Rebane's Ruminations
January 2026
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  • Behold, a virgin shall be with child, and shall bring forth a son, and they shall call his name Emmanuel, which being interpreted is, God with us.  Matthew 1:23

    Nativity

    George Rebane

    [This Christmas message first appeared here in 2019 and was repeated last year.  It still bears repeating.]

    Another tumultuous year is ending with celebrations for peace and joy.  The Rebanes count themselves among the diminishing number of American Christians who still wish their family and friends, and RR readers of all persuasions a season of remembrance and reflection on what has been bestowed on this third planet, circling a modest star, making its way with billions of similar stars in a galaxy that populates this universe with uncounted trillions of other such galaxies.  Christmas still reminds many of us that we are among the blessed in our seeming insignificance.

  • George Rebane

    Here’s the FDA approval of an Ivermectin wannabe that is touted by the conservative Daily Signal.  And here from Blaze is a more sobering look at the new pill therapeutics that discusses their problems and shortcomings, among them price.  Meanwhile IVM has all the proven requirements for an early stage pill to minimize subsequent Covid morbidity, and a medicine that is widely available, off-patent cheap, and doesn’t have the feared side effects of the recently rushed remedies from big pharma.

    [24dec21 update]  Here is a gun culture that would give our totalitarians (aka Democrats) sanitary problems in their shorts.  And it's all made possible, as always, by the society's civilized culture; something that has been destroyed in America, the land of the formerly free.  (H/T to reader)

    [26dec21 update]  Weather guessers (aka meteorologists) have no shame.  This becomes clear to anyone who attempts to use winter weather forecasts for planning purposes.  Their models are totally deficient in their attempts to predict impactive weather events like rain or snow.  Their unabashed predictions over the last five days for the imminent onset of heavy snow have witnessed a steady sequence of rollbacks without once diminishing the “100%” probabilities they continue to attribute the snows’ onsets that are only a few hours in the future.  Bottom line – no can do, but will continue publishing unabated bullshit hour after hour as the days pass.  So, the tribe that can’t hack getting major weather changes only hours away, still insist that their ‘science’ allows them to predict global temperatures 50 years from now to within one degree Celsius.  And then there are the millions of true believers out there eating it all up – don’t get me (re)started.

    [27dec21 update] VDH's The Dying Citizen (2021) is a tour de force from a scholar and keen observer of the human condition that is not his first, nor will it be his last.  In Hanson's included essay on the progressivists' plan for global governance, I extract the following – "In sum, globalization rests on a few poorly examined laws: those who draft globalized rules for others have the resources to navigate around them.  Discussions of abstract cosmic challenges – achieving world peace, cooling the planet, lowering the seas, dismantling secure borders – are psychological ways to square the circle of failure to solve concrete problems at home from war to poverty.  Wealthy tech workers in San Francisco hold frequent conferences and symposia about addressing water, sewage, and disease in Africa, but the have demonstrated no ability to address California's own fetid city streets, which are home to over three hundred thousand homeless and rife with medieval diseases, refuse, excrement, and rodents.  In addressing such existential and age-old challenges, we are left where we started in Western civilization: the only means are transparent decentralized local governments, audited by a free and disinterested press and acting under the aegis of a constitutional, consensual republic, serving only at the pleasure of a voting citizenry." (emphasis added)

    [29dec21 update]  To become an actuary is hard, so reports the 29dec21 WSJ in ‘Want to be an actuary?  Odds are you’ll fail the test.’  “Insurers need experts to calculate risks.  Among those number-crunchers’ riskiest endeavors are the tortuous exams for credentials.” Actuaries do all kinds of quantitative risk assessment work for insurance companies, M&A consultants, corporate investment activities, etc.  The two professional credentialed actuary levels are Associate and Fellow.  Passing multiple tests are required for each, the toughest being on probabilistics.  The tests are usually taken multiple times by successful candidates to get passing scores – even then only 15% of those attempting make it to Associate, 10% make it to Fellow.  Here’s one of the toughies on probabilistics.  “An urn contains 10 balls: 4 red and 6 blue. A second urn contains 16 red balls and an unknown number of blue balls. A single ball is drawn from each urn. The probability that both balls are the same color is 0.4720.  Calculate the number of blue balls in the second urn.”  Give it a try and post your answer in the comments.  I’ll post the correct answer after we see a few attempts (or not).

