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George Rebane

My tariff laments are on record in these pages.  I am not alone in my consternation about how the administration is conducting this part of our nation's economy.  CATO scholar Scott Lincicome sums up President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ 

Trump's reciprocal tariffs:

1) Impose hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes on Americans without public/congressional input;

2) Are based on secret calculations that have little, if any, connection to actual foreign trade barriers;

3) Ignore all US tariff/non-tariff barriers, which in some cases are quite high;

4) Are justified by a "national emergency" that reflects a total misunderstanding of how trade deficits work;

5) Disregard US trade agreement commitments, including ones made by Trump himself;

6) Will make us all poorer, and likely do real & lasting harm to the US economy (incl in manufacturing);

7) Embolden our adversaries around the world.

And those are just the ones off the top of my head.

[13apr25 update]  For those interested in a more scholarly and complete explanation of why balancing trade deficits is wrongheaded and harmful, here is a short paper – ‘Five Reasons Why the Focus on Trade Deficits is Misleading’ – from the Peterson Institute for International Economics written during Trump’s first term go-around with tariffs.  All of it is valid today.

Posted in , ,

40 responses to “Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs (updated 13apr25)”

  1. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Ribit, Ribit, Ribit
    The silver lining might be that, after Trump tosses everything into the air when it all settles things will work out better for everyone.

    Like

  2. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    George
    What are we supposed to believe from Trump when today he says:
    “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’ for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst! There was no Tariff ‘exception’ announced on Friday:”
    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-admin-walks-back-tariff-exemption-on-electronics_n_67fbf396e4b06646ea60b482
    On Friday he announced this
    “Trump exempts smartphones and computers from new tariffs”
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20xn626y81o
    This is guy. is a nut case and you can’t believe a word he says.
    Or Fridaywhen he said:

    Like

  3. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    delete this-It’s redundant
    “Or Friday when he said::

    Like

  4. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Paul Raymond Emery | 13 April 2025 at 04:37 PM
    This is guy. is a nut case and you can’t believe a word he says.

    Indeed….this is guy.
    And you morons lost to him twice!
    #funny

    Like

  5. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Gary Larson AKA fish
    Can you explain why Trump flipped on Tariffs on China twice this weekend?

    Like

  6. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Punchy McPunchy
    Why did you lie about me?

    Like

  7. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Paul Raymond Emery | 13 April 2025 at 05:06 PM
    Can you explain why Trump flipped on Tariffs on China twice this weekend?

    Nope!
    He is our agent of chaos though! Read your Herman Kahn!

    Like

  8. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Gregory
    Didn’t lie about you supporting Trump on any issue that has been presented on this blog. What is “Libertarian” about that? Trump is the total opposite of Libertarian because he believes in government control and Executive power.

    Like

  9. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Punchy McPunchface,
    You called me a “fake libertarian”.
    You lied to defame me.
    You prick.

    Like

  10. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Trump is less about government control than Democrats are.
    You don’t like Trump. I get that.
    He won. Deal with it.

    Like

  11. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Exactly Gregory then why do you support him on any issue I bring up? Show me one time you agreed with me about Trump on any issue? You say Trump believes in government control and Executive power which is contrary to Libertarian beliefs yet you never disagree with anything he does. Show me an example where you did disagree with Trump? .

    Like

  12. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    “Exactly Gregory then why do you support him on any issue I bring up?”
    You bring up issues that fit your preconcieved notions.
    Your TDS.

    Like

  13. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Show me one time you opposed Trump on this blog Gregory? You faithfully support him on any issue that has been brought up. Even George opposes him on some issues but not you.

    Like

  14. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Show me one time you were right about some horrid action of President Trump.

    Like

  15. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    In short, your problem, Punch, is your inability to keep facts straight and in context.

    Like

  16. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Look at the current economy Gregory. Trump promised :
    8/9/24:
    “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
    NBC Montana, Trump Rally in Bozeman, MT, YouTube
    (August 9, 2024).
    8/14/24
    “Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months”
    “Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
    PBS NewsHour, Trump Rally in North Carolina, YouTube
    (August 14, 2024).
    8/17/24
    “Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again. We’re going to make it affordable again.”
    “We’re going to get your energy prices down. We’re going to get your energy prices down by 50%.”
    PBS NewsHour, Trump speaks at campaign rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, YouTube
    (August 17, 2024).
    9/5/24
    @ 10:56 “We will bring our auto-making industry to the record levels of 37 years ago, and we’ll be able to do it very quickly through tariffs and other smart use of certain things that we have that other countries don’t.”
    @ 18:05 “Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon, bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares, and housing costs.”
    @ 48:04 “We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half. We think we can do that.”
    NBC News, Trump Addresses Economic Club Of New York, YouTube
    (September 18, 2024).
    9/29/24
    “We’re going to get the prices down. We have to get them down. It’s too much. Groceries, cars, everything. We’re going to get the prices down. While working Americans catch up, we are going to put a temporary cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. People are being made to pay 25%. Temporary ban.”
    Speech: Donald Trump Holds a Campaign Rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, Roll Call
    (September 29, 2024).
    10/1/24:
    “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that. We’ve got to bring it down.”
    PBS NewsHour, Trump delivers campaign remarks in Waunakee as vice presidential debate set to begin, YouTube
    (October 1, 2024).
    11/04/24
    “A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper”
    Former President Trump Campaigns in Pittsburgh, C-SPAN
    “We’re going to have prices down- I think you’re going to see some pretty drastic price reductions.”
    etc
    As you can see we’re not making any progress on any of these.
    https://doggett.house.gov/issues/trumps-economic-promises-timeline

