George Rebane
The Lip from the Hip has done it again. With his 18jul24 convention acceptance speech he took a cinched November win and threw it back into a campaign maelstrom welcomed only by Kamala Harris and the Dems (and Putin and Xi). My own immediate reaction to his convention performance was posted here, and since then literally every left and right commentator has agreed that Trump blew it.
Trump’s self-declared return to a barroom brawl mode of campaigning has put his road to the White House back in play, even with the likes of an unaccomplished opponent and grifter like Kamala as his opponent. WSJ’s Dan Henninger summarizes her chances in today’s paper (here).
With a flawed candidate like Trump already problematic when he was running against Bumblebrain, on 15 June I did a little work in extracting my own assessment of Trump’s probability of winning in November (described here). The result (0.45) was not promising. Given all that has happened since – assassination attempt, enthusiastic Republican convention, reversion to rambling stump speeches, … – I redid my probability assessment, hoping against hope for a better outcome. The resulting probability came in at slightly north of 0.48, not much of an improvement when considering the woulda/coulda/shouldas.
Given her documented far left ideology and promised public policy initiatives a Kamala Harris presidency would be cataclysmic for our republic. And Trump’s loose cannon tactics promise to make the interval to November a real nailbiter. Is there no one on his team of advisors with the courage and gravitas who can tell him to stuff a sock in it and give acting presidential a try?
rebanesruminations.com 
237 responses to “Trumps November Chances – 25jul24 update”
Saw a cartoon that said MAKE AMERICA SAN FRANCISO HARRIS 2024 lol
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Ya sure lets compare records like inflation and oh ya the economy and of course the illegal invasion –
“Investors are even starting to ask recession-related questions and have started to review their economic slowdown playbooks.”
Two weaker-than-expected data prints on Thursday — the lowest US manufacturing activity since November 2023 and the highest weekly unemployment claims reading in roughly a year — initially sparked this week’s selling.
Friday’s employment report, which showed the second-weakest monthly job additions since 2020 and the highest unemployment rate in nearly three years, accelerated the action.
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/finance/news/stocks-hammered-after-this-weeks-labor-data-shows-investors-treating-bad-news-as-bad-news-170211135.html
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Its the ECOMEY STUPID~
https://www.the-sun.com/money/12082857/dennys-prices-inflation-breakfast-lumberjack-slam/
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/02/nx-s1-5057854/inflation-prices-restaurants-groceries-dinner
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A pandering too far –
Kamala Harris’s Radical Islamic Terrorists Deal Revoked in Friday Night Surprise
Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s running mate, tore into the Biden-Harris administration at a Wednesday rally for cutting the plea deal with three accused terrorists.
“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have weaponized the Department of Justice to go after their political opponents, but [their administration is] cutting a sweetheart deal with 9/11 terrorists,” he said.
“We need a president who kills terrorists, not negotiates with them.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/02/kamala-harris-radical-islamic-terrorists-deal-revoked-friday-night-surprise/
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They honeymoon with the hyena is over –
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/02/trump-takes-three-point-lead-kamala-harris-national-poll/
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Not a good enough liar to make the cut for VP – ROFLOL!!!
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — one of the Democratic lawmakers rumored to be in consideration for the role of Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate — gushed over San Francisco in a recent interview with the New York Times, calling it “the most beautiful city” he’s ever been in.
But he brought up San Francisco as one of the prime examples, saying the way Republicans have described the city didn’t jibe with his first trip here just last week.
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/potential-harris-vp-pick-gushes-over-san-francisco-19616608.php
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Don
What you are failing to say is the Dems picked up 3 points with Harris in the July Poll. They were up by 6 in June
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HHP_June2024_KeyResults.pdf
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 03 August 2024 at 10:24 AM
Don
What you are failing to say is the Dems picked up 3 points with Harris in the July Poll. They were up by 6 in June
Don what Weasel is failing to say is that as a partisan democrat (He was never a Green Libertarian as he claimed…so yes he was lying again. Never even a Wikipedia mention of the “philosophy”. It’s just a term that sounded good to him as a political label that he hoped no one would ever call him out on) he needs to “campaign” here by choosing cherry picked polls that support his side.
It’s embarrassing but what else does he have to live for? The “Stalwart Man About Town” can only flog Leonard Cohens songbook so many times…..
