Rebane's Ruminations
April 2020
S M T W T F S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  

ARCHIVES


OUR LINKS


YubaNet
White House Blog
Watts Up With That?
The Union
Sierra Thread
RL “Bob” Crabb
Barry Pruett Blog

[Dr Hullett is a longtime friend, colleague, and RR reader.  As systems engineers and developers, we have traveled much of the long road together.  He has given permission to publish this personal correspondence.]

Wayne Hullett, PhD

The coronavirus particles are too small to be seen. A doctor on Youtube suggested thinking about coronavirus particles as the glitter worn by some people at festive events. If you have ever gotten any glitter on you, then you know how difficult it is to get off. As George has pointed out, the source of this glitter is the lungs of people who have the disease, most of whom do not yet have symptoms and thus probably do not know they have it. The glitter exits their bodies with normal breathing, talking, coughs and sneezes, and becomes an aerosol in the air. It can float in the air for several minutes before it settles on the floor, on nearby surfaces, or gets inhaled into the lungs of someone nearby. Those who inhale enough of it also become infected, and after an incubation period, they too become a source of the glitter. Anyone who touches a surface that has accumulated some glitter and then touches their mouth, nose or eyes also lets it into their system and can also become infected, thus becoming another source. This is how it spreads exponentially.

Here is a good discussion of the size of virus particles (the glitter) and how well mask materials trap them.

Three common materials and the amount of virus particles they trap are:

Hankerchief    28%
Surgical Mask    80%
N95 Mask    96%

There are two reasons to wear a mask: 1. to keep particles out and 2. to keep particles in. If you wear a mask to keep from catching the virus, you would want an N95 mask, which requires some care and training in fitting. This is what our doctors and nurses wear when treating coronavirus patients. And the patients (I hope) wear surgical masks to protect the medical personnel.

Now, I am guessing (I am an engineer, not a medical doctor), that the body's immune system can deal with a small number of particles, which is why the N95 masks, at 96% effectiveness) seem to work. Also, older people's immune system does not work as well as when they were young, which would explain the increased mortality with age.

The best reason to wear a mask, it seems to me, is to keep the particles IN; to keep from spreading them. A surgical mask (the blue pleated mask you see in hospital TV shows and any street scene of an Asian country) traps 80% of the particles. This, to me, is huge. If only 20% of the particles are getting into the air and on surfaces, then much fewer people will get infected. I am not sure whether it is 1 for 1 (80% fewer infections), but if the body's immune system is able to handle a small amount of particles, then common sense tells me that there will me many fewer infections, thus reducing the impact on the hospital system and buying us more time to develop an effective treatment or vaccine, resulting in fewer deaths.

So, while social distancing is effective, the next best thing we can do is for EVERYONE, especially the younger who may have only a mild case and not even know they are carriers, to wear surgical masks most of the time. Older folks should stay at home, and wear N95 masks when they have to emerge to buy groceries.

I am troubled by the CDC party line that masks do not help. I think they issued that statement because there is a shortage of masks, and by claiming that they do not help they hope to avert a rush to buy and horde masks, thus denying them to the medical professionals who have a greater need. Even the Surgeon General was defending that lie on TV today. I think the correct approach is to not lie, but to tell the truth and to cure the shortage. There are around 330 million people in the country, and the masks are single use, so I am thinking that we need a production capacity of somewhere between 100 million and 500 million surgical masks per day, and maybe 10% to 20% of that of N95 masks. Considering production capability this country developed in WWII, I would think that is readily achievable, for as long as it takes to develop and get approval for a vaccine. They should be on the supermarket shelves next to the bread and milk (and beer), and cost less than a penny each. In the interim, the CDC and Surgeon General could help not by lying but by showing us how to make the most effective homemade masks from commonly available materials. There are already a number of Youtube videos that show how to make masks of various qualities.

So, the key, for most people, is not to wear the mask to keep from getting the virus, but to keep everyone else from getting it from you, because you may not know you are a carrier. Protect your fellow citizens by wearing a mask.

