Rebane's Ruminations
August 2025
S M T W T F S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  

ARCHIVES


OUR LINKS


YubaNet
White House Blog
Watts Up With That?
The Union
Sierra Thread
RL “Bob” Crabb
Barry Pruett Blog

George Rebane

As President Trump meets with Ukraine’s Zelinsky and select NATO leaders at the White House to discuss a strategic response to Putin’s peace treaty demands, it is good to review what the Russian thug has in mind as supported by overwhelming evidence (see below) of his behavior on the world scene.  The main points to keep in mind are that (1) Russia’s economy is on its ass, and (2) Putin’s physical wellbeing depends on his success in prosecuting his many declarations of reclaiming Russia’s destiny as the dominant European cum world power.

Preceded by Lenin, Stalin, et al, the Russians of the former USSR and now Putin have yet to existentially keep any promises they have made since the 1917 Bolshevik revolution.  Russia’s current activities along their eastern border with NATO countries are ongoing testimony to Putin’s plans for future conquests – e.g. cross border transgressions, vandalizing European communication and energy pipelines, massing of troops on the borders of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and, of course, the ongoing conquest of Ukraine.

Putin has put himself into a no-win situation with his military’s high command and Russia’s corps of corrupt oligarchs.  He can no longer retreat to a normalized stance in which he renounces foreign adventures and convinces everyone that he will now play nice and work to re-establish Russia as well-behaved trading nation participating in international commerce.  A fundamental, but seldom mentioned, cultural trait of Slavic Russians is that they have never believed in win-win relationships.  Their fundamental worldview is that of a zero sum game.  There are now too many divergent interests to satisfy, all of whom see Putin as a one-tune band to bring riches through conquest and military power or we’ll invite you to enjoy a wonderful view of Moscow from a nearby window.

The wiser heads in our corner will see Putin for what he has amply demonstrated to be.  And any upcoming agreements with him will have to be backed by short-fuse and terminal economic sanctions along with the positioning of ample tripwire NATO forces in the Ukraine matching those now in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Poland.  The bottom line is that Putin has been and continues to be a lying sumbich.  I document the compiled history of his broken promises in Download PutinsBrokenPromises which concludes with –

Putin’s history of broken promises in international agreements is extensive, spanning the Budapest Memorandum (1994), Minsk Agreements (2014–2015), arms control treaties (INF, Open Skies, New START), and numerous ceasefires. Violations began early in his tenure (e.g., Istanbul Document, 1999) and escalated with aggressive actions in Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014, 2022). Partial compliance, such as in prisoner exchanges or the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was short-lived and driven by self-interest. Russia’s actions reflect a strategy of using agreements as tools for delay or leverage, eroding trust in its commitments. Any future agreements would require robust enforcement to counter this track record.

Posted in , ,

33 responses to “Putin’s Broken Promises”

  1. Scott O Avatar

    “The bottom line is that Putin has been and continues to be a lying sumbich.”
    No argument from me on that point.
    And as long as he sees the rest of the major powers in Europe as unserious about having a military that can resist him, he’ll keep causing trouble.
    I’m sure this invasion of Ukraine has cost him more than he bargained for, but that seems to have made him even more determined to see it through.
    What NATO needs to do is to learn from this – and I don’t see that happening.

    Like

  2. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    …and I guess that the United Nations peacekeeping force won’t be coming to Ukraine’s aid until there’s a ceasefire, which Trump apparently wants to bypass.
    The United Nations is a pretty impotent organization but at least having the blue helmets around would be a symbolic presence.

    Like

  3. gjrebane Avatar

    RH 431pm – “… until there’s a ceasefire, which Trump apparently wants to bypass.” Huh??!! It was Trump who first proposed a ceasefire, and unsuccessfully proposed it again to Putin last Friday. It was Putin who demanded that the ceasefire be skipped in favor going directly to a war-ending peace treaty.

