George Rebane
The Lip from the Hip has done it again. With his 18jul24 convention acceptance speech he took a cinched November win and threw it back into a campaign maelstrom welcomed only by Kamala Harris and the Dems (and Putin and Xi). My own immediate reaction to his convention performance was posted here, and since then literally every left and right commentator has agreed that Trump blew it.
Trump’s self-declared return to a barroom brawl mode of campaigning has put his road to the White House back in play, even with the likes of an unaccomplished opponent and grifter like Kamala as his opponent. WSJ’s Dan Henninger summarizes her chances in today’s paper (here).
With a flawed candidate like Trump already problematic when he was running against Bumblebrain, on 15 June I did a little work in extracting my own assessment of Trump’s probability of winning in November (described here). The result (0.45) was not promising. Given all that has happened since – assassination attempt, enthusiastic Republican convention, reversion to rambling stump speeches, … – I redid my probability assessment, hoping against hope for a better outcome. The resulting probability came in at slightly north of 0.48, not much of an improvement when considering the woulda/coulda/shouldas.
Given her documented far left ideology and promised public policy initiatives a Kamala Harris presidency would be cataclysmic for our republic. And Trump’s loose cannon tactics promise to make the interval to November a real nailbiter. Is there no one on his team of advisors with the courage and gravitas who can tell him to stuff a sock in it and give acting presidential a try?
rebanesruminations.com 
237 responses to “Trumps November Chances – 25jul24 update”
So from now on I will refer to you as David “fish” Larsen. Is that ok with you?
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 07 August 2024 at 10:46 AM
You’ll forget….but I have no objections!
Frankly I’m surprised that you since obsess over it so you didn’t start a decade ago!
Memory issues I guess!
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Punchy the Weasel,
1) Still unsigned, literally not convicted yet.
2) Yet the D ticket is behind in Pennsylvania.
3) And you still pretend to be a mindreader, claiming to know the motivation of folks not following your lead of full real name postings.
The exhuberance will continue until the Molotov cocktails start pouring on rioters.
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Trump crazy……Heels Up Harris…uh ….heels up….now throw in Stolen Valor with Tampon Tim!
Shaping up to be a helluva day at sea sir!
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Crap….dropped Timmah’s link!
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stolen-valor-walz-under-fire-bailing-iraq-tour-then-lying-about-combat-deployment
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The woke squad runs the party now –
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/nbc-s-todd-says-walz-pick-is-a-yellow-flag-shows-that-harris-may-be-easily-controlled-by-far-left/vi-AA1ooMRZ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=f1036a09a4724513a936aab7f575c1b6&ei=86
😉
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Here is one for Dow Jones Industrials Maven Don Bessee,
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fox-news-host-knocks-trump-133221737.html
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Biden ‘not confident at all’ in peaceful transfer of power if Don loses…
Biden ‘not confident at all’ at his ability to not make “pudding” in his pants later!
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Gregory Trump was found guilty by a jury. Are you claiming that didn’t happen? What is the further process you’re referring to?
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Best timeline of all.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/olympics/article-13703059/Olympic-Games-official-accreditation-revoked-caught-camera-making-controversial-white-supremacy-hand-gesture-event-Paris.html
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Not even good liars even with all that practice –
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnns-jim-acosta-forced-correct-harris-surrogate-suggesting-jd-vance-never-served-military
😉
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I see the po’ ol’ ponytail of ignorance is in fine form @ 516. LOL
😉
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And it gets worse for waltz –
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/07/report-tim-walz-falsely-claimed-veteran-afghanistan/
😉
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Don Are you saying that Trump was not found guilty by a jury in a felony trial? If he was found guilty he’s guilty of committing a felony and therefore is a felon. Do you disagree with that?
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Punchy Weasel 746p
The judge apparently hasn’t signed and filed the final orders. N[t a felon yet, not that the lawfare deserves any respect.
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Going all in on ignorance tonight eh –
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/judge-delays-ruling-on-presidential-immunity-in-trumps-hush-money-case
https://apnews.com/article/trump-hush-money-new-york-immunity-8db10bfa2631bbafdb32a35241a79e4f
😉
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It only took 2 days to out waltz –
Veteran who served in Tim Walz’s battalion addresses stolen valor accusations: ‘Far darker than people think’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/veteran-who-served-tim-walzs-battalion-addresses-stolen-valor-accusations-far-darker-than-people-think
😉
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Gregory I have found no reference to something that wasn’t signed by the judge can you provide me a link I’d like to know what it is you’re referring to I’m not saying it’s not true I’m just saying I can’t find any documentation to back up that statement
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 07 August 2024 at 08:42 PM
….. I have found no reference to something that wasn’t signed by the judge can you provide me a link….
You don’t read links….
