[Halloween will be extended by several weeks this year as the scary election returns and adjudicated ruling start coming in. In the meantime, I invite those prognosticators of the presidential race to use the spreadsheet with assignable probabilities to express their views. Using that model, instead of the limited information point estimate maps provided online, allows us to also calculate the chances that either candidate can win, and let’s us see how the probabilities shift as the state’s shift their electors. The innumerates keep fooling themselves that our universe is constructed with predestined point quantities, instead of an unending sea of probability distributions that define all apprehended knowledge, and from which reality is sampled with the passage of time. Gjr

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142 responses to “Sandbox – 31oct20”
“who can explain the difference between trump supporters surrounding and harassing a Biden campaign bus in Texas and brown shirts harassing Jewish owned businesses and business owners in pre war Germany?”
A more fitting question is, “Who wants to take the time to explain to Roberta Cross the difference? We are not talking parallel universes here. Like, whats the difference between your nose and your big toe?
Life is too precious and short to waste the time explaining it to Ms. Cross. But, the great news is that all Biden campaign stops in Texas have been cancelled by his campaign team. Problem went away. It’s like it never happened.
I must say I do like the idea of Trump car rallies. Seems kinda fun. Even seen some folks stick an American flag in the back of the pickup or family car and head out on a Sunday drive. It doesn’t even have to be organized. Just get word of a car rally drive somewhere and join the rolling thunder. And social distancing is adhered to. Kind of a fad that’s catching on. Honk and wave…what could be more neighborly that that?
People are out there expressing themselves. Great to see. No hiding in the basement. You can always tell the bad guys. They are the ones flying American flags tootling down the road, have big grins and happy smiles on their faces, and for some unexplained reason, they obviously attract the best looking and articulate women of all ages. Never get tired of winning.
Didn’t take much to scare Biden away. No more questions, the lid to the cone of silence has been lowered. That bus has a big basement.
Now Trump is a different story. Right after Trump won the nomination and Hillary’s Convention was going on, I watched Trump give a speech (which drove the Libs nuts because of the unwritten protocol that you don’t campaign during the other party’s nomination). Anyway, Trump appearing breathing hard and out of breath, hair and tie a little messed up as he gave his first words. I definitely knew he was out of breath. What I did not know was the Jacobins had surrounded the front and sides of the building with a full blockage going on. Trump’s driver circled around back, Trump and his secret agent jumped out, climbed over some barbed wire farm fencing, raced across the field, and ran into the back, door opens, and Trump kept running straight to the podium. No wonder he was trying to catch his breath.
Now, could you ever ever ever imagine Trump being deterred by some cars on a freeway? Ha! Hardly. Hurry up fellas, Joey Fingers is late for his nappy-pooh.
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Ms Cross: “Even though Biden has twice as much money to spend in battleground states the ‘smart with their money’ trump’s aren’t going to pony up a dime. ”
You have to go back to Bush v. Kerry to see roughly equivalent spending.
Since then, Team Blue spends about 2x as much as Republicans. (per opensecrets).
Funny thing that Big Money follows Democrats, perhaps there’s a clue in all of that.
All politicians are corrupt, but some are more corrupt than others. We are living in Animal Farm I’m afraid.
Perhaps your NSAGoogleFBIFacebook Lords and Masters can come up with a better talking point next time.
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Ahhh.. No response from lil’ bob Gotta change the subject.
Any damage to that Proggy bus lil’ babs? Other that being butthurt? Joining the ANTIFA fun and games? Will private business fair the same as your bus bitch?
Your turning out to be just as cowardly as the feral LIBs who dress all in black. Gotta run in packs, but on your own, you stand in a yellow puddle of your own making.
Runa away lil’ babs,, that’s the Proggy way.
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This is for M.I.A. Emery.(he on a ventilator? His polls not going his way?) He’s a Queen and country kind of guy,
https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/31/boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown/
Better follow the Queen’s law.
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Now look what I found lil’ babs,,, I love it when proof just “shows up”.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/01/watch-antifa-protester-taunts-police-then-flees-in-fear-as-cops-approach-him/
Lone LIBSHIT runs when the heat barely starts to rise…..
Just like you.
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OK Lefties,, This who you want voting your way? Or are you voting theirs?
https://dailycaller.com/2020/11/01/sean-parnell-halloween-night-vandalism-home/
“ELECTIONS NO REVOLUTION YES!” was spray-painted in red capital letters across the garage door, and the traditional socialist hammer-and-sickle emblem was painted on the driveway.
Have the brass ones to admit it?
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Fake news to the end –
CNN’s Tapper called out for failing to fact-check Biden campaign’s fracking claim
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-jake-tapper-biden-flip-flop-fracking-debate
😉
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“The Associated Press Stylebook was amended this week to discourage the use of the word “riot” to describe violent protests, instead expanding the definition of “protest” to include violent demonstrations.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/associated-press-stylebook-discourages-use-of-riot-expands-definition-of-protest-to-include-violence/
“‘Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it.’” G.O.
