Sandbox – 27jun17

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Sandbox – 27jun17

27 June 2017

[Fresh sand for the free for all. Anyone want to review the latest clinical evidence that liberals/progressives process critical thought with different parts of the brain than do conservatives/libertarians? gjr]

Posted in Comment Sandbox

236 responses to “Sandbox – 27jun17”

fish

28 June 2017

Posted by: Paul Emery | 28 June 2017 at 04:59 PM
……still president Paul.

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George Rebane

28 June 2017

PaulE 459pm – The record of this forum reaches back over ten years. For most of this time you have predicted the looming demise of the Republican Party in these pages. Last year you were the penultimate fearless prognosticator of Hillary wiping the floor with Trump in the 2016 election. Now, still unabashed, you courageously have again lifted your lance and charged into the windmills of Trump’s presidency, predicting its premature termination becoming more imminent by the day. The vim and vigor you have shown to sally forth, undiminished by past performance, is truly remarkable. Given all this, can you share with the rest of us what keeps you going in a manner that brings shame to also-rans like the Energizer Bunny? We would all like to have such imperturbable confidence in ourselves – who wouldn’t?

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Don Bessee

28 June 2017

In a poll the po’ ol’ pollhead will never mention Trump did better than 0. Approve or disapprove of handling of the Russia thing. They tied on the negative rating and Trump did 4 points better in the people who thought Trump was handling the Russia thing better.
This sandbox sure got stinky fast. 😉

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Steve Frisch

28 June 2017

Posted by: George Rebane | 28 June 2017 at 06:10 PM
That’s not fair George, Paul can’t help it if as he kept getting cooler (I am going to miss the songs of Leonard Cohen) the country kept getting stupider.

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Don Bessee

28 June 2017

Wha???? @ 643. 😉

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John

28 June 2017

Pelline at 3:52. I have read on more than one blog that you did fetch coffee for Herb Caen. Are you saying that is not true?

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Jeff Pelline

28 June 2017

John,
And you were dumb enough to believe it? No, it’s not true. I was a reporter and editor at The Chronicle for 12 years. Herb fetched his own coffee.

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Todd Juvinall

28 June 2017

Steve Frisch | 28 June 2017 at 06:43 PM
The country sans liberals got way smarter. So you have my deepest sympathy for your loss.

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John

28 June 2017

Pelline, maybe I was mistaken. Maybe it was Ackerman. Did you fetch coffee for Jeff Ackerman?

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Gregory

28 June 2017

Jeff 3:52pm
“You sound like a real sad person. Belittling others to make yourself look smart. I hope you get some counseling some day.”
Back at you, Jeff. You’re ‘projecting’. That’s your inner Eric Cartman speaking… and you’ve been in denial about that for quite some time. I’ve heard from multiple sources of your yelling at and belittling subordinates at The Union, and you seem to be trying to do the same here.
Finally, “climate denier” is hate speech, and as long as you keep using a term intended for Neonazis pretending the Holocaust never happen for those of us who have studied the science for ourselves and come to a different conclusion, I’ll keep using negative hyperbole to describe your fawning over Caen and your glossy pennysaver with a minimum of content, just enough to hold the advertisements together.

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Gregory

28 June 2017

Paul 4:59pm
As the national Democratic Party solidified more and more to the left over the last 8 or so years, the Democratic Party itself got hollowed out, which is why the leadership is elderly and out of ideas. Octogenarians… and a whippersnapper or two in their 70’s and the fewest number of elected officials since the early Roaring 20’s, only without the likes of Kid Ory and Louis Armstrong providing the soundtrack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-e_qHR6xhY
Ory’s Muskat Ramble, one of my favorites.
That’s how far back the Democratic Party has fallen, Paul. You missed it entirely.

