George Rebane
The Lip from the Hip has done it again. With his 18jul24 convention acceptance speech he took a cinched November win and threw it back into a campaign maelstrom welcomed only by Kamala Harris and the Dems (and Putin and Xi). My own immediate reaction to his convention performance was posted here, and since then literally every left and right commentator has agreed that Trump blew it.
Trump’s self-declared return to a barroom brawl mode of campaigning has put his road to the White House back in play, even with the likes of an unaccomplished opponent and grifter like Kamala as his opponent. WSJ’s Dan Henninger summarizes her chances in today’s paper (here).
With a flawed candidate like Trump already problematic when he was running against Bumblebrain, on 15 June I did a little work in extracting my own assessment of Trump’s probability of winning in November (described here). The result (0.45) was not promising. Given all that has happened since – assassination attempt, enthusiastic Republican convention, reversion to rambling stump speeches, … – I redid my probability assessment, hoping against hope for a better outcome. The resulting probability came in at slightly north of 0.48, not much of an improvement when considering the woulda/coulda/shouldas.
Given her documented far left ideology and promised public policy initiatives a Kamala Harris presidency would be cataclysmic for our republic. And Trump’s loose cannon tactics promise to make the interval to November a real nailbiter. Is there no one on his team of advisors with the courage and gravitas who can tell him to stuff a sock in it and give acting presidential a try?
rebanesruminations.com 
237 responses to “Trumps November Chances – 25jul24 update”
I honestly don’t think that rambling speeches will make a bit of difference. They are as silly as Team Blue speeches consisting of carefully read cue cards written by staffers.
What’s going to drive this (I think) is simply clever manipulation of the public, mostly online, by real or imaginary gotcha clips.
It’s all about capturing a few hundred thousand votes in very particular places with a strategy built atop huge giant wads of cash.
If anything, I’d say that it’s Kamala’s to lose since (a) they have the Wall Street and media people in their pocket (b) the Karen Party is in full voice (c) there’s a bunch of people with iron rice bowls at stake. No one is going to make their daily bread from a Trump promise while Harris can throw the lucre far and wide. That, and the better ground game (ownership of elections departments, personal visits to blind granny at the nursing home) give a leg up to Democrats.
In any case, it’s waay to early to tell. I’m paying zero attention to polls or gotcha clips, aside from pure amusement, until a month or so before the main event.
Is Harris cataclysmic? I doubt it, all she’ll do is speed up the demise a bit.
Every now and again, I think about this essay:
https://lukesmith.xyz/articles/politics-matters-most-to-slaves/
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This is why Trump may luck back into the Oval Office…..
Seen elsewhere –
And…the thing that upsets Punch the most….what with the “Bonking” and the Babes in arms”!
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scenes 755pm – never claimed that “rambling speeches” would make a difference. But I firmly believe that Trump’s name-calling and all the vituperation that goes with it will definitely make a difference with those not unconditionally committed to him.
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I was probably going to vote for him (Hi Punch™) anyway…you don’t need to sell me on the idea…
It’s almost as though Hollywood progressives (even has beens like Sharon Stone) are trying to drive voter turnout!
https://metro.co.uk/2024/07/26/sharon-stone-promises-leave-us-trump-elected-president-21302342/
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Hey Punch™ …..still time to do a little shopping for your fall wardrobe…..be the most popular cool kid in your fair burgh!
Go the “The Right Thinkful Progressive Store of Tolerance” and get yours….today!
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/amazon-sold-merch-reading-only-good-trump-dead-one
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“But I firmly believe that Trump’s name-calling and all the vituperation that goes with it will definitely make a difference with those not unconditionally committed to him.”
I doubt they ever see a speech. The few people that watch these things aren’t in play.
What’ll happen is that opposition research will pour through every speech at every venue, grab cell phone pics/video/audio wherever they can, scoop out the money shot, run that over and over on social media.
Both sides will do it, it’s just that the Democrats have more money, being the party of Big Money and all.
It isn’t like Ms. Harris doesn’t already say absolutely heinous things about Trump already, it’s just that she gets more of a pass. It’s generally acceptable to call any adult white male a rapist Hitler at this point. Karen Kulture runs the country right now, dunno how long it will last.
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Hyperbolic Ruminators, you don’t do yourself any favors trying to paint Democrats as Marxists and Communists.
