[This commentary was published in the 9dec25 online and print editions of The Union.  Recent reports from the federal government and UC San Diego highlight the ongoing and alarming trend in the increase of dumbth in our student population and young people in general. Since this is due entirely to the influence of leftwing teachers’ unions across the land, the lamestream media does not want such reports to see the light of day and corrupt its narrative about the glories of increasing socialism. I commend The Union for being an exception. More here – https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-college-students-who-cant-do-elementary-math-2db5e549 . gjr]

George Rebane

Gavin Newsom, our disaster for governor, is virtue posturing at the latest climate change conference in Brazil while California’s real problems – poorest education, highest unemployment, highest homeless, highest taxes, …  – continue to mount.  In the interval Bill Gates has had an epiphany realizing that the current global warming policies have had and will have little to no effect on climate, but do continue to deny a better life for the world’s poor and needy.  He joins internationally recognized climate realist Bjorn Lomberg of the Copenhagen Consensus (and several thousand independent scientists) in advising that instead of beggaring the world’s less advantaged, that we spend money on improving people’s quality of life and developing technologies that demonstrably do have an impact on reducing manmade contributions to climate change.

In the crosshairs of climate activists is the abolition of fossil fuels as the world’s major source of energy.  In California we are shutting down more refineries in preparation for $7-9/gallon gasoline.  Meanwhile, as Lomberg cites, major international energy agencies report that by 2050 we will reduce our dependence on fossil fuels to satisfy our energy needs from today’s 80% to only 50% at best.  And this will be made possible by expanding today’s prohibitive policies that mandate the changeover from fossil fuels to ‘clean energy renewables’.

What is quietly glossed over and not reported is that even the 50% goal by 2050 will NOT reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, but will actually require a significant increase in their use to satisfy the increased energy needs of the world 25 years from now.  Please stay with me for some light on how this will happen.

Given that more people will emerge from poverty and the enormous energy requirements of advanced technologies like AI, the world’s energy needs are growing at about 2.5% per year.  If we can hold the increased need to this rate of growth, we will require about 85% more energy generation in 2050 than today.  Reducing the fossil fuels’ contribution from today’s 80% to 50% in 2050 will still require almost 93% (=1.85*0.50) of the world’s energy sourced from fossil fuels.  Based on today’s energy production rate this will demand an increase of 13% (=93-80) from fossil fuels.  Again compared to today’s fossil fuel usage, in 2050 we will require more than a 16% (=13/80) increase in the annual amount of fossil fuels generation required to satisfy our future energy needs.  Only major breakthroughs in energy related technologies – not fostered by progressive policies – have a hope of reducing this level of dependence on fossil fuels.

This reality goes safely unreported because our collectivist politicians and their policy elites know that, according to the National Center for Educational Statistics, our citizens are almost totally innumerate and would neither discover nor understand the simple arithmetic of the previous paragraph.  The 50+ year downward spiral in America’s schools has our students today rank 33^rd among the nations of the world in reading, math, and science.  We are even below average among the OECD countries – quo vadis America?