    Like

  4. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    I would posit to you that, absent NATO expansion into eastern Europe and in particular into Georgia and Ukraine which border the Black Sea and Russia’s base in Sevastopol, none of these “promises” would have been broken. While one side can point to Putin “breaking promises,” the other side can point to broken promises by the West related to NATO expansion made in the early 1990s. Ukraine and Georgia have long been red lines for Russia. Indeed, Russia has had a naval base at Sevastopol since the late 1700s and has fought a handful of wars to secure its place in Russia. The West has no problem crossing other countries red lines, but this time the West found out. As I stated previously, GW Bush called for NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia in 2008. Putin said no – redline. The West ignored the warnings. The West played FAFO. Take a deal and move on. Another redline is Kaliningrad. If the Baltics fuck around, they will likely find out too.
    Also, does not the Rebane Doctrine also call for zero sum game with Russia in which the West must win and Russia must lose?

    Like

  5. gjrebane Avatar

    BarryP 1258pm – Zero-sum game with Russia? Not at all Barry. It all depends on what game Putin wants to play. If he continues playing what he has declared to the world that Russia is destined to restore its former Cold War borders and he will implement that destiny, as he is already doing, then yes, it can and should be a zero-sum game – Russia loses, the West wins. But if he is willing to remain in his post-1991 borders, honor his agreements, and become a trading partner to the international community then the game will definitely be win-win.
    China, a very backward country in 1991, has already shown how it can be done. Until very recently China had an economy that was in the middle ages. It manufactured and exported little besides foodstuffs. Then the CCP eased up and allowed a good dose of capitalism to blossom, and it was off to the races. Now China is the second largest economy in the world manufacturing and exporting the most advanced products and technologies imaginable. Competing aggressively with established developed countries all over the globe.
    Russia chose a different path and its products and services are nowhere to be seen. All it can sell is what its corrupt oligarchs can dredge out of the ground. And all that it makes is more war machinery and war so it can manifest its self-anointed destiny. Russia offers the world nothing but a zero-sum game based on conquest.

    Like

  6. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Does Russophile Barry P. remember that Ukraine was granted independence by Moscow in the early 1990s?

    Like

  7. Christel Rauber Avatar
    Christel Rauber

    Russia” is misleading. NATO’s eastward expansion was not driven by aggression, but by the free choice of sovereign states seeking protection from Russian influence.
    Countries like Poland and the Baltic states joined NATO voluntarily after the Cold War, driven by concerns over Russian actions in places like Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine. There was no legally binding promise to halt NATO expansion; alleged assurances are historical misunderstandings.
    These nations sought NATO membership to safeguard their independence — not because NATO was trying to threaten Russia. The alliance’s “open door” policy supports the sovereign right of states to choose their security arrangements.
    Putin uses the “NATO encroachment” narrative for political purposes, even though Russia itself has repeatedly destabilized its neighborhood.
    In short: NATO enlargement was a response to Eastern Europe’s security needs, not Western expansionism.This is thevanswer of perplexity.ai

    Like

  8. gjrebane Avatar

    Re our ongoing and important debate about Russia’s geo-strategic goals. We are fortunate to have an intellectual Russophile like my friend BarryP in these pages doing a yeoman’s job interpreting Russia’s history with the west and defending Putin’s policies and actions. Such a first person exchange is a valuable part of the intellectual smorgasbord that RR seeks to serve its readers and commenters. Thank you all.

    Like

  9. Christel Rauber Avatar
    Christel Rauber

    Another example to demonstrate Putin’s aggression and lies are Putin’s wars in Chechnya which were driven by several motives:
    Officially, Russia claimed the wars were “anti-terror operations” to fight extremism and preserve the country’s territorial integrity.
    Power consolidation: Experts agree the conflicts helped Putin boost his popularity and establish himself as Russia’s strong leader after Yeltsin.
    Stabilization: The wars aimed to restore order in post-Soviet Russia and weaken opposition forces.
    State strength: By crushing Chechen resistance, Putin demonstrated Russia’s renewed power and discouraged other separatist movements.
    Propaganda: The narrative of fighting terrorism was used to justify harsh tactics and gain public support.
    In short, the Chechen wars allowed Putin to strengthen his control, stabilize Russia, suppress dissent, and reinforce national identity. Again text by perplexity.ai

    Like

  10. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Christel, Punchy and Jeffie both refuse to identify the term used to describe socialists who believe in an end stage of a seizure of the means of production.
    Could you help them out?

