Rebane's Ruminations
October 2020
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[Halloween will be extended by several weeks this year as the scary election returns and adjudicated ruling start coming in.  In the meantime, I invite those prognosticators of the presidential race to use the spreadsheet with assignable probabilities to express their views.  Using that model, instead of the limited information point estimate maps provided online, allows us to also calculate the chances that either candidate can win, and let’s us see how the probabilities shift as the state’s shift their electors.  The innumerates keep fooling themselves that our universe is constructed with predestined point quantities, instead of an unending sea of probability distributions that define all apprehended knowledge, and from which reality is sampled with the passage of time. Gjr

https://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2020/07/election2020-electoral-college-predictor.html ]

Posted in

142 responses to “Sandbox – 31oct20”

  1. Walt Avatar

    This is who the Commiecrats are really trying to elect as dictator.
    https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/30/before-joe-biden-even-elected-leftist-democrats-already-planning-kamala-harris-to-lead-post-biden-democratic-party/
    “Axios released a report Friday morning citing how many on the left view Harris — a California senator and Biden’s running mate — as the face and leader of what Axios called “a post-Biden Democratic Party.””

    Like

  2. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    George. My wife bought us “The Gulag Archipelago” this week. After that we are going to read a book by Shafarevich called “The Socialist Phenomenon.” While in my youth I believed that such things could never happen here in America, over the past few years I am convinced otherwise. It is time to turn this franchise around. Thank you for your insight over the years.

    Like

  3. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    A decent statement by Glenn Greenwald on T. Carlson.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8pkCZBjgrk
    I can’t find a single thing to disagree with here.
    The pro-police state Republicans have got to be feeling pretty silly at this point. The federal power structure never was your friend, it’s simply a scorpion that chose a different set of people to ride.
    re: “The Gulag Archipelago”. To the extent that it’s an attempt to understand modern times by finding rhyming behavior in the past, I can’t say that the 1917 Russian Revolution is a good model. OTOH, authoritarian governments tend to follow the same playbook so there is that value.

    Like

  4. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    “authoritarian governments tend to follow the same playbook so there is that value.” Exactly.

    Like

  5. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Here’s Why Judge Sullivan Must Disqualify Himself From Michael Flynn’s Case
    Sullivan’s apparent animus toward Flynn’s attorney and his fixation on Flynn being punished demonstrate bias in this case — sufficient to require his disqualification.
    https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/31/heres-why-judge-sullivan-must-disqualify-himself-from-michael-flynns-case/

    Like

  6. George Rebane Avatar

    BarryP 1017am – Thank you for the kind words. The fundamental schema toward autocracy now happening in the US is not new. I have seen it before (and the Rebanes are the only ones here who have contributed members to the USSR’s population of zeks). Be sure you get all three volumes of the ‘Gulag …’.
    And congrats on the new young un’, happy sleepless days. However, there’s always ‘And this too shall pass.’ 😉

    Like

  7. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    If you are not totally shocked, disgusted, fearful, apprehensive, upset, angry, and have the urge to go out and string up some members of the Industrial Jacobin Media Complex,
    in the town square, then one does not realize the breath of the Greenwald bloodbath.
    I see it as a watershed moment, a Kent State game changer or some incident that we can look back and say about Greenwald that this was indeed a pivotal moment on the road to no more freedom of the press and speech. It’s a terrible lost to our Republic when we have a one party press. Like a tin horn Banana Republic. Never a good sign.
    Re: Glenn Greenwald, the man’s resignation letter. They had to rip up not one but a second separate contract for the Intercept to censor him. The first contract they cannot edit whatever he writes (final say) and the second contract says if the Intercept refuses to publish any of his articles, then he is free to share the article to some other media outlet. Wrote for Rollingstone Mag for a long time and left when he found the same stuff going on there. Left them . One Lefty I can respect, right or wrong.
    ———
    ‘Article on Joe and Hunter Biden Censored By The Intercept’
    An attempt to assess the importance of the known evidence, and a critique of media lies to protect their favored candidate, could not be published at The Intercept
    Glenn Greenwald
    Oct 29
    732
    410
    “I am posting here the most recent draft of my article about Joe and Hunter Biden — the last one seen by Intercept editors before telling me that they refuse to publish it absent major structural changes involving the removal of all sections critical of Joe Biden, leaving only a narrow article critiquing media outlets. I will also, in a separate post, publish all communications I had with Intercept editors surrounding this article so you can see the censorship in action and, given the Intercept’s denials, decide for yourselves (this is the kind of transparency responsible journalists provide, and which the Intercept refuses to this day to provide regarding their conduct in the Reality Winner story). This draft obviously would have gone through one more round of proof-reading and editing by me — to shorten it, fix typos, etc — but it’s important for the integrity of the claims to publish the draft in unchanged form that Intercept editors last saw, and announced that they would not “edit” but completely gut as a condition to publication:“……
    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/article-on-joe-and-hunter-biden-censored

