George Rebane
The Lip from the Hip has done it again. With his 18jul24 convention acceptance speech he took a cinched November win and threw it back into a campaign maelstrom welcomed only by Kamala Harris and the Dems (and Putin and Xi). My own immediate reaction to his convention performance was posted here, and since then literally every left and right commentator has agreed that Trump blew it.
Trump’s self-declared return to a barroom brawl mode of campaigning has put his road to the White House back in play, even with the likes of an unaccomplished opponent and grifter like Kamala as his opponent. WSJ’s Dan Henninger summarizes her chances in today’s paper (here).
With a flawed candidate like Trump already problematic when he was running against Bumblebrain, on 15 June I did a little work in extracting my own assessment of Trump’s probability of winning in November (described here). The result (0.45) was not promising. Given all that has happened since – assassination attempt, enthusiastic Republican convention, reversion to rambling stump speeches, … – I redid my probability assessment, hoping against hope for a better outcome. The resulting probability came in at slightly north of 0.48, not much of an improvement when considering the woulda/coulda/shouldas.
Given her documented far left ideology and promised public policy initiatives a Kamala Harris presidency would be cataclysmic for our republic. And Trump’s loose cannon tactics promise to make the interval to November a real nailbiter. Is there no one on his team of advisors with the courage and gravitas who can tell him to stuff a sock in it and give acting presidential a try?
rebanesruminations.com 
237 responses to “Trumps November Chances – 25jul24 update”
re Sykes idea that “conservatives” find it easy to vote for Harris:
I would first ask them why they consider themselves to be a conservative.
Kinda like “Jews for Hitler” or “gays for Hamas”.
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Like “Chickens for KFC”.
I doubt Sykes has “conservatives” on his Christmas Card list, if he has a list.
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scotto: “The big story here is the percentage of Americans so ignorant and sheep-like that they totally buy into it without a thought.”
It’s always been true, just more so now I think. Mass media has made marketing these people a helluva lot easier. Plenty of books on the matter written in the 1960s.
Here’s what I think has changed in addition to that…metastasizing government, so it actually all matters a lot more, more polish to the sales job, and (drum roll) Biden 2020 showed the way to the non-candidate candidate. You can stick any old mental defective in the basement and win a national campaign with proper/highly targeted media. Trump is somewhat old school with the big-ass tent revival shtick, while Kamala’s handlers are going to play it out on the internet and television. OTOH, the Democrats have gone all old-timey by putting forth a candidate chosen in a meeting room somewhere, like the good ol’ days.
Of course, the fact that the average voter spends a dozen hours a day looking at the cell phone has changed all this. It isn’t just the programmability of the people, but the mental illness that comes with. The people driving the Democratic donkey come from a population that extends far above the rest of the country in terms of anxiety disorders, OCD, and other hobgoblins of the mind.
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He would know –
https://www.foxnews.com/media/willie-brown-worried-harris-has-hillary-syndrome-people-dont-like-her
😉
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Gregory – “Like “Chickens for KFC”.
LOL – I had thought about that one but was ready to hit ‘post’ so I didn’t.
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The honeymoon is over –
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-commentator-blasts-kamala-harris-for-working-to-erase-all-evidence-she-was-border-czar/ar-BB1qXADQ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=34146a9629d34867b00ff9dbd6fac3b4&ei=69
😉
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TRU DAT –
He also cites a 2019 incident after testifying on Meta’s behalf at the Senate and the House. He recalls, “at the time, I still believed the mainstream idea that Democrats were all about serving the People. However, I was shocked to learn that, for the most part, Republicans cared more deeply about their constituents, while Democrats, in my experience, cared more about government power and control.”
The former PayPal president posited, “this trend of spinning and manufacturing a parallel reality to serve the Dem agenda, solidified by complicit mainstream media, hit home with the Hunter Biden laptop story, the coordinated vilification of President Trump and his followers, and President Biden’s cognitive decline — depriving voters of a voice in a proper primary. These examples displayed the hubris of the current Dem leadership.”