  • George Rebane

    Governments here in America and around the world are fumbling around with Covid response policies as every new variant is discovered and infection cases surge and retreat.  People continue to be assured that the public agencies and their political leaders are “following the science”, even when there is no evidence of such following presented or demonstrated.  But as we have all experienced, the government agencies, ‘experts’, and politicians are all over the place with their advice, prescriptions, and mandates.  It is clear that neither the national nor global collective knows how to properly respond to the pandemic (e.g. here)  More disturbing are the ongoing subterfuges that leak out in the media and online.  An extremely revealing and disturbing interview is by Tucker Carlson of Robert Kennedy Jr, author of the current best seller The Real Anthony Fauci (2021).  It has been pulled by YouTube and FN, but is still available on Bitchute here.

    In my many-years experience with healthcare decision making, I have found that practitioners in the medical industry are profoundly ignorant of uncertainty, risk, utility, estimation, and in general critical interventions that are affected by uncertainties (i.e. depend on probabilistics).  This assessment applies especially to the physicians with whom the patient interacts.  These people are uniformly condescending or arrogantly hubristic in how they hide their ignorance of the maladies in question, and what is required for the lay patient to make a reasoned and understandable decision.

    Perfidy aside, nowhere is such practice more visible to the technically trained than in the field of public health.  A current posterchild demonstrating this is how little and erroneously we are informed about Covid testing.  We are told that testing is somehow critical to reducing the spread of the disease – the more testing the better.  Tests are communicated to the layman as consisting of one uniform process that somehow reliably determines your infection status AND your ability to infect others.  Science tells us nothing could be further from the truth.

    Ignorance of causes and effects should be usefully represented quantitatively.  Such ignorance is no excuse for avoiding quantitative decision support techniques.  For example, here is an AMA article that talks about test types, dependers, and whyfors, but gives you no information about the involved probabilistics (e.g test sensitivities and specificities) for decision making.  Today machines can be designed to incorporate more knowledge than any one or group of practitioners can manage in literally any specific domain of expertise.  As a consequence, where such technology is applied, AI-based decision support systems outperform their human counterparts every time – and this is specifically the case in medicine and healthcare.  Here is Nobelist Daniel Kahneman on AI bettering human decisions. (here and here)

    (more…)

  • [Bumblebrain again promises that the feds spending an extra $5T this decade under its BBB plan will be the best thing for the economy since "it will cost nothing" by taxing the bejeezus out of everyone in sight.  You really didn't believe that "only those making over $400K" did you?  What is it that makes all leftwingers terminally stupid about economics and as to how humans respond to armed confiscation?  Perhaps that mental deficiency is a prerequisite for becoming a leftwinger.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    At our house the conversation turns to politics after the usual householder topics are covered and resolved.  Both Jo Ann and I are political animals.  Readers know my beliefs and propensities, there is here a long record of both, one that is regularly ignored by those of the Left.  Not so many here know about the wife of my life.  She is a longtime hardworking volunteer in various philanthropic organizations and in charge of our family’s giving.  She is also a member of the NC Republican Central Committee, the Union’s editorial board, and the Nevada County Republican Women Federated.  The latter is the local chapter of the largest organization of grassroots Republicans, and next week she will become the new president of the NCRWF.  Did I mention that she’s also the family matriarch with our two daughters, six adult grandchildren, and five great-grandchildren?  Me?  I now try to devote as much time as possible to master the lifestyle of a classic flâneur of the Taleb school – you see, I have been blessed as a kept man by a very capable woman.  Enough.

    TwoBodiesProblemRecently we dissected the abortion issue (again).  It’s a topic much discussed in these pages, but not so recently.  The so-called ‘pro-life’ anti abortionists continue to miss the dominant argument to abet their cause.  The ‘pro-choice’ promoters base their entire case on the mantra ‘A woman has a right to do with her body as she will.’ – my body, my choice.

    The entire basis of the abortionists is that there is only one body and one life involved.  That’s not true in any sense of the word, most certainly not clinically, and in many places, not legally.  What the pro-lifers should continually point out is the singular ‘body’ in the pro-choicers’ mantra, and ask ‘how many bodies (lives) does your choice affect?’  Getting them to admit to the correct answer will change the nature of the debate on a pregnant woman’s rights, subsidizing abortions, who should be involved in the decision, especially in the pregnancy of a minor, and so on.

    All ideologues, no matter their coloration, agree on the importance of controlling language as part and parcel of controlling thought (Sapir-Whorf and all that).  The ongoing onslaught of the Left to cancel western culture requires strict adherence to language control, especially as it is taught in schools, used on the lamestream, and pontificated by progressive politicians.  The tsunami of illegal entrants across our open southern border is a case in point.  These arrivals are no longer illegal aliens, or even illegal immigrants.  Today they are simply migrants.  Everyone knows that people have innocently migrated here and there for ages, that’s how the world got populated.  And the migrants from the south are simply people who decided to move to the United States, so what’s wrong with that?  Read the poem on the Statue of Liberty.

