Rebane's Ruminations
December 2017
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George Rebane

Shortest day of the year (in the northern hemisphere) – winter solstice, a time for all kinds of alternative belief systems to hold ceremonies honoring their deities, ancestors, dark spirits, …, and, of course, Gaia.  Here in Nevada County (lat 39.13 degrees) the sun will climb to only 27.37 degrees above the southern horizon because today the earth’s axis is tilted its full 23.5 degrees away from the sun.  (For you artillerymen who remember your hand calibrations, that’s about a stack of three fist widths at your arm’s length.)  The earth’s axis actually wobbles between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees over about a 40,000 year cycle.  That also contributes to climate change, the migration of the magnetic poles, and the wandering of Polaris, the pole star approximately at the North Pole’s zenith.

The Seattle train wreck.  How in hell does a train engineer drive his train into a 30mph curve at 80 mph??!  The engineering solutions to prevent or avoid these recurring dumbass disasters are too many to count.  But to answer the question, one need only begin with the most obvious and telling factor – this was a government-run (Amtrak) train.  And when we combine Friar Occam’s dictum for the simplest explanation with Rebane Doctrine’s ‘When something goes wrong, assume the government is the culprit until proven innocent.’, then these explain everything from the qualification of Amtrak’s train operators to the deficits of its various management levels who design and oversee planning and operations.  Bottom line – it’s no way to run a railroad.

Red China uses latest technology to keep tabs on its citizens.  George Orwell had nothing on what the Chinese communists are doing to nip opposition and dissent in the bud.  The newest citizen monitoring and tracking systems are being tested in Xinjiang province populated by the mostly Muslim Uighurs.  Using everything from AI-driven automated facial recognition, retinal scans, directional mike arrays, smartphone monitoring/tracking, combined with uncounted police checkpoints where IDs are required to pass from one part of town or jurisdiction to another, the authoritarian government is quickly perfecting the ‘compleat surveillance state’. (more here and here)  Much of the technology is already installed and in use in other major Chinese urban areas, and you can bet the ranch that our security apparatchiks are not far behind.  Oh, how the security vs freedom see-saw tilts.  But in the end, when the usual bad guys are eliminated, then from whose comprehensive embrace do we need to feel secure?  Not to worry, that can never happen in Amerika.

[22dec17 update] – A refreshing Trumpian Tornado has blown into our foreign policy dealings.  Our president told the world that under his administration the US was also going to start acting in its own best interests, just like the rest of the world’s nations are doing.  And those who aren’t doing that, President Trump advised them to start doing it.  This flies in tight formation with Rebane Doctrine’s foreign policy advisories in these pages.  To wit, ‘On the world stage the United States will unabashedly act in all matters to promote its own best interests.  We have made and continue to make those interests known to all.  We invite other countries to work with us in maximizing our mutually shared interests, and will support those with whom we are successful in doing that.  We will not support countries that oppose our interests, instead, we will actively counter such opposition wherever and whenever it arises.’  (For more on diplomacy, I encourage reading Hillsdale College President Dr Larry Arnn's 'Three Lessons of Statesmanship' wherein he goes over the serious challenges faced by Churchill both at the beginning and ending of WW2.)

UN ambassador Nikki Haley gave strong voice to that policy as she responded to the resolution condemning the US for announcing its embassy’s move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.  Taking no prisoners, the lady told the assembled, “The United States will remember this day in which it was singled out for attack in the General Assembly for the very act of exercising our right as a sovereign nation, … We will remember it when we are called upon to once again make the world’s largest contribution to the United Nations.”  Then she got up and walked out of what Prime Minister Netanyahu called “the theater of the absurd.”

More still moving out of Kalifornia, than moving in, according to the AP.  This has been widely known for some time now by just about everyone save the local leftwing intelligentsia, who are merely doing their duty to discombobulate the lightly read and pre-educated.  The state that already houses more than one third of the nation’s welfare recipients within 12% of its population (more here) just added 300K more people last year, overwhelmingly contributed by our more fecund neighbors.  “More people moved out of California than in from other US states, but foreign immigration made up the difference.  Total net migration added 80K people.”  Anyone want to bet whether the state’s share of welfare recipients went up or down?

