[A lot more news about the candidates (and other issues) is coming out every day besides that which can be connected to voter fraud. Please extend your discussions of these to the fresh Sandbox. gjr]

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George Rebane
OK boys and girls, things have gotten rotten in the Murdoch media empire. I’ve been pissing and moaning about Fox News for months now (always did have my gimlet eye trained on them) as their news coverage and copy kept drifting, now visibly sliding, toward lamestream journalism. Their ‘fair, balanced, and unafraid’ has always brought out a chuckle in me and mine, but today the ‘unafraid’ part is an out-and-out farce – they are very afraid of straying too far from the progressive narrative. (As I’ve noted many times before, ‘fair’ and ‘balanced’ has always been a fool’s errand that only convinces the naïfs.) For lack of a better target, I blame the entire transformation on Rupert’s liberal son Lachlan now in charge of their news outlets. The even more liberal son James has already departed Fox because it still wouldn’t follow the leftwing narrative well enough, especially the coverage and promotion of climate change (i.e. preventable manmade global warming). So now the cat is out of the bag. Once daddy left the business to his sons, things immediately started listing to port.
FN’s and FB’s stalwarts like Bret Baier and Neil Cavuto have already tossed in the towel and joined their liberal colleague Chris Wallace and former colleague Shepard Smith in how they select and wordsmith their news reports and interviews – today the prematurely departed Smith would feel very much at home at FN. But the real canaries in the Murdoch media mine are conservative stalwarts like Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, and Laura Ingraham (and maybe even Jesse Watters). If any of them start leaving FN, then that network’s turn to the dark side is a done deal.
It would be interesting to see where such conservative commentarians would take their established brands. Newsmax is an obvious destination. And there are more conservative streaming news outlets available like Glenn Beck and Bill O’Reilly’s new homes that would get a tremendous viewership boost if they garnered any of FN’s big three. And now we’re starting to hear rumors that a former president Donald Trump may again be in the business of starting his own news network or buying into an existing one and turning it into Trump TV (more here).
To all this I will add our country’s losing fight with the First Amendment as the forces of darkness continue to throttle free speech and religious liberties. A significant telltale about the ‘progress’ of progressives in this arena was SCOTUS Justice Alito’s recent speech to the Federalist Society on these topics of America’s freedoms. (more here, here, here, and here)
Exciting times ahead as the nation starts its foreplay with socialism after Biden’s inauguration. I’m hoping that our intrepid RR readers, who seem to know all that’s happening on the web, will keep the rest of us informed as to the best post-Fox destinations on cable or online.
[14nov20 update] Bill Whittle at Instapundit.com delivers the first of a multi-part series (here) on the downfall of America’s media and the particulars of how the election was impacted by their fake news and daily streams of lies. (H/T to reader)
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George Rebane
[This is the updated transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 11 November 2020.]
‘We follow the science’ has been heard across the land for some months now, mostly from shady politicians, but also from politicians of all shades. This pompous and gratuitous claim is put out primarily to shut off further debate about whatever issue that is sheltered under the science umbrella. The politician or media talking head knows that his audience is woefully unprepared to understand, let alone contest, any proposition so couched.
The effectiveness of this kind of communication hinges on the level of numeracy enjoyed by our population at large. Numeracy is the mathematical partner of literacy. Numeracy is the analog of literacy – communication by letters and words – in the sense that the numerate person can understand every day issues involving arithmetic calculation, basic logic, chance, utility, elements of finance, graphical presentation of information, the scientific process, and ability to think critically. As a person does not have to be a professional wordsmith to be literate, then also a person need not be a professional in the mathematically based disciplines to be considered numerate. Numeracy is just another arrow, albeit a very important one, that an educated person has in his quiver. Innumeracy, like illiteracy, is the converse of having such tools at your disposal.
Adult innumeracy is the longstanding and silent scourge of our country and of our times as confirmed by longitudinal surveys done by the Dept of Education. Americans are overwhelmingly innumerate, with about 1 out of 20 of us having the skills of a numerate layman. In a liberal democracy the importance of voter numeracy is based on a simple truth – ALL social issues in our community and across the land are significant only because of their descriptive numbers. And without the ability to process those numbers, we really don’t understand the issue and can only emote about it.