    Like

  8. George Rebane Avatar

    Administrivia – please move your discussion of the Biden scandal to either Scattershots or ‘Biden Family Scandal Debunked’. Keep the sandboxes for new or dated and rehashed issues; thanks.

    Like

  9. Walt Avatar

    Scary news on Halloween for the likes of Emery and Stevie.
    The coming nightmare.
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/31/pollsters-warn-flawed-election-day-predictions-people-shocked-shy-hidden-trump-voters/
    “Notable pollsters are cautioning Americans to refrain from getting too comfortable with polling predictions as Election Day approaches, suggesting polls may not account for “shy” or “hidden” Trump voters– those who are largely responsible for President Trump’s upset victory four years ago. In this election, the magnitude of such voters could be even greater.”

    Like

  10. Walt Avatar

    One more think to think about Proggys… The turncoats within your ranks. Plenty of DEMS have been showing up at Trump rallies… And NOT to protest.

    Like

  11. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Barry… if you haven’t read Cynical Theories, get it. You can’t tell the players with old school Marxist tomes.
    And… the guy I am most afraid of is Pete BUttigieg… son of Joseph, founder of the Gramsci Society and translator into English of a number Gramsci’s works. Cultural Marxists at their core, and “Mayor Pete” is on Biden’s transition team.
    Pete B. learned much at the kitchen table.

    Like

  12. Walt Avatar

    Ronna McDaniel: Democrats and Independents Turning out in ‘Droves’ for Trump in Minnesota and Wisconsin
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/31/ronna-mcdaniel-democrats-and-independents-turning-out-in-droves-for-trump-in-minnesota-and-wisconsin/

    Like

  13. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    Greg @ 1212p. That book just made the list. A friend of mine told me to read “The Mew Jim Crowe.” I tried to read it but I only got about two chapters deep and I couldn’t do it anymore. I understand the theory and agree to a certain extent, but some of the historical underpinnings of the author’s theory were just plainly wrong. I grew tired of the historical inaccuracies as they were detracting from the ideas.

    Like

  14. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/education/2020/10/23/some-brown-students-want-white-supremacist-roman-statues-removed/6007113002/
    Pull down Marcus Aurelius and it’s game on.
    We really are living in Saint Leibowitz’s time.
    “Ignorance is king. Many would not profit by his abdication. Many enrich themselves by means of his dark monarchy. They are his Court, and in his name they defraud and govern, enrich themselves and perpetuate their power.” Walter M. Miller – A Canticle for Leibowitz.

    Like

  15. fish Avatar
    fish

    Pull down Marcus Aurelius and it’s game on.
    More importantly pull him down and contract with me to haul him away….wink, wink…!

    Like

  16. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Second chuckel of the day.
    McConnell: Barrett Confirmation ‘Was A Wonderful Birthday Present For Hillary Clinton’
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/mcconnell-barrett-confirmation-was-a-wonderful-birthday-present-for-hillary-clinton

    Like

  17. Walt Avatar

    WOW!!! BOJO has really out did Biden.(Or Biden is riding his coattails)
    https://www.foxnews.com/world/johnson-month-long-lockdown-england
    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a “circuit break” lockdown in England for the month of November as the nation struggles to contain the coronavirus.
    The lockdown will commence Nov. 5 and end Dec. 2, when the country will return to the tiered system based on the latest data.
    At least it’s not a complete shoot on sight order.
    “Residents will be allowed to leave their homes only for essential reasons, such as education, work, shopping and exercise. All non-essential businesses will be closed.
    Pubs, bars and restaurants will close for general service, but can still provide takeaway services.
    Schools, colleges and universities will remain open. “This virus cannot damage our children’s futures more than it already has,” Johson said.
    Yet still less restrictive than Ca.