As far as I can tell, Harris mostly voted the Democratic party line.
You have to have been a coma to not to have noticed how Congress votes these days – party line all the way.
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Posted by: Real MAGA Wives of SCOTUS | 29 July 2024 at 07:03 AM
….yawn!
Spare us….you fuckers hate Harris far more than we do as evidenced by her 2% showing in the last democrat primary.
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Hilarious!
“…you don’t do yourself any favors trying to paint Democrats as Marxists and Communists.”
Because various Dems already do a far better job at it.
Actually I find them much closer to fascists than anything else. They check all the boxes nicely.
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Trumpers, the party of misogynist white supremacists.
Pick up your doggie bags – get off my lawn!
BurmaShave!
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“Hyperbolic Ruminators, you don’t do yourself any favors trying to paint Democrats as Marxists and Communists.”
That’s kind of old school. There was a time when the fight was about economics, but no longer. You are probably just showing your age here.
I’d say that the tendency for the government to grow is baked into the cake, at least until it collapses. In the meantime, (D) becomes the war party and the party of big business, but there are enough aged (R)s that it’s a soft boundary.
Modern Democrats, weirdly, have become the party of middle-aged women with anxiety issues and mentally-ill men in dresses. There’s no telling what their ownership of schools and media will lead to, but it can’t be good.
One small advantage I can take from this is that there’s so much more for me to make fun of than there used to be. Tax rates and abortion law (just when does a fetus deserve legal protection?) is boring, but Grand Admiral Levine never grows old as a topic.
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“You have to have been a coma to not to have noticed how Congress votes these days – party line all the way.”
As a side note, if that were strictly true, all Senators and House Members would have one of two voting scores.
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Modern Republicans are the same as they were 100 years ago – living in the past.
“Levine is a professor of pediatrics and psychiatry at the Penn State College of Medicine, and previously served as the Pennsylvania physician general from 2015 to 2017 and as secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Health from 2017 to 2021.[3] Levine is one of only a few openly transgender government officials in the United States,[4] and is the first to hold an office that requires Senate confirmation.[5][6] On October 19, 2021, Levine became the first openly transgender four-star officer in the nation’s eight uniformed services.”
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Posted by: Real MAGA Wives of SCOTUS | 29 July 2024 at 09:46 AM
Ducking the question again dugsKKKi…..weak sauce!
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“Modern Republicans are the same as they were 100 years ago – living in the past.”
If by ‘past’ you mean the Clinton administration, maybe so. I’d say that ‘past’ is inhabited by people who think we are all fighting about the political arguments from 25 years ago.
In a nutshell.
1) Levine is mentally-ill
2) Levine shows his kinky cross-dressing fetish in public.
3) Levine is in a position of authority, including over children’s health.
The first is unavoidable perhaps, the second is questionable, the third is unacceptable.
So, is Levine a woman? Yes or no?
Should be a simple enough question for either you or psul. We’ll see where it leads assuming you are man (or transgender man) enough to actually justify a position.
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Why just “honorary”? I don’t know why she doesn’t just go for it…..it’s not like she hasn’t engaged in this on a casual basis for personal benefit…..
You shouldn’t be afraid to chase your dreams in Joe Biden’s America.
https://thepostmillennial.com/kamala-told-harvey-milk-democratic-club-she-wanted-to-be-honorary-sex-worker-report
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“Ducking the question again dugsKKKi…..weak sauce!”
It’s difficult for these people not to duck, it’s a weak position that they feel strongly about.
You’ve got basically two versions of civilization at war. One is 3000+ years old with plenty of minor variants, the other springs from thing to thing, none of which work but they keep trying.
It’s worth considering what causal chain led from the French Revolution, to Marxism, to the current movement of Karens and pervs. It would be nice to have a simple answer, but given the mass nature of the thing I don’t think that political essayists ever got it right.
In the long run, the Earth doesn’t care, and if Western Civilization falls, that’s that. Cultures evolve in a competitive environment and it’s pretty obvious how low functioning the modern West is becoming. It’s hard to build an economy out of childlessness, white wine, and surveillance advertising.
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“So, is Levine a woman? Yes or no?”
Somebody has been watching “A Few Good Men” too much.
They are on the spectrum.
“Get off my lawn!”
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Posted by: Real MAGA Wives of SCOTUS | 29 July 2024 at 10:36 AM
“So, is Levine a woman? Yes or no?”