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George Rebane
To describe what is going on with this election as hanky-panky is to diminish what appears as the first verifiable assault on the seminal institution that we use to maintain our democratic republic – the right and practice of franchised citizens to regularly impact the governance of their country.
Evidence is pouring in from all quarters about voter fraud, evidence that has been filed by poll workers, poll watchers, and witnesses who have provided sworn affidavits and statements – punishable as perjury if falsified – of a wide spectrum of illegal and criminal activities taking place at polling places and vote counting centers. Enough of this has been happening to cause the DoJ to order all US attorneys across the land to begin investigating these allegations.
Last night on FN Tucker Carlson went through a litany of some of the evidence that the US attorneys will be looking at (here). (Odd that FN has pulled this commentary from its site.) You don’t have to be a fan of Carlson to note the factual content of his commentary, confirm it yourself, and compare it with what you’ve seen on the lamestream. An important part of the data that is now a matter of record is the history of grossly inaccurate polling results with which the country has been blanketed in the weeks leading up to the election.
It turns out that the polls across the board were grossly wrong in favor of Joe Biden. The more important impact of such erroneous polling was how they influenced the vote. University of Michigan (here) and McGill University (here) have done studies of this which delineate how polls favoring this or lambasting that affect voter attitudes. In America our polls were off, sometimes hundreds of percents and of opposite polarity, for electoral contests ranging from the president to the states’ down-ticket candidates and issues. And for some odd reason, they were overwhelmingly in error toward the Left. This was similar to the late-discovered ballots and mail-ins arriving at vote counting centers that defied voting demographics, voting history, and elementary statistics in their one-sidedness (more here and here). And we haven’t yet come to the vote changing software (here) that people have alleged was used (and exposed unintentionally on CNN (here) where Trump’s vote count goes down the precise amount that Biden’s went up before the cutaway from the scene).
All the Dems and lamestream outlets are ostracizing the closer examination of this election's fraud, claiming that, no matter if true, none of what has been reported is enough to change the election's outcome. That in itself may well be false because the actual validations and recounts have not been completed. But the logic of the admonition itself is grossly faulty, for it assumes that all the fraud discovered to date is all that there is. Nothing could be further from the truth. (For the technically inclined, consider the individual allegations as a sequence of events in a minimally known process. Then compute the probability that the process ended with its most recent event. To help you do this Download TN2011-1_DiscreteEventR-Gprobs )
The greater impact of this on our institutions and ultimately on Americans’ trust in their country’s electoral processes is summarized by Victor Davis Hanson (here). The bottom line is that we are done as a liberal democracy once the people no longer believe in elections or that their legal votes matter.
[11nov20 update] There is now a chorus of commentators on various media outlets (yes, even some liberal ones) who correctly opine about completing the investigations of the numerous reported election irregularities and alleged voter fraud around the country. What our Left predictably pooh-poohs as rightwing sour grapes, and tells to “suck it up” and get on with it will not work in the country’s longer-term polity. We have lost faith in the election process as it now stands. There are at least half of us in America who want the reported incidents of malfeasance resolved, one way or the other, before trust is restored in our elections. A democratic republic cannot continue to function under liberal governance once its elections are seen by a major fraction of its citizenry as corrupt and corruptible. The natural progression of such a state of affairs is to a strong-arm autocracy.
The truth of the matter, not considered by today’s light thinkers, is that the Left will be equally put out again when they lose another major election. I say ‘again’ because they were maximally put out for years after Hillary lost in 2016, and showed the country how they could disrupt, not only the duly elected administration, but also the rest of the federal government. These progressives and their militant radicals not only rejected the legitimacy of the election, they also rejected the findings of the many subsequently launched investigations that failed to find their claimed faults – and they hold these beliefs to this day. For them, the Republicans remain guilty as alleged.
So yes, we have to let Team Trump and the other involved federal and state level investigative agencies complete the process to either sanitize the recent election, or declare that it was not soiled in the first place. At that time we’ll all have to suck it up, bid good-bye to Donald Trump, and accept Joe Biden as our new fearless leader (while continuing to keep a gimlet eye on the sumbich until his influence peddling family affairs are resolved AND he renounces the emerging communist wing of the Democratic Party).