“You must think the American people are fools to believe the spin on these issues. I despise this elite vs. general population ideology viscerally. This version of the Democratic Party is sidelining moderates and centrists and has adopted an increasingly leftist ideology,” wrote Marcus.
David Marcus is aligned with Trump on technology innovations like crypto and AI as well as foreign policy–especially the Middle East. Marcus opined, “on Iran, this administration is continuing a misguided Obama-era plan to bring Iran closer to the West by unfreezing Trump-era sanctions, thus giving the Mollahs’ regime the ability to fund terrorism and pursue its anti-America, anti-Israel, and anti-Jewish agenda.”
“I believe we need a President who is unequivocally pro: America, the Constitution, business, Bitcoin/crypto, innovation, Israel, small government, legal immigration, free speech, meritocracy, and common sense — and anti: regulatory proliferation, illegal immigration, unjust wars, Iran’s current regime, and domestic groups that oppose American values.”
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/former-president-paypal-announces-party-switch-endorses-trump-crossing-rubicon
😉
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The hyena is standing on a foundation of sand say the lefty youngins –
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opinion-how-harris-s-gen-z-army-could-disband-faster-than-it-assembled/ar-BB1qZ64e?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=d10efcfd52a947c58aa54bbe71fbb0f2&ei=31
😉
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Trump’s NABJ interview…Trump is toast.
Trump says they asked him mean and rude questions.
What an ass!
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No foolio he only said that about the 1st q from the abc one. Gee not even a weird reference, didnt you get your talking points for lefties today?
If you actually watched it the crowd of jurnos were listening respectfully and there were positive responses to a lot he said.
When will the hyena do a news conference? NEVER! LOL
😉
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Election polls have turned blue! Check this out. Well done Trump. You are a gift to the Dems.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
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So where’s my “I stand corrected” Punch?
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“The July 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,123 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris, J.D. Vance, and how voters are thinking about the issue of abortion.”
“Daily Kos” did a poll? Really, Paul???? One poll???? One slanted poll????
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You will stand corrected if you deny supporting Trump fish. Do you or do you not support Trump for President. Yes or no.
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psul leans up from his damp BarcaLounger and opines:
“Election polls have turned blue! Check this out. Well done Trump. You are a gift to the Dems.”
Looking at Real Clear Politics, the average poll is Trump +1.2
Slightly better than the July 27, slightly worse than July 28.
For God’s sake psul, is that our fate for the next few months? Every time there’s a sliver of good news for the cat ladies you’re going to run to your keyboard and chair? I would suggest that you buy an F-150 and sign up for welding school, that estrogen needs a flush.
I do like the concept of a ‘Daily Kos’ poll though. It’s like running around panting about the newest John Birch Society poll.
This makes a lot of sense to me:
https://nypost.com/2024/07/31/opinion/rise-of-kamala-harris-solidifies-dems-full-embrace-as-the-party-of-preachy-females-scolding-shrews/
“Rise of Kamala Harris solidifies Dems’ full embrace as the party of ‘preachy females,’ scolding shrews”
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psul: “Do you or do you not support Trump for President. Yes or no.”
Huh. I thought that your good friend Real MAGA Wives of SCOTUS said:
“Somebody has been watching “A Few Good Men” too much.”
You guys need to get your stories straight.
me: “psul, Do you or do you not think Admiral Levine is a woman. Yes or no.”
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 01 August 2024 at 01:15 PM
I could explain my position to you but I won’t….you’d have to read something…..and you don’t do that!
More importantly it has been conclusively demonstrated that you are a weasel!
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Harrisnomics……hows that working out for you?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/01/intel-intc-q2-earnings-report-2024.html
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Fish
You will stand corrected if you state you do not support Trump for election. If you support Trump that means you also support JD Vance for VP.
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 01 August 2024 at 01:51 PM
You will stand corrected if you state you do not support Trump for election. If you support Trump that means you also support JD Vance for VP.
Won’t be indulging your cowardice old man.