Somebody has been watching “A Few Good Men” too much.
They are on the spectrum.
“Get off my lawn!”
Ackshually we have been forced for a couple of years now by the other stalwart progressive about town….you know the one…..the Matlock impersonator….to answer questions strictly in a “YES or NO” ALL CAPS fashion!
On what spectrum? Biologically you really….unless genetically damaged in some way (Which I suspect many of these people are)….are either one or the other in order to propagate the species. No amount of wishing is going to Make the Grand Admiral female. He is by definition a female impersonator.
Well now you’re just channeling hard white shoes George Boardman….which is sad!
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re: RMWOS@10:36AM
roflmao. That’s about the kind of non-answer answer I expect.
I get it. Team Blue is full of crazy people, but team spirit tells you not to rock the cart.
So, is Levine a woman? Should Levine be legally considered a woman? Go to female jail if necessary. Use the women’s restroom. Strip in the women’s locker room down at the ol’ gym? Stand there proudly and wave her weinie at the other chicks?
Why is it so hard to answer? Methinks it’s because your belief system is garbage.
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StratoLounger –
I guess all’s y’alls are too clueless to understand that “‘they’ are on the ‘spectrum’” is the correct response.
I am sorry MAGA dumbfucks are so ossified they cannot accept any changes to their primitive belief systems.
Y’all sound really pissed about Kamala!
“Get off my lawn!”
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I guess all’s y’alls are too clueless to understand that “‘they’ are on the ‘spectrum’” is the correct response.
White people using “Y’all” is the dumbest thing ever! Of course so is wearing the Greek Fisherman’s cap….but here we are!
I am sorry MAGA dumbfucks are so ossified they cannot accept any changes to their primitive belief systems.
Gee its just tho thuper that you’re such an enlightened soul!
Y’all sound really pissed about Kamala!
Nahh…”Heels Up” is emblematic of modern progressivism! Really after President Brainstem where else were you going to go?
“Get off my lawn!”
Sorry George…..
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“I guess all’s y’alls are too clueless to understand that “‘they’ are on the ‘spectrum’” is the correct response.”
Bummer that there isn’t a spectrum of bathrooms, jails, athletic events, affirmative action, medical care.
In Crazy Town, we could have a whole N-dimensional array of the-way-people-are, ideally suited to each individual. Just think, Democrats could organize the Sam Brinton Tournament of Buggery, complete with young men in leather dog masks and little else. It’s ‘modern times’ after all, and the flags are already printed up.
It all get especially serious when the mentally-ill who managed to wedge a foot into the door of power went after the children.
Not acceptable.
What on earth is wrong with you people? Feelz-based is not much of a way to run a life old son.
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I know, y’alls are pissed that you invested in the MAGA tailgate wrap of Biden gagged and bagged in the back of your pick-m-up trucks and now you have to pay for the Kamala truck wrap
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I know, y’alls are pissed that you invested in the MAGA tailgate wrap of Biden gagged and bagged in the back of your pick-m-up trucks and now you have to pay for the Kamala truck wrap
I worry about you dug….and that’s from my ticker….you and Punch, two frightened elderly men losing the plot!
It’s OK….go get the greek Fisherman’s cap…..yes that one…..put it on! Now go down to your local watering hole and regale the assembled about how you gave those Trumpists what fer today…the ol 23 Skidoo if you will! Let em know that you really settled our hash online today….just like the good old days back in the Bowery!
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It’s Jacobins all the way down.
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Posted by: Real MAGA Wives of SCOTUS | 29 July 2024 at 12:40 PM
I know, y’alls are pissed that you invested in the MAGA tailgate wrap of Biden gagged and bagged in the back of your pick-m-up trucks and now you have to pay for the Kamala truck wrap
Does it trouble you at all using “y’all” while looking so much like Colonel Sanders!
Asking for a friend!
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“I know, y’alls are pissed…”
Actually – we’re not – we’re laughing at the absurdity of what is going on in this country. It’s now all out in front of everyone and we see what a bunch of dumb shits we live with. You lefties and Dems totally fell for the lie that Biden was “sharp as a tack” when those of us with intelligence could plainly see he was senile.
Now we see you morons totally buying into Heels-Up-Harris as the smartest person in the room.
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Here’s your next POTUS:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/07/still-incoherent-after-all-these-years.php
She was asked – “Will you work with the GOP on the border issue?”
