Rebane's Ruminations
January 2026
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  • George Rebane

    The ongoing situation in Ukraine is totally asymmetrical – Russia intensifies its bombing and battlefield assaults while the West jawbones and regurgitates threats that don’t materialize.  Meanwhile Trump is basking in the revised and reconstructed interpretation of the disastrous Anchorage outcome – talk about lipstick on a pig.  He now believes his own press clippings and claims that he always wanted to skip a cease fire and go immediately into negotiating a peace treaty to end the war.

    This is an obvious page out of Putin’s much publicized playbook.  There is ample evidence of Trump’s pre-Anchorage demands for an immediate ceasefire, which if not agreed to by Putin would result in immediate implementation of secondary economy crippling sanctions on Russia and the upgrading of Ukraine’s military with EU purchased US weapons.

    In the meantime Putin repeats his prerequisites for peace, demanding he keeps conquered lands, get additional relinquished strategic territory, prevents Ukraine from maintaining an effective military, and prohibits Ukraine from ever joining NATO.  His intentions during such a hiatus is to rebuild/refurbish the Russian army, and then complete the conquest of Ukraine either physically or politically as a satrap a la Belorussia.

    To put a bow on Putin’s contempt for western leaders and the West’s initiatives was unmistakably shown last night when he bombed an American built and operated factory in Ukraine.

    Trump allowing this asymmetry to continue indicates that he is again (still?) unclear on Putin’s goals and MO for achieving them.  All he can tell his devoted audiences is that he is “very unhappy” with Putin’s response and the lack of progress toward a trilateral meeting with Zelinsky in attendance, followed by a bilateral meeting during which Zelinsky has only a knife to bring to a gunfight.

    To their credit, there are a few reputable commentators on FN and FB who are echoing the above sentiments.  But it all seems to be water off the Donald’s back.

    [Later]  Just out is WSJ’s 22aug25 editorial on the matter (here).  It agrees with my harangue above and points out, “The question now is how quickly Mr. Trump concludes he’s being played again, and the evidence is mixed.”  (emphasis mine re Anchorage)

    In criticizing the former president, “Mr. Biden, or whoever was running his Ukraine policy, had no strategy for victory. But Mr. Trump has also been reluctant to open up U.S. weapons stores and give Ukraine a real long-range missile arsenal and the freedom to use it.”

    WSJ concludes that “All the happy smiles of diplomacy won’t make a difference unless Mr. Putin thinks that the cost to him of continuing the war is higher than the risk of ending it. … It’s past time for Mr. Trump to apply secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. That might get China’s attention. Here’s another idea: Confiscate each week a portion of the $300 billion in Russian reserves frozen in the West as long as the bombing continues. The hard truth is that a durable peace in Ukraine isn’t likely without a much harder policy from Mr. Trump.”

  • George Rebane

    As President Trump meets with Ukraine’s Zelinsky and select NATO leaders at the White House to discuss a strategic response to Putin’s peace treaty demands, it is good to review what the Russian thug has in mind as supported by overwhelming evidence (see below) of his behavior on the world scene.  The main points to keep in mind are that (1) Russia’s economy is on its ass, and (2) Putin’s physical wellbeing depends on his success in prosecuting his many declarations of reclaiming Russia’s destiny as the dominant European cum world power.

    Preceded by Lenin, Stalin, et al, the Russians of the former USSR and now Putin have yet to existentially keep any promises they have made since the 1917 Bolshevik revolution.  Russia’s current activities along their eastern border with NATO countries are ongoing testimony to Putin’s plans for future conquests – e.g. cross border transgressions, vandalizing European communication and energy pipelines, massing of troops on the borders of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and, of course, the ongoing conquest of Ukraine.

