George Rebane
The Lip from the Hip has done it again. With his 18jul24 convention acceptance speech he took a cinched November win and threw it back into a campaign maelstrom welcomed only by Kamala Harris and the Dems (and Putin and Xi). My own immediate reaction to his convention performance was posted here, and since then literally every left and right commentator has agreed that Trump blew it.
Trump’s self-declared return to a barroom brawl mode of campaigning has put his road to the White House back in play, even with the likes of an unaccomplished opponent and grifter like Kamala as his opponent. WSJ’s Dan Henninger summarizes her chances in today’s paper (here).
With a flawed candidate like Trump already problematic when he was running against Bumblebrain, on 15 June I did a little work in extracting my own assessment of Trump’s probability of winning in November (described here). The result (0.45) was not promising. Given all that has happened since – assassination attempt, enthusiastic Republican convention, reversion to rambling stump speeches, … – I redid my probability assessment, hoping against hope for a better outcome. The resulting probability came in at slightly north of 0.48, not much of an improvement when considering the woulda/coulda/shouldas.
Given her documented far left ideology and promised public policy initiatives a Kamala Harris presidency would be cataclysmic for our republic. And Trump’s loose cannon tactics promise to make the interval to November a real nailbiter. Is there no one on his team of advisors with the courage and gravitas who can tell him to stuff a sock in it and give acting presidential a try?
rebanesruminations.com 
237 responses to “Trumps November Chances – 25jul24 update”
#sadoldman
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 09 August 2024 at 02:08 PM
What about trumps service in the US military what can you tell us about that fish?
WAIT!!!! What the hell happened to calling me David “fish” Larsen?
Forgot already huh?
Anyway another clumsy Weasel Brand™ trick question….everyone here knows Trump didn’t serve. Of course neither did Weasel approved luminaries like Clinton and Obama! Certainly the politician at the top of the ticket this go around didn’t. She did serve in other ways however….and brings a unique skillset to the table.
Anyway Weasel I hope that answers your question. Write it down or do a screen cap so you don’t have to ask it again fifty times in typical Weasel Bot fashion!
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Oh tell us about trumps military service fish. What do you know about his families service in the military his sons for example or his dad. He is such a patriot he must’ve served in the military.
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 09 August 2024 at 02:57 PM
???
I’m certainly not going to do your Trump Family military history homework for you. How many times do we have to cover the same ground?
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Gosh and golly fish you don’t know about trumps family’s military history? I thought you knew everything about Trump you’re such a believer in him. Never heard you say a bad thing about it. Perhaps you haven’t done your homework about his military history. Very simple just google Trump family military history and you’ll find out all you need to know. Hope that helps you
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psul: “trumps family’s military history? ”
It seems to me that modern Presidents are pretty much in the same boat.
Bush II – fun and games in the National Guard, although aren’t F-102s kind of a widow maker? I don’t remember
Clinton – draft avoider
Obama – wrong age for draft
Trump – draft avoider
Biden – draft avoider
Harris – a chick
Aside from that guy from Minnesota’s overstatement of his time in the military, which doesn’t strike me as much of a big deal, it’s a non-starter as an issue. It’s like worrying about what an enormous sleaze Mr. Harris is. BFD.
Truth is, the people who’ll push Harris over the finish line will be insane cat ladies, the people currently in charge of destroying school districts, HR departments, county and city governments, marching with signs for 3rd trimester abortion as single-issue voters. As someone who can’t tell a man from a woman, we’ll count Paul as an honorary member.
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 09 August 2024 at 03:21 PM
Gosh and golly fish you don’t know about trumps family’s military history? I thought you knew everything about Trump you’re such a believer in him.
Actually Weasel I’m not.
I told you about three months in to the Brainstem Administration (You had already started your Pink Pussy Hat close order drill practice when the Trump rumbles started back in spring of 2020 if you recall) that I didn’t think he’d run and if he ran I didn’t think he’d win.
We are at that point now.