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A serial fire starter who never learned his lesson from previous convictions should be locked up as a threat to society. –
https://www.foxnews.com/us/denver-das-husband-hit-with-arson-charges-after-being-accused-of-violating-fire-ban-near-wildfire
😉
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A “new” sporting rifle to be had.. But NOT in Kalif.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JUiVhM0V7Y
.950,,,Really? Yes,it needs wheels and a hitch.
OK Scott,, this one is one you can get, and bag the Moose, the next state over.
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Biden voters and glaziers create a common cause.
“Fuck your windows.
Stay mad about it. Don’t bother replacing them soon ”
https://twitter.com/defendpdx/status/1322834045147910144
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A vid from Scene’s post. Priceless.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1322957092412686343
Trump people can stop traffic too.
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OH!! They get better?
https://twitter.com/LRedSchoolHouse/status/1322984460153925634/photo/1
See the ANTIFA strapped to his hood like a trophy deer?
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Biden even losing on the Lefty Youtube vote. 2.1K to 2.4k(down votes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tIC5t6QsFY
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Posted by: D | 01 November 2020 at 10:39 AM
Paper of Record, fish? You mean The Scooper?
UR funny…when you lil arms wave.
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robertC 1122am – You really don’t know, do you?
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Poor buttsore Proggys.. It’s OK when YOU do it. False reporting is a CRIME.
“12:10 p.m. — Multiple callers from locations throughout the county reported reckless drivers associated with a Trump rally, as well as “obnoxious” loudspeakers and inappropriate signs.
Any businesses vandalized? Cars with Biden stickers set on fire? Anyone with a Biden T-shirt beat to within an inch of their lives?
I have seen the kind of “inappropriate” signage of YOURS
as your block the sidewalks and street corners, with YOUR loudspeakers.
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WHO CAN TELL AN EAGLE FROM A BLUE HEN?
“Not Joe Biden, apparently. In his latest campaign brain failure, Biden touted his longstanding association with Philadelphia by pointing out that he was wearing an Eagles jacked. Only he wasn’t:”
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/who-can-tell-an-eagle-from-a-blue-hen.php
Like Gavin wearing a Cal Bears jacket with Winnie the Pooh on it, lol.
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A decent article…
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/abe-greenwald/yes-this-is-a-revolution/
…but I think he is whistling by the graveyard.
In the long run, I’d say that the most likely result of the Left’s revolution and the death of the American nation (as opposed to ‘country’) will be competing autocracies. Will a movement based on freedom and merit be enough to counter the Blue Mob? or do you simply end up with a Red Mob? It’s early days yet and the crystal ball is cloudy.
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Kunstlermonday:
“Historians of the future, pan-frying sowbugs over their campfires, will recollect in wonder and nausea the election of 2020 and the attempted controlled demolition of the USA by the Woke Rebellion and its incongruous avatar, Joe Biden, the Holy Ghost of Grift and Gaslight. All the forces of empire were arrayed in his support, as behind some sacred effigy of an obscure saint in a church processional, and yet all the voting public saw was a pitiful figure ranting at an audience of cars, an old dog barking pointlessly in a parking lot in the gathering darkness.
And then there was Trump… one word, Trump… no honorifics, as the Woke Legions spoke of the hated POTUS… Trump, who violated all their norms, threatened their perqs, and disputed their laughable identitarian shibboleths of racism, sexism, misogyny, homophobia, Islamophobia… the Golden Golem of Greatness summoning the deplorably un-Woke in their ghastly red hats from the hills and hollows by the thousands to hear him speak of “rounding the corner” and watch him do that charming dance thing to the disco tunes of his boomer youth, and the sheer high spirits of it all worked to dispel the Woke curse cast upon him by the legions of angry suburban wiccans, till we arrived at the electoral reckoning of November 3 — and then the real contest began. …”
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-awful-reckoning/
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Just one of those things you run into.
“Federal Employee Activist Tactics For Sabotage In Bureaucracy”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrPXiz4m7nk
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scenes 709am – Good article Mr scenes. Can you please expand on your vision of a “Red mob”, their membership and provenance. Thanks.
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George 5:29 –that is the point.. there is no difference. Trump’s thug army is no different than Hitler’s brown shirts. Their sole existence is to harass, demean, and denigrate the ‘enemy’.. democrats.. just like the brownshirts did to the Jews. and you and yours are part and parcel of this growing cancer by your failure to objectively recognize and repudiate such abhorrent unpatriotic behavior for just what it is; the road to fascism.
