[Given this week’s SCOTUS ruling on Indian lands in Oklahoma (here and here), the future of all 19th century abrogated treaties with our indigenous Americans will come up for review. All this will create chaos in the governmental jurisdictions involved, not the least being the status of non-Indians and their property rights. gjr]
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rebanesruminations.com 
394 responses to “Sandbox – 11jul20”
Election update:
No significant movement towards Trump at this time. At this point I’m focusing on delegate counts and 270towin is my roadmap, In this consensus delegate count they show that Trump needs to win all tossup votes and flip one that leans Biden to win. This of course can change. For your reading pleasure I’ll give you a daily update on this map. If you click on “pundit forecast” you can see the same map as applied to other analysts interpretations. All in all it’s a great tool for tracking the election.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast
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punchy 1024am
Rasmussen has Trump at 49/49.
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“Rasmussen has Trump at 49/49”
Exactly the same as Obama’s approval rating in 2012. Funny thing. This assume a person (or newsman) stuck with the same poll rather than cherry picking.
…and three years ago Trump was at 41% approve, 59% disapprove.
What exactly was the point of Paul’s posts all this time? If you simply added up his ever-so-informative posts, we’d see Trump at a -120% approval rating.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/comeback-trump-neck-and-neck-with-biden-45-47-approval-equal-with-obamas
Obviously it’s a horserace. It’s a bummer having my family’s safety on the line with something as trivial as an election but c’est la guerre.
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I am only seriously looking at electoral votes at this stage Gregory. By the way Rasmussen is way off the RCP average for job approval, which has him down by 13.9 (average of around 10 polls). Why do you think that is?
Have you looked at the vote count on the 270towin utility? If you’re interested in the election that’s the place to go as time goes on. For your convenience here it is again? You can add your own slant and see how it changes the vote count.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast
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Like a toddler with a hand in a jar of jam @1235 LOL
😉
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See what happens when they stop being journalists and become po’ ol’ fakenewsmen –
https://www.foxnews.com/media/washington-post-settles-nicholas-sandmann-defamation-lawsuit-in-covington-catholic-high-school-controversy
😉
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punchy 1235pm
Why do you think that is?
BTW… I found it interesting that 270towin states that it uses the 2016 results to fill in states that haven’t had a poll, but they don’t list for what states they use the 2016 results. Why do you think that is?
I think you’ve moved away from the rcp version of the same thing because rcp isn’t giving you what you want… Biden winning.
FYI… 270towin blew it badly in 2016.
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We need to prepare for a total meltdown for Emery when Trump trounces Biden. If one takes the time to check the underlying breakdowns of the polls, even FOX, they all seem to undercount by ten percent the R’s. When that is added back in Trump wins big.
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Go woke and go broke –
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/07/24/aes-viewership-plummets-49-percent-after-canceling-live-pd/
😉
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Gregory
How wrong you are. RCP consensus polling shows Biden winning by 8.7 om the Biden-Trump election average poll and has Biden leading by 13.8 on the job approval average poll. It is only Rasmussen that has Trump even close. Rasmussen is very mercurial and can shift 10 points in a week. What were you thinking when you said this?
“I think you’ve moved away from the rcp version of the same thing because rcp isn’t giving you what you want… Biden winning.”
Here’s rcp for reference. Show me where they indicate Trump is winning. First job approval
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
Here’s Presidential election polling average
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
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Au contraire, punch
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html
You skipped over their EC totals.
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About two hours ago, punch wrote, “I am only seriously looking at electoral votes at this stage Gregory. By the way Rasmussen is way off the RCP average for job approval…”
And then an hour later he’s back to approval and popular vote polls.
Comparing apples to aardvarks.
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No I didn’t Gregory. They show 222 for Biden and 115 for Trump based on the model created by 270towin that RCP has adopted . That’s a 2-1 lead based on their average polling. Do you think that’s a good sign for Trump? That means that Trump has to win 156 0f the 201 toss ups. That’s the task at hand.
Glad you discovered the 270towin model.
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Paul Emery sez:
“Here’s the grim reality for the Trumpsters according to RCP.
Hillary has 256 solid delegates
Trump has 170
There are 112 toss-ups available
Hillary has only to win 15 to be over the 270 top
Trump has to win 101 0f the toss up delegates.
nuff said on that matter.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Posted by: Paul Emery | 18 October 2016 at 01:27 PM
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Yes, you did, punch.