    In the same vein the press has banned Christmas tree.  The thing we light and decorate in our living rooms during Christmas is now relabeled as the “holiday tree”.  None of that European western culture need be acknowledged in lands both ancient and colonized.  Today a new global world of equity is dawning.  But a little attention reveals that the culture cancelling is very precisely directed.  No one yet dreams of calling the menorah of Hanukkah a ‘holiday candelabra’.

    And then there are pejoratives like ‘white supremacist’ and ‘racist’ which must only be used for their implied meanings but never ever defined.  For to offer definitions, no matter how imprecise or ludicrous, would quickly torpedo their entire narrative in pursuit of social justice and equity.  Substance in support of socialists’ apologetics is definitely not their strong suit.

    We both could not help smiling (more like snickering) when we heard the latest report on NPR about BLM leaders going on media to lament that ‘armed white people are now running amok’, thereby making their rioters and pillagers to feel unsafe during their public activism.  As odd as that may seem, we hope that more law-abiding people would carry in public, and have the strong belief that rioters assaulting innocents should not feel safe as they are promoted politically on the lamestream.

    [13dec21 update]  Ivermectin’s effectiveness subrogated to landing a $40M grant.  A leading virologist and researcher, Dr Andrew Hill, republished his favorable findings on the life-saving effects of Ivermectin in order to satisfy the politically correct requirements for obtaining a sizeable grant for Liverpool University.  Given the demonstrated performance of Ivermectin in saving lives during the Covid pandemic, Hill worried about changing his report that could then cost about a half-million lives since his research was one of the main inputs used by the WHO to recommend Covid therapeutics around the world.  You can read all about this tawdry and deadly saga here.  (H/T to reader)

    ‘Bend over and spread ‘em.’  Our State Dept admits this was the reception our diplomats got when arriving in China and succumbing to their government’s C19 tests via anal swabs.  Understandably Foggy Bottom has been very silent about this new level of contempt Xi has for Team Biden.  This latest foreign policy embarrassment was instituted in February 2021, immediately after Bumblebrain got sworn in.  The insult was first discovered by The Hill to whom State admitted that it was carried out but under protest since the State Dept “never agreed” to the Chinese ignominiously swabbing our diplomats where the sun don’t shine.  This was confirmed by Judicial Watch which filed a lawsuit after State stonewalled a FOIA request.  (more here)

    [16dec21 update]  No disaster remains unattributed to climate change.  The know-nothing activists are doing their best not to let the recent Midwest tornado disaster go to waste.  They will be haranguing us with a passel of made-up tales that the whole thing is more undeniable evidence of preventable manmade global warming.  However, suppressed historical data tells a markedly different story of huge multi-state tornado systems with hundreds killed that have devasted that region since white settlers started keeping records in the early 1800s.  But such counter-narrative evidence is no match for the bullshit that now saturates lamestream outlets. (more here)

  • George Rebane

    Is it Offensive to Illegal Aliens to Refer to Them as 'Illegal Alien'? (here)  I certainly hope so.  But I'm afraid that doing so will not deter more of them from becoming illegal aliens, nor convince those already here illegally to go back.  Nevertheless, it is another concern that is rising to top of our idiot Left's panoply of concerns about America.

    [2dec21 update]  Been pig hunting.  Got back yesterday after a few days in the coastal range near Ladoga on a couple of big cattle ranches with the ranch manager and prominent hunting guide Mike Gardner.  I was with my grandson (in-law) who runs a local electrical contracting business.  We saw some pretty impressive country traveling in Mike’s ‘ranch truck’ and his quads.  We almost had a sanitary problem experiencing for the first time the unbelievable steep terrains both vehicles were capable of navigating.  No luck during the first evening’s and next morning’s hunts.  Then we tried a mid-day hunt.  Grandson got his pig in the standard way with a good scoped shot stalking in medium density vegetation.  He spooked the remaining herd and, as planned, drove them in my direction up the next hill where I was waiting with Mike.  The herd of about eight pigs decided to run up my hill along a fence line that would only give me about a 30ft window and slim chance to nail a pig going about 25mph and covering the space in less than a second.  I was standing about 50ft away with my scope set at a wide 4X as the first pig banzaied out of the brush and immediately disappeared behind the next brush wall.  Having seen how little time that took, I was ready for the second pig a couple of seconds later and calibrated my lead on him.  A second or so later the third pig burst out and I was ready – led him properly and put a round through her a foot before her momentum carried her out of my shooting window where she collapsed and quickly died, bleeding copiously from entry and exit wounds and mouth.  Mike said that in 20 years of guiding hunters he had never seen such a well-placed, off-hand shot at a pig that close and hauling ass at full speed.  Grandson later made my day saying, “Papa, you've still got it!”  (I did a little calculation that determined the pigs’ angular rate from my position was about 42 deg/sec; I had less than a second to nail Miss Piggy.)  We collected our pigs and went back to the ranch house to field-dress them and enjoy a well-earned evening of libations, campfire, and BBQd tri-tip dinner.  Got home yesterday after dropping off the carcasses at the butcher in Oroville.  Fun time and good eating to come of some of the most expensive pork available in these parts – it will pencil out at about $45/lb.