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Posted by: robert cross | 02 November 2020 at 08:45 AM
Spoiled white Antifa LARPers burning major American cities all summer long and Bertie gets her panties in a bunch now because somebody followed Joey Fingers campaign bus.
Quick….to the fainting couch!
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” Can you please expand on your vision of a “Red mob”, their membership and provenance.”
It would surprise the heck out of me to see a Right Wing that goes down the path of the destruction of businesses, burning of government buildings, marching through neighborhoods threatening the hoi polloi. lol, can you imagine the uproar from Ms. Cross if anything like that existed?
OTOH, it’s probably easier for the Right to organize if they detect a threat, real or imagined. They share stronger affinity than the Left’s loose coalition of special interest groups that want to squabble over the carcass of the Republic. Choosing a time of plague in order to tear down what was isn’t a stroke of genius, but it’s not a bad move.
So, how do you build a Red Mob. Places like Portland and Seattle are showing that government, especially the suborned variety, is insufficient to keep the peace in some cases. You can see what has happened in other places where authority has lapsed. Rodney King riots, Hurricane Katrina, it’s quite natural to put together ad hoc militias if you want to keep your home unburnt and your family unmolested. Unlike the Left, these aren’t expansionary movements but can certainly be prone to violence if threatened. These are normal people responding to extraordinary circumstances.
If it goes over some minimum level, it would be easy to see Lebanon-style mini-states as people become more irate. Naturally, how you look is as easy a way as any to sort humanity so the Left’s attempt to seize power by sorting everyone by race rather than class might result in an ugly affair.
Frankly, I’m just assuming an autocracy going forward. Lacking a unifying culture, countries with the blessing of diversity always end up there. They can be tolerably moral (like Singapore) or not (like the Soviet Union), but the latter seems more normal than the former.
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robertc 845am – with that comparison you again reinforce the major tenet of RR that our polarized nation has not only its own widely varying opinions, but also its own facts, history, mores, values, sense of justice and evil, interpretation of current events, … . We share little and are now two nations living and chafing within a common border. We have arrived at the Great Divide; what remains is to sort out how it should be implemented politically.
https://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2020/08/e-pluribus-unum-still-really.html
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Good Morning, I came across a great news site I know you will be interested in. All the news the way you want to hear it.
Who cares if it is true, it will feel so good,
https://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2020/10/hunter-biden-has-flipped-unconfirmed-report-3734572.html
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Here is a cute little clip where Rudy makes claims about Bidens “palatial” homes.
Then, underneath is the link that debunks the BS being spewed by lap dog Rudy.
Republican lies, lies, and more lies.
https://www.air.tv/watch?v=4IhEFttNTdqQsUtX6AMHjQ
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/22/fact-check-joe-biden-owns-2-homes-pictured-viral-meme/3720570001/
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Posted by: D | 02 November 2020 at 09:17 AM
(D)ugsKKKi……you should check that out….GeT baCk to Us WiTh a ComPLetE RepoRT….
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scenes 909am – From your description, “Red Mob” seems like an unfortunate choice of labels.
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Republican lies, lies, and more lies,
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1323287997564026880?s=20
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LOL Douchey.. All those “Republican lies” always come out as fact at some point. Now tell us again what those “LIB facts” actually turned out to be. You know(lies),, Trump colluding with the Russians and all…..
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re: Hunter Biden flip
That just sounds like a 4chan post.
It’s pretty obvious that young Hunter has the protection of the bureaucracy and that the whole tawdry episode will get memory-holed regardless of who wins the election.
It’s funny how up in arms people get with the occasional Putin offing of a political opponent but something like the Epstein situation fades without trace.
Truth is, if you want less corruption you need two things.
. Smaller government with less tendrils into all matters.
. Common culture that values hard work, honesty in dealings, all that boring stuff.
Not gonna happen. We’re really not that far from having Senators nailing the hands of their political rivals at the Rostra.
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Posted by: D | 02 November 2020 at 09:29 AM
Whine, whine and more whine! TEAM D invented the bogus photograph scam. I guess I can see you being upset at them running “your” scam.
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Call Bill Barr! The FBI is investigating the Biden Bus Incident! Trump is flipping out!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-lashes-out-after-fbi-announces-investigation-biden-bus-incident-n1245728?fbclid=IwAR0k6RHOMlACLdOj8SvkR-14fN0LMKiHzGykfecuB18b-BYZj3-FF2XKXUM
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American ISIS! Democracy is on the line!
https://www.facebook.com/281168802721/photos/a.10150108003162722/10158930076157722/
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“From your description, “Red Mob” seems like an unfortunate choice of labels.”
Well, “Red Army” doesn’t have quite the right ring.
What does one call a self-organized extra-legal group? A ‘militia’ supplements the established order.
Given the amount of organization, I’m not sure that ‘Blue Mob’ is the right moniker either.