**** [In my reply I included the following.}

Thanks much Wayne, I will definitely post this.  My take on masks may be a bit more broader than yours.  Not only do they reduce the fraction/size of the exhaled aerosols, but also capture a significant fraction (perhaps not as great as the exhaled part) of the infectious aerosol particles during inhalation.  Bottom line, a wide use of masks will help in two ways to reduce the ‘reproduction’ factor/rate among a population of infected pre-symptomatic and vulnerable uninfected people. 

Posted in , , ,

74 responses to “Face Masks – A considered view”

  1. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Given the high demand for the good masks for medical, first responders and the infected how are we going to quickly meet the added demand for the 300 million general public?
    😉

    Like

  2. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    re: DonB@6:30PM
    Oh well, like I opined on the 27th: “I’m not sure what the percentage of disease transmission is by the sick person outputting viruses via touch vs. breathing/sneezing, but I wonder what difference it would make to simply put a mask on everybody for a couple of months.
    So, get the N95 thing going by beating on 3M until they produced 30 billion or so of the things,”
    Beating on (or bribing) is probably the operative word, although perhaps it’s harder to build the magic filter bit than you might think. If it’s purely an intellectual property issue, just get out that ol’ stick.
    As far as their efficacy is concerned, I think I put up a link showing Fauci admiting that they are of value a while back. As usual, you can’t trust nobody. I ground through a few papers on the subject (praise be to sci-hub) and they’re about as useful as you’d expect. Fauci is now making ‘maybe everyone should wear them’ noises.
    Hey, it’s all an odds game in any case. N95’s (or N100’s) are just a sort of Monte Carlo experiment you get to run.
    If anyone is interested, I can post up various methods for reuse,donning and doffing, fit checking. Dunno if a bit of glycerin is of value on a cheapie disposable mask.

    Like

  3. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    The reality –
    Coronavirus Battle Creates a Global ‘Free-for-All’ to Find Masks
    China vacuumed up a big share of global supplies after the outbreak emerged in January. It imported 2 billion masks in a five-week period starting then, according to Chinese customs data, roughly equivalent to 2 1/2 months of global production. It also imported 400 million pieces of other protective gear, from medical goggles to biohazard coveralls.
    Some factories make products of suspect quality and some sellers will even try to swindle buyers. Last Thursday, a court in the Chinese city of Shaoxing sentenced a man to over 10 years in prison for repeatedly selling what looked like a cargo of masks but had only tree branches inside.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-battle-creates-global-free-185859231.html
    😉

    Like

  4. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Cali was penny wise pound foolish and now the rooster has come home to roost –
    Disposing of more than $200 million in what are now hard-to-replace pandemic response supplies in order to save up to $5.8 million annually is a political travesty deserving of as deep a public investigation as any other serious misdeed of this century.
    This is a classic case of what happens when one party is in control of government — either party — and there is no effective loyal opposition to raise red flags and halt ill-advised, short-term financial Band-Aids that push the dire consequences into the future.
    Maintaining good government is often not a sexy topic, and voters often fail to appreciate intelligent foresight over headline-grabbing, knee-jerk reactions. They do so at their own peril, as we see now.
    If there isn’t a ventilator available for you, call your legislator and ask why.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/letters-editor-california-got-rid-100052483.html
    😉

    Like

  5. George Rebane Avatar

    DonB 816pm – Could you please repost this comment under the 31mar20 Scattershots where I pointed out this Democrat disgrace. Your detail is more relevant there. Thanks.

    Like

  6. The Estonian Fox Avatar
    The Estonian Fox

    Yes, don’t have a heart attack, from multiple sources-
    “As the coronavirus stretches New York City emergency rooms and paramedics to their limits, a regional EMT group has issued new guidelines almost unthinkable even days ago — if someone’s in cardiac arrest and you can’t revive them in the field, don’t bring them to the emergency room.
    The newly implemented order that takes effect Thursday was implemented in an effort to control the surge of patients in hospitals due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
    The guidance from the Regional Emergency Medical Services Council of New York City applies to the city as well as Nassau and Suffolk counties. The group, known as REMSCO, is the state-designated coordinating authority for the region.”