[15nov20 update] Now we have a fairly complete recounting of the provenance of Hammer/Scorecard and how it came to be applied to the current election. The testimony is "according to whistleblower Dennis Montgomery, who was granted immunity by the DoJ and the FBI for exposing illegal US domestic surveillance." (H/T to reader and more here)
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George Rebane
'We don't want to go where you want to take us.' – the fundamental reason for no possibility of common ground.
The uncensored part of the web is buzzing about developing evidence on how the Trump vote scorecard got hammered during the past week. Actually, a whistleblower has come forward who describes the use of two data manipulation programs, Hammer and Scorecard, that have been used internationally and were used to modify data during transmission from the voting precincts to the central vote collecting servers. This cleverly designed software modifies data on the fly during transmission so that the process is essentially undetectable under normal circumstances. FB’s Lou Dobbs with Flynn lawyer Sydney Powell and Tom Fitton of Judicial Watch broke the story here.
Here are some initial factors that bear on the entire investigation into what may turn out to be the largest national voter fraud case in history. A lot is developing.
- Statistically impossible tranches of uncounted votes, ALL favoring Biden, turned up during the week to make Trump’s lead vanish. I pointed out early that this was statistically impossible; now this argument is being picked on the national conservative media. The lamestream, of course, continues to be silent.
- The DoJ and FBI have finally become involved in these investigations.
- The continued silence of the Republican Party on the matter is puzzling. The most influential sites of potential voter fraud are in the battleground states – Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan – all of which have both of their legislative houses controlled by Republicans. These legislatures have the power to investigate and determine the make-up of the electors who will represent the states in the Electoral College.
- The Hammer and Scorecard whistleblower has been identified and will aid in the investigation. Apparently the vote transmission logs exist for the node-to-node data pathways, and they can be forensically examined by our intelligence services for any hanky-panky that the vote counts may have suffered in transmission.
Our readers will, of course, look into this and also provide reports which I’ll summarize here.
[Update] That all such discoveries as Hammer and Scorecard may have no effect on the conduct of national affairs is to me very likely, given, say, the impact of three major issues – 1) the Joe Biden video of firing the Burisma investigator, 2) the total denial and burial of the Hunter Biden influence peddling emails, and 3) the months-long allegations of C19 response mismanagement by Trump. The proper (and historical) treatment of any one of these by our Fourth Estate would have instantly, and I do mean instantly, derailed the Harris/Biden campaign.
Our nation ignoring the clear video evidence of Joe admitting and bragging about how he got the Ukrainian prosecutor investigating the Burisma corruption scandal fired, while son Hunter sat on the company’s board collecting millions, is both astounding and terrifying. Why? Because it illustrates the level of ready belief and sanguine compliance to which the overwhelming fraction of Americans have been reduced. Without interest or thought, these millions of fellow citizens will literally believe anything that the lamestream puts out. And if these leftwing outlets refuse to report it, then it simply doesn’t exist in their world of managed and lightly exercised thought.
That manner of practicing democracy was further abetted by the ignoring then denial of the confirmed HunterB laptop and tens of thousands of culpatory emails which outlined the years of influence peddling by the Biden family. And finally, the nothing-burger of dunning the nation’s C19 response which clearly had the largest impact on the sheeple. It was blared out by all media channels daily, and accepted as gospel here and abroad without a shred of evidence. The sheeple were told that science speaks with one consensual voice, and that politically correct voice (no matter how much it varied over the months) confirmed the president’s mismanagement that was the sole cause of hundreds of thousands of preventable C19 deaths. The simple allegation, repeated thousands of times, was enough – no further evidence was and still is necessary. And they all believed; not only that, but also that JoeB had a plan to fix the whole thing once he was voted in.
These three shameful episodes delineating our decline are sufficient evidence for me to believe that, no matter the ultimately demonstrated veracity of voter fraud, America has entered the epoch of nationalized voter manipulation that makes possible nationalized voter fraud.