    Putin has put himself into a no-win situation with his military’s high command and Russia’s corps of corrupt oligarchs.  He can no longer retreat to a normalized stance in which he renounces foreign adventures and convinces everyone that he will now play nice and work to re-establish Russia as well-behaved trading nation participating in international commerce.  A fundamental, but seldom mentioned, cultural trait of Slavic Russians is that they have never believed in win-win relationships.  Their fundamental worldview is that of a zero sum game.  There are now too many divergent interests to satisfy, all of whom see Putin as a one-tune band to bring riches through conquest and military power or we’ll invite you to enjoy a wonderful view of Moscow from a nearby window.

    The wiser heads in our corner will see Putin for what he has amply demonstrated to be.  And any upcoming agreements with him will have to be backed by short-fuse and terminal economic sanctions along with the positioning of ample tripwire NATO forces in the Ukraine matching those now in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Poland.  The bottom line is that Putin has been and continues to be a lying sumbich.  I document the compiled history of his broken promises in Download PutinsBrokenPromises which concludes with –

    Putin’s history of broken promises in international agreements is extensive, spanning the Budapest Memorandum (1994), Minsk Agreements (2014–2015), arms control treaties (INF, Open Skies, New START), and numerous ceasefires. Violations began early in his tenure (e.g., Istanbul Document, 1999) and escalated with aggressive actions in Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014, 2022). Partial compliance, such as in prisoner exchanges or the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was short-lived and driven by self-interest. Russia’s actions reflect a strategy of using agreements as tools for delay or leverage, eroding trust in its commitments. Any future agreements would require robust enforcement to counter this track record.

  • "Peace in our time!"  Prime Minister Neville Chamberlin, 1938

    George Rebane

    Well hell, President Trump did not pull that one off in Anchorage.  With all the talking heads on Fox doing their best to put a good face on it, there’s no denying that Trump got nothing out of this abbreviated summit that he previewed the world as his goal.  Putin got everything – a global stage on which to show his equivalence to Trump, and a chance to rope-a-dope the west from the embarrassing post-summit podium that turned out to be an aborted joint press conference.  Trump just stood there and took it, when he should have been on AF1 headed back to Andrews.  Neither leader wanted to answer any spontaneous questions from a press corps that knew there would be no cease fire in Ukraine.  Both quickly got on their planes and outta there.

    To add insult to injury, everyone now expects that there will be an embarrassing follow-on meeting after Putin has ample time to continue bombing the crap out of the Ukrainians and reoutfitting his forces for the next push to grab the four-city defensive line west of Donbas.

    What I hope that we’ll hear out of our Fearless Leader, after he gathers his wits, is that the secondary sanctions on Russia will immediately go into effect, and that the EU/NATO leaders will immediately start shipping Zelinsky the promised weapons they will by from America.  Oh yes, and encourage the Ukrainians to start deep strikes into Russia, primarily Moscow and St Petersburg.  If Trump does nothing but talk about a second meeting during which this time he really, really will get Putin to behave, then this summit may well go down as Trump’s own Afghanistan debacle.

    I will be the happiest if I have to eat these words.

    [16aug25 update]  Seems that my sentiments about Anchorage are being widely shared today by usually Trump-favoring outlets like the WSJ.  The lamestream’s responses were preprogrammed regardless of the summit’s outcome.  The 16aug25 WSJ news coverage (here) concludes with, “In contrast to the handshakes and smiles that characterized the start of their meeting on the taxiway at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Putin and Trump looked stone-faced during much of the news conference. Putin spoke for roughly eight minutes. Trump then spoke for three minutes, before they both left.” 

    The outcome was more harshly covered in the op-ed pages (here).  “… the Russian achieved one of his major goals from the summit, which is the start of his rehabilitation as a world leader. The summit ended his isolation from the West, and he gave up nothing for it. He also appears to have gained more time to continue bombing Ukrainian cities and slowly taking more territory.”

  • [This piece was composed with significant research from xAI's Grok; it summarizes the years of posts under what I characterize as Rebane Doctrine.]

    George Rebane

    Why do collectivist governments with central planning and control not work?