[23dec17 update]  California wildfires are the latest human-augmented natural calamity that needs to be used for political purposes by the state’s command and control team led by our governor.  As argued in the WSJ (‘California’s Political Fires’), the decision comes down to spending billions on the bullet train, or properly managing the state’s forests, overgrown with underbrush and littered with millions of beetle-killed dead trees.  The state has become expert in the bait-and-switch tax/fee schemes in which it promises to dedicate these impounded funds for fire safety and management, and instead uses the monies to “backfill the budget” and spend on “high-speed rail, public housing and transit and electric-car subsidies.”  Of course, the Left’s constituencies have been well prepared for such arguments and sleights of hand, having neither the critical thinking skills nor knowledge base to conceive of anything beyond what they are told by California’s ensconced Democrats.

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59 responses to “Scattershots – 21dec17 (updated 23dec17)”

  1. Paul Emery Avatar

    You don’t you apply the same standards to government run military accidents such as the problems with Navy ships plowing into each other recently. Nice try but no banana on blaming this on government involvement.

    Like

  2. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    I don’t recall our Navy ships plowing into each other.

    Like

  3. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Here’s a list of naval accidents ……
    Why aren’t these held in the same focus as the Amtrack disaster that Rebane assigns to the engineer being a public employee.

    Like

  4. Scenes from the Apocalypse Avatar
    Scenes from the Apocalypse

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-blocking-property-persons-involved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/
    There is probably more than meets the eye here, who is the real target? Soros? Clinton Foundation?

    Like

  5. Russ Avatar

    Paul,
    The navy ships ran into commercial vessels, not into each other. The accident has been attributed to the lack of seamanship; the Navy was so busy with diversity training, sexual awareness seminars and other non-military activities seamanship got ignored. Even though these courses were directed by the Obama administration, it was the senior naval officers who were removed from command and their careers damaged beyond repair. They forgot what the Navy mission was.
    Let’s see how many AMTRAK Administrators will be removed as a result of this accident. Maybe the engineer had also spent to may hours on diversity and sexual orientation training and not enough on how to operate a locomotive.

    Like

  6. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Interesting question
    when I played music on trains that were privately operated they used Amtrak equipment but Union Pacific engineers. Wonder if the engineers were even Amtrack employees, Don’t really know..

    Like

  7. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Russ
    You’re always trying to blame Obama for everything. What a laugh

    Like

  8. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Russ that is what I thought too. The ships ran into private ones not other Navy ships as Paul Emery erroneously reported. More fake news eh? Anyway, my guess is the Captain was in his cabin trying to make sense of the new LGBTIISSTJ rules and forgot he was the man in charge of the ship.

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  9. Scenes from the Apocalypse Avatar
    Scenes from the Apocalypse

    re: TJ@2:31PM
    Back in August. Warship vs. Merchant ship last August. The sort of thing that happens once in a while where the blame machine works back up through the chain of command. I hate to imagine the fallout from when that guy landed the plane in Red Square. Not many people on this blog actually drive large ships around, even Mini-P, but you’ll see a certain amount of google knowledge kick in anyway.
    The Chinese Surveillance systems are the interesting topic (how do they do it! they all look alike!). As that special magic of diversity kicks in you are bound to see governments put the screws down to properly control the population, but my bet is that it’ll happen everywhere as the cost falls to zero. It might be the case that our current religion of xenophilia is perfectly aligned with the ability to more accurately control a population over time.

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  10. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Sure Todd LGBTIISSTJ rules were the cause of the accident not the captain in charge.

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  11. Russ Avatar

    Paul,
    I said the Obama Administration which included a lot more progressives than the commander in chief who is ultimately responsible.

    Like

  12. Todd Juvinall Avatar
  13. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Which on of those letters are you Paul Emery?

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  14. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    So Russ the Obama administration is responsible for the rash of naval accidents not the naval officers in charge. Did I hear you right?

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  15. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    You are tone deaf Paul Emery.

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  16. Walt Avatar

    Paul. Letting John mcCain steer the ship named after him was a bad idea.
    Maybe the Russians hacked the ship’s computers?
    Here we go again. Paul defending “O”… Funny, whenever the subject of “O” rears it’s ugly head, Paul pipes up with his boilerplate response. ” I didn’t vote for him.”

    Like

  17. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Of course they are @ 441. Spending cuts and ship retirements while expanding the naval mission compounded with a rash of irrelevant tasking’s were a recipe for disaster. As was already noted 0 did not care about the warfighting skills. 😉

    Like

  18. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    So Obama’s fault not the officers in charge. Can you agree to that summary.