At this point in time, Mike Dukakis was 16% over Bush in polls. What you are doing is bogus.
And you did it over and over and over and over a’gin four years ago.
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Chalk it up to a severe case of TDS, he should have gotten the salve when it might have helped. Too far gone now Gregory.
😉
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Yasa massa joe i be staying on the plantation votin like you say sir, i ain’t black black enough if donts be voting for you massa joe. Just keep those checks a commin! Tru dat –
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2020/07/24/bevelyn-beatty-charlamagnes-interview-with-biden-reveals-how-blacks-allow-democrats-to-degrade-us/
😉
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LOL Emery,, I got polled by some nitwit… I said I was voting for Biden….Like plenty others the are screwing with the pollsters. Operation 🖕 you is working better than planned.
And your taking the bait.
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The Tack Room is back to it’s old self. Noticed all the cars parked around the place. EVERY table is out in the parking lot, and every table was occupied.
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Ok Gregory. Spin it your way. Either way Trump has to make a move and soon. Pretty pathetic that you would hang your flag on such a dog but that’s your choice.
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Sure thing Emery,, and your voting for Joementia. Everything he’s supposedly saying he’s “gonna do” Trump already has.
You have as many screws loose as Biden. Biden and his wet nurses are looking for any reason NOT to debate Trump.
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Ten bucks says Cheryl Cook is Roberta Cross.
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“Ok Gregory. Spin it your way. Either way Trump has to make a move and soon. Pretty pathetic that you would hang your flag on such a dog but that’s your choice.”
Fuck you and the horse you rode in on, Punch.
My flag isn’t hung on Trump or the GOP, but I’ll be damned if the lies you tell will go unanswered.
Conrad Black wrote these lines in the last day or so. I think they tell the story fairly succinctly:
“The presidential election result is now down to five questions.
Can the president override the Democratic media’s thunderous campaign to terrorize the country over the coronavirus?
Can the president successfully connect Joe Biden’s campaign to the hooligans, anti-white racists, and urban guerrillas who effectively are being encouraged by the corrupt Democratic mayors of many of the nation’s largest cities?
Will the economic recovery and the decline in the unemployment generated by the COVID-19 shutdown continue at its recent pace and strengthen the economy as a pro-Trump electoral argument?
Will the Republicans make adequately clear to the country the authoritarian and Marxist implications of the Biden-Sanders unity document?
Will special counsel John Durham indict senior members of the Obama Administration over their handling of the spurious allegation of collusion between Donald Trump and the Russian government in the 2016 election and Justice Department violations of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), and how will Biden himself come through it?”
https://amgreatness.com/2020/07/23/the-five-burning-questions-of-this-election-season/
Whatever the result on he morning after the election, I’ll be with Matt Stone, co-creator of South Park, who famously stated “I hate conservatives but I really fucking hate liberals”. I’ll be able to sleep just fine whichever way the election goes… but the schadenfreude will be exquisite if Trump wins again.
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Thanks for confirming that you’re carrying trumps flag. You don’t have to say anymore about it. That screed pretty much contains all the stock stuff that you need to have in your satchel to be a Trump supporter. I thought you were more of an original thinker even a libertarian. How any libertarian could support Trump is beyond me but now you said it so there’s not much left to talk about.
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Punch, you are a contemptible ass.
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Posted by: Paul Emery | 24 July 2020 at 11:00 PM
How any libertarian could support Trump is beyond me but now you said it so there’s not much left to talk about.
Whew……it’s over then? I thought you’d never stop carping.
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Paul Emery: “How any libertarian could support Trump is beyond me ”
as are most things I would guess, but why would a libertarian choose Biden over Trump?
If nothing else, I’d vote Trump an honorary sainthood merely for uncovering the gigantic propaganda machine built into MSM and the internet monopolies. Anyone who spends a few minutes digging into a story can now see what liars media outlets are.
So, Paul’s unanswered questions o’ the day. Which Presidential candidate will result in less government interference in an individuals life? Why?