    [3dec21 update]  The march of the deluded continues unabated on The Union’s op-ed pages.  Today’s lead commentary is from a Keith Rhodes.  He argues that K-12 ‘Students need (a) balanced, complete history’, elements of which come right out of CRT, which he maintains is taught only in select courses at the college level.  The evidence from uncounted sources that CRT is well established in the K-12 curricula across the nation.  This is either totally unknown to the (lamestream limited) Mr Rhodes, or is terminally denied.  The Union’s management stated that it will addend editorial corrections to contributed columns with obvious errors.  But it has become clear over the last few months that these ‘corrections’ consist primarily of the newspaper’s editorial (ideological?) stance, and have been applied selectively to conservative commentaries.  Mr Rhodes exhortations to teach our kids divisive anti-American history are so far off base that he does not even acknowledge the decades of enduring damage to public school students perpetrated by unionized leftwing teachers and administrators.  He concludes his sermon with – We have become a polarized society for many reasons, but what was once just the day-to-day march to improve science, medicine and history, to name but a few, has become a contest of rights and freedoms that isn’t necessarily controversial. It’s simply progress.  As we bog ourselves down in the minutia of these arguments, our competitors in Russia, China and Europe march forward, surpassing us militarily, educationally and culturally. We are slowing our progress and we are threatening not only our democracy, but our future.  Students, and all Americans, deserve to know the truth and be taught a balanced and complete history of our nation. That includes the good, the bad and the ugly.

    [7dec21 update]  Ever notice that the self-declared ‘centrists’, ‘independents’, 'non-partisans', etc are overwhelmingly leftwingers who need that extra little bit of subterfuge to bamboozle the innocents they seek to influence?  I was reminded of this again reading this morning’s Union columnist George Boardman’s ‘Observations from the Center Stripe’ which is usually a continuation of his leftwing perspectives on a potpourri of items similar to RR’s Scattershots.  Commentators of the Right never have a problem declaring themselves as conservatives or libertarians, or need to disguise their ideological bent.  But those of the Left know that their medicine will not go down easily unless it is misrepresented in something more palatable.  My own posterchild for this practice is a dear friend of many years whose list to port is beyond obvious and who seeks to deny this through his membership in the equally left-leaning organization calling itself ‘No Labels’.

    [9dec21 update] Sudetenland redux. “President Joe Biden’s administration reportedly plans to push the Ukrainian government to appease Russian President Vladimir Putin by ceding territory” reports the Associated Press.  The profundity of ignorance displayed by this administration knows no bounds.  Perhaps the new history taught in schools today does not mention how surrendering Sudetenland to Hitler in 1938 helped save the world from WW2.

    Climate models’ unreliability finally admitted.  This truth has been a yearslong ongoing RR campaign debunking the climate change hysteria in which the world is embroiled.  There is literally no scientific basis for believing the 50-100 year predictions of the current spate of mutually incoherent climate change, or the more formally known general circulation models.  The 9dec21 WSJ reports, “Earlier this year, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the first time used data on past climate behavior to gauge the reliability of climate models for policy makers.” (emphasis added)  The science on climate change, and especially on preventable manmade global warming, ranges between thin and non-existent.  And the gulf between science and knee-jerk climate public policies is still beyond measure.  The bamboozle of the centuries continues unabated.  (more here)

    Controlling language to control the masses.  We are reminded of this by the first commenter here below.  However, not understanding or properly using language may have an equally destructive impact on the public mind.  Case in point is the ongoing confusion between the use of ‘data’ and ‘information’ which in almost all people’s minds are erroneously the same.  This includes journalists, lawyers, and even most techies.  Today’s WSJ contains an entire section on the “Information Explosion” which turns out to be nothing more than articles on today’s still important data explosion.  The critical difference is that data are facts and beliefs about the real world.  On the other hand, information is data formatted/processed to support decision making.  It is clear that from one dataset more than one set of information may be generated.  Making information from data is usually hard and requires many different skillsets, most of which are difficult to master.  It is the information generating enterprises which deliver real value to society, and also where the real money-making opportunities beckon.

