Rebane's Ruminations
June 2023
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[Public service information – The most recent edition of modern strategy makers was just published.  The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023, Princeton University Press) follows the second edition (1986) of collected writings on transnational strategies that was launched with its first edition in 1943.  The collected essays by history’s notables range in time from 4,000 BC to the present.  Heavy emphasis is on thoughts of 20th century world leaders and luminaries.  The 1,100+ page tome is edited by Hal Brands and put out through the auspices of the Henry Kissinger Center for Global Affairs.  In its various editions Makers continues to be the handbook for analyzing, understanding, and formulating the strategies of empires and sovereign nation states.  The contributions from Sun-Zi through Mao Zedong are classics which bear on decisions made today on the national objectives and conduct of military, economic, trade, etc strategies.  The book reads well and its heft promotes maintenance of upper body strength for the diligent reader.  gjr]

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276 responses to “Sandbox – 20jun23”

  1. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Scotto: Nope – it depends on who you ask. General population vs “car buyers”.
    Car buyers are the only group that matters to a car seller and the only group that matters in terms of vehicle mix.
    “I think that what will happen within a decade or so,”
    Oh, there’ll be plenty of new features. The ability to turn the car off remotely, car won’t start if you’re drunk, cameras inside and out accessible by just about any gubmint agency, insurance companies base rate on your driving (Tesla insurance already does this), taxes based on some great big equation of mileage/time/where/etc, lots and lots of mandated safety gizmos, conditional driver’s licenses dictated by the car, force your car to be a grid-tied battery, probably 100 other things. Self-driving is another big can of worms in that you can likely do a better job if 100% of cars on the road have that a capability and can swap stories with each other.
    It’s pretty easy to think of ‘features’ and some case can be made for any of them.
    It’s a bummer since we are able to build a quite simple ‘lectric car, but that ain’t gonna happen. Lots of good deeds to be enforced.

    Like

  2. Scott O Avatar

    scenes – not to pick nits or nuthin but:
    “Of the US consumers planning on purchasing a new vehicle in the next 24 months, nearly half (48%) intend to purchase an EV – which is up 19% from 29% in the 2022 EY MCI.”
    “…the next 24 months”
    There’s a shit load of car buyers that will be buying cars outside of that time window and their opinions will end up counting just as much.
    So it’s not as simple as just saying it’s car buyers vs non-car buyers.
    I totally agree with your point about how they could make a simple e-car, but it seems they just have to load on the crap. I would totally buy right now a simple one that maybe had a top speed of 80-85, range of 100 miles and a basic interior of cloth and plastic. Keep it under $15K. It could be done, but the profit margin just wouldn’t be enough to entice any car maker. They can make way more selling the e-pickups, luxury jobs and fancy sedans loaded with all manner of gizmos I don’t want or need.

    Like

  3. The Estonian Fox Avatar
    The Estonian Fox

    We should all be grateful for this fine survey. Let’s see here- quick math check (done gratis by the engg crew at OceanGate Marine Enterprises (what else do they have to do??)-
    New car sales 2021 = 15.02M
    New car sales 2022 = 13.74M (a down year) see graph-
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/06/2022-us-auto-sales-are-worst-in-more-than-a-decade-.html
    Actual new U.S. EV car sales 1Q23 = 0.257M = 1.028M annually. https://insideevs.com/news/667516/us-electric-car-sales-2023q1/
    48% of new-car-demand sales, according to the survey, going to EVs = 6.6M EVs needed over 2 years.
    (N.B. – there have been unsubstantiated tales of alien 9-car space teleporters appearing at various places around the U.S.)
    Reports are that even though the arrival of so many cars meeting all of the NHTSA’s regulations (except chirality – you didn’t know about that one did’ja?), many were rejected by our beloved govt.
    Yes, you got it – Most of the cars are alseT’s and the steering wheel is on the RIGHT side of the car. Boy, that survey must have been taken by all left-handed enumerators. What a clusterf**k. If only those teleporters had taken a LEFT at that worm-hole, we would have been able to fill Joey B’s promise of an EV in every pot. Alas.

    Like

  4. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    scotto
    https://cars.tatamotors.com/cars/tiago/price
    Less than 7k$ if you pick it up in Mumbai.
    35l fuel capacity, a 1.2l 3 cylinder engine.

    Like

  5. Scott O Avatar

    Gregory 4:51 – Yeah, there are all sorts of cars like that available worldwide, but not in the good ol USA. I used to commute with a Geo Metro (Suzuki Swift) for years. I loved that car. I loved blowing past Corvettes and Ferraris on I80 on the way to work. Now, coming home was a different story. I could make the speed limit on the grades if I built up some speed. Can’t buy a car like that anymore in this country.
    Anyway – a stick would not work with the “other” driver.
    Speaking of cars you can’t have – Govt control is wonderful:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SEfwoqKRU8
    You can scroll past the wallet ad.

