Rebane's Ruminations
January 2015
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[OK, it's that time of the year again for the major entertainment event of winter (and here you thought it was SuperBowl) when President Obama tells us again how the country's ills will be cured by taxing the rich and redistributing to the poor, er, middle class.  Tomorrow night's the night, brace yourself with an abundant serving of your favorite adult beverage.  And not to worry if you miss it; we are told that the half-life of a State of the Union speech is about five minutes.]

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136 responses to “Sandbox – 19jan15”

  1. Paul Emery Avatar

    There are pleqanty of “jobs” here Walt and they involve marijuana cultivation, by far our biggest industry. When MJ becomes legal in 16 we could be positioned to be a main producer of a legal consumer commodity but the so called ‘conservatives” are committed to destroy that potential. What a hypocrisy, to oppose government ‘regulations” and destroy our best chance for a prosperous future in our rural county which has no replacement for the thousands of jobs that will be eliminated.

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  2. L Avatar
    L

    Paul, do you really think that a thousand other counties in the US aren’t thinking exactly the same thing? That your morons will actually be more efficient than the others, to prosper in this endeavor? No “best chance” on offer here.
    Only a sensible application of capitalism will work on this. L

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  3. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Paul, we already are positioned to become A major producer of a legal commodity. Unfortunately, the market is flooded and it is a buyers market. Producing more will only add to the dropping price of said commodity. You can have the best doohickey in the land, but if you can’t sell it to the mass market, what good is the widget? There is more than one county here in the Golden State and the Emerald Triangle has already cornered the San Fransisco market.
    Without reliable buyers and outlets of your legal commodity, you might as well be selling your oranges and strawberries on the street corner.
    What do you call a product that isn’t sold to the mass market? A niche market. Or, a Mom & Pop garage industry. Major producers from outside our hill country have mega bucks, mega experience in distribution, and major backing and expertise from seed to consumer. Yep, we be just a niche market here while errorously believing the world will beat a path to our door. It’s a competitive market out there in the real world. Big fish eat little fish as snacks.

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  4. fish Avatar
    fish

    Busted!
    4 Responses to High school students hammer Fox News on ethics
    Windy says:
    January 24, 2015 at 6:25 pm
    Here’s a project I’d love to see at all of our local high schools. Senior Government and Economics classes fact checking FOX, MSNBC, NYTimes and WSJournal. Such critical thinking exercises need an education foundation that needs to begin with a good grounding in English critical thinking exercises and civics starting in or around 6th grade.
    Roger Ales admitted that most all FOX contributors “make stuff up.” FOX spends very little on real investigative journalism. Why make a good argument when you can make stuff up?
    Reply
    Chris Bishop says:
    January 24, 2015 at 8:30 pm
    Here’s a project I’d love to see at all of our local high schools since I’ve worked here since 1989. I would love any and all to fact check the Board of Education (both County and District), the Superintendents (both County and District), the site administration of your school. Such critical thinking exercises need an education foundation that needs to begin with a good grounding in SCIENCE critical thinking exercises and civics starting in or around 6th grade.
    Roger Ales admitted that most all FOX contributors “make stuff up.” FOX spends very little on real investigative journalism. Why make a good argument when you can make stuff up?
    Reply
    joe smith says:
    January 24, 2015 at 8:57 pm
    Phew! Will the real Windy please stand up. As Jeff would say, “You can’t make this stuff up”, LOL. Thank God for Grab. These two posts are on my clipboard and my reply and ready for reposting on alternative sites if JP once again refuses to post my reply.
    Reply
    jeffpelline says:
    January 24, 2015 at 10:29 pm
    “Joe Smith,” AKA “maiduacorn@hotmail.com”
    You can’t make this stuff up!
    Reply
    I don’t know jeffy…….I guess you can make this stuff up after all!

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  5. fish Avatar
    fish

    Now the only question is….is “Chris Bishop” a real person or do jeffys sockpuppets have their sockpuppets of their own?

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  6. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Paul, the only reason small scale MJ cultivation pays more than growing beans or cauliflower are the really high prices users are willing to pay because it still ain’t exactly legal and it’s more fun than eggplant. If MJ continues a march towards being legal, the prices to the producer will fall until it is in line with the cost of production. The guvmint will levy taxes to make sure they’re skimming from the top and from the bottom.
    Long term, it’s a loser for the average stoner farmers. Just a small cash crop for Ma and Pa to bring in a little extra money along with the chickens and the eggs, and to give the marinara just a bit more zing.
    fish, FUE contributor Chris Bishop is a chemistry teacher at NUHS.