    Like

  18. Scott O Avatar

    Walt 1:10 – It’s called ‘leading from behind’. Something he learned from Obama. Basically, it’s abdicating leadership and hiding out until the results are in. If it looks good, then claim authority and credit – if it bombs, blame it on some one else.
    The China money power is already showing up. Don’t expect Biden to do anything more than wave his hands and claim he doesn’t want to make anyone angry.

    Like

  19. Scott O Avatar

    scenes 12:50 – Destruction and defacement are the hallmarks of the barbarians.
    Eventually, they will be at the gates. We all know the outcome.

    Like

  20. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    re Mueller Report, last paragraph
    “In the end, none of the warning signs about the Steele dossier and the Clinton campaign’s dirty trick stopped the FBI from continuing its investigation. And the evidence Mueller gathered showing Clinton ties to the smear campaign mostly remained secret until the last few weeks.”
    ——-
    ‘Mueller gathered evidence suggesting DNC, Clinton camp manufactured Russia collusion story’
    Memos show Clinton-DNC effort to tie Trump to Russia began as early as May 2016 in Ukraine, but Mueller didn’t include in final report.
    “Separately, in August 2016, a State Department official named Eric Schultz received from Konstantin Kilimnik — a trusted, longtime source in Kiev — similar intelligence about a Clinton campaign in Ukraine to tie Trump to Russia through Manafort.
    “First, it is definitely HRC and her HQ who launched this shitstorm trying to use construction of “Putin = very bad, Putin = Manafort, Manafort = Trump, therefore Trump = Putin = very bad,” Kilimnik emailed Schultz on Aug. 22, 2016 (around the time the stories that would force Manafort to resign as Trump campaign chairman started emerging).
    Kilimnik was a Ukrainian businessman who worked with Manafort and Gates. He was routinely interviewed as a sensitive source by U.S. officials in the Kiev embassy. State Department officials told Mueller’s team they considered Kilimnik to be one of the few reliable Ukrainians who helped the Obama administration.“
    https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/mueller-gathered-evidence-dnc-clinton-dirty-trick-russia

    Like

  21. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    I bet after Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi is next.
    https://www.facebook.com/PatriotPost/photos/a.82108390913/10157800939730914/?

    Like

  22. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    re: BillT@10:15PM
    Taibbi quite writing online for Rolling Stone and went to Substack in April, Year Zero. We’ll see if he continues pushing the occasional piece to the print magazine.
    It’s smart for these fellas to set up their own brand as people become more accustomed to paying a small tithe and the MSM continues it’s death spiral.
    In other news…
    “Many Seattle protesters arrested are white, from other cities, analysis finds”
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/investigations/analysis-of-seattle-protester-arrests/281-908cad06-29be-408a-9093-3f45941bc039
    “48% of suspects are white
    18% of suspects are black
    28% of cases race was undetermined or not listed
    32% of suspects listed Seattle as hometown”
    So, 68% are from out-of-town. Pretty good organizing for something that’s just an idea.
    I’m afraid that Brother Love’s Travelling Pyromania Show is a real thing.

    Like

  23. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Biden voters doing what comes naturally.
    “Shocking Video from Portland: Rioters recorded while smashing the windows of a business – rioters tried to assault and threatened the cameraman. ”
    https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1322740225886593026
    “On Halloween 2019, a group of six antifa showed up at my family’s home wearing paper print-outs of my face as masks. They tried to break into the house & taunted the security cameras. Portland Police never followed up with me after I reported the incident. ”
    https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1322760913250865152
    “BLM-antifa rioters stole flags from the Washington State Patrol building in Vancouver, Wash. and lit them on fire. They chant about burning every precinct to the ground.”
    https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1322792959251795969
    “Woman who wants to defund the police calls police on Trump supporters because flags scare her.”
    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1322902811760230406

    Like

  24. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    …and finally.
    “If your city is boarding up in preparation for Election Day, then you probably live in a liberal city.”
    https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1322583068213944320

    Like

  25. Walt Avatar

    There is an new game in Texas. Not cowboys and indians this time.
    Conservatives VS Commiecrats… Guess who won?😂👍👌
    Guess who got run out of town.. “Git!!,, Amscray!!”
    Another priceless video!
    https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/31/report-democrats-cancel-texas-campaign-rallies-trump-supporters-swarm-biden-harris-bus/

    Like

  26. Walt Avatar

    Oh.. Here’s another. Trump folk giving the Biden bus an escort into town.
    https://youtu.be/YHAQ0L4tVW4
    They sure are friendly in Texas

    Like

  27. Walt Avatar

    Now we can’t let a certain Nevada City dweller forget who he marched with.
    https://www.breitbart.com/law-and-order/2020/11/01/blm-protesters-block-car-of-disabled-man-harass-and-threaten-him-in-kentucky/
    Great company you keep.