    Like

  19. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    It was an Amtrack train. Let’s assume it was an Amtrack ‘engineer’. Whoever was at the throttle or supposed to have been had better dream up one heck of an excuse. Other wise – off to prison. Inaugural run on that particular stretch. So extra attention would be in order. Instead the train blew right past the warning sign. We’ll find out after the NTSA gets through with its investigation. My personal experience with Amtrack has been that it is run by complete incompetents. I once waited for 3 hours at the Sacto station for the train our daughter was on. It turned out it was just east of Davis and no one at the Sac station had one clue about where it was or when it would arrive. My daughter was sure the next time would be better. She ended up having to get off the train somewhere below SLO, walk through the mud to a road nearby and wait for a bus to take her to the station. Her baggage arrived the next day and we were told to come and get it or it would be declared abandoned property. They did finally send it but we had to pay the UPS charge.

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  20. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Scott
    I played music on Amtrack trains and I can tell you some stories for sure. Much of the problem with Amtrak out of SF and on to Reno had to do with Union Pacific who own the tracks and controlled the traffic. They would routinely put us on a side track for an hour or more to allow a trainload of empty’s to pass us. Freight has priority on our rail lines which are not owned by Amtrak but by private entities such as Union Pacific, Burlington Northern, Southern Pacific etc. They own the tracks and control the traffic.
    What actually happened in Tacoma will be revealed so lets wait and see what the determination is.

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  21. Walt Avatar

    LOL!! Do you hear yourself Paul? “Trump colluded with the Russians!REMOVE him from office!!! Illegitimate President!!”
    with nothing as honest evidence.
    There is only TWO reasons the train didn’t make the turn.
    A broken rail, or speed. They KNOW how fast he was going.
    Yaa.. Let’s hold our opinions until all the facts are in.

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  22. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    What I’m saying Scott and this is based on nearly 2 years of working on the Reno Fun Train, which was run by Amtrak on UP tracks is that Amtrak has no control of the timetable. Union Pacific does and routinely bumps Amtrak to sidetracks at their whim causing them to be hours late.

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  23. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    that’s 20 years

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  24. Scenes from the Apocalypse Avatar
    Scenes from the Apocalypse

    from the OP:
    “one need only begin with the most obvious and telling factor – this was a government-run (Amtrak) train.”
    ’nuff said. God knows what the subsidy is on a Seattle to Portland run.
    It rings all the bells on Team Blue, though. Unionized employees, gubmint largesse, public transportation from Blue Nirvana One to Blue Nirvana Two. It’ll probably be the last place you see automation due to the threat of job loss. I expect it would be quite a bit cheaper to have taken the 80 passengers from one place to another with a 737, and with significantly less new infrastructure, but what’s the fun in that?
    I wouldn’t be surprised to see electric powered robot buses at some point, but hopefully only when they can be run at a profit.
    I should look this up, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire US railroad system would be made obsolete by robot freight carriers. The cases where the fuel mileage actually makes a slight difference aren’t dominant enough to overcome the cost of an additional transportation substrate. By removing drivers from the equation, one of the larger advantages to rail disappears.

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  25. Scenes from the Apocalypse Avatar
    Scenes from the Apocalypse

    hah…
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwyman/2017/09/26/railroads-versus-trucks-the-one-willing-to-invest-in-innovation-is-likely-to-win
    The funny thing is that it’ll fall along political lines. Team Blue loves them their trains, and Team Red not so much.
    I’m not sure why exactly, maybe it’s partly because of the Team Blue love for concentrating humans in urban centers.

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  26. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Paul – it was an Amtrack train and Amtrack employees at the Amtrack station. The train was 20 miles away for 3 hours and they had no clue where it was or what the problem was. UP didn’t cause them to sit there for 3 hours. You going to blame that on UP? The other time it was an Amtrack train and it broke down. Had nothing to do with UP. I’ve heard other horror stories from other folks. Amtrack is incompetent. It’s a govt run tax payer subsidised monopoly. End it or turn it over to private enterprise. And Amtrack is nothing compared to the completely criminal mis-named ‘HSR’ choo choo that you suckers in Cali will be stuck with. And you want the govt to have a monopoly on your health care. One can only wonder at the stupidity.