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  7. fish Avatar
    fish

    fish, FUE contributor Chris Bishop is a chemistry teacher at NUHS.
    …and it would appear “windy” as well!

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  8. Walt Avatar

    Paul may want to go see what Colorado has now admitted to. ” legalizing MJ was a BIG mistake”. Flooded with deadbeats looking for the legal high, now on the state dole?
    Employees getting fired for drug use has now doubled? Hummmm Dope has done more damage than good…. Even the banks are not taking money from the drug trade.
    And form some unknown reason as others have already pointed out, Paul thinks Nevada Co. will have exclusive rights to weed sales and production. Sorry dude N.C. is special.
    That same plant cane be grown ANYWHERE. Once legalized, instead of 45 bucks an eighth, try 45 cents a pound. Go make a profit on that.
    Reopening the mines will look a LOT better to the County. ( it should already)
    BTW,, shooting for the dopeUmentery should be starting this week. ( well the pilot,, at least) On the bright side, some money should be coming in for the filming permits.
    So wait for the big pot leaf to be painted on the Del Oro wall. Maybe that will be the opening shot we see on the boob tube.

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  9. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Big pot leaf on the Del Oro? I am not opposed to that as long as it covers up the mural. Keep the old fashioned meter reader to tell the grandkids that in the old days meter readers had to get out of their trucks.
    Washington State legal farms are feeling the pain. 179 retail outlets allowed, but only 85 opened because of expense, regulations, and massive checks and balances and paperwork. Plus many communities are saying to retail permit holders “not in our town.” Has to go on the outskirts with the nudey bars, if allowed at all. So, with too few retail outlets, the growers can’t dump enough of their product and make a profit because every stage of farm to retail is regulated, adding to the expense, not to mention the hefty taxes above and beyond. In addition, growers have to prove they have places to sell before they grow on the Sunnybrooke farms.
    Last year growers got 23 bucks a gram, this year 4 bucks a gram if they can find a buyer. If they can find an outlet, they are selling below cost.
    Not a matter of production, it’s a matter of finding a good market and forming a good relationship with the retailers. Growing pains.
    Like Walt said, you can take a seed from Red China or Thailand or Panama or Burma and grow it anywhere. Don’t take a rocket scientist to figure that one out.

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  10. Paul Emery Avatar

    Bill, Gregory
    MJ cultivation probably brings in 200 Million annually to Nevada County. That may be an underestimation. That’s not exactly chump change. It seems NC growers are doing pretty good at finding markets. Can you imagine the economic hit if that were eliminated?

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  11. Paul Emery Avatar

    From a local study on the economic value to NC.
    “But even when Keene averaged the years when only smaller-scale seizures took place, the figures are still staggering — from a low average of $106 million to a high of $640 million being generated by marijuana in this county, between 2008 and 2013.”
    http://www.theunion.com/news/14613687-113/study-looks-to-quantify-nevada-countys-pot-economy

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  12. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 531pm – I was hoping you’d address the questions and comments regarding the county’s MJ fortunes when RMJ starts enjoying open markets supplied by large, efficient, low cost growers. Just responding with crickets and continuing to sing the dubious glories of yesteryear county economics makes it sound like you are ignoring some strong doses of reality. But what the hell, tell us once more how much money everyone has made growing MJ on the happy hillsides of Nevada County – it always brings a tear to me eye.

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  13. Paul Emery Avatar

    George
    Those numbers are current and do not reflect the “dubious glories of yesteryear”.

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  14. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 548pm – Dodged it again; damn you’re good! These claimed revenues are the glories of yesteryear and perhaps they even continue to this day. The reason I used ‘dubious’ is that there is no formal accounting for those monies. They are all brown numbers pulled out this guy’s or that gal’s ass. But no doubt the cash flow has been significant for the county’s merchants.
    Now, would you care to get back to the topic I reminded you of in my 544pm? There we are talking about the future economics of the national MJ markets after wholesale legalization.