    Collective governments with central control—typically referring to systems like command or centrally planned economies where the state directs resource allocation, production, and distribution—have been critiqued extensively for their inefficiencies and historical shortcomings. While proponents argue they can promote equity and rapid industrialization (as seen in the early Soviet Union), they often struggle due to fundamental structural issues. Below, I'll outline the main reasons they tend not to work effectively, drawing from economic theory, historical examples, and analyses. These are not absolute failures in every case, but common patterns observed in implementations like the Soviet Union, Cuba, and North Korea.

    1. Lack of Price Signals and Economic Calculation Problems

    Central planners cannot efficiently allocate resources without market-driven prices, which naturally reflect supply, demand, and consumer preferences. Without these signals, it's impossible to accurately forecast needs, leading to shortages, surpluses, and misallocation. For instance, planners might overproduce unwanted goods while underproducing essentials. This issue, known as the "economic calculation problem," was famously articulated by economists like Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, who argued that no central authority can process the vast, dispersed knowledge held by individuals in a society.

    1. Overwhelming Complexity and Data Challenges

    Economies are too complex for central authorities to manage effectively, involving billions of data points on production, consumption, and preferences. Planners often deal with incomplete, inaccurate, or outdated information, making informed decisions impossible. In the Soviet Union, for example, delays in processing data led to persistent inefficiencies.

    1. Perverse Incentives and Malicious Compliance

    Without personal profit motives or competition, workers and managers prioritize meeting quotas over quality or efficiency, often leading to absurd outcomes. A classic Soviet anecdote illustrates this: when nail production was measured by quantity, factories made millions of tiny, useless nails; when switched to weight, they produced massive spikes instead. This "malicious compliance" also appeared in over-whaling or running empty trains to hit targets, resulting in waste and environmental harm.

    1. Absence of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

    Central control stifles creativity by eliminating entrepreneurs who could identify and solve problems quickly. With no private initiative or risk-reward system, innovations lag—Soviet products like cars remained stagnant for decades compared to Western competitors. Issues like chronic shortages (e.g., toilet paper in the USSR) persisted because only state entities could act, delaying solutions.

    1. Lack of Competition and Monopolies

    State monopolies lead to poor quality and inefficiency, as there's no pressure to improve or cut costs. Unlike market economies where failing firms go bankrupt, state enterprises survive regardless of performance, draining resources. This contributed to the Soviet Union's technological backwardness and consumer dissatisfaction.

    1. Concentration of Power and Corruption Risks

    Central planning requires a large bureaucracy, which can become a de facto ruling class prone to corruption, self-interest, and poor decisions by non-experts. Power struggles (e.g., under Stalin) led to arbitrary allocations, like sending inappropriate equipment abroad. Historically, this has suppressed individual freedoms and led to authoritarianism.

    1. Inflexibility and Inability to Adapt

    Fixed prices and rigid plans prevent quick responses to changes, causing ongoing shortages or surpluses. Equity goals often fail too, with poor-quality goods and inefficiencies harming overall welfare. Many centrally planned systems, like those in Eastern Europe post-WWII, collapsed or transitioned to market models in the 1980s and 1990s due to these issues.

    In summary, while central control can achieve short-term goals like mobilization during crises, it generally falters under the weight of human knowledge limits, incentive misalignments, and complexity. Most modern economies succeed as mixed systems, blending planning with market mechanisms for better outcomes.

    Which political party promotes centralized control and planning?

    The Democratic Party in the United States is often associated with promoting centralized control and planning, particularly through policies that emphasize government intervention in the economy, social programs, and regulatory frameworks. Democrats typically advocate for federal initiatives like universal healthcare, environmental regulations, and wealth redistribution, which involve centralized decision-making to achieve broader societal goals. For example, policies like the Affordable Care Act or proposals for a Green New Deal reflect a preference for coordinated, government-led planning.