    Like

  7. The Estonian Fox Avatar
    The Estonian Fox

    When it comes to masks-
    Our esteemed medical & emergency people seem to be missing from the ballpark with being able to forecast. That is, predicting the future. That is, examining the decision tree for emergency planning of possible future events and probablilities thereof.
    With this Wuhan virus, the medicos are now considering whether it might be best to wear masks. How difficult is it to arrive at this choice? Do they know droplet sizes of coronaviruses? If not, why not? Are viruses carried on droplets and can stick to the large (10s of micron-size-holes in cheap masks, or are they weaponized into individual “particles” and will not “stick” to any kind of mask? It takes a substantial workout to weaponize anthrax, i.e. make it into really tiny, single-bacteria-spores, as we found out after 9/11. Otherwise it doesn’t float very far in the air.
    Who, or should it be WHO, our favorite UN sub-organization, is listening to this information that a lot of scientists & engineers already know? Even some (a few?; two?) politicians are capable of learning this as well. Why have they not implemented better information sooner, and not wait 2 months to tell us this?

    Like

  8. The Estonian Fox Avatar
    The Estonian Fox

    QUIZ time – What do these countries have in common?
    U.S., Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Iran, UK, Switzerland, Turkey, Belgium, Netherlands, Canada, Austria. (Hint – rhymes with Aucasians). Seems that the Wuhan virus (WV) has turned out to be a white disease. Sure, Turks & Iranians may not all be formally recognized as white, but that’s a distinction with no difference.
    So if you were a Chinese bioscientist at the Level 4 biolab in Wuhan, and had instructions from Beijing to further the glory of the country, what better way than to set loose the WV. So what if China loses 10,000,000 people – what can the remaining citizens do? The idea is cleaner and with more plausible deniability than if they delivered a nuke to Seattle.

    Like

  9. The Estonian Fox Avatar
    The Estonian Fox

    Good news – no school shootings at all so far in 2020. Even with the increase in background gun checks.
    Definition of mass shooting seems to have changed on Wikipedia. Covers any shooting with 4 or more VICTIMS, not 4 or more deaths.
    “This is a list of mass shootings in the United States that have occurred in 2020.[2][3] This article only includes shootings with at least four total victims, including the shooter(s). As of February 29, there have been 55 shootings that fit this criteria, resulting in 74 deaths and 199 injuries, for a total of 273 victims.”

    Like

  10. bewtie Avatar
    bewtie

    In the “dumber than a box of rocks” category –Duh Jon Trump said yesterday in reference to the mask shortage, “In many cases the scarf is better; it’s thicker. I mean you can — depending on the material, it’s thicker,”
    That doesn’t really coincide very well with your assessment of the efficiency of various masks above. What is the excuse this time for yet another trump lie that will cost people their lives if followed?
    Is trump ignorant (lacking in knowledge or awareness) or just plain stupid (having or showing a great lack of intelligence or common sense)?

    Like

  11. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: bewtie | 03 April 2020 at 08:40 AM
    That doesn’t really coincide very well with your assessment of the efficiency of various masks above. What is the excuse this time for yet another trump lie that will cost people their lives if followed?

    Cool story brah……you should test it!

    Like

  12. bewtie Avatar
    bewtie

    Sorry, unlike yourself and Fearless Leader, I am neither ignorant nor stupid, which apparently is your excuse.

    Like

  13. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: bewtie | 03 April 2020 at 09:02 AM
    Die Wechseljahre waren für Bertie schwierig

    Like

  14. Walt Avatar

    You have your DNR all written up,, right Dougy?
    You still haven’t said just which LIBshit can do a better job than Trump.(I know.. Because none can even come close.)

