Rebane's Ruminations
April 2020
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[Dr Hullett is a longtime friend, colleague, and RR reader.  As systems engineers and developers, we have traveled much of the long road together.  He has given permission to publish this personal correspondence.]

Wayne Hullett, PhD

The coronavirus particles are too small to be seen. A doctor on Youtube suggested thinking about coronavirus particles as the glitter worn by some people at festive events. If you have ever gotten any glitter on you, then you know how difficult it is to get off. As George has pointed out, the source of this glitter is the lungs of people who have the disease, most of whom do not yet have symptoms and thus probably do not know they have it. The glitter exits their bodies with normal breathing, talking, coughs and sneezes, and becomes an aerosol in the air. It can float in the air for several minutes before it settles on the floor, on nearby surfaces, or gets inhaled into the lungs of someone nearby. Those who inhale enough of it also become infected, and after an incubation period, they too become a source of the glitter. Anyone who touches a surface that has accumulated some glitter and then touches their mouth, nose or eyes also lets it into their system and can also become infected, thus becoming another source. This is how it spreads exponentially.

Here is a good discussion of the size of virus particles (the glitter) and how well mask materials trap them.

Three common materials and the amount of virus particles they trap are:

Hankerchief    28%
Surgical Mask    80%
N95 Mask    96%

There are two reasons to wear a mask: 1. to keep particles out and 2. to keep particles in. If you wear a mask to keep from catching the virus, you would want an N95 mask, which requires some care and training in fitting. This is what our doctors and nurses wear when treating coronavirus patients. And the patients (I hope) wear surgical masks to protect the medical personnel.

Now, I am guessing (I am an engineer, not a medical doctor), that the body's immune system can deal with a small number of particles, which is why the N95 masks, at 96% effectiveness) seem to work. Also, older people's immune system does not work as well as when they were young, which would explain the increased mortality with age.

The best reason to wear a mask, it seems to me, is to keep the particles IN; to keep from spreading them. A surgical mask (the blue pleated mask you see in hospital TV shows and any street scene of an Asian country) traps 80% of the particles. This, to me, is huge. If only 20% of the particles are getting into the air and on surfaces, then much fewer people will get infected. I am not sure whether it is 1 for 1 (80% fewer infections), but if the body's immune system is able to handle a small amount of particles, then common sense tells me that there will me many fewer infections, thus reducing the impact on the hospital system and buying us more time to develop an effective treatment or vaccine, resulting in fewer deaths.

So, while social distancing is effective, the next best thing we can do is for EVERYONE, especially the younger who may have only a mild case and not even know they are carriers, to wear surgical masks most of the time. Older folks should stay at home, and wear N95 masks when they have to emerge to buy groceries.

I am troubled by the CDC party line that masks do not help. I think they issued that statement because there is a shortage of masks, and by claiming that they do not help they hope to avert a rush to buy and horde masks, thus denying them to the medical professionals who have a greater need. Even the Surgeon General was defending that lie on TV today. I think the correct approach is to not lie, but to tell the truth and to cure the shortage. There are around 330 million people in the country, and the masks are single use, so I am thinking that we need a production capacity of somewhere between 100 million and 500 million surgical masks per day, and maybe 10% to 20% of that of N95 masks. Considering production capability this country developed in WWII, I would think that is readily achievable, for as long as it takes to develop and get approval for a vaccine. They should be on the supermarket shelves next to the bread and milk (and beer), and cost less than a penny each. In the interim, the CDC and Surgeon General could help not by lying but by showing us how to make the most effective homemade masks from commonly available materials. There are already a number of Youtube videos that show how to make masks of various qualities.

So, the key, for most people, is not to wear the mask to keep from getting the virus, but to keep everyone else from getting it from you, because you may not know you are a carrier. Protect your fellow citizens by wearing a mask.