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  27. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Scenes – long haul transcontinental freight is still much cheaper by rail. It’s just a matter of BTUs expended per ton per mile. Can’t beat rail. But rail doesn’t go everywhere a truck can. So it’s a matter of at what point does the cargo get put on a truck and what percentage of the total miles the cargo travels is rail and what percentage is OTR. The trucks are gaining. The biggy in all of this is carbon based fuels. Crude oil and coal travel much cheaper per mile by train. This is one reason the Oracle Of Omaha has invested heavily in rail. And one reason he partly finances the forces aligned against the oil pipelines. The environmental crowd is just the side show.
    Trump did not stop the new regs against the independent truckers. I’ll try to ask my neighbor (owns his own tractor) what this will cost him. The new regs per usual hurt the small operators and favor the large companies. Any safety benefits are theoretical at this point.

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  28. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Scott
    Who ever owns the rails up there controls the movement on the tracks. Amtrak has no control wen the come or go. Although UP doesn’t own those tracks someone else does and it’s not Amtrak.
    UP gets its orders from headquarters in Omaha and nothing moves without their ok. Probably the tracks around Tacoma-Seattle are owned by Burlngton Northern. I’ll check.

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  29. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Burlington Northern merged with others and became this:
    On September 22, 1995, the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway merged with the Burlington Northern to create the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway. However, the merger was not official until December 31, 1996, when a common dispatching system was established, Santa Fe’s non-union dispatchers were unionized and the implementation of Santa Fe’s train identification codes systemwide.[5] On January 24, 2005, the railroad shortened its name to BNSF Railway.[
    They own the tracks and control traffic.

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  30. George Rebane Avatar

    Gentlemen – I really don’t think who owns the tracks, serves the drinks, or routes the trains. This bozo was on a single track heading into a 30mph curve doing 80mph. There was incompetence at least on one level, and perhaps more. Let’s cut the bullshit.

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  31. Walt Avatar

    Casey Jones, got hired again.

    Like

  32. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    George
    My response was to Scott who was complaining that Amtrak was responsible for delays. In my 20 years working on trains for a couple months a year virtually all delays were due to the owners of the tracks WP or UP not Amtrak. Yes, it is a different topic but I felt the record needed to be told on this since Amtrak takes the rap for late trains. Yes, once in a while they have a mechanical but not very often in my experience.
    I say probably it was operators incompetence but lets wait and see.

    Like

  33. Scenes from the Apocalypse Avatar
    Scenes from the Apocalypse

    ” long haul transcontinental freight is still much cheaper by rail. It’s just a matter of BTUs expended per ton per mile. ”
    Throw in an embedded system doing much more intelligent throttle management, ‘truck trains’, electric power to lesson the fuel cost of stop and go traffic, and I’ll bet that the difference becomes lessened (besides the obvious loss of so much transloading).
    The bet I’m making here is that if you combine less (not ‘no’) use of rail with the fixed overhead of maintaining a rail system, the spreadsheets for all of this change fairly radically. When a bunch of loads move to trucks that were previously on rail, the cost per unit for those left increases. No doubt the rail system will continue for loads that can’t be sent any other way, or for specialized lines (coal routes?), but it sure looks like the opposite of a growth industry to me.
    In terms of the bozo, it’s just another push towards automated transportation, trains in this case. Trains look like low-hanging fruit for 100% computer control.

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  34. Scenes from the Apocalypse Avatar
    Scenes from the Apocalypse

    Oh hell, now I’m going down the rat run of trying to find out how much energy is expended by a trains/trucks for air resistance vs. steel (or rubber) wheels. It’s probably something to do with an unladen swallow.
    re: Chinese surveillance.
    Heck, just imagine how perfect a job you can do in a modern US corporation, without all those pesky legalities to deal with. Every email, every character typed, every potty break, every bolt turned, and the magic isn’t the data collection but the parsing. Everyone will get a score somehow ginned up by the AI HR department. Raises and firings all done to achieve some mysterious company goals.

    Like

  35. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    So a guy that plays a musical instrument on a train is now a expert on trains? OK, wow!