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Fresh meat:
“The mysterious “Primary Subsource” that Christopher Steele has long hidden behind to defend his discredited Trump-Russia dossier is a former Brookings Institution analyst — Igor “Iggy” Danchenko, a Russian national whose past includes criminal convictions and other personal baggage ignored by the FBI in vetting him and the information he fed to Steele, according to congressional sources and records obtained by RealClearInvestigations. Agents continued to use the dossier as grounds to investigate President Trump and put his advisers under counter-espionage surveillance.
The 42-year-old Danchenko, who was hired by Steele in 2016 to deploy a network of sources to dig up dirt on Trump and Russia for the Hillary Clinton campaign, was arrested, jailed and convicted years earlier on multiple public drunkenness and disorderly conduct charges in the Washington area and ordered to undergo substance-abuse and mental-health counseling, according to criminal records.”
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/07/24/meet_steele_dossiers_primary_subsource_fabulist_russian_at_us_think_tank_whose_boozy_past_the_fbi_ignored_124601.html
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Gregory: “Punch, you are a contemptible ass.”
Well, of course he is. He’s simply playing his role as the resident troll. The endorphin rush he gets from eliciting a response must be massive. It’s part of that ‘newscraft’ superpower.
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Emery will be dreaming of a Trump Presidency if Biden swindles the election. Vote by mail? How many votes will NEVER make it to the ballot counting center? We have already seen ballots “disappearing”. The same with ballot harvesting. Ballots from known Repubs will wind up like puppies and kittens at the bottom of some lake, still in the sack.
How do you like those LIB voters in Seattle and Portland Emery?
And the stupid LIBshits who want to tear down statues of slave freers?
Better keep a low profile Emery,, you don’t want it to get out that your voting for the party of slavery.
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looks yo me reading Paul Emery’s screeds here that he is in favor of Biden and therefore rioting and burning and anti-cop policies. He is truly a low life ANTIFA and needs to get re-educated into the American way of life. How did Paul Emery become a ANTIFA? And a BLM affectionate as well?
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ToddJ@8:25AM July 25, Year Zero
When you read Paul’s newscraft here, it’s probably best to hear it in this voice:
https://twitter.com/SlightlyOffens/status/1286986331206365185
It all makes sense then.
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There was a Reason/SoHo Forum online debate a couple days ago on the question of who Libertarians should vote for:
https://reason.com/video/should-libertarians-vote-for-biden-jorgensen-or-trump-a-soho-forum-debate/
Biden came in last. JoJo came in first.
Arguing for Trump was the Manhattan Contrarian himself…
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-7-22-soho-forum-presentation-why-libertarians-should-vote-for-trump-in-2020
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Walt: “And the stupid LIBshits who want to tear down statues of slave freers?”
I don’t much care who a town has a statue of, it’s just that a mob of religious ecstatics shouldn’t be in charge of public art. A simple vote by residents or City Council will do whether you are erecting a Nathan Bedford Forrest or removing it.
In any case, iconoclasm is just a symptom of a deeper illness. There never was any guarantee that a state with the founding principles of the US was permanent.
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PaulE 1100pm – ‘No one’s interests, objectives, values, … will exactly match yours. The best you can ever do is support those with whom you share the most in common.’
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GR 932am
Punchy’s taunts (1100pm) aren’t meant to be taken literally or academically… it’s cancel culture ostracizing at work. A variation of Pelline’s ‘social media is changing how we communicate’.
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Can’t wait to handicap this one 🙂 as of today
(I reserve the right to shift numbers before election day)
Biden 51%
Trump 45%
Other 4%
Biden 334 EC Votes
Trump 203 EC Votes
Biden wins by roughly 8 million votes.
This is going to be for modern times a historic total spanking of Trumpism.
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“The presidential election result is now down to five questions.
“Can the president override the Democratic media’s thunderous campaign to terrorize the country over the coronavirus?”
175,000 dead. Most models say 250,000 dead by November 2nd.
“Can the president successfully connect Joe Biden’s campaign to the hooligans, anti-white racists, and urban guerrillas who effectively are being encouraged by the corrupt Democratic mayors of many of the nation’s largest cities?”
Fortunately Americans see this as the lie that it is…they prefer their own local LE to anonymous federal agents…and many of you used to too, until the President became your jackbooted thug.
Will the economic recovery and the decline in the unemployment generated by the COVID-19 shutdown continue at its recent pace and strengthen the economy as a pro-Trump electoral argument?
