Rebane's Ruminations
November 2020
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George Rebane

Under the ‘Estonian Fox’ moniker, one of our east coast readers has been a regular on these comment streams.  He emailed me his filled out electoral college predictions in the spreadsheet format that I developed and made available here.  The first figure below shows his vote assignment per state at the various probability levels.  His bottom line is that Trump’s expected electoral votes are 278 (270 required to win), and Biden’s expected is 260.  This squeaker projects a 0.52 probability that Trump wins.  In the second figure EFox assigned ones and zeros to the candidates who had the higher probability of taking each state from his first assessment.  This kind of ‘all or nothing’ figuring give Trump 325 votes and Biden 213 – a clear Republican glory road.  Well, from his mouth to God’s ear is all we can hope for.


EFox201031-1

EFox202031-2

Posted in ,

120 responses to “A reader’s hopeful election assessment”

  1. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Now, does anyone think if there were 127k GOP votes made in an illegal (under Tejas law) polling place they’d not do the same thing?

    Like

  2. robert cross Avatar
    robert cross

    This from Ben Ginsburg, who is described as the “the single most prominent Republican election lawyer in the country”, on the subject of the nationwide republican effort to suppress the vote by claiming voter fraud (proven numerous times to be non-existent):
    “Trump has enlisted a compliant Republican Party in this shameful effort. The Trump campaign and Republican entities engaged in more than 40 voting and ballot court cases around the country this year. In exactly none — zero — are they trying to make it easier for citizens to vote. In many, they are seeking to erect barriers. All of the suits include the mythical fraud claim. Many are efforts to disqualify absentee ballots, which have surged in the pandemic. The grounds range from supposedly inadequate signature matches to burdensome witness requirements. Others concern excluding absentee ballots postmarked on Election Day but received later, as permitted under state deadlines. Voter-convenience devices such as drop boxes and curbside voting have been attacked….
    …This attempted disenfranchisement of voters cannot be justified by the unproven Republican dogma about widespread fraud. Challenging voters at the polls or disputing the legitimacy of mail-in ballots isn’t about fraud.”

    Like

  3. Scott O Avatar

    Duh 4:03 – “Because the law says voting has to take place “indoors” you would deny Americans the right to vote.”
    Yeah – that’s it, Duh. Now go back and read what you wrote.
    Good Lord, you make morons look bright.
    The law says to vote indoors.
    You go in a building and vote.
    My wife and I just did that.
    I can’t think of any time in my life I haven’t.
    No one is denying any eligible citizen the right to vote.
    There is no ‘voter suppression’. Only lefty morons that can’t follow simple well-established rules.

    Like

  4. Scott O Avatar

    Booby X 4:45 – OMG!!! Now they’re trying to go to court!!!
    How dare they seek justice under a system of laws in a court of law.
    How dare they!!
    Hey Booby – if you and Duh need help voting, all you had to do was ask. Any 10 year old could have helped you out.
    The only people that claim they can’t figure out how to vote are also the ones claiming they are so much more intelligent and educated.
    What’s next?
    You guys need lessons on wiping your own ass or blowing your nose?

    Like

  5. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Wine Aunt | 02 November 2020 at 04:45 PM
    (proven numerous times to be non-existent):

    Nice try Goebbels…..“non-existent….it’s non existent…..clearly proven to be non existent”…..keep chanting, nobody is listening.

    Like

  6. Robert Cross Avatar
    Robert Cross

    in the category of ‘republicans really are dumber than rocks’ an new ad for GOP Senator Cory Gardner talks all about “Colorado’s greatest natural resources: our people, our land.” while showing a flyover of The Grand Canyon…Duh! In case some of you don’t get it..the Grand Canyon is in Arizona.
    my oh my… the ruminators are a little more testy than usual..

    Like

  7. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    “You guys need lessons on wiping your own ass or blowing your nose?”
    They combine both activities when they are dealing with CNNAmazonGoogleFBIFacebookNYTTwitter.

    Like

  8. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    There’s voting and there’s voting.
    “Joe Biden, Kamala Harris Got a Big Social Media Boost from Indian Troll Farms”…plus several I can think of here.
    https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-kamala-harris-got-big-social-media-boost-indian-troll-farms-1544047

    Like

  9. Scott O Avatar

    Booby X 5:13 “republicans really are dumber than rocks”
    Really, Booby?
    They’re not the ones complaining they can’t figure out how to vote.
    You guys are.
    As I said – if you need help, don’t be afraid to ask.
    There’s a Republican HQ nearby staffed with folks that can show you how to vote legally and safely.
    Or you can sit in the dirt and throw rocks – your choice.

    Like

  10. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    One more time –
    Professor who predicted Trump’s 2016 win explains why he thinks Trump will win again
    😉

    Like

  11. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Robert Cross | 02 November 2020 at 05:13 PM
    in the category of ‘republicans really are dumber than rocks’ an new ad for GOP Senator Cory Gardner talks all about “Colorado’s greatest natural resources: our people, our land.” while showing a flyover of The Grand Canyon…Duh! In case some of you don’t get it..the Grand Canyon is in Arizona.
    my oh my… the ruminators are a little more testy than usual..