[More update] And here are couple more of some curious coincidences that now seem to be pouring in. It was really a miracle that 450,000 more votes were discovered in battleground states, all of them for Joe Biden – whouda thought? When you're popular, you're popular. This little piece was reported this morning on FB by Sydney Powell on Maria Bartiromo's program (here). And wait, don't go away. Another coincidence has Gateway Pundit reporting that "Nancy Pelosi’s Chief of Staff Is Chief Executive and Feinstein’s Husband a Major Shareholder at Dominion Ballot Counting Systems" (here). Things are getting curioser and curioser. Now if you don't want to hear about any of this, may I suggest going to any lamestream outlet. (H/T to reader)
[9nov20 update] President Trump’s Warp Speed vaccine development program announced first fruits from Pfizer and BioNTech, these are the first two pharmas completing successful testing and now apply for final FDA approval before its distribution. Other pharmas working on C19 vaccines will soon follow. This development is historic beyond compare, and exceeds even the most optimistic predictions when the administration’s program was announced – Even Dr Fauci opined that nothing could be expected before 18 to 24 months (compared to the approx. 10-year normal development time). All pro-American people are cheering as they welcome this sea changing news for our country and the world.
All except Bumblebrain Biden and minions who rushed out to attempt a pre-emptive public statement and launch what we may expect for some time to come as the first edition of Biden’s Bamboozle Bullshit. He let the us know that the country’s real response to C19 will start after he is sworn in, citing his newly formed C19 committee that will “follow the science”. The clear message throughout his blurb was that nothing has been done to date, and the steps he outlined will save us all after they are implemented during his administration.
The hogwash was obvious to all who know what Trump has done, and that Biden’s proposals are literally nothing new. He gave the most passing mention to the coming vaccine and was only concerned about its equitable distribution. His newly discovered solution to preventing C19 spread continues to rely on masks and social distancing. Actually, Bumblebrain has now also discovered that the feds can’t mandate national mask wearing, that has to be done state by state. No apologies for the contrary bullshit he and Kamala spewed during their campaign. As usual, he took no questions and hustled out immediately after his prepared remarks. The “Biden Plan” is literally nothing more than a belated and partial implementation of what the Trump administration already has in place – and the nation’s double dummies continue to lap it up.
The one who really blew the Democrats’ cover about Covid this morning was Gov Cuomo. He made it clear that the most important thing about the vaccine was its politically correct distribution to the poor, minorities, and tribes. His message was that until such “equitable” distribution means were in place, the vaccine should be withheld – it don’t matter how many people would die in the interval. Readers will recall that I presented the correct Democrat pre-election (now pre-inauguration) utility function for their public policies – minimize economic growth and maximize C19 deaths.
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[Just on the off chance that some readers may want some fresh sand to discuss something other than election related topics (for which we have live postings), I thought that a new Sandbox should be made available. We shall see. gjr]
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George Rebane
We must always remember that, more often than not, the public mind is fickle, frenzied, and foolish.
There was no sign of the ‘Blue Wave’ predicted by the pollsters and ballyhooed by the lamestream. This is the second (third?) national election in a row about which the polls have been drastically off the mark. And, of course, the leftwing lamestream media has already demonstrated itself to be an extremely unreliable source of news, relegating itself to serve the DNC as its propaganda trumpet. Fox News didn’t become the top news channel through only its own efforts; it has had a lot of help from the progressive journalist industry continuing to pander to the people and shooting itself in the foot over and over again.
The bottom line is that according to the prominent leftwing outlet The Atlantic, the pollsters blew it, which resulted in ‘The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy’. It correctly concludes that “If public-opinion data are unreliable, we’re all flying blind.” But the catastrophe is avoidable since we know its cause and how to avoid it. I explained all this in the excellent article – ‘Polling Phollies’ – that I wrote in September 2016 leading up to Trump’s unpredicted victory.
Polling has some very obvious and very subtle twists and turns to it. The reasons that give rise to bad results are mainly due to a few poll design factors that involve sample size, sampling method, the size/share of true population preferences, and the number of ‘bins’ into which the poll wants to estimate the population’s preferences. In the latter, you can have a poll that asks for preference among two or, say, three or more candidates.
(For those wanting more detailed and technical information on these factors and polling errors, you can go here and here for a good place to start.)
