George Rebane
Google’s AI does breast cancer diagnoses. “Google’s health research unit said it has developed an artificial-intelligence system that can match or outperform radiologists at detecting breast cancer, according to new research. But doctors still beat the machines in some cases. … The AI system outperformed the average radiologist in determining whether the women would develop breast cancer.”, as reported in the 2jan20 WSJ (here). The AI’s performance stats are impressive, and then comes the insane part. Due to bureaucratic and regulatory concerns which essentially make ‘perfect’ be the enemy of the ‘good’, the AI “isn’t yet ready for clinical use”. The correct answer is that it is more than ready for clinical use, because there is no reasonable downside to its use in tandem with practicing radiologists. Since the algo already outperforms humans, it can be introduced in phases with various practitioners all over the country while research continues toward the elusive perfect. Here is another problem for which we should always look to government as being its probable first cause, and government’s stand-down as being the most obvious first approach to a solution.
Does “Japanification” loom in America’s future? The answer may well be YES. In addition to some bad fiscal and monetary policies over the last 30 years, it’s Japan’s aging demographics that have put a stifling curse on its economy. We have some disturbing similarities – “Developed economies that are maturing that have demographic headwinds are going to face many of the same things Japan has been facing over decades. … Like Japan, the U.S. has an aging population and a concentration of industry among a small number of giant businesses. In 2019, U.S. interest rates fell sharply, sparking serious discussion in markets, perhaps for the first time, of whether long-term rates could fall to zero or even turn negative. That already has happened in Japan and in much of Europe.” (more here) Yes, Europe with its heavily socialistic governments have even more concentration of their industries (c.f. corporatism) and are already suffering the early stages of Japanification. Progressive governments’ hip-level response to such economic headwinds is to turn the screws on for more central planning and control with disastrous results as have occurred recently in Chile (see below). Our Democratic leftists have that and more in store for us should they increase their control of the levers of power.
Chile – Latin America’s ‘Oasis’ Descends Into Chaos. So we witness from recent, but lamestream muted, news that is detailed by Axel Kaiser, head of a Chilean think tank, in the 2dec20 WSJ and confirmed by Chile’s Central Bank. Chile achieved South America’s posterchild status over the years by applying liberal policies of free market capitalism, until its population fell again under the sway of socialist politicians and started demanding ever ‘more’ through their government. In a “mere 40 days” the country has exploded from initial demonstrations against a fare increase in public transportation to rioting for wholesale grievances. During these short weeks of “massive demonstrations and wanton violence” the country has suffered “ more than $2 billion in losses and damages, more than 1,200 looted retail stores, an estimated 300,000 new unemployed, 25 dead, more than 2,000 injured police officers, and a political and economic crisis with no end in sight.” (more here) This was preceded by socialist president Michelle Bachelet’s policies (2014-18) where she “increased corporate taxes by 30%; signed a law banning the replacement of workers on strike, thereby dramatically increasing the costs of labor; increased public spending at three times the economic growth rate; and unleashed armies of regulatory bureaucrats on the private sector.” All this is one more demonstration of the art of the possible when collectivists gain control of a liberal democracy with a wealth generating economy. And this year in America we again stand at the crossroads.
[3jan20 update]. Trump took out Iran’s top general who had flown to Iraq to plan/direct more killings of Americans and Iraqis. To nail him on his way from the airport into Baghdad – a 15 minute trip – required rapid decision making and quick reaction by deployed forces. Thanks to our CIC, the operation was a success, killing both Gen Qassem Soleimani and a top Iraqi terrorist leader in cahoots with the Iranians. Under Soleimani the Iranians have killed countless American troops, perpetrated many incidents in violation of international laws, attempted to disrupt Europe’s energy supply, and killed other innocents worldwide. He was sanctioned not to leave Iran, especially not travel to Iraq, a dubious ally attempting to stabilize while fighting Iran-sponsored terrorists, and still nominally under American military control. (We have to remember Iraq was also a rogue country that invaded its neighbors and threatened world commerce. They are now attempting to recover, but not working very hard at it, even though some Iraqis are dancing in the streets to celebrate the assassination.) So, for that gift to world civilization President Trump is now being vilified, as expected, by our Democrats who dun him for not first getting their permission. According to lights shared by tens of millions of Americans including me, our president did the right thing at the right time. Telling people that this act will now somehow throw the otherwise peaceful Middle East into a war is a fraud that again takes advantage of our light thinkers.
