Rebane's Ruminations
July 2018
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George Rebane

In my 10jul18 ‘Trump’s Trade War’ I opened with the puzzlement that most of his supporters have had lately about the tariffs that he has initiated – “Unless President Trump has something up his sleeve on the outcome of the current tariff tussle and ensuing trade war, I think our fearless leader is making a big mistake in imposing tariffs – and doubly so for “national security” purposes.”  Well, things have taken a turn for the better, and it looks like there really was method to the President’s apparent madness.

Today’s meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at the White House resulted in a surprising and fortuitous announcement in the Rose Garden.  It appears that the president has opened the door to an expanded free trade with the EU, and taken some serious steps toward his hopeful ‘zero tariffs’ goal among trading nations.  People not suffering from TDS immediately realize that no matter if we ever achieve the zero level – I’m betting we won’t – it doesn’t matter.  We will wind up in a much better place than we were before Trump started throwing around his tariffs.  (BTW, here is a piece that gives a little history on zero tariffs recommended way back in 1988.)

The extra benefits from these announcements of new trade agreements will now impact our NAFTA partners, renegotiating with the TPP members, and, of course, a new and better trade agreement with China in which they don’t steal us blind in the intellectual property department.  You can bet the ranch that everyone is watching how today’s agreements will set the stage for follow-on success.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross explained the genesis of today’s unfair and asymmetrical tariff situation that has led us to this important juncture.  He pointed out that these asymmetries were put in place right after WW2 when America was working as the world’s good guy in rebuilding destroyed and then emerging economies to create the post-war prosperity that we have all witnessed (well, most of us at least.  Team Obama/Schumer/Pelosi/Sanders/Warren/Waters/Castro/… and our local leftwing lackies will admit to none of it).  We were willing to help other countries by allowing them to charge much higher tariffs on our products than we charged for importing their products, which benefited their agriculture and industries.

But those days are over, and those rules are no longer needed because the Europeans and Asians and Latin Americans are no longer destitute.  The only ones that still screw over their populations are the socialists and communists who have spread wholesale misery within their borders of the kind that the sought-after policies of Team Schumer/Pelosi/Sanders/Warren/Waters/Castro/… will provide Americans if ever we become stupid enough to let this crowd get their hands on our economy and common weal.

And now we understand why President Trump had to use that ridiculous ‘national defense’ ploy to announce his tariffs – that was the only legal lever that he had to get things moving quickly without getting into a congressional quagmire of hearings, etc before the midterm election.  He played poker with a poker face, and our allies correctly painted him serious and came to the table.  They too realized that continuing this ridiculous trade game three generations after the end of the war was a hell of way to run a railroad.  Much more to be done.  More accomplishments to take to the bank.  But from my perch, things are looking up.

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27 responses to “Trump’s Trade Wars Triumphant?”

  1. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    While there is a way to go the EU’s trade collusion will be followed by Japan and the Chi Coms will be on the outside looking in! Sweet!
    If second-quarter GDP growth tops 5.2% — not at all impossible, given the data that’ve come in — it would be the strongest number since the third quarter of 2003.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-gdp-hot-takes-2018-07-25
    😉

    Like

  2. Ricky McVeigh Avatar
    Ricky McVeigh

    George, from my freshwater perch the data are still out in the drywall business. My offshore competitors are killing me. I will need a relief package until this ship rights itself.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K37G2j0K8BA

    Like

  3. "M" Avatar
    “M”

    …there is only a 100-200 basis point difference between US and EU tariffs…So, in contrast to trumpski usual bluster, antics and drama there is no trade imbalance. More lies from trumpski!!!
    ,,,the EU will buy natural gas from the US whenever LNG ports are up and running – don’t hold your breath,,,
    ,,,we will still see BMWs and Mercedes on the streets of Manhattan even though trumpski hates seeing them,,,
    ,,,the EU will buy soybeans if and when the price is right,,,

    Like

  4. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    re: “M”7:54AM
    English MF, Do You Speak It?
    James Woods has some advice for you.
    https://i.redd.it/zdyjps5s1ac11.png

    Like

  5. fish Avatar
    fish

    Part of dugskis problem….

    ”I am beset with a brain that comes up with outside-the-box observations, and ideas about improving things, and, if I have a “mission” in life, it is to share these, which typically show up after a good night’s sleep.”