  • [While not overflowing, the last Sandbox was getting a bit dated.  So here's a fresh one that you can fill with holiday cheer, or not.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    Thanksgiving

    In spite of it all dear readers and RR regulars, we still have so much to be thankful for.  Jo Ann and I wish all of you a happy Thanksgiving, and may you be blessed to share it with those you love.

  • Fools all who seem it, and half of those who do not.  Gracian #201

    George Rebane

    Executed anti-Nazi cleric and theologian Dietrich Bonhoeffer correctly maintained that “stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than evil.”  In America, we overwhelmingly confirm this daily.  Now I admit, sometimes it’s hard to accept this as the better of the two alternatives, but for the most part one can embrace Bonhoeffer’s observation because there are way more stupid people in the country than evil ones.  This has also been a Rebane Doctrine tenet for many years.  (more here)

    Democrat politicians and lamestream ‘journalists’ demonstrate this with their audacious and ongoing stream of lies – e.g. the $4T+ BBB cost “will not raise the national debt by one penny.” – they constantly use to convince their cognitively impaired constituents who make up almost half of the country’s voters – without an adequate knowledge base and critical thinking skills, they’ll believe literally anything their favorite information sources spout.

    Bonhoeffer went on to say –

    Against stupidity we have no defense.  Neither protests nor force can touch it.  Reasoning is of no use.  Facts that contradict personal prejudices can simple be disbelieved – indeed, the fool can count by criticizing them, and if they are undeniable, they can just be pushed aside as trivial exceptions.  So the fool, as distinct from the scoundrel, is completely self-satisfied.  In fact, they can easily become dangerous, as it does not take much to make them aggressive.  For that reason, greater caution is called for than with a malicious one.  Never again will we try to persuade the stupid person with reason, for it is senseless and dangerous.

    This why so many of today’s conservative and libertarian writers, along with moi, see no common ground across which a trail may be blazed to the unification of our polarized population.  The only solution being a negotiated Great Divide or barricades in the streets.

  • George Rebane

    Those whose politics have no acceptable future, divert attention only to their version of the past.

    National Propaganda Radio this morning featured interviews with BLM leaders who claimed that the Rittenhouse verdict now justified the wanton killing of black protesters by illegally armed and militant white supremacists.  This outrageously false message was repeated by the usual lamestream suspects in a litany of videos shown on FN’s Media Buzz broadcast.  All of it follows an historical year of the mainstream media and leftwing politicians gratuitously libeling Kyle Rittenhouse with allegations that have shown to be pure fabrications by a rogue press continuing their narrative to support critical race theory.

    Upon examination, the main complaint of BLM is the fear that the thugs they field under the rubric of ‘peaceful protesters’ will now no longer feel secure when they riot and assault property owners and others they deem to be their class enemies.  The lament is that Rittenhouse has set a precedent that it is now legal for “militant white supremacists” to carry guns on the street and defend themselves when attacked.  A gang of rioters can no longer feel safe and protected by supportive progressive politicians, and the legions of the side-lined and lame law enforcement cadres.  What’s a peaceful protester to do when presented with such a potentially dire scenario?

    Led by outlets like NPR, CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo, …, the public has been told a mountain of lies for over a year about what happened in Kenosha on 25 August 2020.  Humorous personal vignettes now abound about astonished, some outraged, Americans who just now are finding out that race was not an issue in the shootings since only white men were involved, and that it was legal (if not wise) for Rittenhouse to carry a visible long-gun during a riot, and that there was no illegal crossing of state lines with a weapon, and that he had more right to be in town than the imported thugs burning and destroying everything they could lay their hands on.  You pay a high price in ignorance when you limit your news sources to the politically woke and stridently divisive lamestream.

    For the rest of us it would be a boon if more law-abiding citizens with concealed carries to protect their cities were on streets empty of police when Antifa and BLM plan their next riots.  No rioters should feel secure when they pick an innocent victim and decide to assault him with the intent of doing great bodily harm or worse.  Nevertheless, that guarantee of safety for the criminal is the demand of every Democrat, most certainly those of national repute.

    Postscript – To properly characterize the nature of the Left who now assemble on the streets, and prepare for future protests cum riots, we have last Friday’s Chicago, Portland, and Brooklyn demonstrations led by worthies such as ‘The Reverend’ Jesse Jackson.  At these demonstrations people chanted, “every city, every town, burn your precinct to the ground”, and “the only solution is a communist revolution.” (more here)

10 comments on Christmas – 2021