    Not at all bertie……get back to us when Guam tips over or when GaffeMasterFlash lets loose with another, “We need more gun laws because we don’t have the manpower to enforce the ones we have” doozy!
    Good choice running Joey Fingers….!

    Like

  12. Walt Avatar

    @ Babs And Douchey. Voter intimidation is just fine for the Left. The Proggys refuse to take down the “Black LIES Matter” flags outside the voting sites.
    The place would be burned to the ground if there were those gadsden flags hanging from same.
    But Proggys are special…. Right? ( the short school bus will be there to pick you up)

    Like

  13. Walt Avatar

    Oh… Too damned little,, WAY too damned late!
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/judge-rules-california-governor-newsom-overstepped-his-authority-with-election-executive-order
    “A California judge on Monday issued a tentative ruling in favor of two Republican state lawmakers who had filed an abuse of power lawsuit against Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
    Executive Order N-67-20, which Newsom signed in June, required that counties mail all eligible voters vote-by-mail ballots before Election Day and regulated the number of polling stations.
    Assemblymembers James Gallagher, R-Yuba City, and Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, challenged Newsom’s order in court, arguing that Newsom’s Emergency Services Act – implemented in March amid the burgeoning coronavirus pandemic – prevented the governor from issuing more executive orders or creating new laws.
    Sutter County Judge Sarah Heckman has sided with their lawsuit in declaring Newsom’s executive order unconstitutional. As part of the ruling, Heckman has issued a permanent injunction that prevents the Democratic governor from making additional unconstitutional orders.”

    Like

  14. Walt Avatar

    So how bout you future sore losers (again) Douchey and Babs?
    Just not going to accept the results when you find out you got beat like a redheaded stepchild,,,, with freckles?
    You Proggys are already writing the lawsuits. Imagine that….
    No wonder you wanted “cheat by mail”.

    Like

  15. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    And they wonder why they lose –
    Hollywood Celebrities Make Their Closing Pitch to America: Trump ‘Actually IS the Anti-Christ,’ Supporters ‘Covered in Shame’
    https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/11/02/hollywood-celebrities-make-their-closing-pitch-to-america-trump-actually-is-the-anti-christ-supporters-covered-in-shame/
    😉

    Like

  16. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Walt @ 6:00 pm
    Evening Brother Walt. Speaking of C-19 and the election and unconstitutional mandates by Blue Mob State governors, something’s just have a way of coming back to haunt ya. A job too well done?
    —-
    ‘Horowitz: Did Democrats suppress their own voters with COVID fearmongering?
    Current numbers show some trends‘
    https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-democrats-suppress-vote-fearmongering
    Hate to beat a dead horse (ok, maybe that is a lie), but I and others have been saying since the toilet paper hoarding weekend that we all wash our hands, social distance, endure isolation, keep disinfecting the counters and say at home……only to come out of our abodes all at once to gather at Safeway, Walmart’s, Lowe’s, or Raley’s.
    Apparently one cannot catch C-19 in any of the above mentioned indoor places. So, logically, all voting should be moved to K-Mart or a supermarket locally to keep us all safe. Problem solved.

    Like

  17. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    There must have been a lot of pearl clutching and mass cases of the vapors –
    More than 1,000 Trump supporters parade through Marin in trucks and cars
    https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Trump-trucks-Marin-City-flags-rally-protesters-15693842.php
    😉

    Like

  18. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Epic fail and they showed her off in western PA. LOL –
    Lady Gaga may have helped Trump win with this pro-Biden videol –
    https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/lady-gaga-pro-biden-mock-rural-americans
    😉

    Like

  19. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Oh ya, pander to the universally reviled loco lala landers when you need real peoples votes. Didnt work for shrillary either –
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/02/kamala-harris-does-zoom-calls-with-hollywood-celebrities-in-campaigns-final-weeks/
    😉

    Like

  20. Walt Avatar

    Evening Bro Bill. Got busy today cleaning up the reloading bench. I can’t do much else yet. This slow healing sucks.
    But it kept me out of the chair.(my worst enemy at the moment)
    Dusted off the reloading machine and started recalibrating.
    Now how did things get that far out of kilter from the last time?????
    Since the ballot is already in, tomorrow seems like a real good day to build up the 2ND Amend. supply.
    Remember Libbys, Penn Valley is not a gun free zone.