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  15. Russ Steele Avatar

    paul@05:48
    When MJ is legal, standard economics will take control of the market. To help you understand supply and demand take a look at the section two of this economics course.
    http://mruniversity.com/courses/principles-economics-microeconomics/introduction-microeconomics

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  16. Walt Avatar

    Whoever paid for the current mural sure got short changed and screwed. I bitched about it from day one. And it seems I’m not alone. Ya’ need a set of eye pieces just to view it.
    Yaa,,, it sucks. A pot leaf would still look better. Give a few kids a good bag and some spray cans and the work would be done over night. ( and still be better and done cheaper)
    Gotta love Paul’s sphincter economics report on weed. Please supply the spread (cheeks?)sheet that reflect those numbers. ( Two ply quilted will do)
    Ya’ really think prices will hold the high (bong)water mark when rec. MJ is there for the toking?
    Someone has taken one too many tabs of LSD to believe that.
    And just why should the County care to have the distinction of staying afloat on the sales of an illegal drug? That’s no badge of honor. It’s a disgrace.
    So Paul,, just where are all those “high tech” manufacturing jobs that were promised that “would come here” by the anti IMM claim jumpers?
    That was the grand sales pitch to run IMM out of town. Something else was going to take it’s place… Do tell… OHHhhhooooo.. So illegal dope is it? Those jobs are trimigrants?
    There is no pot farm on that property yet,, what gives? Those silos are not full of ready to sell, top quality buzz,, what gives?

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  17. Paul Emery Avatar

    George
    National legalization is still years away, especially with the Repubs are in control of Congress, so any discussion is hypothetical on prices etc. What is real is the likely recreational legalization in California in 16′.
    When that happens, as it likely will, rural Counties such as Nevada County will have an opportunity to influence cultivation and distribution policies and if they were smart, which I doubt they are, they would encourage cultivation as a legitimate cottage industry with sensible regulations. The fact that the economic impacts of cultivation are totally ignored by our so called financial planners is testimony enough of the ignorance that drives our local government.

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  18. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 1006pm – This is not a debate about when and where MJ production and consumption becomes legal. We both believe that some day it will happen. And there is nothing “hypothetical” about market economics when RMJ is produced and distributed as a legitimate product (well, perhaps it is to socialists who have a deficit in these matters). Your vision of a viable NC cottage industry in MJ has no feasible basis in such a market. That doesn’t mean that some people will not grow their own weed, but trying to sell it for a profit will be next to impossible. It will be like a small machine shop making a car and then trying compete with the Big 3 on price and performance.

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  19. Paul Emery Avatar

    So George your vision is a rather bleak view of the economic future of Nevada County. What do you see as the economic effects of losing such a valuable component of our rather shaky local economy? What could possibly be a substitute for those thousands of residents dependent on cultivation as their primary income or a major part of their retail or services businesses? The sheer impact on our schools will be devastating losing so many young families with no other means of income. Should Nevada County Government do a study on what those impacts will be as part of a realistic look at our future economy?

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  20. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Pot will be a source of supplemental cab fare for the thousands already on disability and food stamps. gregory is right. It will give the growers a little money for their Christmas fund, which they will spend at K-Mart and the Fur Traders, and a couple tanks of gas to get through the winter. Hardware stores do make money selling those big plastic tubs and turkey oven bags left over from Thanksgiving.
    No one is denying there is currently an economic benefit to the County for growing the commodity. The growers themselves say that MMJ and RMJ will cut their legs off at the knees. Ocur famous Trimmigrants got paid cash daily. Notice the word “got” in the past tense. This year some are getting some cash for a few days, then have to wait for their payday. What does that tell ya? As the market evolves, some trimimgrates are now being paid by the pound, not the hour. That is only fair cause why should laborer X who is a faster worker get paid the same as laborer Y who is less productive.
    Yes, it does pay more than the yearly part time job working the fairgrounds at the County Fair, another source of income many on food stamps count on each year for their Christmas fund or a couple tanks of gas.
    In a changing evolving industry, only those who change with it will prosper. Otherwise, we will all be sitting around sharing stories about the good old days when Dad was the single bread winner, Mom stayed at home with the kids and the single blue collar bread winner could buy a house, a shiny car, and take the kids to Disneyland.

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  21. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 114pm – Your prognostication about NC’s economic future could be correct in the way that you position it. But we have no reliable data about the problem. But being an old systems guy still in the game, I do believe that our county government should commission a study of the current/recent benefit of MJ grows to Nevada County, and the economic impact of such grows diminishing when MJ becomes legally industrialized in the state. There are no numbers about this potential socio-economic problem, save perhaps the heaps of brown numbers bandied about which derive their color from their source.

