[This is the first of which I hope will be several reports from Barry Pruett in Russia. Barry is a friend and a longtime reader of RR. We all wish him safe travels in a very harsh part of the world. gjr]
Barry Pruett
Well, it seems that Trump and Putin are going to meet and then after that they will both meet with Zelenskyy. It is interesting that Europe is being left out – a fact that has been pointed out extensively here. I do not think that the Russians have a huge problem with America right now, as they seem to be more disgusted with western Europe (Merz, Macron, Stamer). My prayer is that they can find a way to end the war, because there are a lot of people dying for no reason. I also hope that they meet and achieve peace while we are here. That would make the trip even more special than it already has been.
What is happening on the front in Ukraine is highly relevant to these negotiations. Russia is lava-rolling Ukraine in western Ukraine. It is not a question, but a simple and undeniable fact. Russia has Pokrovsk and Myrnograd (major logistical hubs for the war in Donbass) basically surrounded. Russians dropped leaflets to the Ukrainians holding out in Pokrovsk warning them to surrender before Russia closes the loop. Russia has acquired 100% of Lugansk, the bulk of Donetsk, and more than half of Kherson and Zaporozhia. Russia believes that it is more important to achieve its military objects than have a rapprochement with the USA.
As such, Russia has three main objectives. Istanbul Plus so to speak, similar to the agreement that Ukraine and Russia had in March of 2022 which was torpedoed by the West. First, Russia is taking the four above-referenced territories by force or by agreement. Second, Ukraine will never enter NATO. Third, Ukraine's military must be substantially reduced. It appears that these three items are existential for Russia, so until they are agreed or forced, the war will continue. Indeed, and in addition to NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia (Black Sea access) which is a much more in-depth conversation, much of the problem stemmed from the western half of Ukraine being predominantly ethnic Russians.
Prior to the war, these ethnic Russians were previously being persecuted by the Ukrainian government dominated by western (NATO) interests. Such persecution included but is not limited to restrictions on Russian language in schools and restrictions on Orthodox churches. Indeed, the in-law of a friend of mine had a church in Ukraine near Kharkov in 2022 when the war started. His family fled to Voronezh. He stayed with his church. Shortly after his family fled, the Ukrainians burned down his church and my friend's in-law disappeared. It is unknown whether they killed him or whether he was conscripted and sent to the front. In any event, his family has not heard from him in over three years.
Also, as Ukraine runs short on manpower, they are intensifying conscriptions and sending unwilling participants to the front. I saw a video yesterday of a man who was in the process of being detained for conscription. He looked to be in his mid-50s. He pulled the pin on a grenade that he was holding and told the conscriptors that if he goes, they go. My understating is that he was eventually detained.
Ukraine also passed a law men over 60 to enlist. Indeed, they are running out of bodies to put into the grinder and things are desperate. No doubt, these events are what is, in part, driving Trump's urgency. NATO is going to lose Biden's war, and there is nothing NATO can do about it. Of course, Putin and Trump want an offramp, but like in any mediation, they have been too far apart to get an agreement. With the front changing and the lava-rolling continuing, reality may be setting in for Ukraine and the West that it is only a matter of time and consequently the parties are getting closer to where this thing is going to end.
That's it for today. I have to get back to work! I would be glad to talk to you in more detail in a Zoom conference (if Zoom works) or by some other video method. We leave here in October and with then be in eastern Europe until Christmas. See you then hopefully.
[Later] Also, while you slept, Kirill Dmitiriev (Witkoff’s counterpart) announced that the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin next week has the potential to be “historic.”. The location has been chosen, but has not been released yet. That’s not really like that Russian hype stuff up like Trump does. They must’ve made a deal already.
rebanesruminations.com 
Leave a comment