    In contrast, the Republican Party generally leans toward decentralized approaches, favoring free-market principles, limited government, and individual state autonomy, though there are exceptions depending on specific issues or leadership. Both parties can support centralized measures in certain contexts, but Democrats are more consistently aligned with centralized planning as a core ideological stance.

     

  • George Rebane

    Trump and Putin without Zelinsky will provide us a new perspective on pissing in the wind.  Don’t know why The Donald is setting himself up for a failure in Alaska.  Putin can’t back-off giving back conquered Ukrainian territory, and the West can’t afford to have Putin have another success in restoring USSR’s boundaries.  And any agreement for a temporary unresolved cease fire will only allow the thug to refit and refurbish his troops for the next push deeper into Ukraine.  Rebane Doctrine calls for massive new sanctions and the arming of Ukraine with weapons that can reach deep into Russia (e.g. Moscow and St Petersburg) along with strong public encouragement from the US and our allies to use that weaponry to make the war very expensive for Putin.  To communicate with him, we have to speak his language.

    Trump plans to tax US exports – what?!!  Have no idea how this harebrained idea has gotten purchase in the White House.  Tax Rule #1 – when you tax something more, you get less of it.  In this case we have Nvidia initially being told not to sell its chips to China for national security reasons.  Then Trump tells Nvidia that our national security will be served with such exports as long as the feds get 15% tax off the top line.  And all along we’ve been told that we want our importers to pay us tariffs, and we want the US to be the top exporter in the world.  Well, Mr President, taxing exports is not exactly how to pull that off.  BTW, has anyone heard who all pays what share of our import tariffs?  Me neither.

    Trump is not winning the federalizing urban law enforcement argument.  Our leftwing politicians and media are howling that all that is an unnecessary autocratic takeover of local governance.  Why?  Well, because the data shows decreasing crime rates.  This no matter that crime levels are still too high and decreasing too slowly.  No one on the Right seems to understand and correctly counter with the important difference between levels and rates (i.e. time rates of change of levels).  For example the DC murders/100K population is second in the nation for equivalent size cities.  Led by Fox News, without a countering argument, the rightwing media just replays the video clips of the Left repeatedly pointing out that no special law enforcement intervention is necessary since “crime rates are coming down”  (itself a nonsensical statement).

  • [NYC’s Mamdani is a communist in socialist’s clothing.  He is now polling at the 40+% level and sure to be the city’s next mayor.  On his current Hate Trump tour he is telling his double dummies that he’s willing to work with Trump as long as the president is ready to federally subsidize his ‘affordability’ projects like free city transit rides and cheap food from city-owned grocery stores.  Gerald Baker in the 12aug25 WSJ (here) posits that Mamdani may herald a new kind of class struggle – “It’s the overeducated elites, not laborers or the masses, who are getting behind socialism today.” gjr]

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  • [This commentary was also published in the 15aug25 edition of The Union (here)]

    George Rebane

    As President Trump prepares to welcome Putin to Alaska, where he won’t be arrested, the meeting draws much attention and has little chance of producing anything useful because President Zelinsky of Ukraine remains uninvited.  All anticipatory reports of the coming proceedings have Trump willing to cede parts of Russian conquered Ukraine – e.g. Donbas et al – to Putin without Zelinsky having much say in the matter.

    Putin has convinced his own population and many in the West (see Barry Pruett’s ‘Report from Moscow’) that Russia had to invade Ukraine in order to guarantee the rights and safety of ethnic Russians who concentrate in eastern Ukraine bordering Russia.  The students of history, a diminishing population, will see the stark similarities between Putin in 2022 and Hitler in 1938 when the latter annexed Czechoslovakia’s bohemian territories, called Sudetenland by the heavily populated ethnic Germans who were treated as second class citizens by the Czech regime.