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ScenesFromTheApocalypse

29 June 2017

lol. I can feel the love.
re: Gregory@11:56PM.
I expect they’ll be fine. The highly self-interested groups that make up the coalition called the Democratic Party will just renegotiate a bit and adjust the catechism accordingly. Selling soap is a science and they’ll just change the formula a bit.
In other news, Illinois leads the way:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH-Z7-PMIwI&app=desktop

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ScenesFromTheApocalypse

29 June 2017

Those pesky Russians!
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2017/06/28/heh-mccaskill-paid-for-dinner-at-russian-ambassadors-residence-with-funds-from-undisclosed-foundation-n2348069

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Jeff Pelline

29 June 2017

Gregory,
You wrote this? “Finally, “climate denier” is hate speech, and as long as you keep using a term intended for Neonazis pretending the Holocaust never happen for those of us who have studied the science for ourselves and come to a different conclusion, I’ll keep using negative hyperbole to describe your fawning over Caen and your glossy pennysaver with a minimum of content, just enough to hold the advertisements together.”
You do need some counseling!

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Steve Frisch

29 June 2017

If Gregory applied the same logic to the holocaust that he applied to climate he would be a denier.

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ScenesFromTheApocalypse

29 June 2017

You have to admit that ‘climate denier’ is related to ‘holocaust denier’ is related to Hitler.
Personally, I think it’s a super clever bit of wordage. It fits into the idea that anyone who questions climate science (especially the political part) is a kind of Nazi. It’s rather like a mean nickname. People argue in symbols rather than from deep knowledge on a matter, so anything like that is quite effective.
I don’t much care about free magazines and so have no opinion on that.
In another matter, CNN and Russia:
https://imgur.com/cxMstTB

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Steve Frisch

29 June 2017

I would argue that the term “climate denier” or climate science denier is not only perfectly appropriate but it is the most accurate description partly because of its association with holocaust denial.
There’s a strong body of scientific research and cognitive research into the phenomenon of science denial which I believe extends to climate denial. It is the same phenomenon one sees in denial of evolution, non-science based attacks on vaccination, and faux science studies on Chemtrails and GMO’s.
Denial is about the rejection of observed science and the belief that contrarian points of view have MORE credibility than majority points of view within the scientific community specifically because they are contrarian. This is a phenomena specific to people predisposed to reject what are considered trusted sources because they have lost trust. They have lost their ability to independently of impartially analyze the science. To really understand it we need to go into the psychological research into what drives people to reject scientific based evidence. There is very strong cognitive research showing that we seek out data and positions that support our predetermined points of view then use the dissemination of that information as a tactic or persuasion technique.
In short, that is really no different than the holocaust denier that rejects first person observed evidence because they do not trust the sources, even if the sources are survivors of Buchenwald, American and British soldiers liberating camps, and even source documents from the mass murders themselves cataloguing the deaths.
Criticizing people for using the accurate and informative term ‘denial’ is nothing more than a diversionary tactic.

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Steve Frisch

29 June 2017

Of course part of it could just be that Gregory has a hard on for attacking people like Jeff or me because their lives are so shallow and joyless that the only way they can find solace is being big on social media because they are small and powerless in their own subconscious…kind of like our President.

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fish

29 June 2017

Posted by: Steve Frisch | 29 June 2017 at 08:01 AM
Your dedication to message discipline is truly an inspiration to us all.

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ScenesFromTheApocalypse

29 June 2017

re: SF@8:01AM
Well, I’m convinced. Thinking that weather models are crappy or that important causalities are missed is essentially the same as claiming that 12 million or so Jews, gypsies, gays, etc. weren’t gassed and shot.
And I always thought it was a loaded terminology specifically chosen because of the tie to inhumane actions. Go figure.
It’s a boring argument anyway since in venues like this it’s a few people who have gone to some trouble to look at the underlying science (with correct or incorrect conclusions) vs. people who can only use appeals to authority. It’s an oblique kind of discussion.

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ScenesFromTheApocalypse

29 June 2017

“Your dedication to message discipline is truly an inspiration to us all.”
C’est la vie.
The most depressing part is when people have exactly the kind of opinions that you expect, and those opinions extend to an incredibly wide family of topics.
You have to wonder about the validity of your thoughts, and when/where those were picked up, if the whole package fits into an archetype. I think that free will is not all that it’s cracked up to be.