    Like

  17. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Paul Raymond Emery | 13 April 2025 at 07:22 PM
    You are the saddest little old man I’ve ever known! Did you ever get that Pony the Santa in Macy’s said he’d bring?

    Like

  18. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Gary Larsen aka fish
    Are you saying you “know me” ?
    When did you ever meet me? When and where?
    Have you ever been to a gig I’ve played in or produced?
    Perhaps it was the Crest Theater where I produced the Leonard show for four years. You could have been in the group that wanted autographs after each show
    Let me know I’m curious where you met me,

    Like

  19. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Punch,
    I’d give it until Nov ’26 to form a preliminary judgement about Trump’s monetary policy, and reserve a final judgement for Nov ’28…
    No hurry… Trump will be President until the end of January 2029 no matter the job he does in the meantime.

    Like

  20. fish Avatar
    fish

    .Posted by: Paul Raymond Emery | 13 April 2025 at 09:00 PM
    Gary Larsen aka fish
    Are you saying you “know me” ?
    When did you ever meet me? When and where?
    Have you ever been to a gig I’ve played in or produced?
    Perhaps it was the Crest Theater where I produced the Leonard show for four years. You could have been in the group that wanted autographs after each show
    Let me know I’m curious where you met me,

    Ahhh…Mr. Literal to the end.
    I “know” you, as much as I care to know you through your constant bleating on RR’s…your sanctimony, your endless repetition of questions previously addressed, your obsession with Trump’s “lying” when you’ve been completely silent on the matter and seemingly happy being lied to by democrats for pretty much your entire life, your childlike insistence on taking Trump literally, your inability to grasp that whatever Trump is up to it probably won’t show tangible benefits (…it might not. I grant you that…this system has been really dysfunctional for 65+ years. Attempting to fix it will almost certainly break it!) for a while, and finally, your moronic inability to differentiate between “your” (the possessive) and “you’re” (the contraction of “you are”).
    Literally nothing you have to say is so urgent, so critically important to the discussion that you can’t take five minutes for a little self editing to make your posts a little easier to follow. This is to say nothing of making yourself look a little less ignorant as well in terms of process.
    PS: Never been an autograph hound Paul Raymond. Never understood the appeal of toting around a book full of somebody else’s scribbles. In any case, you can bet that I’d never be interested in the autograph of a guy whose sole claim to fame seems to be the retailing of some other guys work.
    PS2: “Gary Larsen”…..? Okay now I’m getting a little misty….Gary Larsen is high praise indeed! Love Gary Larsen’s work and would definitely stand in line with a copy of one of his works for an autograph!
    Thanks Paul Raymond….that was really a nice thing to say! I only wish I could be worthy of the reference!

    Like

  21. George Rebane Avatar

    Administrivia – With some disappointment I note that the comment streams of my topical posts have often become repositories of right/left name calling and mudslinging. I want those comment streams to reflect readers’ opinions and commentaries that address and/or expand on what I have written. The sandbox is the repository for thoughts about topics on which I have not recently posted and any other gratuitous vitriol you care to include. I’ll do my best to remove the irrelevant and irreverent comments from the topical posts. Thank you.

    Like

  22. fish Avatar
    fish

    Apologies George! Delete as you see fit!

    Like

  23. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    And George, when a “reader” chooses to write defamatory diatribes about someone else in a comment stream… you do what?
    I understand Paul is a precious commodity here… the only left-liberal left for you to dance around, but he goes over the line from time to time.

    Like

  24. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    “For those interested in a more scholarly and complete explanation of why balancing trade deficits is wrongheaded and harmful…”
    George, I think you are misunderstanding the proposal by Trump… the tariffs are meant as a cattle prod to bring other countries to a negotiating table. It seems to be working fine.

