Rebane's Ruminations
April 2020
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George Rebane

This may be the most definitive evidence that dumbth is the established order of the day in America.  Everyone has been screaming about testing, and continues that to this minute.  But no one has told us why test – what kind of metric is testing supposed to provide to public policy makers, and how will it be used to support those policies.  I would think that this would be something that we would be briefed on instead of hearing from one side that there are not enough tests, and the other citing the numbers of tests that have been administered and shipped.

The dumbest thing I hear from the daily briefings is that we have now given over 3 million infection tests – really!!?  BFD!  What the hell are you going to do with the results of 3 million infection tests, results obtained willy-nilly from all over the country over the last 5-6 weeks?  I don’t hear the Drs Fauci or Birx telling us jack about how the test results will be used.  And what should be even more amazing – but is not – is that our crack journalists, double dummies all, have never thought to even consider asking for the purpose of testing.

Some silly shit answer like, ‘well, it’ll tell the healthcare people if the tested person has C19’ – so what?!  If the sumbich already feels poorly with C19 symptoms, it isn’t the test that’s going to get him admitted into a clinic or hospital.  And if he isn’t symptomatic, then it’s pure happenstance that a serendipitous test of unknown reliability tests positive, and he’s then advised to get off the streets, and wait until his symptoms appear before he bothers anyone.

And then some other worthy will explain to the peanut gallery that we need testing to find out the extent of the pandemic and identify new C19 hot spots early.  Does anyone at NIH or CDC have a clue about the kind of testing program required – its extent, frequency, and duration – for that??  We hope that someone there passed a stats class somewhere in their career, but today they sure as hell don’t act like it. 

Infection testing needs to be conducted continuously on random samples drawn from critical target populations – remember, infection tests are snapshots the results of which can and do change overnight.  To be fair, Dr Fauci last night finally acknowledged that neither the US nor any other country has the ability to do the kind of infection testing for early identification of hot spots.  And don’t get me started again on factoring in test reliabilities into any kind of a non-existent organized testing program; no one has even made a peep about that. 

Immunity (antibody/antigen) testing gives time-dependent enduring results that tells us the extent of herd immunity that may already exist in a target population.  However, Dr Birx also finally admitted that today’s immunity test reliabilities are so bad that it’s futile to use them with any confidence to determine the recovered share of target populations.  When and if such tests become reliable, at that point if the recovered share is sufficiently high, then even ‘lives over profits’ policy makers can start staging back-to-work policies.  And if the recovered population grows too slowly, then that advises that the target population is hunkering down too hard, and we again need to loosen things up a mite to start making progress against C19.

But in the meantime, what in hell is going on out there with our political leaders and their teams of so-called ‘experts’??  Given what we can and cannot do in the testing field, the known attributes of C19, and the general dynamics of virulent epidemics, it’s past time to start a programmed loosening up of America’s commerce.

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11 responses to “What is the purpose of testing???”

  1. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Confusion reigns (and rains).
    “BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.
    The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.
    Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.”
    https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64
    Poor test? Poor test protocol? Lotsa symptomless symptoms? Who knows? It’s the CCP-19 game!
    Thus far, the point of testing is feelz good, (problematical) accuracy without knowledge, talking point in 2020. Worth every penny.

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  2. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    END THE SHUTDOWNS! DO IT FOR THE CHILDREN
    “The United Nations warns that hundreds of thousands of children worldwide may die because of governments’ overreaction to the COVID-19 virus:…..
    So: end the shutdown orders now. Do it for the children. If it saves just one life, it will be worth it. Remember?”
    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/end-the-shutdowns-do-it-for-the-children.php

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  3. L Avatar
    L

    Would love to hear (seriously) the views of our participating lefties. How ’bout it guys, help us out and tell us how this works? Surely, they have an opinion or two…

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  4. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Testing…math tests to go down deeper in the crapper. We all lose.
    Studies: American Kids Will Lose An Entire Grade In Math From Shutdowns
    Our nation’s leaders are demanding that American children pay for this crisis through debt-financed spending, while depriving them of the education they need to make that even remotely possible
    https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/17/we-are-making-american-kids-pay-for-coronavirus-shutdowns-and-thats-unfair/