    Like

  6. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    The interesting one to keep an eye on is EV sales in China (world’s largest car market).
    The Japanese were late to the party and are likely screwed in China. Large supply chain there for components. Brilliant opportunity to take over the world, which is filled with high legacy costs in that industry. The US will probably have to increasingly amp up tariffs as I don’t believe we are equipped to compete in much of any consumer-level industry.
    Personally, I’m a believer that EVs will dominate, but am not sure when the inflection point occurs. Naturally, if ICE shrinks, the costs will go up for them, causing a bad feedback loop. Dunno what the future of subsidies will be.
    I do have the impression that insurance will be an increasing problem. The problems of collision repair and low cost to build look to be at loggerheads. Larger and larger monolithic components, fragile electronics.

    Like

  7. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Customers have a say and its a reality check to the new green deals failures! It appears that having a fun ride trumps virtue signaling. LOL –
    Now the company will take a wait-and-see approach to go EV-only with its best-selling model, Porsche told its U.S. retailers at a two-day meeting in the Canary Islands this week.
    “They are going to review it,” a retailer at the meeting told Automotive News. “They will see how sales go in the next two years.”
    Last year, the Macan accounted for a third of Porsche’s U.S. sales.
    The dealer said the apprehension about going all-electric with the volume model concerns the lack of well-maintained public charging infrastructure.
    “They got customer pushback,” he said. “They realized there are not enough chargers out there” to support the Macan customer base.
    At the meeting, attended by Porsche Cars North America CEO Kjell Gruner, executives demurred on plans to follow the auto industry in plugging into Tesla’s Supercharger network.
    https://currently.att.yahoo.com/autos/porsche-having-second-thoughts-replacing-135000204.html
    😉

    Like

  8. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Toyota counterpoint.
    “Toyota investors are calling for the board chair’s ouster over the Japanese carmaker’s slow move to EVs”
    https://fortune.com/2023/06/13/akio-toyoda-toyota-board-chair-shareholder-meeting-ev-electric-car/
    “Toyota’s Late Turn Toward EVs May Be Too Little, Too Late”
    https://www.torquenews.com/16317/toyotas-late-turn-toward-evs-may-be-too-little-too-late
    “Why Toyota Spent Years Treating Electric Cars Like the Enemy”
    https://slate.com/business/2023/01/toyota-electric-vehicles-slow-why-hybrid-prius-bz4x-rav4.html
    “Japan sends a concerned MESSAGE to Toyota on electric car production”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndgiC_fG_W8

    Like

  9. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    …now, having posted those, I don’t have a dog in the hunt. Car design is one of those things people have decided to politicize for some unknown reason. The auto business has always been expert at hitting people in the feelz, selling scads of diesel F-250s with always-empty beds to white dudes, Subarus to lesbians, or Escalades in the hood.
    It does seem to me that the car biz is absolutely ripe to be torn apart though. Any sort of major change in design (EV is one, software content is another, change in retail structure, manufacturing process like gigacasting) presents a problem for big existing players. It isn’t just that they’re debt-laden, union-laden, retiree-laden, but they have also have a ton of inertia. Yesterday’s world-spanning GM is today’s Kodak or DEC.
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-earns-8-times-more-profit-than-Toyota-per-car

    Like

  10. Scott O Avatar

    scenes 7:00 – Ha ha! OK – Toyota is trying to play it smart.
    Maybe the new head honcho didn’t get the memo?
    Looks like he’s getting it now.

    Like

  11. fishanthrope Avatar
    fishanthrope

    Talking about coming up on the outside…..Baltimore bringing it strong!

    30 People Shot, 2 Dead As Block Party In Baltimore Turns Into ‘War Zone’

    Chicago….you have two more days and it’s a long weekend…..don’t…let…me…down!
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/30-people-shot-2-dead-block-party-baltimore-turns-war-zone

    Like

  12. fishanthrope Avatar
    fishanthrope

    “This morning, all of Baltimore is grieving for the lives that we lost here,” Mayor Brandon Scott said at a press conference early Sunday morning.
    Scott called the shooting “a reckless, cowardly act” that “did not have to happen.” He said, “We will not stop until we find you, and we will find you. Until then, I hope with every single breath that you take that you think about the lives that you took.”
    Scott, elected in 2020, pledged to reduce gun violence. However, his crimefighting plan has been all but a failure (so far).

    “We will not stop until we find you, and we will find you…..and then we will make sure one of our Soros hack DA’s cuts you loose after a stern talking to.
    So enough of the endless hand wringing….time for a little Chicago vs Baltimore…..time for some vigorous east coast trash talk…..Mayor-o a Mayor-o
    Chi Town…..they’ve thrown down the gauntlet….you know what to do! I need to see “Brandon v Brandon – The Brandoning!”