    Like

  25. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 1113am – Not at all, I have lavishly included that hoped for tactic in all my criticisms of his tariff campaign. My problem is that his zigs and zags don’t come across to me and many learned observers as part of a well thought out negotiating strategy. And his arguments focusing only on import/export deficits is disturbing. Any casual student of international trade knows that all nations have tools beyond tariffs with which to practice protectionism. Apologies that I come across so dense to you.

    Like

  26. Scott O Avatar

    A bit long winded, but tariff-related:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-04-14/whether-mexican-lids-or-sativa-global-headache-awaits-us
    Short version:
    “One need not look very far to unearth arguments that the Chinese economy, weaker than ours, cannot withstand this heat. To which I respond that we’re talking about a dictatorship that has never gone more than a generation or two without executing a purge which killed and/or crippled millions. Meantime, here in the U.S. we become enraged at even minor inconveniences. Our equivalent of the Great Leap Forward – which may have taken out as many as twenty millions of their population – is being kept on hold for more than five minutes with our cable providers.
    I am thus not quite sure we have them quaking in their boots just yet.”
    Yep.

    Like

  27. George Boardman Avatar

    Dr. R, here’s an editorial suggestion:
    Cut-off Emery, Goodknight and Fish after they’ve each taken three shots at each other in any one thread. I know this goes against your preference to not censor commentators, but it gets really tedious scrolling through this crap to find a comment that’s actually worth thinking about.

    Like

  28. George Rebane Avatar

    ScottO 1209pm – the most commonly estimated deaths from the Great Leap Forward put them north of 45 million. My talks with Chinese expatriates whose families lived through that period (1959-1961) puts the actual number closer to 100 million. Mao outdid himself with the longer Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) where the body count was around 120 million. As the greatest killer in human history Mao wins hands down with Stalin second at 30-40 million and Hitler with a paltry 6-7 million. And we should remember that these numbers refer to democide – civilian deaths by their own government that were not related to wars or any military actions. “Democide refers to the intentional killing of an unarmed or disarmed person by government agents acting in their authoritative capacity…” See also ‘Death by Government’ (1964+) by RJ Rummel. In the 20th century governments killed their own people in numbers totaling by orders of magnitude more than killed in all the known wars of human history. We must never forget that governments can suddenly turn on their own and become the greatest ‘legitimate’ killers of all.

    Like

  29. George Rebane Avatar

    GeorgeB 1227pm – Agreed, “scrolling through this crap” is tedium to most readers of our comments of which a goodly number evince serious thought and a desire for deeper understanding. Thanks for the observation.

    Like

  30. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    George, and the uneducated haters in the streets ignore Mao who killed many times the number by Hitler.
    Swasticar my ass; I’d be happy to tone it down if the out and out slanders were jumped on by the proprietor.
    George, youv’e not been called a fake anything… why not?

    Like

  31. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 138pm – I’m too lazy to start adjudicating conversations between commenters even if I knew your definition of slander. I have better things to keep me busy. And I don’t understand your concluding question, please clarify.

    Like

  32. George Boardman Avatar

    Dr. R, I usually look at your blog a couple of times a week. If you haven’t posted anything new and the Recent Comments section suggests that Larry, Moe and Curly are at it again, I just move on to something else.

    Like

  33. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    George R, my definition of slander is remarkably similar to the legal definition.
    George B, nice slander there.

    Like

  34. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 256pm – your heightened sensitivity to slander may advise avoiding public communications in general. Doing a little research into the subject supports the conclusion that almost all public communications of a political nature today are slanderous, especially in broadcast commentary programs and online comment streams. Apparently society has become calloused in such usage, because you hear of practically no legal actions taken to suppress or punish expressions of slander.

    Like

  35. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    So, George, your reaction to Paul having submitted an entirely false and defamatory declaration about me on your blog is to… tell me to suck it up.
    Got it. You can’t be bothered to police your own sandbox, unless it treats you with less deference than you deem necessary.

    Like

  36. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 401pm – You pretty well nailed it. Slander accusations I won’t touch, but I draw the line at accepting threats against persons or property. Would appreciate being informed of those.

    Like

  37. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Winning!
    “China reportedly orders its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries amid US trade war”
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/15/china-orders-airlines-to-halt-boeing-jet-deliveries-us-tariffs

    Like

  38. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    Trump holds all the cards! LoL!
    https://x.com/AesPolitics1/status/1911524744832200813

    Like

  39. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    [13apr25 update].
    We also learned during the first term that ‘Trump don’t read’ he only listens to the loudest sycophant in the room.

    Like

  40. Resurrected Hillbilly Avatar
    Resurrected Hillbilly

    The Missing Link?
    The strange link between Trump’s tariffs and incel ideology
    Meet the lonely men who think the tariffs will get them girlfriends.
    https://www.vox.com/culture/408578/trum-tariffs-incels-misogyny-email-jobs

    Like

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