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“It’s embarrassing but what else does he have to live for?”
I think Harris is doing darned well for a person no one voted for and doesn’t answer questions from the press. President Potato showed the way in basement campaigns, but being appointed to the job is a new twist.
Now, if Paul might just express an opinion on whether Admiral Levine is a man or a woman, we might be getting somewhere.
It’s funny how much that matters. Access to locker rooms, boxing rings, female-only scholarships, jobs at the local non-profits.
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Tanking at just the right time? –
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/lousy-jobs-report-forces-fed-to-reckon-with-hard-landing-74357163
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Kamala Harris explains cloud computing.
“No longer are you keeping those private files in some file cabinet. It’s on your laptop, and it’s then therefore up here in this cloud, that exists above us. It’s no longer in a physical place.”
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Here’s why the internet is such shite for sourcing much of anything, at least Wikipedia shows a history of changes.
That Shapiro character was quoted in the Philadelphia Inquirer as saying “…Shapiro concluded, writing, “Despite my skepticism as a Jew and a past volunteer in the Israeli army,…” and the fight rages on about whether to include anything about it.
Naturally there’s a political backsplash from the thing, ranging from his taking sides to whether it’s kosher to be a member of a foreign army, even as just a candy striper for the army.
I sure hope archive.org never goes away since the memory hole is always hungry.
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No hood cred for the hyena –
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/03/morris-kamala-canada-how-harris-uses-fake-persona-cultural-appropriation-advance-career/
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Lots of time for the truth to come out –
A prominent black actor-comedian, known for her role on the HBO series Insecure, has revealed she once told Kamala Harris that she comes off as “disingenuous,” adding that Kamala didn’t take it well and pressured her to be less critical of her.
Seales’ revelation comes as Kamala Harris is facing surging public sentiment that she is phony and inauthentic, especially when it comes to the media-crafted image of her that has been aggressively pushed on the public in the past week.
Numerous reports have alleged Kamala Harris is a boss from hell who engages in emotional terrorism by screaming at her employees and hurling obscenities at them. Her tenure as vice president has been marked by sky-high turnover in her office, with a turnover rate higher than 90 percent across the past three years, a watchdog report published Monday found.
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/08/02/watch-actress-amanda-seales-unloads-on-phony-disingenuous-kamala-harris/
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Reality check –
Kamala Harris: The ‘discount-Obama’ repeating Clinton’s failed 2016 playbook
“Fed up with the preachy do-goodism and blanket-blaming [by] the elite,” I wrote, Trump is “offering a safe space to supporters shut out from increasingly rigid definitions of ‘acceptable’ cultural conversations. Tired of being told what to say and how to think, Trump’s supporters are reclaiming their voice — and publicly committing it to the ballot box.”
Eight years on, I don’t write these words to gloat, but because history looks likely to repeat itself. Two election cycles after Trump’s first upset against a heavily hyped Democrat, the former president could easily triumph again. All of the signs are in place.
Today, as in 2016, the US is mired in economic uncertainty thanks to the Biden-era inflation Kamala Harris will inevitably inherit. The nascent wokeness and identity overreach of the Obama-era now extends from Hollywood to corporations and, most dangerously, higher education. Cancel culture no longer merely shames, it’s driven some caught in its crosshairs to suicide. Transgender issues now dominate school sports and medical care, while the chasm between left and right is so vast, it almost cost Trump his life.
Many things are not merely as bad as they were in 2016; they’re worse. And Harris represents everything that’s brought us here. Say what you want about Hillary Clinton — imperious operator, sloppy e-mailer — but she was the most qualified presidential candidate of her generation. A former first lady, secretary of state and US senator, her domestic, foreign and Beltway bona fides were unassailable.
Harris, however, can claim few of Clinton’s markers, yet alone achievements. Her CV is lacking and the only “first” Harris offers is the Asian-American heritage she’s continually downplayed for political expediency. She’s like a discount Obama or fire-sale Clinton — all of the identity but none of the politics. No wonder Michelle and Barack literally phoned in their Harris endorsement.
The worst part about Harris’s brief campaign is how far it’s leaning into the exact type of woke-babble that helped Hillary lose. Even in this age of peak infinity groups, Harris’s use of race- and gender– and sexuality-based supporter networks borders on the obscene. Imagine mega-Zooms of Whites-for-Trump or pro-lifers-for Trump or Trads-for-Trump. The take-downs by big media would make their Hamas-hyping seem tame by comparison.
