, our country, and/or our body politic. Think of these lightly introduced receptacles as another form of dedicated and dated sandboxes which will be refreshed as new fault lines develop in each member of this dynamic duo.
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George Rebane
The years long debate on RR over how to deal with MJ grows in Nevada County now enters a new, and perhaps final phase. Our latest post on this was ‘Medical Marijuana Ordinance – BoS Meeting’. I want that post to be a preamble to the continued deliberations for NC's newly adopted MMJ ordinance that will continue with modifications and no doubt stabilize only after the November elections, and after more meetings with citizen stakeholders. The discussion/debate for this post-adoption phase needs its own venue on RR, and here it is.
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George Rebane
[This is the addended transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 3 August 2016.]
Liberal economist Professor Alan Blinder of Princeton maintains that 'Only (Hillary Clinton) Can Make Wages Grow Again', and then launches into a lecture on how economic policies by government fiat will outperform the market driven nostrums advanced by Donald Trump.
He rejects out of hand Trump’s workforce supply and demand argument along with lowering the American employers’ tax burden as ways to encourage and promote the ability of companies to raise wages. In Blinder’s epistle there is no recognition that workers’ wages are based on the value workers deliver to their employer, and that in turn is naturally dependent on the workers’ productivity. There is no reasonable way around these age old economic principles save through force by the government gun, and history makes plain the kind of economies which result from such autocratic policies.
It is important to understand the good professor’s counsel because he serves as an economic adviser to Mrs Clinton, and is a prominent national spokesman for a cadre of progressive economists. Blinder’s list of Clinton’s superior economic policies is 1) raise the minimum wage, 2) force corporations to share profits with workers, 3) launch government subsidized vocational education programs, and mandate employer provided apprenticeships, 4) compel states to provide pre-K education to all, and 5) increase the federal Earned Income Tax Credit.
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George Rebane
The Republicans are rightly worried.
Hillary rolls Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. Hillary Clinton gave an impeccable interview yesterday in which she remained presidentially poised, in control, non-defensive, and as devious as she has ever been. Interpreting and revising everything from congressional testimonies, FBI investigations, news videos, published emails, … . The woman showed everyone how all of these damning issues appear absolutely benign from the parallel universe in which she dwells. The interview was simply an exoneration of Hillary provided by Fox and the inept Wallace who let every outrageous response stand and simply moved on to the next question to repeat the farce. Understandably Hillary was visibly pleased with the interview and her performance in it. She will be back.
The chameleon face of Hillary reveals itself in more secure environments absent the press. There she is notorious for being a world-class shrew with her pecked-order peers, staff, and security using language that would make a sailor blush. Numerous authors and former staffers have all told the same stories of a banshee whose temper is permanently frayed and screams epithets like, “Fuck off! It’s enough I have to see you shit-kickers every day! I’m not going to talk to you, too! Just do your Goddamn job and keep your mouth shut.” Yes indeed, Madame President.
Everyone remember when Romney told the naïf Obama that the embarrassingly ‘reset’ Russia is our main enemy? He still doesn’t have a clue.
And does everyone know the pro-jihadist past and views of our new Democrat VP Kaine who now will be “Stronger Together” with Hillary? I didn’t until a correspondent sent me this revelation from The American Thinker. More true colors of what the Obama 3.0 administration will deliver for America.
Appeal to readers – can anyone point me to the site that publishes the updated polling data from CNN, Fox, and WSJ? These polls are acknowledged as being technically the most reliable. I’m interested in data that includes the poll’s sample size and description, polling date/interval, questionnaire, and, of course, the results and their confidence interval.
Ever wonder why the networks air interviews with pundits whose ‘expert views’ on possible future alternatives on an issue are 50-50 – ‘but on the other hand …’. When one assigns equal likelihood to the possible outcomes, he is just pumping hot air to extend his complexified version of the more succinct simple answer of ‘I don’t know.’ That being the case, why have such talking heads consume valuable broadcast time? If nothing else, they could instead have a pleasant musical interlude to more profitably fill the interval.
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George Rebane
On the last day of the Democratic Convention we suddenly saw some very un-Democratic displays of military officers on the podium, (borrowed) Old Glories galore, and shouts of ‘USA!, USA!, …’ from the floor. So much in fact that NPR’s Weekend Edition had to do a feature piece on it asking experts what is the meaning of this year’s Democrats coopting traditionally Republican totems. The answer, of course, is beyond simple.To support the newest National Lie expertly floated by President Obama last Wednesday about how well the economy is doing, the Democrats scuttled back for instructions from their political bible, Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals. And there it was, plain as day – when getting caught doing something bad, spout the good stuff from the other side while blaming your bad stuff on them.