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fish

29 June 2017

Posted by: ScenesFromTheApocalypse | 29 June 2017 at 08:29 AM
The most depressing part is when people have exactly the kind of opinions that you expect, and those opinions extend to an incredibly wide family of topics.
Depressing? Why?

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Steve Frisch

29 June 2017

Posted by: ScenesFromTheApocalypse | 29 June 2017 at 08:19 AM
There is a great article in The Guardian this morning deconstructing the contention by John Christy that climate models are crappy….but no, I am not equating critiquing climate models with murdering Jews, Gypsies, gays or opponents….I am saying that the mistrust that drives the holocaust denials is similar to the distrust that drives the climate denials, the cognitive roots are the same.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jun/28/climate-scientists-just-debunked-deniers-favorite-argument
Fortunately I do go to reading the underlying science, and talk regularly to people doing that science, so although I am not a scientist, at least I regularly go to the actual sources.

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Bill Tozer

29 June 2017

A now, a purse in the action.
https://www.facebook.com/RowdyConservatives/photos/a.217983685002343.55586.217926015008110/1117703388363697/?type=3&theater
My, my. He sends Punchy his regards. Always a silver lining.
https://www.facebook.com/RowdyConservatives/photos/a.217983685002343.55586.217926015008110/1117700525030650/?type=3&theater

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Steve Frisch

29 June 2017

“…if the whole package fits into an archetype…”
You mean like the ‘conservitarian’ or libertarian mindset? or the mindless distrust of all authority even if they may be correct archetype? or the anti-global archetype?

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Todd Juvinall

29 June 2017

“Denier” is a term out forth by liberals and is of no value or meaning to the debate of science. The facts and the acts of dishonest players like Frisch are rejected because they are not science. So a person cannot be defined as a denier if the underlying item is a lie.
In fact, the people like Frisch that elieve in the lie are as close to the fascists who murdered millions than any conservative. As Frisch is trying to force a lemming lifestyle on humans while conservatives are all about individual rights and freedom.

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Gregory

29 June 2017

Scenes, one of the largest and most savage of the Nazi death camps was in Nazi Croatia and more Serbs were exterminated there than Jews. Hate runs deep. Never forget.
Pelline and Frisch, thanks for staying true to form, and only the solidly left of center use “climate denier” as a cudgel.

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ScenesFromTheApocalypse

29 June 2017

“Scenes, one of the largest and most savage of the Nazi death camps was in Nazi Croatia and more Serbs were exterminated there than Jews. Hate runs deep. Never forget.”
That’s an interesting case, one more battle in a conflict that goes back a long way. Those fault lines, in this case a religious/ethnic/language one, can result in nasty situations. I’m going to have to assume that the Croatian Nazis are the equivalent to anyone who disagrees with Michael Mann.

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Steven Frisch

29 June 2017

If the shoe fits Goodknight I care not who made it for you. You so perfectly fit the cognitive studies of denier personality that it is the Croc you were born to wear.

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ScenesFromTheApocalypse

29 June 2017

“You mean like the ‘conservatarian’ or libertarian mindset? ”
Sure, why not? Everyone should question their own motives.

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Steven Frisch

29 June 2017

Ha😀 Lemming lifestyle; I have rarely encountered one more prepared to charge off the true believers cliff than you Todd. Any idiot could be elected claiming to be a Republican and you would follow.

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Todd Juvinall

29 June 2017

Oh Frisch, you crack me up. You are a dyed in the wool lemming and think group-think is the cat’s meow. You would probably carry the AK-to enforce your farces. I am all about personal freedom from people like you so I get why you are so defensive about your beliefs. Over the cliff there Steve.

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Todd Juvinall

29 June 2017

And you prove your anti-constitutional actions all the time. You moderate off your FB and personal pages anyone that disagrees with your fallacious beliefs. You survive there as a “echo chamber” with the other leftwing loons.

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Gregory

29 June 2017

Frisch linked to a Guardian story written by Dana Nuccitelli, who apparently entered UC Davis’ Physics PhD program and left with a Master’s, currently something of a Christian Scientist with appendicitis as he’s said to be working for a petrochemical concern somewhere in NorCal. A friend of yours, Steven?
So Steven, how does Allied liberators observing piles of emaciated bodies and industrial scale crematoria compare to your favored scientists saying, in effect, it’s gotten warmer since the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century and it must be CO2 because that’s the only explanation we have that fits the data?