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Ya aint the ponytail of ignorance for nothing @842
😉
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OH thats going to leave a mark –
CNN correspondent Tom Foreman delivered a fact-check Wednesday against Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz after he claimed to have carried weapons “in war.”
Foreman appeared on “CNN News Central” alongside show co-host Brianna Keilar, where he discussed a previous claim Walz made that suggesting he carried weapons in war while speaking about gun control. Foreman stated there is “no evidence” to suggest the Democratic governor’s comments were true.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/no-evidence-cnn-reporter-delivers-devastating-fact-check-on-walz-s-claims-about-military-service/ar-AA1oqoGs?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=d0af2827dd3548349a91577a9218598a&ei=16
😉
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Nice try, disguising a Daily Caller article as MSN news, and of course douchebag Donnie gets it wrong again, must not have read the article,
“Walz did make a comment speaking to a group, he’s done it a couple of times, where he has used language that has suggested that he carried weapons in a fighting situation,” Foreman said. “As you know, with your contact with the military, I know from coming from a military family, there is a difference between being in a combat area, being involved at a time of war and actually being in a position where people are shooting at you. There is no evidence that at any time Governor Walz was in a position of being shot at, and some of his language could easily be seen to suggest that he was.”
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BTW, Where is 4-F ChickenHawk ‘bone Spurs’ Trump these days, in his bunker nursing his “war wound”? Will Biden will give him a Purple Heart?
I saw a whole lot of Duck and Cover going on when the shooting started at the rally, and not by the crowd.
Coward?
Not very Patton-like.
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Owww….that’s going to leave a mark!
https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1821344414377082881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1821344414377082881%7Ctwgr%5Eb0285ba4dd8aaebef87e81a3bd9356a5fb754dff%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F665785%2F
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David “fish” Larsen
My request was for Gregory
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Punchy Weasel 754a
Am too busy now, request denied.
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 08 August 2024 at 07:54 AM
David “fish” Larsen
My request was for Gregory
Irrelevant…it doesn’t change the fact that you stated publicly that you don’t read links.
Something about being far too busy, busy, busy!
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So Gregory admits that he has no documentation to verify his contention that Trump is not a convicted felon. Just as I thought, total bullshit from a dedicated Trumpster.
A simple link will do Gregory. Why is that so difficult?
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 08 August 2024 at 10:18 AM
A simple link will do Gregory. Why is that so difficult?
As you’ve stated you don’t read links……
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My question is to Gregory not you. I read links all the time. I don’t know where you got that idea from but I don’t re-links if there’s eight or 12 of them there that might’ve been what I was referring to anyway this doesn’t involve you so thanks for dropping out of the conversation.
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Sorry for the typos I’m sending this from my iPhone
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Another basement run –
Kamala Harris giving reporters ‘facetime’ on her plane but it’s off the record: Report
A person close to the Harris campaign suggested there was no ‘incentive’ for her to take more questions
https://www.foxnews.com/media/kamala-harris-giving-reporters-facetime-her-plane-its-off-record-report
Kamala Harris’ past ‘damaging moments’ on her team’s mind as she has yet to speak to the press, reporter says
Harris has not granted any interviews or press conferences since becoming the Democratic nominee
https://www.foxnews.com/media/kamala-harris-past-damaging-moments-her-teams-mind-she-has-yet-speak-press-reporter-says
Walz in 2010 said plan to curb Social Security, increase retirement age was ‘very similar’ to his approach
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/walz-2010-said-plan-included-social-security-benefit-curbs-very-similar-his-approach
😉
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Yup –
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/08/nolte-national-poll-shows-trump-vance-5-over-harris-a-walz/
😉
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 08 August 2024 at 01:12 PM
My question is to Gregory not you. I read links all the time. I don’t know where you got that idea from but I don’t re-links if there’s eight or 12 of them there that might’ve been what I was referring to anyway this doesn’t involve you so thanks for dropping out of the conversation.
My question is to Gregory not you.
I know that. Maybe you should contact him directly instead of posting questions in an open forum where people respond to comments not addressed to them specifically on a regular basis.
I read links all the time.
Well for our new readers I think I need to point out that at one time you very loudly proclaimed that you didn’t!
I don’t know where you got that idea from but I don’t re-links if there’s eight or 12 of them there that might’ve been what I was referring to anyway this doesn’t involve you so thanks for dropping out of the conversation..
I got that idea from you…..after posting links and inquiring if you had bothered to read them you said publicly that you didn’t. Far too busy!
but I don’t re-links I know…you don’t read links.
anyway this doesn’t involve you so thanks for dropping out of the conversation.
I have to wonder if at some point in the future if you will take your own advice…..Given what I know of you I’m forced to think that you won’t!
Pretty sure I won’t either.