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“The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their proper name.” Confucius
George Rebane
Since Turkey’s Erdogan most recently explained to the world of infidels – “Islam is Islam, there are no modifiers. Democracy is the train we ride to our ultimate objective.” – more and more articles now appear expanding on that truth by quoting leaders from America’s Muslim communities. One by Scott Richert is ‘Islam, Period’.
Pew Research has shown that the maturing seeds of Islamic terror are already among us. This we have reported before; however, the scope of the problem is something that expands as we understand the numbers and suffer the growing intensity of the so-called lone wolf attacks. Pew also reports on the insularity of Muslim communities that makes it difficult/impossible for so-called moderate Muslims to report any insipient radicalization of their members. From attitudinal surveys the population of potentially radicalizeable American Muslims today is about one in five adults. At a population of 2.75-3M, this yields a cohort of potential terrorists among us that numbers in the hundreds of thousands. And from this heating cauldron of hate we have no idea who or where the next Islamist will decide to do Allah’s will.
Social scientists tell us that historically it takes only 5% of true believers in some socio-political cause to destabilize an entire population. Fewer, if they become militants.
Progressive mantra, ‘Will trade liberty for peace.’
Daily terror – the drumbeat of terror is picking up the pace – in the last 24 hours an elderly French priest holding mass was decapitated in front of his congregation by two terrorists. An attending nun is fighting for her life. While in Berlin a physician was killed by a patient whose ethnic identity is still being kept a secret.
Ever wonder how the Democrats can spout the fantastic job that Obama has done with the economy (‘everything is already great’) from one side of their mouths, while from the other side they concurrently appeal for votes so that they can implement their plan to fix the stubbornly poor economy? Answer: such contradictions are invisible to their constituents.
[28jul16 update] The WSJ tells us “The next U.S. president will confront a deeply unsettled world”, and then goes on to compare the candidates’ foreign policy positions without making clear that only one candidate had a direct hand in deeply unsettling the world which, in the interval, she now claims to have learned to resettle. (more here)
[29jul16 update] When they venture into numbers, economists continually demonstrate themselves to be clueless about how economies operate. Even when they stay in the safe arena of rhetoric, they have to cover their butts with their notorious ‘… on the other hand’ pabulum fully adorned with tautological conditionals that a ten-year-old can generate. ‘Unemployment is expected to grow unless, of course, if interest rates go up then we may have a problem.’ Now what in hell are you supposed to do with that kind of horse manure?
But with numbers they really show themselves to be totally naked and unarmed. This January economists predicted annual GDP growth to finally spring back to the 3% level, thereby giving Obama some cover that his administration finally knew what they were doing in managing this recovery. No joy. With 1Q16 growth at 1.6%, and today we hear that 2Q16 came in at 1.2%, then each of the remaining two quarters will have to deliver 4.6% for the predicted annual 3% growth to be realized. Anybody wanna bet even their pocket change that this will happen? And what’s more amazing is that these people get hired by banks, big companies, and government bureaus for good salaries.
I’m not familiar with any other profession that stands still for such poor performance from their professionals. Well, maybe the so-called climate scientists peddling AGW hysteria. Neither group has computer models that are worth a warm bucket of spit.
[3aug16 update] By now everyone has heard of our $400M ransom payment in small bills delivered to Iran in an unmarked brown paper airplane. And the cover story comes from an arcane, dusty, and long-forgotten larder that's just chuck full of many more like it, all ready made to handle future payments. But the most remarkable thing is that they really believe we believe them. More here.
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George Rebane
Tomorrow the Nevada County Board of Supervisors will meet to “Introduce/Waive further reading/Adopt An Urgency Ordinance adding Subsections … (long list of subsections) … of Article 5 of Chapter IV, of the Nevada County General Code, regarding Marijuana Cultivation Regulations. (4/5 affirmative vote required)” The meeting will be held in the Rood Center and the BoS agenda calls for the MMJ ordinance part to start at 1:30PM.
The new ordinance is a complex affair that has been much discussed and described in these pages – most recently here. The ordinance has two antecedents which have also garnered much controversy and form the prime input to the current ordinance scheduled for adoption. To aid in sorting out the evolution of these ordinances, you can download a comparative analysis generated over the last few days by Jo Ann Rebane (the wife of my life). It has been distributed to the interested BoS members and the principals on the pro/con side of the MMJ cultivation issue. Download Marijuana Ordinance Study v3 2016 Aug 25
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