It’s okay….no need to be so old man frantic….they’ll almost certainly find a way to carry Heels up Harris across the finish line and you can die contented.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/09/watch-tim-walz-in-2007-accepted-praise-from-pelosi-for-serving-on-the-battlefield/
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Posted by: scenes | 09 August 2024 at 03:39 PM
Bush II – fun and games in the National Guard, although aren’t F-102s kind of a widow maker? I don’t remember
The early Century Series fighters were a bit of a circus and the F-102 was in that group. F-105 and F-106 were pretty decent aircraft.
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Flips Script on Republicans With Small Govt Talking Point…
Yes….and that would mean she’s lying.
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-small-government-abortion-tim-walz-talking-point-1937118
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OUCH the chaplain too –
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/chaplain-of-tim-walz-s-national-guard-battalion-calls-vp-pick-cowardly-for-abandoning-unit/ar-AA1oxyRn?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=5f38e39c49184c0685458682e79accf9&ei=94
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The propaganda ministry is hard at work but going so far over the top they have to issue corrections! LOL
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnns-brianna-keilar-walks-back-jd-vance-swipe-following-backlash-he-served-honorably-iraq
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Clean up on isle 666 –
Tim Walz ‘misspoke’ about using weapons ‘in war,’ Harris campaign says: report
Walz’s military record has come under heavy criticism since being named as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tim-walz-misspoke-using-weapons-war-harris-campaign-says-report
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You got that right baby! =
A Tsunami of Right-Wing Dark Money Is Barreling Toward Harris and Walz
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/tsunami-wing-dark-money-barreling-152219723.html
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Its the economy stupid –
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/a-new-survey-shows-americans-say-fast-food-is-now-a-luxury/vi-BB1npYDY?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=d4f739e533e949139309c99a7aca43f2&ei=141
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“Tim Walz ‘misspoke’ about using weapons ‘in war,’ Harris campaign says”
The “Harris campaign says”?
What’s wrong with little Timmy’s mouth?
What’s he got to say?
No wonder he bugged before he had to deploy – no courage, no honor, no manhood.
Ah – the perfect pasty white little dough boy for the left to run as a candidate. Kamala knows he’s so weak, he won’t try to correct her blather.
The really scary thing is the willingness for the Dems to lower the bar ever further for their candidates to see how far down they can go and still get folks like Paul the Hillbilly to vote for them.
They haven’t reached bottom yet – Biden couldn’t complete sentences and Kamala doesn’t know how to end them.
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correction – Paul AND the Hillbilly…
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.The draft ended 30 June 1973..
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fishy 4:40 – Flips Script on Republicans – further:
“Harris promises to go tough on border security”
Uh, when? Why not years ago?
Could have sworn the Dems said the border was secure…
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/09/harris-promises-to-go-tough-on-border-security-00173485
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“.The draft ended 30 June 1973.”
Which admittedly makes it harder to avoid at this point, unless the progressive bureaucracy running gubmint decides to go to war with Iran and Russia simultaneously, while strafing Chinese shipping somewhere.
Another interesting bit of draft trivia is the Selective Service free males, a small cohort.
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Don 9:02 – re the link.
You need to post the money quote:
“Massive pools of dark right-wing money are soon going to clobber us. Will Democracy survive this onslaught by the morbidly rich?”
O-M-G!!!!
Paul and the Hillbilly better hide under their beds!
I haven’t read such over-wrought blather in years and that’s saying something. “The morbidly rich”? That’s a new one on me. And how much have the lefty billionaires (morbidly rich) spent? As Paul asks “who cares”?
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lol. What a Muppet.
“This is crazy. Kamabla is just giving the same speech word for word at all these rallies”
https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1822106056144925092
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Latest Polls-Yesterday-All Harris…
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
Looking grim for Trump especially after his pathetic news conference yesterday
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Trump loses in every new poll yesterday. Incredible decline since Harris joined the race
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
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Ok so she hit the high water mark keeping her mouth shut but thats over –
Kamala Harris Promises Amnesty for Millions of Illegal Aliens, Nationwide Mail-In Voting
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/10/kamala-harris-promises-amnesty-millions-illegal-aliens-nationwide-mail-in-voting/
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George
This is a hoot. Do you consider it a lie or just plain stupid when Trump said it was Willie Brown that was with him on the helicopter and was bad mouthing Kamala Harris?