You also have the problem of describing an expansionary group vs. a self-defense variety.
The right phrase doesn’t spring to mind.
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From the ‘you’re on your own department’:
One thing the .gov is actually good at is protecting itself.
“The White House on lockdown: A federal law enforcement source tells NBC that beginning tomorrow, crews will build a “non-scalable” fence to secure the WH complex, Ellipse and Lafayette Square.
250 National Guardsmen have been put on standby, reporting to Metro Police officials.”
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1323092344053354498
Although I’m surprised that the DC government (like Portland) hasn’t demanded the fence being torn down. The better to eat you with, my dear.
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d: “The FBI is investigating the Biden Bus Incident! Trump is flipping out!”
moi @8:59 November 1, Year Zero:
“I’ll bet you a sizable sum that the FBI will get called in to thoroughly investigate the evil Nazi pickup truck flag people. Maybe they can use the same team who thoroughly investigated the Bubba Wallace noose incident.”
Got it in one. (thank you thank you [bows to crowd])
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Posted by: D | 02 November 2020 at 09:41 AM
American ISIS! Democracy is on the line!
Quick….to the urine soaked fainting chair….I saw a crap ton of these guys in Auburn this past Saturday!
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One this for sure. “our” mob can shoot better than “their” mob.
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The elections going to be over by 7 o’clock. Trumps going to win Pennsylvania and Michigan and he’s going to explode the blue wall. Done
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scenes 943am – Good points. If we consider BLM and Antifa to be organized revolutionary organizations bent on fundamentally transforming our Republic, then I would not call them Blue Mobs. However, such organizations can support and launch Blue Mobs, which are a type of shock troops that gather and rampage in our cities. They may have other revolutionary units doing or preparing other work to bring down the US, units to which we have yet to be introduced.
I would mirror those comments for the Right, save I’m not aware of any rightwing organizations that support large wholesale mobs rampaging concurrently through multiple cities. The best the Left can point to are the relatively mild opposition of a few independent and sparsely populated bands. The two sides don’t really compare. However, that does not mean that the Right cannot in short order form such an overarching organization that can summon, form, and support organized militia units. But, I can’t really see such a rightwing organization launching equivalent rioting, looting, and burning mobs as are and have always been common from the Left. Were they to attempt such mirrored operations, they would instantly lose their raison d’etre and widespread support.
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Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?
https://scontent.fsac1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/123067605_3530376813652014_6079153834497938565_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=M36BGXkuMzAAX9hdQ-i&_nc_ht=scontent.fsac1-1.fna&oh=e41fde87facb9a8c9b80599f18a36c45&oe=5FC67508
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Posted by: D | 02 November 2020 at 12:43 PM
Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?
Of course I’m better off (D)ugsKKKi…..four years ago, if you recall Darth Menopause was going to be President. That never happened, therefore I am “better off”.
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Looks like Trump planned for a one term presidency.
“Republicans, Not Biden, Are About to Raise Your Taxes
President Trump built in tax increases beginning in 2021, for nearly everyone but those at the very top.
By Joseph E. Stiglitz
Mr. Stiglitz, a university professor at Columbia, is a Nobel laureate in economics.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/opinion/republicans-biden-taxes.html?fbclid=IwAR1RKpsu–zO-wHFY1CwjYzejWaZN3zY-kaoGs08GhCiD-mUxwdkcunbkKs
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Posted by: D | 02 November 2020 at 01:44 PM
Mr. Stiglitz, a university professor at Columbia, is a Nobel laureate in economics.
There is no such thing as a Nobel laureate in economics.
….ask your minder for another dose.
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re D 144pm – What Stiglitz isn’t telling us (and D doesn’t understand) is that the only way the 2017 tax cut bill was going to pass Congress without a Democrat filibuster in the Senate (51R,49D) was with the proviso that the tax cut would be temporary. It was a Democrat demand that the Columbia sumbich is hiding from the light thinkers. Trump and Repubs took the deal so that it would kick economic growth out of doldrums (which it did), expecting to win in 2020 to make the cuts permanent. The Dems bet against that hoping that they would win and raise taxes even more. Now the Dems and their local lackeys are floating the narrative that it was all big plot by Repubs to enrich the rich. Their Big Lies and bullshit are never ending.
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In the category of “voter suppression by republicans fails’… the Texas Supreme Court threw out a lawsuit by republicans attempting to negate 127,000 early drive-through votes in a mostly black democratic party leaning neighborhood of Houston. What will those nasty republicans try to pull off next to rob people of their vote? Stay tuned to Reality Show Politics, the new replacement for the Kardashians, brought to you by the Trump Organization.
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Posted by: Wine Aunt | 02 November 2020 at 02:33 PM
Do you ever stop whining bertie?
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