Rebane's Ruminations
June 2018
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George Rebane

The baby boomer retirement tsunami is in full swing, and the number of working age Americans whose efforts will support the rapidly growing population of retireds is shrinking at an alarming rate.  Some significant verbiage expanding on the problem is available in ‘A Generation of Americans Is Entering Old Age the Least Prepared in Decades’.  Given what we know today, the following charts tell the quantitative side of the story.

OldAgeDependency2
But what really struck me is the graphic below showing the entire country’s aging ratio (more here).  The arithmetically and geographically astute will note that in Nevada County during the last seven years we have gone from almost one-in-three seniors (above 64) to about one-in-two residents of working age (18-64).  This is more than a 50% increase in this ratio, the impact of which is really not appreciated by our local political leaders in the sense that we don’t know how much cash the retirees are importing into our community versus how much of our local services they depend on to live their lives – i.e. how much cash are they pulling out.

OldAgeDependencyThis data again gives lie to the local loony lefties who frequently celebrate the myth that Nevada County with its population in stasis is turning younger (the hordes with LA and SF values replace exiting younger middle class workers), and that the older generation hereabouts is on its way out.  As shown above, the reality is the other way around, as I have vainly attempted to educate the ineducable by explaining to them the workings of ingress and egress rates.  Actually, our exiting ‘native’ middle class workers are being replaced with a constant influx of people with LA and SF values who have soiled their previous nests and promise the same here.  But at the same time our remaining workforce of baby boomers is aging and now replace, at an ever greater rate, the oldsters who are either escaping socialist California for greener pastures or the great beyond.

In any event, the only mitigation of this looming national social catastrophe is a vibrant and growing economy (aka capitalism, entrepreneurship, development), something that the globalist progressives with their grassroots echo chambers are dead set against, since such a state of affairs will work counter to their fervent belief in a big government command economy as the epitome of a social justice delivered.  Whatever your politics, from time to time it pays to review the data tracking this social dynamic.

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One response to “The Old-age Dependency Train Wreck”

  1. Russ Steele Avatar
    Russ Steele

    As I posted in a previous comment, people leaving the urban blight of coastal cities to seek more security and new opportunities are not coming to Nevada County, they are choosing other Sierra Counties, Placer and El Dorado were mentioned in the study I reference, and Central Valley communities even Sacramento. Three years ago Joel Kotkin at an ERC sponsored event explained what it would take to attract those leaving urban areas for Nevada County and little if anything has been done to create the housing and the required broadband. Many would be bring their jobs with them if they could find affordable housing suitable for young families and broadband access suitable for remote commerce. The Linden Ave development was a move in the right direction and the opposition was immediate. No longer on the Transportation Commission I do not have insight into development activities in the County. If I am misinformed perhaps readers can set the recorded straight. Who actions have the County and Cites take to implement the strategies that Joel Kotkin presented to the community.

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