    Hedley Lamar like delusions of grandeur!
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=37v-6Zs5T10

    Like

  6. "M" Avatar
    “M”

    ,,,scenes,,,,what are you crying about now??? Your air conditioner broke down???
    I found a photo of a typical trumpski supporter,,,
    https://i1.wp.com/www.threearts.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Face-slimmer-1.jpg?resize=585%2C390

    Like

  7. George Rebane Avatar

    RickyM 1233am – Ricky, I think we’d all be interested to read how offshore competitors are “killing” your drywall hanging business.

    Like

  8. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: “M” | 26 July 2018 at 09:08 AM
    Yep…..dugskis, “I haven’t had a blowjob in 30 years” fantasy’s intruding on daily life! At your age I’m not sure you have the requisite flexibility to make the device work though.
    Pics or it didn’t happen!

    Like

  9. George Rebane Avatar

    M and fish – I see you guys have run out of brains, and have now decided to reveal your hidden talents. Cut that shit out, or we’re going to miss you around here.

    Like

  10. "M" Avatar
    “M”

    ,,,thanks George,,,actually it is scenes and fish that are obsessing about anything below the belt,,,it gets so predictable after a while,,,
    ,,,my first thoughts on this thread were made in all seriousness,,,
    ,,,but when the going gets tough, the usual suspects go low,,,

    Like

  11. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: George Rebane | 26 July 2018 at 09:42 AM
    Just responded to items introduced into evidence by, as aptly described by Gregory a feces flinging Scotsman!

    Like

  12. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    The other end of the trade spectrum are the crumbling mullahs –
    The mullahs are now deeply perplexed. A state of total confusion has persisted ever since United States withdrew from the nuclear deal. Attempts to bully the EU into filling the financial void created by renewed U.S. sanctions are doomed to fail, as European companies realize that they would lose $1,000 in American business for every $1 dollar they earn in contracts with the Iranian regime.
    Horrified at the thought of conceding to U.S. demands, the theocratic regime has resorted to issuing threats, in the hope that their bellicose rhetoric will deflect attention from their collapsing economy and mass protests that have rocked the country for more than seven months. With their finances drained by venal corruption and by the cost of funding proxy wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq, the mullahs know that their medieval theocracy is facing its final curtain. Their public beating and humiliation in Syria by the Israelis may prove to be the last straw.
    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/Voices/2018/07/25/America-steps-on-the-Iranian-lions-tail/8891532519639/
    😉

    Like

  13. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Fair trade is better
    Through this latest deal, Trump has deftly set pieces in place and strengthened his hand, effectively ratcheting up pressure on China to come to the negotiation table. There are also positive signs coming out of Mexico as the newly elected president’s chief trade negotiator, Jesus Seade, indicated on Tuesday that Mexico is open to a new deal: “What I see … to be a very feasible expectation is that we’ll be concluding negotiation in the next two months if possible, or in the next few months a bit further down the road.” He added, “President Trump has a very personal style. He likes to appear chaotic. But the last thing he is is chaotic. I think he’s a very intelligent man.”
    Clearly, Trump’s tariff gamble is paying off, and despite wide criticism from both sides of the political aisle, he has steadily maintained the course and is starting to get the results he has been after the whole time — a fair and level playing field for American workers and businesses. Trump’s moves to achieve fair and free trade are actually reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s strategy to force the Soviet Union to the negotiation table via a nuclear arms race — seemingly counterintuitive but effective.
    https://patriotpost.us/articles/57354-trump-is-getting-desired-results-from-tariffs
    No surprise here. Trump on trade has not changed much (if at all) since the days everyone was saying Japan was going to overtake us as the world’s largest economic power. And the icecaps would be gone by 2013. War of 1812? No mystery here.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI
    Yep, that be Trump

    Like

  14. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    How the world is viewing it –
    Writing in the Financial Times, Leonard reports that on a recent trip to China many of those he spoke to said “that Mr Trump is the US first president for more than 40 years to bash China on three fronts simultaneously: trade, military and ideology.”
    The Chinese see Trump as rejecting the idea that U.S. leaders should be managing the relative decline of the U.S.
    They think Mr Trump feels he is presiding over the relative decline of his great nation. It is not that the current order does not benefit the US. The problem is that it benefits others more in relative terms. To make things worse the US is investing billions of dollars and a fair amount of blood in supporting the very alliances and international institutions that are constraining America and facilitating China’s rise.
    In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington. Once the order is destroyed, the Chinese elite believes, Mr Trump will move to stage two: renegotiating America’s relationship with other powers. Because the US is still the most powerful country in the world, it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense of the strong.
    Leonard goes on to say that while China is taking a tough stance in its conflict with the U.S. now, “many Chinese” think that their leaders should rethink the strategy. Instead of confronting the U.S. and seeking to build an anti-U.S. coalition, China should “prepare the ground for a new grand bargain with the US based on Chinese retrenchment.”
    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/07/26/report-chinese-are-awed-by-trumps-skill-as-a-strategist-and-tactician/
    😉

    Like

  15. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: “M” | 26 July 2018 at 09:59 AM
    ,,,my first thoughts on this thread were made in all seriousness,,-

    Then we should rest easy……progressives are doomed!