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“Civiqs is an online opinion polling and data analytics company founded by Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas in March 2018.[1] It is a division of Kos Media, which Moulitsas also founded. The director of Civiqs is Drew Linzer.[2] It is distinguished from other online polling firms by the large number of respondents to its polls, which it has recruited from across the United States through an online panel and asks questions on a daily basis. This allows Civiqs to monitor trends in public opinion over short periods of time, as well as across different demographic and geographic categories.[3]”
It’s a fake polling company. Made to order.
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Given her tendency for ducking and weaving (evasion) I can see the Weasel liking Harris even more than he liked President Brainstem.
Kindred spirits!
https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1819109427653304655
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Do you support Trump for election fish? I will state here that I support Harris for President. Where do you stand on the Presidential election fish ?
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 01 August 2024 at 02:38 PM
Do you support Trump for election fish? I will state here that I support Harris for President. Where do you stand on the Presidential election fish ?
I’m not haggling over presidential candidates with you Weasel…..you were mistaken when you claimed that I supported Vance. You told me to show you where you were wrong and I did…..twice! You were given an opportunity to correct that mistake but instead you chose to bob and weave “Emery Style” for the past three days! This is almost as bad as during the Summer of Floyd riots where it took you nearly a week to acknowledge that the Antifa types who kicked some poor proned out bastard in the head while he was face down in the street were wrong to do so! Had you just admitted you made a mistake this would have been over three days ago and nobody would have remembered it a day later….instead there is an entire comment trail that you’ve left in your wake that confirms beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are just a remarkably world class fucking weasel!
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Punchy, do you support the cacklers avoiding questions?
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“The woke revolution is a coup against merit.”
Bret Weinstein on X.
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psul: “I will state here that I support Harris for President.”
Is Admiral Levine the same gender as Harris? Yes or no.
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Don’t know or care scenes. Why is that important?
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Who are the “cacklers” Gregory? Send their names. I don’t know who you’re talking about.
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Fish, all you have to say is you don’t support Trump for President. A vote for Trump is a vote for Vance as well which is a sign of support. Yes or no-Trump for President???
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There is a person central to this discussion who “cackles”. Guess.
[cue Final Jeopardy theme]
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“Is Admiral Levine the same gender as Harris? Yes or no.”
A beautiful formulation of a question Punch doesn’t want to answer.
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Posted by: Weasel Emery | 01 August 2024 at 03:46 PM
Fish, all you have to say is you don’t support Trump for President. A vote for Trump is a vote for Vance as well which is a sign of support. Yes or no-Trump for President???
No, no, no…. no endless repetition of questions. No “All you have to say”….! No nagging like a woman.
You’re a weasel….might as well just accept it.
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psul:”Don’t know or care scenes. Why is that important?”
So you won’t tell us what you think? So why do you expect anyone to tell you what they think?
I realize it’s a no-win situation.
If you say Admiral Levine is a woman, you are lying, because any sane person knows he’s a man.
If you say Admiral Levine is a man, all of your good friends abandon you as an apostate.
You are living a lie. What a hoot.
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Not just a skeleton in the closet but a whole graveyard –
Flashback: Harris fumed at Americans for saying ‘Merry Christmas’ before illegal migrants got protections
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/flashback-harris-fumed-americans-saying-211330151.html
😉
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Yes they did! =
Katie Couric says Democrats have ‘kind of lost’ working class votes, urges party to ‘do better’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/katie-couric-says-democrats-have-kind-lost-working-class-votes-urges-party-do-better
😉
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Situational ethics she has –
Indian-Americans are sounding off on Vice President Kamala Harris’ alleged attempts to downplay her Indian heritage in favor of her Jamaican side of the family.