    Like

  15. Scott O Avatar

    brow-beaten 8:40 “What is the excuse this time for yet another trump lie that will cost people their lives if followed?”
    Please keep tabs on those stats, bowie – let us know the body count of Trump advice-followers vs the ‘free-thinkers’. So far it’s your side that’s losing.
    Maybe it’s time for another Hug-A-Chinaman day!
    You could get Biden to organise it.

    Like

  16. bewrty Avatar
    bewrty

    In the category of “fuck you America” presidential nepotistic stooge Jared Kushner said this about the federal stash of medical supplies “The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile. It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.”
    I guess “our stockpile” refers to the trump cabal’s personal use. Apparently Americans who live in states aren’t supposed to touch Kushner’s stash.

    Like

  17. George Rebane Avatar

    Looks like ‘bertie’ has donned a new sack. He should stop watching the C19 briefings, they’re way too complex for him (Hmm, I wonder why he and his ilk watch them when their own lamestream outlets no longer carry the briefings.) Trump’s advice on face coverings echoed that of Drs Fauci and Brix. In short, put some kind of cloth over your face if you don’t have a N95, it will stop a whole slew of conversation-spawned aerosol droplets when you’re out and about. And this was another reason for the Left to pile on??!
    But Kushner’s report really went over their heads. Most people not burdened with two-digit IQs understood the message that the national stockpile is a back-up and not the first line of supply for the cited items. In our federal system it’s the responsibility of the states to prepare themselves for the various kinds of emergencies that they may encounter given their different locations, topographies, sizes, industries, population densities, urban areas, …; another case of one size does not fit all (which is a basic leftwing tenet of governance). When states can no longer handle their emergency, then they may appeal to other states or the national stockpile for help. All too complex for the liberal mind.

    Like

  18. Walt Avatar

    Guess Dipshit actually believes Trump is the right man for the job. Since Dung can’t name anyone he thinks is better.

    Like

  19. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    I was thinking of our local Troll’s observation about how President Trump, famous epidemiologist and man about town, said that a thick scarf is better.
    And I do thank xir for the quote, it’s on the MSM agenda this morning I noticed. Anything to win 2020.
    The funny thing is that it’s probably kinda true. I don’t doubt that more layers of material = better filtering (why not after all?) and the sad truth is that the average ‘murican probably can’t properly put on the soft version of an N95 mask. Aside from the dummies with their noses still showing, you do really have to check the seal once it’s on, plus there is sort of a protocol for donning. Medium story short, some sort of elastic lower face cover bandana thing might well work better for the hoi polloi.
    A decent emergency government project might be to, quick like a bunny, find some readily available cloth that can be stylish, do a passable job of improving your odds, and a design that fits well. Make a billion. Dump ’em everywhere.

    Like

  20. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    GeorgeR: “But Kushner’s report really went over their heads. Most people not burdened with two-digit IQs understood the message that the national stockpile is a back-up and not the first line of supply for the cited items.”
    Hell, if the states had direct access, Cuomo (or whoever thought of it first) would have cleared them out toot sweet. There ain’t no altruists in the Governor’s office.
    It’s amusing how people think that the feds can magically fix disasters, like there’s some giant FEMA army, probably in huge FEMA blimps, ready to swoop in. Truth is, their main super power is the ability to write checks.

    Like

  21. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: bewrty | 03 April 2020 at 10:47 AM
    I guess “our stockpile” refers to the trump cabal’s personal use. Apparently Americans who live in states aren’t supposed to touch Kushner’s stash.

    Es muss weh tun, so dumm zu sein.

    Like

  22. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: scenes | 03 April 2020 at 12:07 PM
    Truth is, their main super power is the ability to write checks.

    Truth is, their only super power is the ability to write checks. And when they are really on top of the situation….to know when to get out of the way.