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Paul Emery

29 June 2017

Trump
What a weird creep Even the Pepublicans don’t like him except, of course our own Todd.
Stephen, You’ve got to have sympathy for Todd. He had a little winning streak about 30 years ago but went on to be a failed developer and came in 5th I believe when he ran for the House. He’s part of Nevada County folklore a remnant of time gone by.
Here’s what the Republicans say about our idiot in chiefs latest sexist tweets.
Republicans in Congress called out President Trump on Thursday for a series of tweets they described as “beneath the dignity of your office.”
Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Maine Sen. Susan Collins — all Republicans — spoke out after Trump targeted Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski on Twitter. Trump called her “crazy” and criticized her appearance, saying he saw her “bleeding badly from a face-lift.” The tweet followed a trend of Trump singling out female reporters, often for their appearance.
“This is not okay,” Republican Kansas Rep. Lynn Jenkins said. “As a female in politics I am often criticized for my looks. We should be working to empower women.”

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Gregory

29 June 2017

Another view of the Santer paper Nuccitelli puts on a pedestal is here
https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/24/consensus-enforcers-versus-the-trump-administration/#more-2300
Curry puts it this way:

The paper confirms what John Christy has been saying for the last decade, and also supports the ‘denier’ statements made by Ted Cruz about the hiatus. The conclusion that The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty- first century results is low (between zero and about 9%) hinges on results from climate models that are not fit for such a task.
The bottom line is that there are 4 possibilities to explain the 21st century discrepancy between climate models and observations:
Errors in external forcing data (Santer et al’s preferred explanation)
Internal variability (which has been supported by numerous previous studies, including posts at CE)
Values of CO2 climate sensitivity that are too high (interesting new post on this over at ClimateAudit)
Missing physical processes in the climate models (e.g. solar indirect effects).
In my assessment, all 4 are in play; for the 21st century hiatus, my assessment is that #2 is the dominant factor (with supporting contributions from #3). The Santer et al. paper attempts to address #1 and #2 (unconvincing with respect to #2). But there is much that is unknown and uncertain here, with plenty of scope for rational disagreement on this topic.

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George Rebane

29 June 2017

Re SteveF’s 845am Guardian ref: “What any skeptical scientific mind should want to know is why they’re imperfect – what’s causing the difference between simulations and reality, and what can we learn from that? The answer in this case is that those forcings (solar activity, coal pollution, volcanic eruptions) and ocean cycles acted to temporarily slow the warming of atmospheric temperatures in a way that wasn’t included in the climate model simulation inputs. But that shouldn’t assuage our concerns about climate change – solar activity won’t offset long-term global warming; nor will volcanic eruptions, coal pollution, or ocean cycles. These are all short-term effects that all had a cooling effect over the past 20 years, during which time the planet nevertheless kept on warming due to the overpowering force of human carbon pollution.” (emphasis mine) How on earth could such a blanket conclusion be stated, since it is exactly that warming which is the sum and substance of the debate about climate models and data??! But we do note that now at least some of the true believers acknowledge the formerly denied recent cooling epoch.
– To begin, the author of the Guardian piece was not qualified to write an article on general circulation models (GCMs)
– ‘Forcings’ in a GCM embody current knowledge of climate impacting sub-processes like ocean mixing, heat transfer in soils, cloud formation, earth’s carbon cycle, solar wind’s effect on earth’s magnetic field, etc, etc. ALL of these are imperfectly known today, and are constantly being updated.
– In a complex system (e.g. earth’s climate) N ‘forcing’ factors have at least an of order N^2 interactions. Even less is known of such interactions.
– ANY MODEL with a sufficient number of degrees of freedom – e.g. all current GCMs – can be made to reproduce or fit any dataset, like an historical time series of temperatures, by twiddling with its plant transfer function and/or its multiple feedback gains (‘forcings’).
– The scientific verity of any model is in its ability to predict the future (i.e. experiments yet to be done) to a useful level of accuracy. Model accuracy is measured by the statistical variability of its outputs when compared to realworld measurements.
– The accuracy of GCMs has not improved over the last 30 years due to a number of factors, the updating (twiddling?) of forcing functions being just one of these.
– Beyond the added debates about which datasets to use and their reliability, the utility of current GCM outputs is a political assessment and not a scientific one.
– So far the IPCC-blessed GCMs have at best been twiddled to fit historical data, which fittings are still a matter of vigorous scientific debate.
– Climate science is immature and therefore occupies a leading edge in human knowledge. Historically, claims of broad consensus on leading edge science have always been wrong.