    Like

  13. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    re: fishanthrope
    Ah well. Anything you observe about the situation is racist, any policing that might change it is racist, and that’s that. They sure know how to give exciting birthday parties for 10 year-olds though.
    I figure that as long as that sort of thing is contained, no one really much cares. We’ll send in Snake Plissken for a status report in a few years.

    Like

  14. fishanthrope Avatar
    fishanthrope

    Posted by: scenes | 02 July 2023 at 01:07 PM
    If I ignore it it’s racist, if I pay attention it’s racist, if I comment about it it’s racist, if I say nothing it’s racist, if I lament the fact that it happens it’s racist….you see where this is headed don’t you?
    I don’t worry about charges of racism at all ….its just an overused word employed to shame and terrify white progressives!

    Like

  15. Scott O Avatar

    f. rope 2:05 – And we’re really, really not supposed to note it has the revealing ratio of injured-to-killed. Sailer’s Law.
    scenes 1:07 – “I figure that as long as that sort of thing is contained, no one really much cares.”
    Yeah, I don’t think Biden is going to visit the survivors. There’s just no political juice to get out of it.

    Like

  16. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    I wonder if anyone told him he was like the 23rd person asked to be the face of the failed V? Funny he does not respond to the $170,000 the county spent on V. –
    https://www.theunion.com/news/community/ideas-opinions-terry-mcateer-conspiracy-theorists-who-sue-the-county-cost-us-taxpayers/article_0cae9bea-179e-11ee-89b0-87e9ef0b5086.html
    😉

    Like

  17. fishanthrope Avatar
    fishanthrope

    We need a serious conversation about Joe Biden’s brain

    “We have plans to build a railroad from the Pacific all the way across the Indian Ocean,” the president said this month during an address before the League of Conservation Voters.
    “I’ve committed to — by 2020, we will have conserved 30 percent of all the lands and waters the United States has jurisdiction over and simultaneously reduce emissions to blunt climate impact,” he said.
    Following a June 16 speaking engagement at the University of Hartford in Connecticut, where Biden promoted gun control efforts, the president signed off by saying, “God save the Queen, man.”

    See….this is the Shotgun Joey I was counting on in 2015-2016….the senile, malaprop spouting, underaged girl sniffing, post aneurysm Joey whose sole remaining skill is graft.
    God save the Queen indeed!
    https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4075227-we-need-a-serious-conversation-about-joe-bidens-brain/

    Like

  18. 🐠 Avatar
    🐠

    …..and then the competitor you aren’t even paying any attention goes and makes a big play!

    Gunman opens fire at random on Philadelphia streets, killing 5 before he is arrested, police say

    There’s a reason I don’t gamble on sports.
    https://apnews.com/article/philadephia-shooting-7e205d7b2b89251ffb5a109a1a99c94a

    Like

  19. 🐠 Avatar
    🐠

    They found the lever to extract the tick in the White House….

    Critics of the Bidens have long been puzzled about the opulent spending habits and costly acquisitions of Joe and Jill Biden, Hunter Biden, Jim Biden, and other lesser family satellites on the clan’s dole.

    Out by November?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-existential-threats-american-rule-law-vdh

    Like

  20. 🐠 Avatar
    🐠

    The Biden Family……restoring honor and dignity to the White House.

    Substance found in White House library tests positive for cocaine.

    https://nypost.com/2023/07/04/cocaine-found-on-white-house-premises-dispatch-call-shows/

    Like

  21. 🐠 Avatar
    🐠

    …..and right on cue!

    Philly Mass Shooting Suspect Identified As 40 Year Old Black Lives Matter Supporter

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/five-killed-mass-shooting-southwest-philadelphia-monday

    Like

  22. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    “Philly Mass Shooting Suspect Identified As 40 Year Old Black Lives Matter Supporter”
    Behold the face of Progressive America.
    https://i.redd.it/48bjx6lbdz9b1.png
    I guess the lesson is that crazy people can be crazy in more than one way.

    Like

  23. fishanthrope Avatar
    fishanthrope

    I’m sure he does….

    “The president thinks this is incredibly important to get to the bottom of,”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/secret-service-investigating-how-cocaine-got-white-house

    Like

  24. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    “I’m sure he does….”
    hah. Well, ya gotta use it all to get to the bottom.
    Speaking of the First Son, I ran into this again. lol, what a piece of work these people are.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX0wEBAxY1o

    Like

  25. fishanthrope Avatar
    fishanthrope

    But, but, but…..Mark said it was going to be….friendly!

    Meta Launches Data-Harvesting Twitter Clone, Immediately Starts Censoring

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/metas-twitter-clone-reaches-10-million-users-hours-aoc-says-app-bricked-her

    Like