    Like

  23. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Think your small town is ready for the China Virus? No matter, it’ll all get swept into the places with political clout.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/03/de-blasio-new-york-coronavirus

    Like

  24. Mary Wanna Avatar

    Obama began a program to develop a high-speed manufacturing process for surgical masks in 2015 to be used in case of a pandemic but of course the incompetent bumbling fool Trump has failed after 5 years to actually get the thing going, no doubt because Obama thought of the idea,
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/federal-government-spent-millions-to-ramp-up-mask-readiness-but-that-isnt-helping-now/2020/04/03/d62dda5c-74fa-11ea-a9bd-9f8b593300d0_story.html

    Like

  25. Walt Avatar

    LIBS can really be dicks.
    https://www.foxnews.com/us/catholic-group-slams-de-blasio-questioning-new-york-coronavirus-field-hospital
    “Hoylman, who is gay, told NBC News that coronavirus is “too delicate to leave it to televangelists, purveyors of the faith, to handle out medical needs.” ”
    “New York City Council Speaker Corey Johnson said he found it “extremely disturbing” that Samaritan’s Purse would be involved in New York City’s relief efforts and said he would be “monitoring the situation closely.” ”
    “I said immediately to my team that we had to find out exactly what was happening,” de Blasio said. “Was there going to be an approach that was truly consistent with the values and the laws in New York City, that everyone would be served and served equally?”

    Like

  26. Walt Avatar

    Leave it to Marty (in drag) to post a paywalled paragraph.
    A good way to hide the rest of the story. Just post what looks good to him.
    Now tell us why it was never implemented.

    Like

  27. Walt Avatar

    The REST of the story.
    Sure Marty, blame Trump.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/federal-government-spent-millions-to-ramp-up-mask-readiness-but-that-isnt-helping-now/
    “In September 2018, the Trump administration received detailed plans for a new machine designed to churn out millions of protective respirator masks at high speed during a pandemic.
    The ONLY part that mentions O’loser.
    “The plans, submitted to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) by the medical manufacturer O&M Halyard, were the culmination of a venture unveiled almost three years earlier by the Obama administration.
    But HHS did not proceed with making the machine.”

    Like

  28. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Mary Wanna | 03 April 2020 at 03:10 PM
    Mary ist gerne am empfangenden Ende des Analsex.

    Like

  29. Mary Wanna Avatar

    That Fish Troll is one strange bird.

    Like

  30. Walt Avatar

    Nice try. I don’t “sign up” for TROLL spam.
    It must be the only kind of emails you get.

    Like

  31. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Mary Wanna | 03 April 2020 at 03:43 PM
    So sagt der Kommentator, der es für Geld in den Arsch nimmt.

    Like

  32. Walt Avatar

    Well Marty(in drag),, seems it your witch Pelosi that’s the one who dropped the ball.. SHE and your side didn’t FUND the manufacturing and authorization.
    Lay off the dope for a while..

    Like

  33. Walt Avatar

    One from one of the local RABID foaming at the mouth LIBS..
    YUP.. It’s the REPUBs. fault that the KUNG FLU has hit Nevada County. (From the Union feed)
    “Linda Kelleher
    It true, due to Swift Communication Editorial Policy, The Union is trying to minimize or conceal the fact, the Truckee -Tahoe Basin, includes all counties that have Trump Republican State Senator Dahle and Congressman LaMalfa, is rapidly becoming a hot spot. Five days after Testing, Eastern Nevada County positives have climbed in the usual pattern of an area that has high rate of contagion. This pattern is also happening in Wahoe County and or Reno. The only good thing is that more populated Western Nevada County is reflecting a lower rate at this time. However as I have tracked this since…See More”

    Like

  34. George Rebane Avatar

    Did Mary Wanna forget to consider why Obama didn’t “get the (mask) thing going” in the almost four years he had left while no one was attempting to impeach him or investigate him forty ways from Sunday?

    Like

  35. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    walt 408pm
    Linda Kelleher nee Campbell, the crazy who phoned in the bomb scare against the TP marchers in a past 4th of July parade, is apparently off her meds a’gin.

    Like

  36. Walt Avatar

    George. Your better off asking the MJ plant for an answer.