Then there’s the left’s near total ban on Harris critique. As with every woke crusade, any dissent must be silenced, every criticism quashed into submission. We do not dare allude to her race or gender — even though Biden himself said he chose Harris as VP because she was female and black. We cannot question her failures on the immigration front; we can no longer even claim Harris was tasked with handling the border crisis in the first place. Any derision is seen as racist or sexist, and to ask “why” or “how” is the incontestable proof of that racism and sexism.
But woke culture thrives when reasonable people deny their best instincts, and my instincts say Harris is not what’s best for America right now. Let alone the rest of the world. I, too, am a mixed-race and California-born Gen X-er — raised on the same noxious dreck of grievance and entitlement as Harris. I come from the same culture that expects little from people of color and demands even less. I’m onto Harris’ hustle because it could easily have been my own.
But being born a woman or black or Indian are neither achievements or accomplishments. She’s done nothing to earn these totems and deserves little reward for them. Like Harris, I know what it’s like to be a DEI hire and let me tell you — it never ends well.
Eight years ago, I predicted Clinton would lose because her campaign lacked authority and authenticity. There was too much girl power and not enough hard power to defeat a brute like Trump. Imposed and manufactured, Harris’ campaign offers even less legitimacy, let alone authority. I am all for crowning Kamala the candidate if that’s what the Democratic electorate wants. But via the convention in Chicago — not a palace coup.
The conditions that allowed Trump to beat Clinton have been weaponized far beyond their 2016 levels, making Harris — even with her more than $300 million war chest — an uncertain winner. Sure, her campaign still has time to course-correct. But that would require an actual course, which Harris is still yet to deliver.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kamala-harris-the-discount-obama-repeating-clinton-s-failed-2016-playbook/ar-AA1oazQF?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=4b740752e4b947f2aba4faea50ab251f&ei=57
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Ya think? –
Burgum says Russia agreed to prisoner swap because it thinks ‘Trump’s going to win’
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/burgum-says-russia-agreed-prisoner-030412945.html
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From a never trumper no less –
Meghan McCain, the daughter of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), is putting pressure on Vice President Harris — the presumptive Democratic nominee for president — to address policy issues such as immigration and inflation, instead of leaning on personal attacks
“No matter how much momentum and media love Vice President Harris is getting right now — I don’t know her excuses for our s— inflation and open borders, where literal terrorists are crossing,” she wrote Saturday in a post on social media platform X.
In a separate post, she added, “and some ephemeral answer about hope, change and JD Vance being weird is really not going to cut it.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/meghan-mccain-presses-harris-address-224159063.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink
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Its who she is –
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kamala-harris-has-long-history-of-pushing-dei-woke-initiatives-raising-questions-about-policies-she-would-pursue-as-prez/ar-AA1oaUH8?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=bd26b5694b374516aa5bf21c146b42ba&ei=38
emory?
emory?
emory?
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Not a november surprise –
The New York Times
Prisoner Deals Stoke Fears of Perverse ‘Incentive’ to Grab Americans
https://www.yahoo.com/news/prisoner-deals-stoke-fears-perverse-142135808.html
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Here’s a quote from Don Bessee’s pick for President Donald Trump. Trump has the mentality of a six year old. Check this out:
At Saturday’s rally, Trump assailed Kemp in a roughly 10-minute tirade, blaming him for his loss to Democratic President Joe Biden and for not stopping a local district attorney from prosecuting him and several associates for his efforts to overturn the results.
“He’s a bad guy. He’s a disloyal guy. And he’s a very average governor,” Trump said. “Little Brian, little Brian Kemp. Bad guy.”
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-tears-into-georgias-republican-governor-same-day-campaigns-swing-state_n_66aece86e4b0489234f24dfc
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 04 August 2024 at 07:38 AM
Trump has the mentality of a six year old.
….still better the partisan Democrats saddling the country with someone completely non compus mentis for 4 years. You fucks couldn’t even properly 25th amendment the pervy scumbag!
But I understand why you were so enchanted with the Mick grifter,
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Economics expert Ms Kamala Harris on inflation….
Reporter: What else are you going to do to fix this problem with inflation?