**** [In my reply I included the following.}

Thanks much Wayne, I will definitely post this.  My take on masks may be a bit more broader than yours.  Not only do they reduce the fraction/size of the exhaled aerosols, but also capture a significant fraction (perhaps not as great as the exhaled part) of the infectious aerosol particles during inhalation.  Bottom line, a wide use of masks will help in two ways to reduce the ‘reproduction’ factor/rate among a population of infected pre-symptomatic and vulnerable uninfected people. 

Posted in , , ,

74 responses to “Face Masks – A considered view”

  1. fish Avatar
    fish

    Well I can envision a few extra deaths…..
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246569164325752833
    https://mobile.twitter.com/nickgillespie/status/1246451361648193539
    Like when a certain “Green Libertarian” head goes all asplodie after Trumps second inaguration…..or when Bertie Cross gets to the bottom of her last Valium bottle!

    Like

  2. fish Avatar
    fish

    DON’T GET TOO EXCITED, THIS IS IN VITRO NOT IN HUMANS YET:

    Coronavirus Can be Stopped in 48 Hours Using a Simple Anti-Parasitic Drug: Monash University. But it’s promising because Ivermectin is a common and well-tolerated drug. So stay tuned.

    Plus you absolutely won’t get Heartworm if you are taking it! Consult your veterinarian first however!
    https://in.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-stopped-48-hours-using-103100205.html

    Like

  3. Bertie Avatar
    Bertie

    “the bankrupt liberal mind.” pretty funny… kettle calling the pot black. If the liberal mind is bankrupt (an unusual term but appropriate considering republicans care more about the bankrupt economy than people’s lives as evidenced by their paltry response to the pandemic) then the conservative mind is just plain stupid, unaware, and incapable of discerning between fact and fiction. Take for example the 9 republican governors who have yet to institute any kind of shelter at home directives, the churches in republican governed states that continue to hold live services, or republicans in Wisconsin who blocked the Democratic Governor’s request to postpone elections for no apparent reason other than than the perception that somehow it will help them preserve power because low turnouts favor republicans and republicans are less likely to shelter in place. This goes beyond the pale to just plain dimwitted. Or what about Jared Kushner, who knows nothing at all about anything beyond being a slumlord, who has emerged as the point man for daddy-in-law’s pandemic response team. Stories coming from the healthcare experts on the team suggest Kushner is hindering progress by forcing the team to waste their time discussing his half baked ideas out of fear they will get fired which will stymie progress even more.
    So really George, your continuous and moronic attack of liberals is really just another republican pile of BS smokescreen to deflect attention away from the truth…republicans make hideous decisions based more on a distorted ideology than health and welfare of the American people. Why else would they be so laissez faire about a pandemic? It shows a lack of judgment and to attack people who criticize republican incompetence is a disservice to a country in crisis that needs facts not the ideologically based propaganda and divisiveness you serve up.

    Like

  4. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    Everybody’s Bestest, Bertie sez: “Why else would they be so laissez faire about a pandemic? ”
    Dunno, are they? Explain Sweden to us.

    Like

  5. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Bertie | 05 April 2020 at 10:44 AM
    It shows a lack of judgment and to attack people who criticize republican incompetence is a disservice to a country in crisis that needs facts not the ideologically based propaganda and divisiveness you serve up.

    Hey Bertie Dunning-Krueger checking in to save the country from itself.

    Like

  6. Walt Avatar

    Hummm… Where did Burt pilfer that Proggy screed from?
    He worse the “O” without a teleprompter when it comes to
    posting. (never can use his own thought pattern)

    Like

  7. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    fish: “Hey Bertie Dunning-Krueger checking in to save the country from itself.”
    Oh well, it’s just part of the semi-organized effort to blame Trump and Deplorables for killing grammaw on the ventilator. It’s of slight intellectual honesty, but hey, any old fib in a storm.
    Next thing you know, there’ll be Red v. Blue scoreboards for deaths, first date of quarantine, slight missteps by R v. B governors. A giant World Wrestling Federation minus the charm. (BTW, how come so many sick people in Blue states? Don’t they know how to wash their hands? /s).
    A mini-story in all this that tells you all you need to know about the Blue Mob is the war against hydroxychloroquine. A half dozen studies say it might really help, one study that I’ve run into that says it doesn’t do much, Trump mentions it as a possible aid. That last fact is enough to bring out the troops searching the interwebz for bad news on the substance with a fair amount of hope that it fails. I guess it’s no different than wishing for a recession.