The punchline is that the reason for all the polling errors is almost always due to a too small sample size that yields huge error boundary overlaps, especially when the actual population ratios for two alternatives/candidates is in the 0.5 region. As explained and illustrated in my 2016 article referenced above, it is in that region where any given sample size experiences its largest error bounds that more often than not (like today between Trump and Biden) overlap significantly. (For example, a sample size of 1,000 is way too small for error bounds separation.) Such large overlaps also give rise to the back and forth changes of the lead as the vote count proceeds.
So before we get all worked up about voter fraud, it’s prudent to look at other viable causes for what looks like someone is monkeying with the count as the hours pass while pundits are trying to make their points from ‘I told you so’ to exquisite CYA explanations for piss-poor prognostications (more here)
Finally, I’m more than disappointed that no one has presented in easy to understand graphic form (again my 2016 report) the reasons for all the polling follies, and what’s required to eliminate them. The bottom line is that the pollsters must get their technical act together, explain the accessible particulars to their audiences, and work hard now to regain their credibility with the public.
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George Rebane
With the election over and unknown thousands of votes yet to be discovered, counted, and adjudicated, we have entered a virgin and wild land untrammeled in our history. Having arrived therein, today we are literally a polarized population of pioneers who see the other as savages to be subdued. Common ground for launching a healing dialogue was forsaken long ago.
Reminding readers that these pages contain ‘Observations and Interpretations from the Last Great Century of Man’, we now begin in earnest to witness and partake in our country’s dissolution – the Great Divide has arrived, what remains is how we can go forward to a mutually satisfactory political solution that describes the form and functions of a newly divided continent. If we cannot resolve this peacefully, then we may have our country’s first true civil war in which both sides wish to take over and rule the entire land.History students understand that the conflagration of 1860-65 was not a civil war, as it is erroneously described today. In reality it was a War for Southern Independence launched by secessionist states that had no desire to ‘take over’ the United States of America. Were violence to be our fate, then one can foresee a similarly purposed conflict with the Right wanting to secede, and the Left opposing secession with the force of arms. That is a political asymmetry the Left has refused to acknowledge, as it vigorously opposes its natural outcome.
The Right wants to live in a land where it can practice its values of liberty, freedom, enterprise, and capitalism. The Right has no desire to force other people to adopt their values and mores. The Left, as the perpetual hatchery of totalitarian regimes, will force everyone it can control to adopt and practice its ideology, even if that necessitates a vast gulag and re-education camps. The Left has demonstrated again its perennial practice of soiling its existing nests, and then emigrating to unspoiled regions and communities to repeat the process. There is no evidence of emigrations in the opposite direction; the people of the Right continue to escape to a shrinking collection of unspoiled pastures with the vain hope that they will not be followed. It is anyone’s guess how long this pattern of migrations can continue.
The election of 2020 is yet to be decided, but the outlook for Republicans does not look good. I assess President Trump’s chance of being re-elected at less than 5%. The only hope for America dodging the fundamental transformation bullet for the near term is that Republicans retain the Senate, and that SCOTUS will revert to a strong constitutionalist bench in adjudicating the blizzard of cases it will encounter. With a Republican Senate under Majority Leader Mitch, we can hope for blockage of the most egregious socialist GND legislation that will issue from Speaker Pelosi’s House. Under the Harris/Biden administration gridlock will be good.
What disturbs (terrifies?) me the most is the fraction of the electorate that support a fundamental transformation of our Republic from the historical country of Makers to a country of government promoted Takers. This is the key attribute that illustrates our divided house, and therefore portends the Great Divide. None of our leading thinkers ensconced in their Institutions of Thinking has a clue on how to stop the ever-widening chasm so well illustrated this week, let alone providing even a rough outline for bringing us back close enough to preserve the Union. I say this because the Takers have been taught to believe that the only means to reduce their pain – real, imagined, or self-inflicted – is to have government take more from the Makers. As has been shown in so many other countries passing through socialism, there always comes a time when the Makers quit making.