Harris: Right. Thank you. Well let’s start with this what else are you going to do to fix this problem with inflation. Right. Thank you. Well let’s start with this. Uh, prices have gone up and families and individuals are dealing with the realities of of the that bread costs more that gas costs more and we have to understand what that means. That’s about the cost of living going up that’s about having to stress and stretch limited resources That’s about a source of stress for families that is not only economic but is on a daily level something that is a heavy weight to carry so it is something that we take very seriously very seriously and we know from the history of this issue in the United States that when you see these prices go up it has a direct impact on the quality of life for all people in our country so it’s a big issue and we take it seriously and it is a priority.
roflmao.
Completely winging it. Doesn’t know anything. Never listened to a staff member. Fake it til you make it.
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Trump effect likely in freeing prisoners says the WSJ –
WSJ: Fear of Trump Prompted Russia to Speed Up Prisoner Swap
The Journal noted Saturday that “Moscow’s concerns about a potential Trump presidency speeded up the deal.”
The German negotiation team was led by the deputy chief of the foreign secret service BND Philipp Wolff, a former prosecutor who joined the intelligence agency in 2007.
Wolff’s team saw an opening when their Russian counterparts said they wanted to wrap up the deal before the U.S. election in November. Some officials deduced that the Russians were either concerned about an unpredictable Donald Trump coming again to the presidency
At the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last month, Trump notably said: “And to the entire world, I tell you this, we want our hostages back — and they better be back before I assume office, or you will be paying a very big price.”
Russia may have preferred to negotiate with the more pliant Biden administration, which had shown its willingness in the past to trade valuable, even dangerous, convicts for Americans held abroad.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/04/wsj-fear-of-trump-prompted-russia-to-speed-up-prisoner-swap/
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The kamala krash is no surprise –
A plurality, 45 percent, of voters believe their “personal finances” will be better off if former President Donald Trump defeats Vice President Kamala Harris in November, while only 25 percent say the same if Harris wins, a CBS News/YouGov poll found Sunday.
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/05/ougov-poll-plurality-say-they-will-be-financially-better-off-trump-defeats-harris/
Liberal Media Outlet Sets Off On Mission To List Kamala Harris’ VP ‘Accomplishments’ — Turns Out It Isn’t So Easy
Several Georgia voters told Newsmax they couldn’t recount a single Harris accomplishment over the course of her entire career, during a segment that aired on Tuesday.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/liberal-media-outlet-sets-off-on-mission-to-list-kamala-harris-vp-accomplishments-turns-out-it-isn-t-so-easy/ar-AA1ohnFC?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=861ca4e0139f4e99b610dea82c2b34e1&ei=31
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In case you are wondering about Team Blue zeitgeist.
https://x.com/theblaze/status/1820561743481069959
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Posted by: scenes | 05 August 2024 at 02:10 PM
In case you are wondering about Team Blue zeitgeist.
Poor Jamie…..wishing….wishing so very hard!
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So much for that train –
https://www.foxnews.com/media/reporter-warns-kamala-harris-hype-might-coming-back-down-earth-after-stocks-plunged
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Its who she is –
Harris says ‘everybody needs to be woke’ in unearthed clip spreading like wildfire on social media
‘We have to stay woke,’ Harris said
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-says-everybody-needs-woke-unearthed-clip-spreading-like-wildfire-social-media#&_intcmp=fnhpbt1,hp1bt
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Evil they be –
In what appears to be a brazen act of willful misdirection, MSNBC apparently posted a deceptively edited montage of clips implying that Joe Rogan is backing Kamala Harris for president. The video even uses clips of Rogan praising Tulsi Gabbard but edited to make it seem like Rogan was referring to Kamala.
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/08/05/msnbc-appears-to-post-deceptively-edited-video-implying-joe-rogan-backs-kamala-harris/
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Tru dat –
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/05/exclusive-charles-gasparino-the-kamala-crash-is-the-end-result-of-years-of-bidenomics/
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Not helping americans at all –
The Biden-Harris Economy: 1.2 Million Fewer Americans in Workforce as ‘All’ Job Growth Goes to Foreign Workers
In July, 1.2 million fewer Americans held jobs compared to a year prior. At the same time, 1.3 million more foreign-born workers are holding jobs — suggesting that most job growth in the Biden-Harris economy is going to newly arrived migrants.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/08/05/the-biden-harris-economy-1-2-million-fewer-americans-in-workforce-as-all-job-growth-goes-to-foreign-workers/
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About that –
https://www.foxnews.com/media/border-mayors-judge-harris-performance-immigration-crisis-vice-president-nonexistent
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Walz huh….? Economy must be much, much worse (Bidenomics) than TEAM EVIL is letting on and they’ve decided to throw dum dum and random midwestern white guy and preserve Shapiro for an attempt at a later date after we go through another 2008 under Trump.