    Like

  21. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Another failed narrative that will not get further coverage from the new red guards –
    A white SUV, not a black, pro-Trump vehicle, appeared to be at fault in a now-viral highway incident with a Biden bus that occurred in Texas on Friday, the San Marcos Police Department reportedly said.
    “The at-fault vehicle may be the white SUV and the victim appears to be the black truck,” the department said, according to Austin’s KXAN-TV.
    😉

    Like

  22. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    The kiss of death, it was the last time? HAHA! –
    RiotWomenn☇
    @riotwomennn
    In 2016 the midnight before we elected Hillary Clinton as our 1st woman Pres, Gaga danced on a piano! Making history
    https://twitter.com/riotwomennn/status/795936400663281664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E795936400663281664%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tmz.com%2F
    😉

    Like

  23. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Not a politician –
    Sen. Kennedy calls Trump ‘an insult to the political elite’ who never ‘talks down’ to the working class
    Thousands turned out for Trump rally in Butler, Pa. Saturday night

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sen-john-kennedy-trump-an-insult-to-the-political-elite

    Hannity: Democrats in a ‘full-fledged panic’ after Trump barnstorms swing states to massive crowds
    ‘Every Democratic operative in the country is like, “What did we just do?”‘
    “Every Democratic operative in the country is like, ‘What did we just do?’ And, by the way, it has now dawned on all of them that President Trump can absolutely win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan again.”
    Furthermore, Hannity claimed, “insiders within the Democratic Party have pointed to what is a significant, dramatic polling decline that started after the second debate and has gone on all weekend long. Minorities and young people … in record-breaking numbers seem to be breaking for Donald Trump. Older people that were cautious on COVID are now returning to the Trump camp as well.”
    https://www.foxnews.com/media/hannity-2020-election-democrats-full-fledged-panic-biden-trump
    😉

    Like

  24. Scott O Avatar

    Don 7:53 – Not a surprise. Anyone looking at the video could see it showed the white vehicle pushing from the middle lane over to the right lane that was already occupied by the pickup. Most of this was not caught by the camera.
    Once again, the ‘noose’ turned out to be a rope loop to pull the door down.
    Maybe the FBI could possibly just try to investigate the Bidens as vigorously as they investigate left wing hoaxes.

    Like

  25. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Hi there ScottO –
    If 45 closes the deal i would expect to see a lot of heads fall in the swamp.
    😉

    Like

  26. L Avatar
    L

    Looks like Trump in a ‘slide. Not Reagan in ’84 or Nixon in ’72, but solid enough to get to 320, North of which the House gets in play. I’ll take it.

    Like

  27. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    “If elected, I will not vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.” How many times did we hear that bold campaign promise by numerous Dems running for office in 2018? Ha!
    But they promised! Liars! Liars! :).

    Like

  28. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Talk about stumbling bumbling out the exit door to the ash bin of history! LOL –
    Former Vice President Joe Biden nearly stumbled at the end of his final rally of the 2020 campaign in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Monday evening, as his wife, Dr. Jill Biden, startled him by trying to steer him toward the podium.
    Biden finished his speech and wandered over to stage left, waving to the few supporters who were there at the drive-in event. His wife approached him from behind and put a hand on his back. That startled him and he appeared to lose his balance momentarily.
    Once back safely in the center of the stage, behind the podium, Biden greeted his grandchildren and waved to the crowd with his wife. He then tried to put his mask — his signature accessory — back on, but struggled to do so, leaving it dangling.
    Biden then leaned into the microphone at the podium and tried to speak again, but the music played him offstage.
    https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/11/02/joe-biden-awkward-final-campaign-rally-pennsylvania/
    😉

    Like

  29. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Talk about putting you money where your mouth is! –
    The Sun newspaper reported Monday the ex-banker bet $5 million through private bookies located in Curacao and it is believed to be the largest political bet ever made. The report said the individual did his research and consulted with “Trump camp insiders.”
    The bet can result in a $15 million payout, the report said
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/businessman-wagers-5m-on-trump-winning-election-report
    😉

    Like

  30. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    While that may sound good comrade deblasio and his apparatchiks will let them back on the streets right away. –
    https://www.foxnews.com/us/nypd-issues-pre-election-warning-to-known-rioters-agitators-we-know-who-they-are
    😉

    Like

  31. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Oh really? What was your first clue, Sherlock? It took you this long to see the nose on your Own face? Tell us something we all have known for many moons.
    Politico Reporter: ‘Most of Us Are Suffering Collective PTSD from 2016’
    https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/mark-finkelstein/2020/11/02/politico-reporter-most-us-are-suffering-collective-ptsd-2016

    Like

  32. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    ‘U.S.—Business owners in Democrat-controlled cities are boarding up in preparation for an onslaught of mostly peaceful demonstrations should Trump win the election Tuesday.
    The real concern is that the party of love and tolerance loses the election.
    “We just want to make sure our businesses will be safe from the sudden outpouring of peace, love, and tolerance,” said one frightened business owner in Los Angeles as he frantically boarded up his hookah lounge. “You know, too much peace can sometimes intensify and end up destroying millions of dollars of property. You know, from all the peace.”
    “Can’t be too careful when there’s roaming bands of people spreading peace.”‘
    https://babylonbee.com/news/business-owners-boarding-up-in-preparation-for-onslaught-of-peaceful-protests

    Like

  33. Barry Pruett Avatar
    Barry Pruett

    Long lines in Nevada today

    Like

  34. Walt Avatar

    More campaign lies.
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/02/kamala-harris-blames-trump-for-coronavirus-deaths-compares-number-to-lives-lost-in-wwii/
    “O”andCO. killed more VETS just waiting in line for health care at the VA.

    Like

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