    Like

  36. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    “My response was to Scott who was complaining that Amtrak was responsible for delays.”
    BS – Apparently Paul has even less intelligence than I gave him credit for. And that was a low bar to begin with. If you would be so kind as to actually read what I had written. Amtrack is incompetent. And now people are dead. Due to incompetence by Amtrack. Again. This isn’t the first time. Human lives are lost due to ongoing incompetence. By a govt run monopoly. Paul Emery – I swear by what is Holy, you are either the biggest liar on planet earth or possess an intellect below that of a fence post. What has happened to whatever God gave you for intelligence?
    Amtrack operated a train that crashed due to obvious and egregious error. Check out the Google Earth view. If this were an airline that killed as many people as Amtrack does, due to error, there would be folks in jail. Even a local mayor was worried that there would be trouble. I guess you just have to accept a few broken eggs to make an omelet. Anyone here want to volunteer to be a broken egg? Emery?

    Like

  37. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Scott
    For your reading pleasure
    I’m done with this conversation
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/amtrak-tracks-late-trains

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  38. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Conversation? You have to actually read what I write and make sense of it to have a ‘conversation’. The issue is not one of trains being late.

    Like

  39. Russ Avatar

    Factiods
    •Seventy percent of the state lives in nine of the 58 counties: Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Clara, Alameda, Sacramento and Contra Costa. Each of those counties has more than 1 million residents.
    •Five Southern California counties had the highest population gains — Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Orange and San Bernardino — which each added at least 20,000 residents and made up half of the state’s growth.
    •Thirteen counties had more deaths than births. Those were Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Inyo, Lake, Mariposa, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity and Tuolumne.
    •A quarter of the state lives in Los Angeles County, which has 10.2 million people. The least populous county is Alpine, which has 1,141 residents. Alpine had four births and 13 deaths in the past year.
    •Santa Clara, the most populated of the nine Bay Area counties, saw its population rise 0.65 percent to 1.9 million residents. San Francisco grew 0.91 percent to 880,000 residents.
    http://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-population-grows-to-nearly-40-million-12448737.php
    What to bet which Counties the welfare rolls increased? How about the five southern counties with the largest population gain?

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  40. Generalissmo Covfefe Avatar
    Generalissmo Covfefe

    Did Russ forget to mention this???
    ”’There was a net increase of 80,000 people who moved to California — including people moving from other countries and other states.
    Still, California has seen more people move to other states than move in from other states since 2000, with that trend continuing last year but at a slower pace. The net number of people who left for other states dropped from 164,000 in 2016 to 105,000 this year.”’

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  41. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Prior proper planning positively prevents piss poor performance –
    https://nypost.com/2017/12/22/train-track-was-never-supposed-to-have-deadly-curve/
    😉

    Like

  42. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Total humor – “- including people moving from other countries and other states.”
    ‘Other countries’ – gee, like maybe Mexico and some Central American countries?
    How many came from other states and how many came from south of the border? Nice try to lump the two together.
    I wonder what happened to the lefts’ constant drum beat of problems associated with over-population and AGW? That sure went away pretty fast. Another ‘deeply held belief’ that turned out to be as phoney as everything else the left claims to care about. And Moonbeam Brown telling the world they are all welcome in California, legal or not. Trump needs to completely open the border between CA and Mexico and put the fence up around CA. And don’t let any Dems or lefties out. No matter how much they cry.

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  43. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Well – gee whiz, Don – there are plenty of roads that have sharp curves that probably should have been engineered out, but what I do is slow down and the car goes around the curve just fine. The engineer in charge on the locomotive should have known that new route cold. You don’t have to steer or anything on a train. You just monitor the gauges and maintain a safe speed. That didn’t happen. We won’t know until they can complete the investigation. The curve didn’t suddenly jump out of the bushes. Trains are quite capable of slowing down and speeding back up.

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  44. George Rebane Avatar

    Generalissimo 523pm – you apparently did not read my commentary, nor the article linked. But that fewer that have left (so far) this year than in 2016 has a number of explanations. As our core populations become totally dumbbell shaped (welfare recipients vs coastal millionaires) you would expect to see the net outflow begin to diminish. It’s an odd factoid to celebrate given the steady demise of the state’s middle class.

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  45. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Don – Is this ‘settled science’? Does Algore know about this?

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  46. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    I think he did Scott, I heard he ordered skis for his gross polluting gulfstream! 😉

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  47. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Algore does not pollute!!!! He ‘offsets’ his inconvenient effluence with overall goodness and purity of thought and also indulgences paid to the First Church Of Righteous Indignation.

    Like

  48. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    First Church of Righteous Indignation! Good one! 😉

    Like

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