    Like

  11. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    ” free choice of sovereign states” – C Rauber
    I’m afraid that ‘sovereign states’ don’t have free choice. Policy is a combination of history, inertia, hundreds of important people and millions of peons all tugging on a rope. Viewing countries as giant humans with the attitude and drive of an individual is a sure road to sloppy thinking.

    Question. What drives this? My best guess is that people are attracted to stories and think by analogy. I doubt our AI lords ‘n masters will suffer this to the same degree.

    re: Gregory@11:54. While you are obviously fishing for ‘communist’ I really think a lot of what pushes that along is simply folks wanting to achieve rank/status/wealth. Whether it’s a girl job up at the SBC, county executive, or some push by Ibram Kendi (nee Rogers), lining your pockets by both moving upward in and growing an organization, particularly the rent seeking variety, the result seems the same. God knows how many Jews died or people went to the GULAG so that some fool could get a promotion.

    Like

  12. gjrebane Avatar

    Re ‘free choice of sovereign states’ is a useful concept to the extent that free choice does exist anywhere. Sovereign states have a free choice in the same ‘way’ that lesser jurisdictions and individuals feel they exercise freedom to choose among alternatives. Of course there are always exogenous and endogenous constraints which shape our alternatives. But in the end it is an organization’s or individual’s agency which lets them define their own utility function which they then can extremize by their choice from the available alternatives.

    Like

  13. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    re: GR@1:00PM
    Hard disagree.
    I think that ‘free choice’ in this context is purest anthropomorphism.

    Like

  14. gjrebane Avatar

    scenes 117pm – then what would you label the cognitive process I described, and what is your own definition of a sentient being exercising ‘free choice’?

    Like

  15. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    ‘free choice of sovereign states’ – I think another way of saying it in the context of C Rauber’s 928AM is that NATO membership was not forced on the member states.
    They had a choice. I believe they also have to be approved by NATO.

    Like

  16. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    RH stated: “Ukraine was granted independence by Moscow in the early 1990s?”
    No. Moscow did not grant Ukraine independence. Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine entered into the Belovezhskaya Accord in early December of 1991 creating the CIS and effectively making Gorbachev the leader of a country that no longer existed after the accords. Moscow had no choice in the matter and with the lowering of the hammer and sickle and the raising of the tri-color Russian flag over the Kremlin on Christmas Day 1991, the USSR ceased to exist.
    If you want to argue with me, don’t bring a knife to a gun fight.

    Like

  17. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    I had a longer comment to you George which may have disappeared into the ether.

    Like

  18. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    GJR @ 0811: “If he continues playing what he has declared to the world that Russia is destined to restore its former Cold War borders and he will implement that destiny, as he is already doing, then yes, it can and should be a zero-sum game – Russia loses, the West wins. But if he is willing to remain in his post-1991 borders, honor his agreements, and become a trading partner to the international community then the game will definitely be win-win.” If such allegation turns out to be true, I would support your consequence. I just don’t see the allegation as true that Putin intends to expand to Cold War borders.
    In his address after the beginning of the SMO, Putin declared as follows: “I have already said that Russia accepted the new geopolitical reality after the dissolution of the USSR. We have been treating all new post-Soviet states with respect and will continue to act this way. We respect and will respect their sovereignty, as proven by the assistance we provided to Kazakhstan when it faced tragic events and a challenge in terms of its statehood and integrity. However, Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today’s Ukraine.” http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
    In conclusion, Russia feels that current issues with Ukraine and the West are existential. I don’t see any Russian interest in the Baltics or Poland or Hungary. Indeed, I don’t think that Russians were that fond of the Baltics during the Cold War. Indeed, Russia seeks to maintain positive relations with former Soviet republics, but Ukraine and Georgia are issues relating to realpolitik rather than just expansion of borders or positive relations. If it turned out to not be the case as you suggest regarding wholesale expansion to Cold War borders, my position would adjust accordingly and be more in line with your thinking.
    Also, George, I want to thank you for your spirited conversation and the airing of well-thought-out argument and discussion. I am grateful for your forum and deeply enjoy these conversations as I take breaks from my writing schedule at the Lenin Library. Also, I rather like the moniker of Russophile. I do love Russian/Eurasian culture and the people and the language. It has been a passion of mine for over 35 years. That said, I am first and foremost an American to the core of my being. My goal here is to simply help others understand a different perspective. I do not expect anyone to agree with me but rather turn off their computer at night walking with, at a minimum, an understanding of where this side of the world is coming from.