    Both dictators did their deeds for the same reason – lebensraum.  However, Hitler’s ante-bellum conquest was highly criticized worldwide, save for a klatch of British appeasers led by Chamberlain of ‘Peace in our time’ fame.  Today we don’t hear much about Putin having to withdraw from conquered Ukrainian territories.  The new realpolitik is that we have to give him anything he wants in order “to stop the killing”.  Hitler used the post-annex hiatus to prepare for the invasion of Poland which included the complete takeover of Czechoslovakia.  Putin’s plans are identical.  He needs a respite to rebuild and refurbish the Russian Army so that he can continue his avowed historical destiny to restore Russia to its Czarist/USSR borders.

    The gambit of invading neighbors to protect the rights of your ethnic and cultural relatives living there is an old one.  Stalin spent his entire tenure exporting Slavic Russians to inhabit conquered borderlands ranging from Kazakhstan to Estonia.  At the same time he stationed Red Army units reciprocally from diametric locales in order to suppress any uprisings.  He figured correctly that Kazakhstanis would have no problem firing on Estonians, and vice versa.

    So why don’t we hear some of these talking heads on the media comparing Donbas and Sudetenland in their analyses of the coming peace negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian war?  Shouldn’t there be some comparison made between the goose and the gander?

  • [This is the first of which I hope will be several reports from Barry Pruett in Russia.  Barry is a friend and a longtime reader of RR.  We all wish him safe travels in a very harsh part of the world.  gjr]

    Barry Pruett

    Well, it seems that Trump and Putin are going to meet and then after that they will both meet with Zelenskyy. It is interesting that Europe is being left out – a fact that has been pointed out extensively here. I do not think that the Russians have a huge problem with America right now, as they seem to be more disgusted with western Europe (Merz, Macron, Stamer). My prayer is that they can find a way to end the war, because there are a lot of people dying for no reason. I also hope that they meet and achieve peace while we are here. That would make the trip even more special than it already has been.

    What is happening on the front in Ukraine is highly relevant to these negotiations. Russia is lava-rolling Ukraine in western Ukraine. It is not a question, but a simple and undeniable fact. Russia has Pokrovsk and Myrnograd (major logistical hubs for the war in Donbass) basically surrounded. Russians dropped leaflets to the Ukrainians holding out in Pokrovsk warning them to surrender before Russia closes the loop. Russia has acquired 100% of Lugansk, the bulk of Donetsk, and more than half of Kherson and Zaporozhia. Russia believes that it is more important to achieve its military objects than have a rapprochement with the USA.

    As such, Russia has three main objectives. Istanbul Plus so to speak, similar to the agreement that Ukraine and Russia had in March of 2022 which was torpedoed by the West. First, Russia is taking the four above-referenced territories by force or by agreement. Second, Ukraine will never enter NATO. Third, Ukraine's military must be substantially reduced. It appears that these three items are existential for Russia, so until they are agreed or forced, the war will continue. Indeed, and in addition to NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia (Black Sea access) which is a much more in-depth conversation, much of the problem stemmed from the western half of Ukraine being predominantly ethnic Russians.

    Prior to the war, these ethnic Russians were previously being persecuted by the Ukrainian government dominated by western (NATO) interests. Such persecution included but is not limited to restrictions on Russian language in schools and restrictions on Orthodox churches. Indeed, the in-law of a friend of mine had a church in Ukraine near Kharkov in 2022 when the war started. His family fled to Voronezh. He stayed with his church. Shortly after his family fled, the Ukrainians burned down his church and my friend's in-law disappeared. It is unknown whether they killed him or whether he was conscripted and sent to the front. In any event, his family has not heard from him in over three years.

    Also, as Ukraine runs short on manpower, they are intensifying conscriptions and sending unwilling participants to the front. I saw a video yesterday of a man who was in the process of being detained for conscription. He looked to be in his mid-50s. He pulled the pin on a grenade that he was holding and told the conscriptors that if he goes, they go. My understating is that he was eventually detained.