Here’s a quote from Trump and a link to the truth.
“We were in a helicopter, going to a certain location together, and there was an emergency landing. This was not a pleasant landing,” he continued.
“And Willie was—he was a little concerned,” Trump said. “So I know him, but I know him pretty well. I mean, I haven’t seen him in years. But he told me terrible things about her. But this is what you’re telling me, anyway, I guess. But he had a big part in what happened with Kamala. But he—he, I don’t know, maybe he’s changed his tune. But he—he was not a fan of hers very much, at that point.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/09/trump-plane-crash-california-00173487
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Was your latest slander against me a lie or just fucking stupid?
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 10 August 2024 at 05:38 PM
I would have thought someone who labeled himself as his own personal flavor of libertarian would be upset when politicians from both major parties lie. He doesn’t! He only cares when Republicans lie! Nary a whisper about President Brainstem (before they locked him back in the Democrat used president basement) routinely lying.
Wonder why that is?
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Its the waltz way –
Minnesota teacher pension fund under Walz accused of ‘cooking the books’ with unrealistic gains: report
‘Even Bernie Madoff didn’t claim to beat the market every single year,’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/minnesota-teacher-pension-fund-under-walz-accused-cooking-books-unrealistic-gains-low-fees
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What a guy –
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/10/former-division-commander-confirms-tim-walz-knew-upcoming-iraq-deployment-before-retiring-he-knew/
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The hyena is so bereft of a platform or ideas she has to copy Trump –
Kamala just announced she is stealing President Trump’s “NO TAX ON TIPS” proposal.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/10/kamala-harris-copies-trumps-no-taxes-on-tips-campaign-promise/
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“The hyena is so bereft of a platform or ideas she has to copy Trump -”
I doubt there’ll be any platform at this rate.
The DNC strategy appears to be ads, free concerts, social media via AI, send the candidates out grinning like jack-o’-lanterns with a lot of fist pumping and a bit of reading of vanilla teleprompter stuff.
MSM is in on the ploy. After the whole Republicans-are-weird, Trump-is-weird, Vance-is-weird thing, the next word of the day is ‘Joy’. Given the ‘Strength Through Joy’ campaign of 90 years ago, this makes good sense.
Basically they are selling soap or toothpaste.
Given that ‘progressives’ not only want to change the world but are on a roll, I’d love to know what the desired end game is. What should gun law, abortion law, immigration law, men-in-dresses law, reparations law, affirmative action law be?
Naturally, you’ll never hear that since it’s probably some ridiculous/undefendable stance or the other. Whatever the Blue Mob decides is likely to happen given that the surveillance and enforcement mechanism are largely in place. Watch the UK for the US’s future. That’s the real story right now, not US domestic politics.
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Posted by: scenes | 11 August 2024 at 06:11 AM
Watch the UK for the US’s future. That’s the real story right now, not US domestic politics.
“To Build a Castle”……
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Gimme dat ol time religion…..,.
https://www.rgj.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2024/08/11/PREN/74755909007-img-9156.JPG?crop=3654,2056,x0,y342&width=1320&height=740&format=pjpg&auto=webp
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“If the enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is real, it’s very strange—an ecstatic embrace of a cloak being used to hide tyrants who are clearly hellbent on the subjugation of the citizenry—including all the people cheering. Wrong as I believe them to be, I understand why many will vote for her. But I don’t understand why anyone is excited enough to go and wave signs at an event.”
– Bret Weinstein on X.
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fish
Check this out if you dare…I’m wondering if Trump will even make it to the finish line with lies like this.
Old Man Trump Mixes Up California Politicians in Weird Kamala Story
This was possibly the strangest lie Donald Trump told during his Mar-a-Lago press conference.
https://newrepublic.com/post/184715/donald-trump-kamala-harris-california-politicians-brown
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Here’s the truth about Trumps Helicopter lies:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-holden-donald-trump-helicopter-emergency-landing-story_n_66b6df2ce4b084249ca16dd3
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