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  22. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    To: George and all of you who wrongfully believe money is speech and corporations are people.
    You complain that too much energy is concentrated on the Kock Brothers who inherited their wealth not earned it. The very thing our founders were very wary of in individuals and what Thomas Jefferson called pseudo/ artificial aristocracy or corporations.
    “The artificial aristocracy is a mischievous ingredient in government, and provision should be made to prevent its ascendancy. On the question, what is the best provision, you and I differ; but we differ as rational friends, using the free exercise of our own reason, and mutually indulging its errors. You think it best to put the pseudo-aristoi into a separate chamber of legislation [the Senate], where they may be hindered from doing mischief by their coordinate branches, and where, also, they may be a protection to wealth against the agrarian and plundering enterprises of the majority of the people. I think that to give them power in order to prevent them from doing mischief, is arming them for it, and increasing instead of remedying the evil.
    – Thomas Jefferson to John Adams, October 28, 1813
    Hopefuls try out at ‘Koch primary’
    http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20150121/ARCHIVES/501211038?tc=ar
    “Pence played to the sense that much of the event was an early tryout for 2016.”
    http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-mike-pence-koch-brothers-summit-20140829-story.html
    Since money can be spent by dark money groups without oversight it is becoming more and more possible for disgusting people like the Koch’s to buy the government away from the American people, which has happened to a large degree already. That is why people are so unhappy with our government and the global economic system for so long.
    Oligarchy, government by the few, especially despotic power exercised by a small and privileged group for corrupt or selfish purposes.- Encyclopedia Britannica
    In 2016 I will be supporting Bernie Sanders (I)VT for President. If my and my family health are up to it I will be running for congress again. As we’ve seen in Greece last night, BRICS nations, and the never ending protests going on around the world the people are getting very close to the tipping point of a complete economic global revolution. I want to continue to be part of that fight and being on the correct side of history.

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  23. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    This link was supposed to be part of 26 January 2015 at 09:37 AM
    To Counter Rise of Oligarchy, Sanders Pitches Progressive Economic Vision
    Amid speculation over 2016 presidential run, senator from Vermont lays out 12-step plan to combat 40-year decline of middle class and rampant inequality
    http://www.commondreams.org/news/2014/12/02/counter-rise-oligarchy-sanders-pitches-progressive-economic-vision

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  24. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Ben Emery | 26 January 2015 at 09:37 AM
    Ben….how is it possible that “90% of the American People agree with your positions” and yet all these bad outcomes still occur? The Greeks just threw off the chains of the oligarchical corporate banking masters….sure for a socialistic “Judean Peoples Front”….or was that the “Peoples Front of Judea”…..I lose track….government that will likely fail to deliver what they promised but they did it! Why can’t you and the 284 million people who so vigorously agree with you manage to turn the tide?

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  25. Walt Avatar

    Paul can’t see the forest through the trees. “big” MJ will get laws past to make damned sure “mamma and Pappa” dope grower can’t grow and sell. That’s the way it will be. (and already going down in Co. and OR.)
    Why hire trimigrants when there is a machine to do the same job? ( locally designed and made I might ad)
    Nice crickets Paul on where all that tech industry is, after IMM got shown the door.
    Funny how George B. hinted about that in today’s rag. He just has a different take.
    And Noo,,, tourism will never save the County.

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  26. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Ben, one problem I see with your analysis is that it completely leaves out the corporations that control the state of California… public employee unions, and they not only get what they want but they do it with the tax money their annointed election politicians raise from the people whose votes they have purchased.
    The Kochs are in the bottom half of the list of top 100 political spenders; that they are on the top of the bitch list of regressive Progressives tells us more about Progressives than it tells us about the Kochs. The top two political givers, the SEIU and ActBlue, together spend about 16 times the amount Koch Industries spends. This isn’t anything new for you, Ben, and I’m sure you’ll continue to ignore it.
    Paul, if MJ is legalized in California it will be with massive taxes on grows, because that’s what the California legislature does. They will favor large grows that can be watched and effectively taxed with comparatively few taxmen required to keep a handle on it. Ma and Pa Stoner will not be a major part of the equation.

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  27. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    Unions are special interests just as much as corporations. In our current economic system unions are a must if we want a balanced economy that all people from the janitor to the CEO that allows them a decent living. Nothing will switch over night unless we want a complete disaster. When the switch to a more cooperative, decentralized, and regional economic system is complete the need for Labor Unions disappears. When Labor is a guaranteed member of the board and decision making. A more horizontal system instead of a vertical hierarchical system.
    As for the Koch’s spending. They spend millions annually on think tanks, front groups, candidate tryouts, high end business junkets, propaganda, ect…. that isn’t factored into the equation of political spending. Also in all these dark money super pac’s we don’t know where the money is coming from?

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  28. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    The top two corporate givers give 16 times as much as the Kochs, yet you keep coming back to the Kochs. What is that, Ben?
    You have to get down the list to #56, Koch, in order to get to the first lopsided giver to GOP causes on the corporate list (and yes, it includes other givings). In other words, Ben, you aren’t against lopsided giving to politicians, you’re just against lopsided givers to the GOP. You’re a bloody hypocrite or blind. Maybe both.