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  5. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    America heads towards the exit (with graphs)
    https://knowledgeisgood.net/2020/04/18/america-heads-for-the-exit/

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  6. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    A Deadly if Dutiful Deference
    The American public has been dutiful to the point of self-harm in heeding the injunctions of the people who manage their lives and livelihoods.
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/18/a-deadly-if-dutiful-deference/

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  7. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    “END THE SHUTDOWNS! DO IT FOR THE CHILDREN”
    C’est la mort. My guess is that any semi-successful handling of an epidemic will always seem like an overreaction. There’s some sort of rule of thumb built into that.
    I might have mentioned it before, but I like the idea of making masks stylish. We’ll get some basketball player to wear a Nike beswooshed mask and it’ll become all the rage. If the globalist ideal is to stuff more and people into cities and mass transit, it’s more efficient after all, this’ll have to happen.
    Next step will be some sort of illness testing done at the subway entrances, maybe just stick yer finger into a sampling machine.
    Once the underclass is on board with masks, the better to guard against viruses and rob liquor stores, matters will improve. Maybe we could simultaneously lower greenhouse gases and have 20 billion people on the planet! One giant diverse pool of meat and happiness.

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  8. Bill Tozerr Avatar
    Bill Tozerr

    DID THE SHUTDOWN OF NEW YORK CITY FAIL?
    “Given the extraordinary discrepancy between New York City and the rest of the country, it would have made sense to quarantine New York from the rest of us, just as it made sense to ban travel to the U.S. from China (over the objection of more or less every prominent Democrat) at the end of January. President Trump publicly flirted with the idea of quarantining New York, but Andy “If it saves just one life it’s worth it” Cuomo went crazy, and Trump backed down. At around the same time, Rhode Island’s highway patrol was stopping vehicles from New York to try to prevent them from bringing the COVID contagion to Rhode Island–a good idea, in principle, from which Rhode Island’s governor quickly backed down.”
    So, did New York City’s shutdown fail? Or was there never, in fact, a real shutdown at all?
    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php

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  9. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    re: BillT@8:24AM
    Excellent article. It’s hard to avoid seeing New York as a giant wet market in any case. Given it’s lack of relation to the rest of the country, you could argue that it becomes America’s Singapore with it’s own rules and controlled border.
    That article also led me to this:
    THE SUBWAYS SEEDED THE MASSIVE CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC IN NEW YORK CITY
    Jeffrey E. Harris NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
    http://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_13-Apr-2020.pdf
    Oh well, so much for mass transit as a concept. It not only provides personal security issues but you get sick and die as a bonus.

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  10. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Scenes
    You got to feel sorry for little Rhode Island. Testing won’t help those poor bastards in Rhode Island. On one hand they have New Yorkers fleeing the urban ‘too many rats in a cage’ jungle arriving in Rhode Island (and their hospitals), and on the other hand, they have Massachusetts residents fleeing the new hot spot of Boston and going to Rhode Island and ending up in RI’s hospitals. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place. The death rate in RI is kind of hard to accurately measure because so many out of staters are dying there.
    Reminds me of back in the day when I was having a Mary Wannabee moment and shoved some “facts” into a dear sweet older woman who worked in the office of a local hospital (not here). I pointed out that her hospital had the highest death rate in the region and was being sanctioned by some bureaucratic agency.
    She replied that the reason the death rate was higher than average is because all the nursing homes where sending the patients over to the hospital in their last days of life. They arrive and die. Not much the hospital could do. This was back when Hospice was not wide spread as it is today. End of live care meant send them to the hospital and give them morphine to make them comfortable. Minus the ones on their last hours sent from the convalescent homes, her hospital had excellent care and was well before average for deaths under hospital care.
    Gotta ask what religion they are so she could call a priest, rabbi, pastor, or Druid to administer last rights….which is why I said in a previous post that when they are racing you down the hospital corridors and someone keeps asking what religion you are, you know you are in for a rough day, lol.
    Testing?

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