Any one with a brain or a good sense of politics would have simply said: “Of course we will – we look forward to reaching across the aisle to resolve all the issues our country is facing”. How hard is that?
Oh, no – she has to go into a rambling line of blather. She is a classic case of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
H L Mencken – call your office – I think this country is almost there.
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UH HUH –
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/07/29/fake-news-implodes-polling-shows-jd-vance-more-popular-than-kamala-harris/
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/07/29/nyt-trove-of-kamala-harris-videos-touting-progressive-policy-imperils-campaign/
😉
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Of course Scott you believe Trump is a real mental giant right?
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Posted by: psul Emery | 29 July 2024 at 08:39 PM
So…..when can I expect to hear you to say “I stand corrected” about Vance Punch?
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Ha ha! from Paul:
“wut about…”
The subject was Harris and what a dimwit she is.
Trump built an empire and was a good president.
Harris has done nothing but tell lies about how sharp and fit Biden is.
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They actually let creepy grampa joe talk in public! ROFLOL sounds like something he would say to cornpop –
Biden’s ‘dead on arrival’ jab at Speaker Johnson bewilders social media users: ‘What does that even mean?’
When pressed for clarification, Biden added, “He is. Dead on arrival.”
Biden reiterated this comment during his prepared remarks on his op-ed at the LBJ Presidential Library, in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act.
“The Republican Speaker of the House says whatever he proposes is dead on arrival,” Biden said. “Well, I was thinking his thinking is dead on arrival!”
“’Put Trump in a bullseye’ has pivoted to the faux POTUS saying House Speaker Johnson is ‘dead on arrival.’ But JD Vance is weird. Or something,”
“Imagine if Donald Trump said Kamala Harris was ‘dead on arrival’ and then said the same thing when pressed for clarification. Jake Tapper would be hyperventilating right now.”
The Federalist senior legal correspondent Margot Cleveland commented, “Our Commander-in-Chief just threatened to take out the Speaker of the House.”
“Yeah, this guy definitely thought up and wrote the op-Ed in today’s Washington Post,” National Review writer Jeff Blehar joked.
Johnson himself responded to the video on X, posting a video of former President Trump during his debate with Biden.
“I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either,” Trump said.
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/bidens-dead-arrival-jab-speaker-013012119.html
😉
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Hey Punch….where’s my “I stand corrected”?
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“They milked Jan 6 for three years. They’ll try to move on from the attempted assassination of a presidential candidate by next Monday.”
– Joel Berry on X
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Punch… Harris isn’t known as a mental giant, was a diversity admit to Hastings.
She is a minority by DNA but her dad was a Stanford professor and her mom had degrees in biology… Harris had a more privileged start to life than I did. And she didn’t have a drop of African American blood… her dad was Jamaican, from a slave owning family IIRC.
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The poor kitty!
Won’t someone help that poor thing?
https://twitter.com/rose_k01/status/1817672173110301015/photo/1
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Gregory: “It’s Jacobins all the way down.”
Real MAGA: “Modern Republicans are the same as they were 100 years ago – living in the past.”
James Howard Kunstler: “Thus began the Thermidorian Reaction — called that, because the Jacobins had added an extra mid-summer month, Thermidor, to their cuckoo calendar. Now, one might ask, was July 27, 2024, the start of the revolt against progressive Woke-ism? It’s hard to imagine what kind of public spectacle the Left could come up with to beat the Olympic opener.”
I was thinking about that this morning.
At what point do regular people get sick of being pushed and pushed and pushed? I guess there’s a limit to the American ability to put up with things, but we haven’t hit it yet.
The problem is that the counter-reaction will be more heinous the longer you wait.
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“She is a minority by DNA but her dad was a Stanford professor ”
From the New Yorker: “Kamala’s parents—her father, Donald Harris, is a renowned Marxist economist from Jamaica who taught at Stanford University for decades”
Harris’ factotum (and potential VP) Buttigieg’s father:
From Wikipedia: “Joseph Anthony Buttigieg II…was a Maltese-American Marxist literary scholar and translator”
I guess this time it’ll be ‘real’ Marxism.
