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Category: Web/Tech

  • Election2020 – Electoral College Predictor

    George Rebane Something is possible when it can happen with non-zero probability; something is probable when the chance of its happening will impact a decision. One of our commenters pointed me to 270towin.com, a website that presents a map-based tool to predict the Electoral College (EC) votes which will determine our next president.  They show…

  • The Reliability Roulette of Testing (updated)

    George Rebane [This is the addended transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 21 July 2020.] It’s again time to bring up testing for the Covid-19 virus.  Let me start by saying that testing has shown no value in formulating reasonable pandemic response policies by public officials.  It has become an election year political…

  • The Real Value of Unreliable Tests and Testing

    George Rebane Every social issue draws relevance ONLY through its numbers, which if you don’t understand, then you cannot participate in a reasoned discussion about the issue. Today we are concerned with two types of C19 tests and testing policies.  Tests fall into the ‘detect presence of infection’ variety, and the ‘detect presence of immunity’…

  • Testing to determine population fractions – extended (updated 23apr20)

    George Rebane In ‘Testing to determine population fractions’ I introduced the reliability aspect of tests for both infection and immunity.  This is still not a serious consideration brought up in the daily WH C19 briefings, and, of course, nothing of this level of complexity is covered in the media for various reasons ranging from the acumen…

  • Epidyne – At first blush

    George Rebane As promised, I finally finished the V1.0 version of Epidyne during this enforced C19 self-quarantine, or hunkering down period as it is better known.  The stay at home has allowed a lot of things to get accomplished on everyone’s ‘do list’.  At our house we have not had a boring moment – so…

  • The Value of Testing

    George Rebane Trigger warning: The contents of this commentary may not be accessible to the innumerate reader. As explained in ‘Testing, testing, …’, the value of testing comes to the fore when you have a sufficiently reliable test that can be administered on a regular and scientific basis over a suspect population.  In that case,…

  • Should Our Kids Learn to Code?

    George Rebane [This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 4 March 2020.] As more and more young people finish their education today with unemployable skill sets, while employers are looking for people who can think on their feet and solve problems, the question of whether and how to teach high schoolers…

  • Ruminations – 10jan20 (updated 13jan20)

    George Rebane The Dems’ Chorus of Cacophony is now shrieking at Trump for taking out Soleimani the terrorist as a prophylactic for imminent acts of terror, exactly the same thing they blamed and still blame Bush2 for NOT taking out Bin Laden in order to prevent 9/11.  We recall it was Bill Clinton who declined…

  • Scattershots – 2jan20 (updated 4jan20)

    George Rebane Google’s AI does breast cancer diagnoses.  “Google’s health research unit said it has developed an artificial-intelligence system that can match or outperform radiologists at detecting breast cancer, according to new research. But doctors still beat the machines in some cases. … The AI system outperformed the average radiologist in determining whether the women…

  • Risk Analysis with Subjective EMAB Distributions

    George Rebane A few years back I introduced to our more technically oriented readers a new approach to capture and work with subjective random variables.  In ‘Predicting with Expressed Beliefs – a formal approach’ the Mode Augmented Boxcar (MAB) probability distribution was made available in a report which described its derivation and various useful applications.…

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