    Like

  28. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Walt: “Oh.. Here’s another. Trump folk giving the Biden bus an escort into town.”
    I’ll bet you a sizable sum that the FBI will get called in to thoroughly investigate the evil Nazi pickup truck flag people. Maybe they can use the same team who thoroughly investigated the Bubba Wallace noose incident.
    Your tax dollars at work.
    Just imagine the number of thorough investigations the FBI would be called on to do under a Harris/Biden administration. Judging from modern college campuses and the Left’s interest in doxxing/cancel culture, keeping one’s head down will be the order of the day.
    There’s a bit of Red Guard in everyone and I’m afraid we know where it’s coming from this time around. Without a bit of counterbalance from the Right and the remants of the sane Left we are screwed.

    Like

  29. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Walt: “Now we can’t let a certain Nevada City dweller forget who he marched with.”
    Why do you think he gives a shit? You do have to admire the bloody mindedness that leads you to a destructive political movement in the middle of an epidemic.
    In order to build a utopian omelette you have to crack a few eggs. That’s always the way it goes down.

    Like

  30. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    I did like this NYTimes tweet and the first response:
    “”Joe Biden has staked his entire campaign on his decency, his moral vision, his old-fashioned belief that one should love thy neighbor as thyself,” ”
    “There’s also his competency, affirmations of democratic principles and institutions, collegiality, empathy, and the belief that public service should not be a vehicle for self enrichment.”
    roflmao.
    Please, for the love of God, either Paul or D can make that case instead of just the steady stream of Trumphate. I’d honestly love to hear a well-reasoned argument.

    Like

  31. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: scenes | 01 November 2020 at 09:14 AM
    I’d honestly love to hear a well-reasoned argument.

    I wouldn’t hold my breath…..

    Like

  32. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    fish: “I wouldn’t hold my breath…..”
    I think we have to let Joe Biden make his own case.
    https://twitter.com/michaelbeatty3/status/1322677590365102081

    Like

  33. Walt Avatar

    Sorry Scenes,,, all you will get is TROLL scours.

    Like

  34. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: scenes | 01 November 2020 at 09:22 AM
    It’s little more than elderly abuse at this point…..

    Like

  35. Walt Avatar

    Well well…. LIB monkey business with? “late votes” gets shot down? But “vote by mail was THEIR idea.
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/klobuchar-reacts-court-ruling-minnesotans-dont-vote-by-mail
    “Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., said that in light of an 8th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling ordering Minnesota ballots received after Election Day to be segregated from other votes, she no longer wants people to vote by mail.”

    Like

  36. Walt Avatar

    LOL!! Proggys are SOOOOOO dramatic. “attempted homicide”
    “This is a traffic violation and attempted homicide. Why hasn’t anyone been arrested?”
    In reference to the “Trump Train” escort of the Proggy bus.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1322566702048153600
    Sorry deary,, we ain’t ANTIFA or Black lies matter.

    Like

  37. fish Avatar
    fish

    America’s Paper of Record commenting on (D)ugsKKKi’s peeps…..

    U.S.—Business owners in Democrat-controlled cities are boarding up in preparation for an onslaught of mostly peaceful demonstrations should Trump win the election Tuesday.
    The real concern is that the party of love and tolerance loses the election.
    “We just want to make sure our businesses will be safe from the sudden outpouring of peace, love, and tolerance,” said one frightened business owner in Los Angeles as he frantically boarded up his hookah lounge. “You know, too much peace can sometimes intensify and end up destroying millions of dollars of property. You know, from all the peace.”
    “Can’t be too careful when there’s roaming bands of people spreading peace.”
    Many business owners are even arming themselves with firearms to protect themselves from all the peace.