    Like

  19. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Posted by: Barry Pruett | 19 August 2025 at 11:50 PM
    Feeling your oats I see, lol
    The point is Ukraine was no longer a part of the Soviet Union it was its own independent entity when USSR collapsed.
    Ukraine never “belonged” to the new Russia, therefore Putin has no right to think he can have it “back”.
    “The question as to whether the Belovezh Accords were enough in and of themselves to dissolve the Soviet Union with the agreement of only three republics (albeit three of the largest and most powerful republics) was resolved on 21 December 1991, when the representatives of 11 of the 12 remaining Soviet republics[c]—all except Georgia—signed the Alma-Ata Protocol, which reiterated both the end of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the CIS. Given that 11 of the republics now agreed that the Soviet Union no longer existed, the plurality of member-republics required for its effective continuance as a federal state was no longer in place.”
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belovezha_Accords

    Like

  20. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Barry, when the the isolated and insulated muscovites gather to swill vodka at the end of the day, how do they feel about losing so many of their compatriots to Putin’s War, and how do they feel about Putin mass murdering civilians?
    Do they think, or care, that their elections are rigged?

    Like

  21. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    The good old Russians,
    The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure https://share.google/zBU48OE8djMnvU4SE

    Like

  22. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    ‘Not one inch’s
    The 3 words that Putin apologists use to blame the West for Russian aggression https://share.google/5J058hWtMbD6K1UBt

    Like

  23. fish Avatar
    fish

    Barry, when the the isolated and insulated muscovites gather to swill vodka at the end of the day, how do they feel about losing so many of their compatriots to Putin’s War, and how do they feel about Putin mass murdering civilians?
    Do they think, or care, that their elections are rigged?

    Jesus Christ but you and Paul Raymond are the Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy of shame!
    Bad at it too!

    Like

  24. Scott O Avatar

    “…when the the isolated and insulated muscovites gather…”
    Yeah – not like BeerBelly and Paul –
    SHARP AS A TACK!!!
    Total comedy

    Like

  25. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    (the fish that blew Bubbles), LOL!

    Like

  26. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    Everyone here has a cellphone. I can assure you that, despite any internet restrictions, Russians are very cunning at workarounds. They lived through the USSR. They are likely better at discerning bullshit than Americans as a culture.
    As far as Russian and Ukrainian casualties, nobody likes that except Lindsay Graham. It is especially tough as Russians and Ukrainians are cultural siblings with whom Russians share a common cultural and ancestral bond. It is something that Russians often discuss in this context. That said, most Russians support the SMO.
    Do you have any evidence that elections here are rigged? I would love to read it.

    Like

  27. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    This weekend we walked past the old KGB building which now houses the FSB, and which formerly housed the NKVD. It is a beautiful six story building on Lubyanka Square in the heart of Moscow which has historically been the home of the nation’s security apparatus. As we walked by, I told my wife the Soviet account of this ornate building. According to Soviet citizens, the KGB building during Soviet times was the tallest building in the entire world. It was so tall that you can see Siberia from the basement.

    Like

  28. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Thanks Barry, yes I think the elections are rigged in Russia considering that the opposition party candidate simply gets poisoned.
    Are you free to rent a car and drive about the countryside, maybe head over to the Donbas and see what’s going on?

    Like

  29. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    Yes. I even opened a bank account.

    Like

  30. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    I see Putin is laughing at Trump’s ineffectual expressions of affection toward him as he continues to target civilians in Kiev with high-tech weaponry.
    As the butcher of Kiev continues his murderous rampage, Barry P’s compatriots blissfully sing
    “Катюша” as they swill their vodka.

    Like

  31. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Start ’em young
    https://youtu.be/ancB0j3BD1o

    Like

Leave a comment