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Todd Juvinall

29 June 2017

The Alt-left and their media lackey’s are all aflutter that Trump said something about Mika and her facelift. The left is at every microphone whining that Trump is just a terrible person for his rweets on this and other things. Now, why would they be upset since they have set the low bar for the country with their lefty pressers every day. They call the Repiblicans murderers and killers and all other forms of names for the healthcare bill proposals. I mean, do the left and the dems think people parse that and pay no attention to their inflammatroy language? I say the left is far more guilty of wrecking the langauge than any R.

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Todd Juvinall

29 June 2017

And now we see a Playboy “journalist” chewing on Ms. Huckabee at the daily presser. He was so upset he called her a “bully”. I imagine he peed his pants in such fear of that lady . When I was a kid a bully was someone who threatened to physically beat yopu up. Now the liberals say a woman not taking your crap is a bully. You cannot make this stuff up.

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Gregory

29 June 2017

For the record, I expect it’s #3 that is dominant in Curry’s list, that the models that code up expectations that climate sensitivity to CO2 is from 2C to 4.5C for a doubling while thermodynamic calculations from actual data suggests something closer to 1.3 degrees C. Small compared to natural variations, no tipping points as they require strong positive feedbacks that aren’t expected from CO2 sensitivities above 2degrees C.
CO2 sensitivity is logarithmic and self limiting… CO2 only absorbs in a narrow band of the infrared spectrum and existing CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) already absorb something more than half of that IR emitted by the earth… so while the first 1.3C of AGW would be at about 600ppm, there really couldn’t be more than about 2C warming worst case if we could even extract and burn enough fossil fuels to push CO2 further.
Mammals evolved in a 2000ppm CO2 atmosphere something like 250 million years ago. 400ppm is nothing new or worth committing economic seppuku to suppress.

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Gregory

29 June 2017

GR 1047
Regarding models and the ability to fiddle parameters to make it do what you expect. the most famous pronouncement on this was “A turning point in Freeman Dyson’s life occurred during a meeting in the SPring of 1953 when Enrico Fermi criticized the complexity of Dyson’s model by quoting Johnny von Neumann [1] `With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk’”
This was demonstrated by a few German wags with time on their nearly a decade ago:
“Drawing an elephant with four complex parameters” https://publications.mpi-cbg.de/Mayer_2010_4314.pdf
And yes, they add a fifth and make the trunk wiggle.

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Mary Wanna

29 June 2017

Mrs Trump wants to take on cyber bullying as her ’cause’. Her husband is the most famous cyber bully of all time. Alternative fact reality strikes again.

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Gregory

29 June 2017

Frisch wrote a couple of howlers on Earl Crabb’s blog that led RL to cut me off.
One was this:

Greg Goodknight says:
May 13, 2017 at 5:42 pm
I see they saved the best for last in that report you found so interesting, Steve, an essay on page 18 by that famed scientist Al Gore on the challenges of climate change.
You write “And now we get to the part that my friends on the right fail to get—worshiping at the alter [sic] of Smith, Basiat, Hayek and Laffer is going to kill us if you are not careful—you are part of the world and there is no safe place for you to retreat to”.
You’re projecting again, Steve. Personally, I don’t worship at any altar, but I have studied enough math, science and philosophy to recognize a steaming heap of self serving crap when you’ve served it up. Leftovers again?
Mother Earth is running the experiment and some of us will be wrong once the data is in. I fully expect that to be you and 90+% of the current population of Planet ‘Frisco.
Steve Frisch says:
May 14, 2017 at 3:35 am
I almost added a caveat to this little essay, that I fully expected a small minded troll who views the world through a lens of self appointed intellectual superiority and a single minded jihadist focus on climate change, would find the spelling error. Oh, BTW, “worshiping at the altar of Smith…” wasn’t referring to you. I was really thinking way behind the tiny world of Goodknight.
I am amazed every time you comment at just how small you are.
[The blog owner then stepped in to find fault only with me:]
rl crabb says:
May 14, 2017 at 5:29 am
Greg, you well on your way to purgatory if you can’t keep the personal insults out of your argument. Last warning.
[I called RL on his double standards:]
Greg Goodknight says:
May 14, 2017 at 9:14 am
RL, that 5:29 am warning of your would have been more effective had there truly been a personal insult in my 5:42 pm, or had there been anything but personal insults in Frisch’s 3:35 am.
Steve Frisch says:
May 14, 2017 at 9:25 am
There were absolutely no “personal insults” in my 3:35 am post. I never pointed to any specific ‘person’….

One might question why I shouldn’t have interpreted “small minded troll”, “the tiny world of Goodknight” or “I am amazed every time you comment at just how small you are” as personal insults targeting only me.
and then RL blocked me, banishing me to Todd’s blog which I don’t post at and rarely read.
I’ve come to the conclusion that, with the written word, RL Crabb tunes out anything that he can dismiss as a “squabble”, expecting the “geniuses of the left and right”, as he recently wrote, who dare to think original thoughts (whether they are original or not) to sort it out and come to an agreement before bothering him.

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Walt

29 June 2017

For our trumpeters of socialized medicine. Yup EU healthcare is great.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/06/29/eu-court-terminal-baby-must-die-despite-parents-funding-extra-care/
And this is what LIBS what for all of us.
Almost like trying to pay a Dr. here in Ca. (I know. I tried. He had to get the VA’s permission to treat me. And what a battle that was)

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Todd Juvinall

29 June 2017

Gregory | 29 June 2017 at 01:14 PM
I have been blocked from the cartoon dude’s blog for years just for defending myself from him and his pals Frisch etal. My sister went to school with RL and says he was a dick then too. Underavciever and nasty. The kind of person that sneaks up behind you, smacks you and runs away cryng he is being attacked. So nothing new from the libs like RL.
So Gregory gets a taste of what I have dealt with since I was Supervisor thirty years ago. Paul Emery and his minions would go door to door seeking votes for their candidates and use every vile lie they could think up about me to gain a edge. Well, I beat them both times and they are still crying. And now Paul Emery is following me around Nevada City, (which I hardly attend) trying to gain some purient satisfaction about my activities. I did run into him a couple of times over the years though. Both times I had a real beautiful woman on my arm and he could not stop staring and drooling. He is a loser with the gals and lives his fantasies through me and others. Sad.

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George Boardman

29 June 2017

Walt, if it’s from Breitbart, it must be true.
If the Repubs get their way on the health care bill, states will have to decide whether to treat the poor or keep the elderly in nursing homes. Either way, people will be dying before their time.
But you won’t read that on Breitbart.

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Walt

29 June 2017

Are there any photos of the protests when buggy whip makers became a thing of the past?
http://dailycaller.com/2017/06/29/nyt-reporters-stage-walkout-chant-no-editors-no-peace-over-staff-cuts-video/
Then again, LIB news in print has become their own worst enemy.

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George Boardman

29 June 2017

Todd: To paraphrase Ann Coulter, you’d endorse Communism if Trump did.

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Walt

29 June 2017

Face it Boardman, Gov. has no place trying to run health care. Gov. destroys any private business it touches.
Big government couldn’t even run a whore house and turn a profit. Need a reminder? The FEDS took over the Mustang Ranch and ran it into the ground. Yet you feel they should be in charge of healthcare?
The VA SUCKS! They won’t even follow their own rules.
Since your “old”,and long in the tooth, even with Covered Ca. your on the “little as possible” treatment list.

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Todd Juvinall

29 June 2017

GeorgeB, no I am not like you. I have my own mind.

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