“Will the Republicans make adequately clear to the country the authoritarian and Marxist implications of the Biden-Sanders unity document?”
Where do you get this tripe Gregory…
“Will special counsel John Durham indict senior members of the Obama Administration over their handling of the spurious allegation of collusion between Donald Trump and the Russian government in the 2016 election and Justice Department violations of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), and how will Biden himself come through it?”
At this point even if Durham did hand down indictments they would be seen as the politically motivated and fundamentally corrupt intervention by William Barr that they are.
They very point that you think these are the questions just makes me laugh at what a complete corn in a Trump turd you are.
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Steven Frisch | 25 July 2020 at 10:09 AM
Trump 53%
Biden 43%
AOC/Bernie/Kanye 7%
Trump 334 EC Votes
Biden 203 EC Votes
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Paul Emery is laughing at us all as he knows he simply comes here to start a fight. And we accommodate his perverse ways. Stop responding to his ludicrous musings and keep his blood pressure high in anticipation.
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Ooops…miseed this one:
“Will the economic recovery and the decline in the unemployment generated by the COVID-19 shutdown continue at its recent pace and strengthen the economy as a pro-Trump electoral argument?”
Seriously if you don’t see that the “recovery” has stalled while we deal with slowing the spread of Covid-19 you are delusional.
Between now and November 2nd unemployment will rise…and the Q3 forecasts are for a a year to date aggregate 20% contraction, even with gains made in Q2 of the US economy.
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Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 25 July 2020 at 10:20 AM
I would be willing to bet you $1000 right now that when the votes are all counted the results will be closer to my prediction than yours.
Are you game shitheel?
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S Frisch – There’s no point in trying to talk sense with you. The pandemic is slamming the entire world save the isolated islands and even there their economies are in the toilet. Our nations death rate is far below the Euros and would be even lower if we didn’t have the massive death count from a handful of Dem run areas (NY city etc). Our economy was doing far better for non-whites than ever – even under Lord Obama. The Dems are promising a re-run of the Great Depression if they gain control. Won’t that be fun?
As far as your brain-dead spittle-spraying about Trump being a “jack booted thug”. Really? A handful of fed agents trying to protect fed property due to deliberate non-action by local authorities. That statement of yours is pure idiot hysteria.
The Russia-gate hoax is over – it was and is a set-up lie from start to finish. The Dems weaponized the FBI to damage the opposition. That is pure evil, although I’m sure those at the top will never be touched.
You lefty morons are so obsessed with trying to get rid of Trump, you are willing to destroy our country and ignore massive law-breaking from the executive branch down to the street.
What will you have gained if you ‘win’ in November?
The poor and the POC will be the biggest losers. But you lily-white leftys don’t give one good g’d damn.
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LOL Stevie.. Those “ECO bastards” of yours sure ain’t all that “ECO” burning tires and private property in ECOville.
As surmised,, it’s all bullshit.
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Emery’s and “others” view and hope for America.(or what it will turn out to be if Biden buys the election.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/25/exclusive-videos-hours-long-battle-downtown-portland-rioters-protests/
This what happens when candyass LIBS run cities.
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Steven Frisch | 25 July 2020 at 10:27 AM
Don’t gambl bub. But I will win this.
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Specifically Todd you are publicly going on record saying that I am a member of Antifa. You can deny that now if you wish but here is your exact quote.
” How did Paul Emery become a ANTIFA?”
Todd 8:25 AM
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I’ll go one better..
Emery needs to show where he has DENIED being on the ANTIFA side of things.
You sure have been parroting plenty of what they say Emery.
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Posted by: Scott O | 25 July 2020 at 10:52 AM
Scott, you care to cite a source on your statement that,”our nations death rate is far below the Euros…” We are actually in the middle of the pack of the “Euros.” But remember that is the death rate per case. Since the “Euros” have done a far better job than we have of flattening their curve, although some of their death rates have been high (UK, France, Italy, Spain)their curve has gone down, as opposed to our which is rising like a friggin’ rocket.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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Posted by: Walt | 25 July 2020 at 11:36 AM
Yes, Paul, because everyone knows that in logic the absence of an affirmative statement is the same thing as the presence of a negative one.
It’s wonder Walt even know how to breathe.
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