You could send Gregory a letter through the post.
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I don’t read junk mail from weirdos.
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Trump – August 8th ramblings- The gift that keeps on giving.
https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/08/08/trump-debates-florida-harris-gop-2024
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Hillbilly, you must be a weirdo.
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WOW thats some original rapier wit @309 NOT! ROFLOL –
😉
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So cnn admits the hyena is not ready for prime time as we are all well aware lol. Marginally more functional than creepy grampa joe and unable to have a conversation without a teleprompter. cue hyena soundtrack! –
CNN mocked for article accusing Trump campaign of trying to ‘goad’ Harris into doing an interview
The report said the vice president has ‘historically been more vulnerable’ in interviews compared to scripted speeches
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-mocked-article-accusing-trump-campaign-trying-goad-harris-doing-interview
😉
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Public benefit, more like benefit for socialist dems and creepy grampa and the hyena –
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/08/report-pakistani-charged-with-murder-plot-against-trump-was-allowed-into-u-s-on-public-benefit-parole/
😉
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Ya what the hell are you doing in office mr 25th amendment! –
President Biden asks for direction during Rangers’ World Series celebration at White House: ‘What am I doing?’
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/president-biden-asks-direction-during-rangers-world-series-celebration-white-house-what-am-i-doing
😉
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Ya what the hell are you doing in office mr 25th amendment! –
President Biden asks for direction during Rangers’ World Series celebration at White House: ‘What am I doing?’
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/president-biden-asks-direction-during-rangers-world-series-celebration-white-house-what-am-i-doing
😉
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“So Gregory admits that he has no documentation to verify his contention that Trump is not a convicted felon. Just as I thought, total bullshit from a dedicated Trumpster.
A simple link will do Gregory. Why is that so difficult?
Posted by: Paul Emery | 08 August 2024 at 10:18 AM ”
I told you, Punch. I was too busy to fulfill your demand, infantile as it was. Knowing something does not mean one can spit up a link immediately when an idiot demands it.
Am guessing you didn’t read what I posted when I had the time.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/donald-trump-isn-t-a-convicted-felon-just-yet-and-can-still-pursue-these-options-to-fight-damning-verdict-says-yale-law-professor/ar-BB1nUSPS
Here you go, Punchy Weasel.
Posted by: Gregory | 08 August 2024 at 01:01 PM
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I had no idea installed candidate Harris was such a wit….
I guess she’s referring to the “Four Freedoms”. No, not those four freedoms…not the FDR “Four Freedoms”…that’s just crazy talk!
Pretty sure Kamala is referring to these Four Freedoms: The Freedom to have as many abortions as one wants….and at taxpayer expense! The freedom to have all the unprotected anal sex…consequences be damned…you want. Again the taxpayer will subsidize your lifestyle! The freedom to have your naughty bits mutilated while still unable to make an adult decision….more tax dollars (and if you want to go back….no problem either). And perhaps the most important and cherished of the four…..the ability to wear the Greek Fishermans cap proudly in public without fear of mockery from the unenlightened!
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/08/08/kamala-harris-tim-walz-uaw-local-900-wayne-ford/74692616007/
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Yes…the republicans are terrified that there are photos of Stolen Valor Walz chopping firewood or shooting clay pigeons (Just more “Uncle Dick in the deer stand”).
But then the guy who wrote that was just six months ago….“Ridin with Biden….!”
This tells me two things…..that the writer probably “likes to ride side saddle” …the masculinity thing seems to both repel and fascinate (wink, wink) progressives.
And that journalists, when they aren’t completely useless are voluntary employees of TEAM EVIL. Best just to ignore them (and former “thems”) completely.
I’ll just leave these here Weasel…..no need for you to read them….not that you would anyway!
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-09/tim-walz-isn-t-a-typical-democrat-that-scares-republicans
https://www.timesleader.com/opinion/op-ed/1637759/francis-wilkinson-why-democrats-are-ride-or-die-for-biden
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I like it….
This guy is a 2 foot putt for the Babylon Bee. Who’s vetting these guys!
https://babylonbee.com/news/tim-walz-clarifies-that-hes-never-been-to-iraq-but-he-has-been-to-downtown-minneapolis-which-is-basically-the-same-thing#google_vignette
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Anybody care to engage in a discussion about Trump‘s military history? When did he serve in the military? Where did he serve in the military? Did his sons ever serve in the military? Did his dad ever serve in the military? Did any members of his family ever serve in the military?
Let me know who would like to talk about that
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 09 August 2024 at 01:39 PM
Anybody care to engage in a discussion about Trump‘s military history?
Sure….Trump has seen hostile fire exactly one more time than Tim Walz.
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What about trumps service in the US military what can you tell us about that fish?
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