Not the worst ploy…..
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Crap….!
“….and they’ve decided to throw dum dum and random midwestern white guy under the bus” and preserve Shapiro for an attempt at a later date after we go through another 2008 under Trump.
George should pay for an editor to catch things like that!
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Your line of the day……
What’s up with all these sacrificial Tim’s on TEAM EVIL?
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Power Line has documented how bad Walz is as gov.
They know as they are are in MN.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/08/its-walz.php
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Well….this should give “Normie” something to think about this November as (insert preferred pronouns here) waltzes into the voting booth.
https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1820877866332041233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1820877866332041233%7Ctwgr%5Ebe13876037c7d04d7c35a9ba10a6291690a3aac3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F665512%2F&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1820877866332041233%7Ctwgr%5Ebe13876037c7d04d7c35a9ba10a6291690a3aac3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F665512%2F
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Hiding the bad news? –
Election savant Nate Silver blasted FiveThirtyEight for suspending its presidential forecasts — offering up a “theory” that the website he founded is waiting for Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling numbers to improve.
Silver, the statistician and data journalist who rose to prominence in 2008 after accurately predicting the results of the presidential election, called out the ABC-owned website Monday for not publishing new polling since Harris replaced President Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nate-silver-says-fivethirtyeight-suspended-140821017.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink
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THANKS! –
Former Minnesota GOP governor sums up Tim Walz VP pick: ‘Bernie Sanders in hunting gear’
Pawlenty said Democrats have doubled down on a ‘democrat-socialist’ agenda with Walz
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/former-minnesota-gop-governor-sums-up-tim-walz-vp-pick-bernie-sanders-hunting-gear
VP Kamala Harris picking Gov. Tim Walz as running mate met with media scorn: ‘Such a weird choice’
Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle reacted to the pick by saying Harris ‘reliably makes bad political decisions’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/vp-kamala-harris-picking-gov-tim-walz-running-mate-media-scorn-weird-choice
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/that-s-not-good-van-jones-says-it-worries-him-how-conservatives-rejoicing-over-harris-vp-pick/ar-AA1ol9vB?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=c25c3e14e2314493a5abe2311d45e1fe&ei=17
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What’s happened to Trump? He seems to have disappeared
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Being a convicted felon must be pretty distracting when you’re running for political office
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Looks like the hyena and waltz lost another dear friend =
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/squad-rep-cori-bush-loses-highly-contentious-primary-against-pro-israel-democrat
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In case you haven’t noticed Harris leads on all polls taken since thursday
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 07 August 2024 at 09:16 AM
Is Weasel a little lonely this morning?
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What a hoot,,,David Larsen, who is ashamed to use his real name on this blog, is branding me a weasel. Why can’t you use your real name David?
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 07 August 2024 at 09:46 AM
There he goes…Weasel Emery storming the beach at Normandy….proudly screaming his real name! A regular Audie Murphy!
I shouldn’t be mad at you Weasel…..I know you’ve forgotten that we’ve hashed this out on multiple occasions!
#memoryloss #tragic
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We have new readers David. Can you explain to them why you’re ashamed to use your real name to express your opinions?
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Sorry off topic…..
Opps (to quote the late William Tozer) ….I guess it is “on topic”! Can’t wait until that comes to the rest of the US under the Harris/Walz regime! I’m sure the rest of you can’t either!
https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1821161404319035412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1821161404319035412%7Ctwgr%5Ea649a6d6d2ad45606ce1654509b72c19dd464fd7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F665549%2F
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Posted by: Weasell Emery | 07 August 2024 at 10:13 AM
We have new readers David. Can you explain to them why you’re ashamed to use your real name to express your opinions?
No we don’t Weasel…..and you’ll just forget again!
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