    Like

  8. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    “Take for example the 9 republican governors who have yet to institute any kind of shelter at home directives, ”
    I hate to respond to a crazy person, but that actually makes sense.
    You can only shut down the economy for so long and it’s best to wait until the virus actually shows up. There’ll be an optimal time to turn on a quarantine and then to turn it off, killing the disease without killing the patient is a tricky thing in both oncology and quarantines.
    Why on Earth would Wyoming have the same stay at home rules and timing as NYC?

    Like

  9. George Rebane Avatar

    re Bertie 1044am – Perfect, another vituperative screed that offers nothing other than baseless attacks on the progressives’ ideological opposites. No Democrat has yet to put forth a competing national response policy (let alone a demonstrably better one) to that now carried out by the current administration. Some on the Left are beginning to get a glimmer of this huge political deficit, and rumors are emerging that Bumblebrain is currently ensconced with advisers trying to cobble together an alternative C19 response policy that he can take on the campaign trail if and when the DNC will allow him. In the interval Cuomo is making political hay on many fronts. Stand by and rig for ram Joe.

    Like

  10. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    “an alternative C19 response policy that he can take on the campaign trail ”
    Well, that should be easy enough. Simply use 100% hindsight, meander on about ‘how it should have been done’ while sniffing at any available female hair, talk about the future in easily deniable generalities.
    Minus the female hair part, just like an Obama speech read off the teleprompter written by 50 staff members.

    Like

  11. George Rebane Avatar

    scenes 1154am – Don’t think coming out with yet one more ‘coulda, woulda, shoulda’ screed will cut the mustard with the electorate. That’s all the socialists cum communists have been able do so far (eg see 1044am), so Bumblebrain’s contribution will look like more of the same ol’ same ol’.

    Like

  12. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Face masks are highly recommended. Of all the things one can do, I believe the distancing is the best method. Seems hard to catch anything besides the common cold if you don’t leave the property.
    Ahead of the curve. CDC recommended having a spray bottle of disinfectant in the car for mobile use and one at home for wiping down those counters as millions of women folk already do.
    The CDC homemade recipe for disinfectant is a gallon of water and 1/4 cup of bleach….exactly what I splash on my arms, hands, neck, and top of ears before tearing out poison oak, lol Good for multiple uses. My own spray bottles of disinfectant consist of liquid anti-bacterial soap watered down with a bunch of isopropyl alcohol, put into two old spritzers. Better than buying fancy dispensers of the fu-fu juice, stronger, and cheaper.
    Ok, all off topic. Topic to come

    Like

  13. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: scenes | 05 April 2020 at 11:40 AM
    I hate to respond to a crazy person, but that actually makes sense.

    Hey…it’s your call but I think you should have gone with your first instinct!
    I understand the impulse to respond though….she’s so delightfully crazy one would expect her to be up on someones roof wearing a down coat and thong/Speedo. Anything you do or say leads to a spittle flecked response worthy of a Manson or Unibomber.
    Seriously….you guys have chemicals in the water up there….it seems that you have a ton more crazy than one would expect under more normal conditions?

    Like

  14. Walt Avatar

    Like I said. The LIBS are rooting for the virus.

    Like

  15. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Half the cases are in the Democratic/Democratic-Socialist strongholds of New York State and City.
    Why? Because of knee-jerk reactionary action against Trump’s early actions… and anger that the Impeachment debacle ended as expected, rather than their dreamed endings.
    Everyone, in every state, can choose for themselves to shelter in place even if it isn’t backed up in the end by government employees with guns.