Less than a week ago, as Harris entered the presidential race, the New York Times wrote that the vice president’s Indian heritage is “little advertised.” Harris, with an Indian mother and black Jamaican father, has long been touted as a historic figure breaking glass ceilings. But some Indian-Americans told the Caller they feel Harris’ Indian identity is highlighted only when it’s “convenient” for her.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/failed-the-community-indian-americans-sound-off-on-kamala-harris-submerged-indian-heritage-focus-on-black-id/ar-BB1r38p5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=fef0b52cb508402b99f2f33bec95000e&ei=15
😉
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“…don’t shoot him, it will just make him mad…”
Mongo or DJT?
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Here’s a picture of Kamala’s dad. Any further questions? I guess Trump never thought to look for this before opening his mouth. Typical Trump talk. All mouth no brains.
“So I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black? Trump continued. “But you know what, I respect either one, but she obviously doesn’t, because she was Indian all the way, and then all of a sudden she made a turn, and she went – she became a Black person.”
Here’s a photo of her dad:
https://www.marieclaire.com/politics/a28259825/who-is-donald-harris-kamala-harris-father/
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Paul 1051am – Isn’t the whole point of Kamala’s advertised blackness to put her in the aggrieved identity class of those whose ancestors were America’s slaves??? That membership is supposed to somehow make us feel as if she is owed some additional consideration beyond those today whose ancestors were not slaves in the US. All evidence indicates that this was not the case. As a liberal what are your thoughts on this?
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Punch…
Her father’s family owned slaves in Jamaica.
Not African American. Jamaican.
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” Isn’t the whole point of Kamala’s advertised blackness”
I spent a couple of minutes looking at news from 20+ years ago.
She was almost always ‘Caribbean’ and they did push the Indian angle harder. I think that ‘black’ polls well right now so there you go. Trump is obviously referring to the fact that she’ll choose ethnicity as needed to make the sale. Obama sure didn’t push the fact that his mother looked like an Irish scullery maid.
Dad divorced when she was seven, took off before that. Marxist. Looks like a good launch point for catlady-land, but it’s hard to tell.
Almost certainly her attachment to Western Civ is essentially nil, but that suits the US Left just fine.
I agree that she’s going to pick up some votes by broadcasting her racial background, it’s a helluva way to run a railroad. Maybe Paul is voting for her because she’s female, but then he can’t tell us if Admiral Levine is a female so maybe he’s unclear on the concept. Maybe some diagrams might be in order.
as an aside, I’m starting to think that coming from a single-parent household should make you ineligible to be President. Maybe a new Amendment.
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Ms Kamala speaks:
https://x.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1819420674752164156
“Not African American. Jamaican.”
Just looking at Paul’s picture, it’s hard to say what the ethnicity is there. No doubt Paul can ‘just tell’ when someone is ‘black’.
Maybe he uses some sort of one-drop rule. Jamaica seems like a complicated place.
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“Kamala nominated today by “virtual vote” without having placed a single policy position anywhere on her website. Just a personal bio, fundraising solicitations, and merch. She really is a “historic” candidate — historic in the shocking lack of scrutiny she’s been subjected to.”
– Michael Tracey on X
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Try not to enjoy this….it comes from a non-weasel approved source.
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1819386362132365373?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1819386362132365373%7Ctwgr%5Eea48c464903f6f1028855274288a348c9af0f7f2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F664557%2F
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Speaking of cat ladies, I just ran into this one. Gotta love how things really work behind the curtain.
https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-brisbane-group (Maria Brisbane)
is the domestic partner of
https://www.baldwin.senate.gov/ (Tammy Baldwin)
But, not being married, no need to do any disclosures.
I just assume that people are crooked as all get-out, the problem is that the pot of money available is so much larger than in the 18th and 19th centuries.
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OK, so just who is Josh Shapiro and why should he be VP? Paul?
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In which Kunstler proposes a counter coup….
…hilarity ensues!
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/weird
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lol. This explains a lot.
From the WSJ:
“The cable news audience is even older, with MSNBC’s median age at 70, Fox News’s at 69 and CNN’s, 67. “
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Not worth gaining jihadi votes when you lose the country –
https://www.foxnews.com/us/defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-revokes-plea-deal-9-11-terrorists
😉
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