    Like

  38. D Avatar

    Trump signs new EO so he can fire employees for disloyalty.
    Then, they head to the re-eduction camps.
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-creating-schedule-f-excepted-service/
    “In creating the new category, called “Schedule F,” Trump would basically take employees whose jobs are nonpolitical and are protected from, for instance, a president who doesn‘t believe science is real, and make them “at will,” while at the same time, giving political appointees the very job protection he’s stripping from civil servants. That would obviously be extremely bad under a scenario in which Trump is elected to a second term—as the Washington Post puts it, “think of the Federal Aviation Administration employee evaluating whether an airliner is safe to fly” or “the Food and Drug Administration employee evaluating the efficacy of a vaccine”—and there isn‘t a single person left in the federal government who is qualified or non-corrupt.”
    “The order…would strip civil service protections from a broad swath of career civil servants if it is decided that they are in “confidential, policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating positions”—a description previously reserved for the political appointees who come and go with each change in administration. It does that by creating a new category for such positions that do not turn over from administration to administration and reclassifying them as part of that category.
    The range of workers who could be stripped of protections and placed in this new category is vast, experts say, and could include most of the non-partisan experts—scientists, doctors, lawyers, economists—whose work to advise and inform policymakers is supposed to be done in a way that is fact-driven and devoid of politics. Trump has repeatedly clashed with such career workers on a variety of settings, ranging from his desire to present the COVID-19 pandemic as largely over, to his attempts to enable his allies to escape punishment for federal crimes, to his quixotic insistence that National Weather Service scientists back up his erroneous claim that the state of Alabama was threatened by a hurricane which was not heading in its direction.”

    Like

  39. D Avatar

    Paper of Record, fish? You mean The Scooper?

    Like

  40. Walt Avatar

    Douchey running out of vinegar? Complaining about how an employee can be dismissed?
    You mean like what happened to you?
    Funny, coming from a dudette who believes rules don’t apply to it.

    Like

  41. Walt Avatar

    Douchey really enjoys the gas lighting the Proggy Press has been giving him. Just look at the gas byproduct he gives off here.

    Like

  42. D Avatar

    Waldoucheyness, Cry baby cry

    Like

  43. George Rebane Avatar

    Do we really continue to believe that there remain non-partisan civil servants who don’t put their finger on the scale when drafting or enforcing regulations to implement government policies?

    Like

  44. Walt Avatar

    LOL Douchey,, Desperation setting in? Bad news Biden going down in flames?
    Nothing of substance out of you except TROLL drool.
    It GREAT that shitty gov. workers get kicked to the curb.
    (like crappy teachers…. Like someone we know)
    Repubs gave us the EPA. Proggys turned it into a tool cripple the economy with.
    Now why don’t you join that idiot in the tree in Nevada City? At the same time complain about PG&E not doing enough.

    Like

  45. robert Cross Avatar
    robert Cross

    who can explain the difference between trump supporters surrounding and harassing a Biden campaign bus in Texas and brown shirts harassing Jewish owned businesses and business owners in pre war Germany?

    Like

  46. Walt Avatar

    OH poor Cross Bobby.. Cry us a river.
    So a Proggy bus was given a peaceful escort. Not one window cracked. Not even an attempt to run it off the road.
    Can the same be said for the JEWS you bring up? Trying to make Hitler look good?
    Now how bout this A-HOLE?
    https://www.foxnews.com/us/portland-anti-capitalism-protest-declared-riot-windows-smashed-cops-targeted
    “Police declared a march against capitalism and police violence a riot in Portland, Oregon, after demonstrators smashed the windows of businesses and threw projectiles at cops.”
    What did those businesses do to them?
    Your silence will be golden.(as always when it’s your LIBshit verman doing the damage.)
    That must be just fine with you since you never have a CROSS word to say about it.

    Like

  47. Walt Avatar

    OK,, Your boy “O” just ain’t what he used to be.
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/01/watch-barack-obama-suffers-microphone-malfunction-while-addressing-tens-of-supporters/
    “Barack Obama Suffers Microphone Malfunction While Addressing Tens of Supporters”
    Yup,, that’s election winning at it best.

    Like

  48. roberty Cross Avatar
    roberty Cross

    In the ‘put your money where your mouth is’ category: trump must think he will lose as he isn’t putting any of his own money into the campaign. In 2016 he posted up $10 million in the last days of the campaign for last minute ad buys. This year no personal last minute cash. “We’re very smart with our money. We don’t frivolously spend it, and we don’t need to have the president cut a personal check. That’s unnecessary,” Lara Trump said.
    I guess, at this point, the trump Org. thinks investing in the Don is a frivolous bad business decision. Even though Biden has twice as much money to spend in battleground states the ‘smart with their money’ trump’s aren’t going to pony up a dime. Have they given up?

    Like