Trump’s Iran strategy? The TDS crowd accuses the president of acting with spontaneous tactics that support no overarching strategy – to them the killing of Iran’s Soleimani is just the most recent example of that. To many of us who have studied the history and politics of the middle east, Trump’s strategy for that quarter of the world is obvious, even though it is not always consistently supported by tactics – but then what strategy with that many moving parts has ever been consistently pursued by past governments? We know that under the mullahs Iran wants to become the regional hegemon, a goal that also motivates Turkey’s foreign policy. Iran cannot achieve that without becoming a nuclear power, and will do whatever is necessary to enter into the world’s expanding nuclear club. It is beyond naïve to think that all these so-called preventative agreements will actually stop Iran’s development of a deliverable nuclear bomb and the missile technology to deliver it. Iran is already in close cahoots with two major nuclear powers – Russia and China – and is a weapons technology trading partner with the Ugly Fat Kid. Under Iran’s religious fanatics (who are also end-timers), that nation will do nothing but keep the Iranian people in a tyrannical misery, and continue its bid to militarily dominate the middle east. Only a fundamental change in its governance will transform Iran into a normative country with whom the world can have a profitable and peaceful relationship. In a very complex world, our strategy is to prudently promote such a change. Killing their top leadership while doing out-country dirty work is prudent, while sending them planeloads of palleted cash is demonstrably not.
[4jan20 update] RL Crabb nails it on California’s new AB5 in his new cartoon filched from the pages of the 4jan20 Union (here).
The so-called ‘gig economy’ has been a mainstay of our entrepreneurship, economic health, and the very welcome mat to developing new products, technologies, and services along with starting countless new businesses. Being able to directly sell one’s talents and services to a willing customer who can hire you with minimal encumbrances for an indefinite length of time on mutually agreed upon terms is a fundamental trait of free enterprise and markets, and it is the widest lane on the road to the American dream. When we came to America, my father traveled on it and so did I. Now California, in one of its most butt stupid (vs ignorant) moves ever, has passed AB5 into law, which essentially does away with the ability to sell your services to any and all willing customers on a consulting and temporary basis – you now have to be hired as an employee with all the rites, rights, regulations, and costs that go along with that in our state’s woke socialist society. In 2019 California outdid itself adopting a slate of new public policies which confirmed that Sacramento is run by certifiable idiots. (more here)
Speaking of woke progressives, Peggy Noonan in the 4jan20 WSJ opens the new year with a very thoughtful column (here) from which the following is excerpted.
“The past decade saw the rise of the woke progressives who dictate what words can be said and ideas held, thus poisoning and paralyzing American humor, drama, entertainment, culture and journalism. In the coming 10 years someone will effectively stand up to them. They are the most hated people in America, and their entire program is accusation: you are racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic; you are a bigot, a villain, a white male, a patriarchal misogynist, your day is over. They never have a second move. Bow to them, as most do, and they’ll accuse you even more of newly imagined sins. They claim to be vulnerable victims, and moral. Actually they’re not. They’re mean and seek to kill, and like all bullies are cowards. … Everyone with an honest mind hates them. Someone will finally move effectively against them. Who? How? That will be a story of the ’20s, and a good one.”
Mass migrations in America. So here’s the drill according to the US Census Bureau for 2019 (more similar results are still incoming). Net in (+) and out (-) migrations for the following states are –
CA -203,000 FL +134,000
NY -181,000 TX +126,000
IL -105,000 AZ + 91,000
NJ – 49,000 NC + 67,000
MA – 30,000 SC + 53,000
Now we have a simple question the answer to which progressives are guaranteed miss – actually, they don’t even acknowledge the above data. These were migrations overwhelmingly of middle-class workers seeking lower costs of living and a better life for their families – the gimmes went the other way. So, can you tell which states had higher taxes, more regulations, higher crime and indigent rates, and generally were drifting toward shithole status, and which states had exactly the opposite attributes? For extra credit, can you tell which states are the Blue states, and which are Red? As confirmed in these pages, our double-blindered leftwingers’ denials don’t speak well for their intellectual acumen, but their denials completely explain their love of the disastrous public policies that cause such mass migrations.
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