    Like

  16. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Dr. Rebane, scholars, and fellow scumbags:
    re: woulda, coulda, shoulda until you shoulda all over yourselves.
    When you wake up (come to) and find yourself neck deep in quicksand and sinking, the first thing you ask yourself is “How do I get out of here?”, not “How did I get into here?” There will be plenty of time to figure out how you got yourself into the fine mess after you get out of the hole.
    Nothing can get back to “normal” or the new normal until the Chinese Virus is stamped down. Then we can reopen segments of society/the economy and get America back to work. First things first. Both sides appear to not grasp the seriousness of The Plague.
    The Blame Game: Good simple read.
    ‘So many to blame for coronavirus crisis, so don’t bother: Goodwin’
    https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-many-to-blame-for-coronavirus-crisis-so-dont-bother-goodwin/

    Like

  17. Walt Avatar

    Why don’t we have enough face masks? Because “O” dropped the ball.
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/05/usa-today-true-no-indication-obama-admin-replenished-mask-supply/
    “The Obama administration significantly depleted the federal stockpile of N95 respirator masks to deal with the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009 and never rebuilt the stockpile despite calls to do so, according to reports.”
    In simple words, even Burt can (maybe) comprehend.

    Like

  18. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    “Here’s the mantra for the day: Wear a mask. Get back to work!”
    ‘I’m Mad as Hell, and I’m Not Going to Take This Anymore’
    https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2020/04/05/im-mad-as-hell-and-im-not-going-to-take-this-anymore-n2566345

    Like

  19. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    fish: “Hey…it’s your call but I think you should have gone with your first instinct!”
    I meant that the differing Governor’s responses made sense. I should have been more clear. This English language stuff, it’s inexact.
    gregory: “Why? Because of knee-jerk reactionary action against Trump’s early actions”
    Interesting idea, it honestly hadn’t occurred to me. WE HATE TRUMP FOR TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS, SO LET’S HAVE A BIG OL’ CHINESE NEW YEARS PARTY & MARDI GRAS, THAT’LL SHOW HIM.
    Dunno how you extract that from over-dense populations, big Chinese populations, mass transit, and (in the case of New Orleans) high BMI. Somebody with a giant data set is thinking about this, but will only publish if it’s politically correct. The city dweller version of JIT delivery (go to the store or the restaurant every day) isn’t looking real swift right now though.
    billt: ” the first thing you ask yourself is “How do I get out of here?”,”
    Not if you’re trying to win an election at any cost. The Mob’s gonna Mob.
    walt: “The Obama administration significantly depleted the federal stockpile of N95 respirator masks”
    Oh well. A combination of hindsight and ponderous government. Truth is, problems that can happen nationally should probably be dealt with locally. Fedgov caches only work when an issue is regional or smaller. You not only get squabbling over a diminishing store, but you get the problem of transportation.

    Like

  20. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    toes 147pm
    close enough for local gov’t work.

    Like

  21. George Rebane Avatar

    re 147pm – It’s true even down to the very nits – When there’s a problem, don’t bet against government as being its source.

    Like

  22. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    ah, now there you go. (warning: bang on the translate button)
    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/hemliga-finska-beredskapslager-oppnas

    Like

  23. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Masks. Can we wear gloves and masks into the banks now?
    MASKS FOR THEE, NOT FOR ME
    “Heh. Let’s not be ridiculous. Criticizing Trump is all in a day’s work, but wearing an unstylish face mask? Especially when one has already decamped for the countryside? That’s something else”
    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/masks-for-thee-not-for-me.php
    On the Dear Diary side of the ledger, I saw a couple of ladies talking a walk near Western Gateway today, one who was wearing this big black homemade looking face mask, cut into the shape of a black heart. Couldn’t tell if it was middle aged Joan Jett because the size of the mask,
    covering the face, but the Queen of Hearts she most certainly was not. Creepy looking thang.
    Maybe Dr. Rebane could grace us with pics of JoAnne’s handiwork. Bet Dr Rebane is walking around in a pink poodle mask. lol.

    Like

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