    Ukraine also passed a law men over 60 to enlist. Indeed, they are running out of bodies to put into the grinder and things are desperate. No doubt, these events are what is, in part, driving Trump's urgency. NATO is going to lose Biden's war, and there is nothing NATO can do about it. Of course, Putin and Trump want an offramp, but like in any mediation, they have been too far apart to get an agreement. With the front changing and the lava-rolling continuing, reality may be setting in for Ukraine and the West that it is only a matter of time and consequently the parties are getting closer to where this thing is going to end.

    That's it for today. I have to get back to work! I would be glad to talk to you in more detail in a Zoom conference (if Zoom works) or by some other video method. We leave here in October and with then be in eastern Europe until Christmas. See you then hopefully.

    [Later]  Also, while you slept, Kirill Dmitiriev (Witkoff’s counterpart) announced that the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin next week has the potential to be “historic.”. The location has been chosen, but has not been released yet. That’s not really like that Russian hype stuff up like Trump does. They must’ve made a deal already.

  • [Today the ongoing jeans/genes dustup shows how depraved is the progressive mind.  I wonder  if there are any local liberals who would care to stand up for the idiot commentators on lamestream media who have again proudly discovered that Republicans really are racists and white supremacists now soaked in the Left's promoted eugenics of yesteryear.  Here’s a little video that summarizes their madness.  gjr]

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  • George Rebane

    People don’t like the BBB that’s now law.  Latest WSJ poll shows 42% support, 52% oppose the law. “At least half of poll respondents said the legislation would harm poor people, the working class, Social Security beneficiaries, the US economy, Medicaid recipients nutrition-assistance recipients and the federal budget deficit.”  Every one of these claims is reported by the lamestream and is dead wrong.  The truth is that illegals and ineligibles will no longer receive benefits they’re not entitled to, and every working class will benefit from the new tax law which avoided the biggest US tax increase in history.  But the Dem sleazebags know that their constituents are not capable of refuting any of their claims. (more here)

    Epstein files – Trump’s request to unseal and release the grand jury transcripts is a matter of record.  It’s a federal district judge who has ruled against their release, and none of that is reported by the lamestream media  Dumb Dem voters continue believing their lying politicians and leftwing reporters that it is Trump who is  trying to hide the dirt in the Epstein files.  I guess stupid is forever.

    [update] The Gonnas – The Democrat lying machine is in fine fettle telling their double dummies that the BBB law is gonna starve the children, gonna decimate Medicare and Medicaid, gonna take away Social Security from the retirees, gonna separate children from parents, gonna cause inflation, gonna take money from the poor, gonna enrich the rich, gonna kill democracy, and on and on.  None of it has happened or is true as a simple reading of the law will inform the literate of which there seem to be a diminishing number among the country’s leftwingers – RR is also testimony to this.  The Democrats have NO POLICIES OF THEIR OWN to offer – save from their embarrassing communist in NYC – so all they can do is concoct a dire picture of the future for America under Republicans.  Their ludicrous litany should be evaluated on the basis of all the gonnas they have predicted over the last 20 years – e.g. no party and administration has so mistreated children as have Bumblebrain and his Democrats letting in hundreds of thousands of unaccompanied illegal minors, and then without any accounting allowing them to disappear into the countryside to suffer from unimaginable ordeals as human trafficked child laborers, sex workers, street criminals, homeless waifs, … .

    [1aug25 update] $100M, poof gone. The celebrity filled FireAid concert raised this amount for the benefit of last January’s thousands of LA area wildfire victims who lost their homes.  To date the money is all gone with none of it to help the intended victims.  Congressman Kevin Kiley is launching an investigation of how these monies were stolen by TBD LA politicians who spirited the funds into the coffers of leftwing 501c3 outfits that promote California’s ongoing disastrous public policies and progressive politicians.  Government fraud, waste, and abuse for all to see.

86 comments on Trump’s Putin Relapse – 21aug25