The 2022 election will respond to whatever pain the Democrats inflict on the country. Even though fewer Republican Senate seats will be up for grabs, the solution of inducing more Makers to make more is not on any progressive horizon. If the Senate flips to the dark side, then Nellie bar the door; even a conservative SCOTUS on the way to the packing house will be of no help. This election, now going for the bumblebrain and socialist-in-waiting, demonstrates that we Americans no longer have the collective wisdom to preserve our liberties or our land of the free. Once a political monopoly is established at the federal level, it will take the country down the trail so visibly blazed by California and its like-minded coastal calamities. What happens then is anyone’s guess, but for sure it will not be pretty.
During this tendentious week, my final wish is that President Trump will act presidential when this election’s dust settles. And if he must depart, that he does so with newfound dignity and decorum, that were it practiced more frequently during his years in office would have guaranteed him a second term.
[7nov20 update] “Joe Biden is Elected the 46th U.S. President”
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George Rebane
All nations that have yielded to a political monopoly have descended into autocracy on the road to tyranny.
[3nov20] Starting today – Election Day – we are going to witness an historic ramping up of fake news, Big Lies, and propaganda from the Left’s lamestream media channels. This will be the likes of something we have never seen, exceeding or at least rivalling the 19th century ante-bellum press reports and political commentaries. Finding reliable news sources to monitor the progress of the election and public square responses in the coming days will be difficult. Readers are invited to share links to outlets they consider reliable. And our leftwing readers are encouraged to present evidence about conservative outlets that are participating in this national charade.
Reader Barry Pruett sent this photo of Reno voters waiting in a long line to vote.
[4nov20 update] Fox News election reporting is a puzzle. Their projections continue to change without providing any evidence as to why. I’ve been a longtime critic of their claim to be “Fair, balanced, and unafraid.” As even some national conservative commentators (e.g. Rush Limbaugh) are starting to point out, FN has added a new reason to be afraid – the ire of the Murdochs, their ‘Never Trump’ owners. ‘Fair’ and ‘balanced’ are unachievable, and FN has always been a bit skittish in straying too far to the right of the lamestream. The choice of verbiage for their news copy is a dead giveaway. It’s a sad state of affairs when the best available outlet is also visibly tainted.
The Economist is clueless when it comes to interpretations of Americana and what’s going on in the United States, and its reportage regularly reflects that. But that ‘newspaper’ has something going for it that makes it a rare remaining class act in journalism. It is a privately owned enterprise and makes no pretense of being fair and balanced. It has a definite list to port of which it is proud, and you can see it reflected in almost every news article it publishes where it marbles its editorial ideology with its interpretation of the reported happenings; and that goes double for its opinionated commentators. Now that is what I call unafraid journalism. Take a look at the front cover of its most recent print edition – no puzzle there as to their position on our politics.
Pass the barf bag. I’ve had it to the gills with all these heavy duty journalists and experts on TV finding new and not so ingenious ways of saying, ‘I don’t know, beats the hell out of me’ when asked a question about who may win this or how that state will go. They’re paid big bucks to lay their balls on the line and make some kind of firm prognostication from all the data they’ve seen, the elections they’ve covered, and time they’re now spending puzzling on probable outcomes. I can say ‘I don’t know all by my lonesome.’ The only reason I tune in to those chowder heads is to glean some insight that my little pea brain has missed. Instead, we get these tautologies, ‘Well, if it keeps going like this, then X will happen, and if it turns around and goes the other way, then Y will happen (or worse, simply ‘X will not happen’)’. Well no shit Hoppy! What a load of crap they feed us between 5-minute commercial breaks.
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George Rebane
Under the ‘Estonian Fox’ moniker, one of our east coast readers has been a regular on these comment streams. He emailed me his filled out electoral college predictions in the spreadsheet format that I developed and made available here. The first figure below shows his vote assignment per state at the various probability levels. His bottom line is that Trump’s expected electoral votes are 278 (270 required to win), and Biden’s expected is 260. This squeaker projects a 0.52 probability that Trump wins. In the second figure EFox assigned ones and zeros to the candidates who had the higher probability of taking each state from his first assessment. This kind of ‘all or nothing’ figuring give Trump 325 votes and Biden 213 – a clear Republican glory road. Well, from his mouth to God’s ear is all we can hope for.
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