    Like

  37. George Rebane Avatar

    Walt 452pm – My 429pm was posed merely for illustrative purposes as part of RR’s ongoing expose of the bankrupt liberal mind.

    Like

  38. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    G @ 437 – with all the public meetings closed down she must be having withdrawals from not being able to scream at someone in close proximity! Right now if she did her usual spit flying purple in the face rants near someone there would likely be violence. LOL
    😉

    Like

  39. Walt Avatar

    I know George, but when dealing with those that are rooting for the virus to take the country down just to smear Trump, a little extra poo flinging is justified.

    Like

  40. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Mossad officer describes covert global battle to obtain ventilators at all costs
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-officer-describes-covert-global-battle-to-obtain-ventilators-at-all-costs/

    Like

  41. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    From the Every Man For Himself Department. A post from a reddit nursing group:
    “My hospital initially treated covid patients with airborne precautions. We have since switched to treating them as droplet precautions.
    Imagine my surprise when I go to the mail room, and all of the “O” level (CEO,CFO,CNO, assistant CNO etc) employees are wearing N95 masks. Not only that, their secretaries are also wearing the n95 masks. These people are not even on the same floor as patients, yet we have enough supplies for them to be protected, and it’s a free for all for the rest of us to even come across a surgical mask.
    I have never been so disappointed in my choice of career.”

    Like

  42. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    I’ve read a couple of articles on this:
    https://www.thebipartisanpress.com/news/cuomo-i-am-signing-an-exec-order-to-seize-ventilators-and-ppe/
    and it occurred to me that if I was, let’s just say, a local hospital administrator who happened to read these hallowed pages to keep an eye on the Local Deplorables and laugh at their Crazy Trump Worship, I’d start thinking about boating accidents and off-site storage units and whatnot. This is purely a theoretical discussion mind you.
    Just sayin’.

    Like

  43. D Avatar

    I took a half-face respirator I use when for painting and such that uses screw on organic vapor cartridges, etc. and removed the innards of an old organic vapor cartridge. Then I used the optional press on dust filters that attach to the cartridges and added a cut out disk from a HEPA vacuum bag. That is supposed to be good for “99.97% (ASME, U.S. DOE)[5][6] of particles whose diameter is equal to 0.3 μm; with the filtration efficiency increasing for particle diameters both less than and greater than 0.3 μm”
    Assuming that not all virus particles are virus only and most are probably attached to water molecules I think it would be a pretty safe mask to wear.
    I can clean the rubber mask body with alcohol, isopropyl 70%, or the gallons of 190 proof alcohol I had stashed for medicinal purposes and replace the HEPA disks easily enough.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HEPA

    Like

  44. George Rebane Avatar

    Thank you Mr D. For our family and friends Jo Ann has sewn heavy cotton masks that are both colorful and provide a modicum of protection, not as good as your rig, but then we’re playing probabilities game here. In any case – et illegitimi non carborundum.

    Like

  45. Bill Tozer Avatar
  46. Walt Avatar

    OHHH how the Left tries to paint the Right as the bad guy, the those pesky facts come out like high value trump cards.
    Blame the Tea Party? LOL!! Nope,, Barry and the boys..
    https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/04/stockpile-shortage-barack-obama-tea-party-claim/
    “An April 3 article from ProPublica claims that “congressional Republicans elected on the Tea Party wave forced the White House to accept sweeping cuts to federal spending.”
    Then conveniently LEAVES OUT
    “It avoids including multiple reports that disprove the claim that congressional Republicans were to blame for the national stockpile shortage.”
    ProPublica’s article does admit that the Obama-Biden administration actually proposed cutting funds to the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) – after claiming that the Tea Party was to blame.
    In fact, the Obama administration also proposed cuts to the SNS in 2011, 2014 and 2015, according to CDC data reviewed by the Daily Caller.
    An April 3 USA Today fact check on whether the Obama administration depleted the federal stockpile of N95 masks also disputes ProPublica’s report.”
    Proggys NEVER own up to their own actions.

    Like

Leave a comment