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  29. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    Fish,
    Haven’t you been paying attention, 90% of the people don’t determine the policies of our country. Those who finance our two major political parties do. The people just to the grunt busy work to feel like we have some say in our governmental policies. Just take the TARP program and the Republican Bush administration and the Democratic controlled congress, hmm its inverted of today’s government but we have the same results.
    Lets revisit 2008 for a second. I tried to retrieve some of the polls and surprise they are either scrubbed (404 error)from the internet or difficult to find.
    What I can gather from an archive of my emails to about 200 people around the country in 2008. According to a Gallup Poll when the shit was hitting the fan 60% of Americans opposed the bailouts of the banks and congress was responding with voting down the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008(TARP) first time around. They went back to their corporate headquarter offices in DC and got an ear full and huge lobbying money from the financial sector to change their minds. Despite being very unpopular to the American people the second vote it passed.
    Masses aren’t buying bailout
    Indignant Americans stage protests, deluge congressional offices.
    September 26, 2008
    http://articles.latimes.com/2008/sep/26/business/fi-voxpop26
    A less scientific but more expansive poll.
    Should the U.S. have bailed out the major banks during the financial crisis of 2008? http://www.isidewith.com/poll/965657
    Then we have the Public Option in the ACA.
    Anywhere from 60-75% of those polled wanted a public option. Democrats used the issue as a bargaining chip trying to get the Republican votes needed for passage of the bill. Republicans are more interested in sabotaging instead of good governance. The lack of the public option and the forced purchase from the private sector is what I and the 28% of 53% that opposed the ACA on its final vote were and are angry about.
    Here is a poll in the 70% plus range.
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-most-back-public-health-care-option/
    We do not have a representative democratic government we have an oligarchy or corporatist government that ensures big industry bottom lines.

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  30. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Ben Emery | 26 January 2015 at 11:40 AM
    Haven’t you been paying attention, 90% of the people don’t determine the policies of our country.
    Then why this near obsession of yours with mass democracy? There should be, using the numbers your yourself provide, more than enough “people power” to reclaim control of our collective destinies. Yet the electorate (again who you claim endorse the majority of your admittedly socialistic policies) seems to be getting increasingly conservative? Status quo 4evah! it seems!
    …and when given the opportunity to personally endorse an action that would really crack the nut of the banking/political complex…….by letting the banking system fail…..you defer….because it would cause “suffering”.
    I guess I’m not seeing your “big picture” again.

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  31. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    Greg,
    I know you want to make me a bad guy but oppose Labor Unions being able to donate to political parties as well. I want public financed elections for public offices. financed by a $10 federal and $5 state democracy tax in every IRS 150 million tax returns to fund elections. Campaign spending caps, which doesn’t surpress freedom of speech but limits the amplifier effect each candidate can have. Doesn’t mean a candidate can’t stop speaking freely but has to manage their amplification to be most effective.

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  32. George Rebane Avatar

    BenE 1039am – I trust that your sense of fair play will kick in when labor is a “guaranteed member of the Board”, in that they will also be guaranteed to bear a commensurate measure of the financial risk in the fortunes of the company. If the commensurate part is puzzling, I could give you several algos on how to compute the dollar amounts that the workers would bear when

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  33. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Ben Emery | 26 January 2015 at 11:55 AM
    Did you just call for a “Poll Tax”???
    In the United States, payment of a poll tax was a prerequisite to the registration for voting in a number of states. The tax emerged in some states of the United States in the late 19th century as part of the Jim Crow laws. After the right to vote was extended to all races by the enactment of the Fifteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, a number of states enacted poll tax laws as a device for restricting voting rights.
    George….you may want to file this under: Ben Emery comes out in favor of Jim Crow laws.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_tax_(United_States)

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  34. George Rebane Avatar

    fish 136pm – Our brethren on the Left have a poor understanding of our world’s connectedness epitomized by the system’s dictum – ‘You can’t just do one thing.’ BenE’s goodhearted effort in his 1155am is indeed a new form of poll tax. How it will be applied across the economic classes was not specified, but one can already anticipate that certain favored classes will not have to pay it and still get to vote. This brings to mind Christ’s beseeching from the cross, ‘Father forgive them for they know not what they do.’

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  35. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    On the flip side of Brother Ben’s tax and spend proposal, it would thus be illegal for me exercise my God given freedoms and rights to put my money where my mouth is. We need a new Constitution without the 1st Amendment for my dear Brothet’s scheme to come to fruition. I believe some just cannot grasp the concept that rights do not come from Washington.

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