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Joe Buttigieg was a scholar of renoun, a translator not of “real” Marxism but of Marx version 4, Antonio Gramsci, founder of the Italian Communist Party; Joe was the founder of the International Gramsci Society. It was the Gramsci flavor that Max Horkheimer and Marcuse served students like Angela Davis, the New Left of the ’60’s. Gramsci/Horkheimer were key figures in the creation of Woke or Cultural Marxism.
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The Conservative RCP website that tracks all the top polls now has Harris ahead in 6 of the eight battleground states. Last week Trump was ahead in seven of the eight. Trump the loser shines again with his choice of Vance as his running mate. He is such a gift to the Dems. His legacy of being the biggest political loser since the 1800’s will be topped off when he loses to Harris meaning he will be the first Presidential candidate in history to lose two presidential races as well as the House and Senate.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
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1) There ain’t no such thing as a “Conservative RCP” website
2) The centrist RCP website is largely unchanged.
Nice try, Punch. No points.
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Posted by: psul Emery | 30 July 2024 at 06:18 PM
Oh good you’re here! So when can I expect my “I stand corrected” from you Punch?
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Very interesting when you look at the patterns –
The one-time reality television host and real estate mogul has been the putative leader of the Republican Party for nearly a decade. Despite myriad vulnerabilities and weaknesses for Harris to exploit in the final 100 days of this campaign, Trump is arguably the strongest he’s ever been as a presidential candidate. A review of the public opinion polls from his first two presidential campaigns, and the 2024 surveys, tells the tale.
By the numbers, Trump is in better electoral shape today than he was at this point in 2016 versus Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Ditto in 2020 versus Biden.
On Monday morning, Trump was leading Harris in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls by a margin of 1.7 percentage points—47.9 percent to 46.2 percent. Four years ago today, Biden led Trump in the RealClearPolitics average by 8.4 points and was cracking the important 50 percent threshold, enjoying a 50.1 percent to 41.7 percent advantage over the then-incumbent president. Eight years ago, Trump and Clinton were tied at 44.3 percent, each.
It’s not just the extent of Trump’s lead today, compared to trailing or being tied in the previous campaigns. Look at Trump’s vote share, a critical metric. Presently, he is approaching 48 percent of the vote, putting him closer to 50 percent on a consistent basis than he’s ever been. Four years ago, Trump was just above 40 percent at this stage of the race—and in that first campaign against Clinton he was in the mid 40s. The mid 40s has, until now, been his ceiling; Trump won in 2016 with 46.1 percent of the vote and lost in 2020 with 46.8 percent of the vote.
In nine of the 15 polls that make up the polling average referenced above, Trump is at 48 percent or higher; in seven of those surveys, he is garnering 49 percent of the vote, or higher.
The candidates’ personal favorability ratings—also an important factor in presidential campaigns—also shows signs of improvement for Trump when compared to his previous campaigns. We had trouble finding a complete set of perfectly competing numbers based on this day in history. But in 2016, Trump outpaced Clinton on Election Day despite a disapproval number of 61 percent, as measured by Gallup, compared to just 52 percent for his opponent.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/comparing-donald-trump-polling-now-174943782.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall
😉
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Joe Rogan on Harris. This is something I buy.
https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1818354746526499090
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“Nice try, Punch. No points.”
Oh well. He thinks that Admiral Levine is a woman. All else follows.
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Posted by: scenes | 31 July 2024 at 07:00 AM
Oh well. He thinks that Admiral Levine is a woman. All else follows.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
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scenes 6:58 – “He’s (Rogan) baffled by how Kamala Harris went from being “the least popular vice president of all time” to a celebrated “hero.”
I may get stuff wrong about politics in this country but I saw that one a mile out.
Because she had the pile of money now in her name. So, she gets the full PR treatment and voila – from dumbshit to smartest person in the room in no time.
The big story here is the percentage of Americans so ignorant and sheep-like that they totally buy into it without a thought. That’s the scary part. Those are the same exact people that put Hitler and other despots into power. They’ve learned to buy breakfast cereal and cars with the same blank stare stupidity, why not candidates for office.
Hey – it’s not like the Dems need an actual intelligent person to be a figure-head reading off a teleprompter to have a viable candidate.
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This is why it’s completely pointless to be “conservative’ politically.
Remember this when they beg you for money!
Hey Punch….where’s my “I stand corrected”?
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/once-unthinkable-for-many-never-trumpers-supporting-kamala-harris-turned-out-to-be-remarkably-easy-argues-charlie-sykes/
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