    Like

  16. scenes Avatar
    scenes

    re: DonB@12:45PM
    No doubt they are nonplussed by an American head of state who thinks in terms of what actually benefits the USA. ¡Qué Milagro!
    The fact that he has to drag half the country kicking and screaming is unfortunate, but there you have it.
    The problem with depending on a genius to get shit done is that they aren’t infallible and won’t always be there. We need a system that promotes patriots, not a system that hopes that a patriot stops by for a while.

    Like

  17. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Any predictions for the GDP number tomorrow? A range perhaps. What does that eminent economist the po’ ol’ fakenewsman project?
    😉

    Like

  18. "M" Avatar
    “M”

    ,,,2nd QTR GDP 3-4%

    Like

  19. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Ya don’t say –
    ASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. administration got more out of a trade deal with the European Union than it had expected and the two will work together to deal with China’s market abuses
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trade-deal-eu-trade-greater-213129232.html
    😉

    Like

  20. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Hell ya! Show then who the big dog is, cut a deal and then make it a big pack to hunt the weak one, China!!
    Virtually all advanced nations have the same complaints about China: It forces foreign firms to turn over key technology as a condition of doing business in the country. It copies or steals trade secrets belonging to foreign firms. And it subsidizes giant companies that produce steel, aluminum and other commodities, allowing them to undercut foreign rivals on price, gobble up market share and drive foreign competition out of business.
    Trump has tried to address those problems, mostly by slapping tariffs on Chinese imports and insisting that China reduce its trade surplus with the United States. Most trade experts say that won’t work. But joining with allies and pressuring China together could work, they say. And the place to start is at the World Trade Organization
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-europe-teaming-china-trade-215121314.html
    😉

    Like

  21. George Rebane Avatar

    DonB 642pm – Thank you Mr Bessee, that was a major point of my post about Trump’s breaking the logjam with the only tool he had.

    Like

  22. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    God Bless the whole Trump team for this, we all know people who care, this matters.
    https://www.breitbart.com/news/aircraft-carrying-remains-of-us-korean-war-dead-departs-n-korea-wh/
    Now is a time to take a knee for their relived decedents and them getting the final rights they earned. God Bless them one and all.

    Like

  23. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Mercury in retrograde @ 755?

    Like

  24. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    This is what can happen when you have groupthink and the thought police, a good lesson for us –
    But the U.S. was not convinced, imposing 25 percent duties on U.S. $34 billion of Chinese products from July 6 — prompting Beijing to do the same. Washington now plans to apply 10 percent tariffs on another U.S. $200 billion of Chinese goods, and Trump has said he is ready to put duties on every import from China.
    “They [the Chinese leadership and researchers] didn’t realise how bad the sentiment here is getting. They thought Trump was just bluffing and they still think like that,” according to a former U.S. policy adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity.
    “They say this is about the midterm elections and things will change after that. They are totally wrong and they totally misread the situation. I feel partly this is because they have become more insulated, and partly because nobody dares to tell Beijing that they are wrong.”
    VICTIM OF ITS OWN POLICY?
    Sources and observers told the South China Morning Post that the problem is policies introduced by Beijing — driven by a need to consolidate the party’s power — that have discouraged policy advisers from having in-depth discussions with their U.S. counterparts that would help them to understand the latest thinking in Washington, or from speaking their minds.
    At the same time, Beijing is tightening ideological control in all aspects of life, including on university campuses, and demanding that the party line be strictly adhered to. Any unauthorized discussion of government policies can result in a reprimand for “improper discussion of a party directive”.
    “It’s more difficult to know what they are thinking as they are just repeating the government and party rhetoric,” the former official said. “This will lead to a higher risk of wrong decisions, even fatal mistakes.”
    An overreliance on traditional back-door channels is compounding the situation. According to the former U.S. policy adviser, Beijing relies too much on the Wall Street and political elite, including Henry Paulson and Henry Kissinger, to understand US politics — people who do not have any influence over Trump.
    “Trump doesn’t listen to them or talk to them. I think the Chinese leadership underestimated the situation,” the former adviser said.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/26/did-china-think-donald-trump-was-bluffing-on-trade-how-beijing-got-it-wrong-713053
    😉

    Like

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